Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

Trade or Keep Marner?

  • Trade Marner

    Votes: 420 67.5%
  • Keep Marner

    Votes: 183 29.4%
  • Other (explain)

    Votes: 19 3.1%

  • Total voters
    622

thusk

Registered User
Jul 15, 2011
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You make a good point about Defence being important, it's not all about the numbers etc. but still, the problem for the team (not just Marner) is that we can't buy a goal when we need one. Like someone made a point how well we played defensively in game 7 vs MTL which is missing the point - we went down 1-0, then 2-0 - we needed a freaking goal!

Playing good + good goaltending = sure if youre playing a great game and your goalie was trash, doesn't help

Game #7 75 % of the time team scoring first winning, so yes its important to dont give that goal especially the way Campbell did

Last 2 year game #7
5 of 9 winning team scored 2 goal or less in regulation (56% of game) and only 2 time team allowing more than 2 goal and still winning... so yes defensive game still even more important than offensive whatever what was result vs mtl
 

Captain Crunch

Registered User
Mar 31, 2019
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It means that people take the raw points number and expect it to be a perfect representation of a player's offensive quality, impact, ability to generate offense, and overall performance, when it's not.
There are two things that determine raw points:
1. There are internal factors, which is what the player themselves are bringing to the equation to get the end results.
2. Then there are external factors. These are the situations that a player experiences that either benefit or hinder their raw production.
There are some external factors that we need to account for in any situation, like ice time, linemate quality, etc.
But then there are other external factors. Ones that over a significant sample size in the regular season, tend to even out, because you're facing a similar variety of different teams and goalies and performances and streaks and injuries as everybody else over a massive period of time where there are enough rare goal events to attribute cause. It makes point production more viable as a proxy for the offensive impact and performance an individual is bringing, as long as we account for the external factors that remain disparate like ice time, so we tend not to think about it when discussing production.

But in the playoffs, those external factors don't even out. Players are facing vastly different teams, with vastly different defenses, and vastly different goalies, having vastly difference performances and streaks, and experiencing vastly difference injuries, over a tiny sample of games within a couple week period. For some reason, we acknowledge that point production over small sample sizes in the regular season can't be used to completely alter the perception of players, but we take 4-7 game samples as the end-all, be-all in the playoffs and make wild declarations about players. I get that the playoff production is more emotionally meaningful to fans, and so we put so much more weight on it, but it being important to us doesn't change how production actually works. It's actually less representative than the regular season relative to sample size without adding context into the discussion that nobody seems to want to do.

So when you compare across teams and say our player got less playoff production than that player, it doesn't automatically mean that our player was performing worse.
It might be that our player was performing worse, but it also might be a big difference in external factors that aren't being accounted for.

If one player faces a bad defensive team that has their starter injured, and they put up big numbers against a goalie performing below league average, and then one player faces a top defensive team playing in front of a generational goalie having one of the best performances of all-time, and they put up smaller numbers, which player performed better?

Was the first player actually better at generating offense, or was the first player just in an easier situation to produce? If the production in that small 4-7 game sample relative to the other player is opposite of what a massive 200-game, more equal situation sample says, which should we trust to give a more accurate representation of the player?

All playoff games are equally important. Winning in one doesn't mean more than winning in another. Scoring in general tends to decrease as series extend, because refs get scared to make calls, players get injured, and players get increasingly cautious of making a mistake, which usually means lower event hockey and less critical mistakes. That's not unique to Marner.

The issue is that they do do all of these things that you say. They take accountability. They say they need to be better. They look absolutely devastated after losing.
But if you want to see the bad in people, or remember certain moments that you have construed a certain way, you'll always be able to.

Is that even true? According to who? Lots of players didn't win a playoff round through age 24. We also put way too much emphasis on round, with again, zero consideration of what we were facing and what we were experiencing. If you put massive emphasis on playoffs determining the quality of a team, then losing to a Cup finalist in 4 of the past 5 years should mean something.

It's worth exchanging a star for different allocation if that different allocation provides more overall impact, but that's not the realistic case here, especially for Matthews/Marner.
And we don't have any massive holes that we need to tear down our core to fix.
What massive holes do you think we need 11m to fix, and how would we use it to improve our team more than the lost impact of the player we lost?
So now you’re lumping Matthews and Marner with “lots of other players”. I thought you said that they deserve every nickel they have gotten? Since they have been earning so much, you can’t just lump them in with all those other players, can you? You talk about raw points, external factors, among other things. All of these apply to both teams in a series, do they not? It’s strange that these “factors” supposedly only affect the Leafs.
And as far as it being a small sample size, that’s on each team‘s luck, desire, etc. to determine how many playoff games they play. Also, since 2017 these two have played roughly a total of 46 playoff games. That’s not a small sample size. And different players have come and gone, but we can say that about every team.
You continue to mention about one team facing a “generational goalie who’s having a performance of a lifetime”. Again, funny how it’s always the Leafs who face this goalie! Has this happened in every playoff series? Shouldn’t our star players be able to solve at least one of these goalies and win a series?
All playoff games are important, but the game that gets you your 4th win in a series, that would be the most important one.
Could you provide a link that shows either one of them putting the blame squarely on their shoulders after losing a playoff game, or even better, a series? I’m not saying there isn’t one, it’s just that I don’t remember hearing them ever say it.
It’s okay, I guess, to lose to the Cup finalist in 4 of the last 5 years, it’s just that it has always been in the first round.
Were we a top 5 defensive team this past year? If so, why didn’t we look like it in the playoffs? We certainly didn’t do a good job of getting the puck out of our end. We were near the bottom in scoring from our defence. Maybe Klingberg will help remedy that, but it’s a gamble.
I will admit that you know everything and I know nothing if the Leafs can advance to the Cup finals while paying at least 3 forwards over $11 million. I really can’t see that happening for at least two more years, when JT’s contract comes off the books. But then there might only be two. And remember, I said 3 “forwards”.
 
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Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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Playing good + good goaltending = sure if youre playing a great game and your goalie was trash, doesn't help

Game #7 75 % of the time team scoring first winning, so yes its important to dont give that goal especially the way Campbell did

Last 2 year game #7
5 of 9 winning team scored 2 goal or less in regulation (56% of game) and only 2 time team allowing more than 2 goal and still winning... so yes defensive game still even more important than offensive whatever what was result vs mtl
I know the popular narrative is to blame Campbell but I don't buy it. Sometimes the goalie bails out the rest of the team, and Campbell did that for us from time to time so when he f***s up, it's time to bail him out and if he gives up a bad goal, it's time to pour on the offence and put the puck in the net. Scoring one goal isn't going to be enough most of the time, simple as that so if you only score 1 goal, don't complain about goaltending.
 

Mess

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Feb 27, 2002
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Obviously, but you can't raise people up to the highest level of adoration without at least keeping perspective on their known flaws. Ignoring them is dishonest.
3 players making $11 mil each and combined for $33 mil of a $83 mil cap score 1 goal in 5 games, as Leafs nearly get swept in round #2.

vs Florida
Marner 5 games 1-2-3 points & Matthew 5 games 0-2-2 points & Tavares 5 games 0-1-1 points ... Combined 1 goal 5 assists 6 points.

Solution: Common sense says trade one of the $11 mil players for more depth and better supporting and surrounding players.
Problem: All 3 have full NMC contracts and are not going anywhere, signed sealed and delivered.

Competent new GM solution "If you can't beat em join em".

Sign Tyler Bertuzzi for $5.5 mil (= 1/2 AAV of 3 X $11 mil players)

vs. Florida
Games: 7 Goals: 5 Assists: 5 Points: 10 >>> All 3 NMC players combined vs Florida last year. So for $5.5 mil = 5 goals and 10 points & for 3 players and $33 mil = 1 goals and 6 points.

In Toronto they pay their top players amongst the highest in the NHL and then come playoff time its the supporting cast and depth that is expected to carry the team to victory, when the stars go AWOL.
 
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thusk

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Jul 15, 2011
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I know the popular narrative is to blame Campbell but I don't buy it. Sometimes the goalie bails out the rest of the team, and Campbell did that for us from time to time so when he f***s up, it's time to bail him out and if he gives up a bad goal, it's time to pour on the offence and put the puck in the net. Scoring one goal isn't going to be enough most of the time, simple as that so if you only score 1 goal, don't complain about goaltending.

Last 3 years, winning team in #7 game allowed by game an average of 1,45 goal. So if your considerate it, thats meaning youre allowing 1st goal and youre already in big trouble
 

ULF_55

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Feb 27, 2002
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If it makes sense you ask him to waive if a better player wants to move to the Leafs.

Just to be clear:

1690921401905.png
 

RoadWarrior

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Mar 4, 2002
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Marner is a complete enigma. Fantastic regular season and first couple of playoff games then completely disappears once the checking gets tougher and the pressure is on to win.

The problem might be just as much Toronto as it is Marner. The danger in trading him is that he could find his game elsewhere in the playoffs and make the leafs look like fools for trading him or not re-signing him.

His friendship with Matthews only complicates matters.

Hopefully Bert gives him some cahones.
 

TimeZone

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Based on his wedding footage, he most certainly hasn't been putting in any time in the weight room this offseason.

Of all of the players on the team, I genuinely get the sense that Marner cares the least.
 
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Cynical

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Aug 23, 2014
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Trade. This team needs a scorer in a different archetype than what they have in their two scorers today. They need a young power forward to add to the guys they brought in.
 

TimeZone

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That’s certainly the dumbest thing I’ve read all day. Congrats

I automatically knew it was going to be a worthless one liner that added absolutely nothing to the discussion, failed to address anything in the post quoted the second I seen your username pop into my notifications.
 
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Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
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Based on his wedding footage, he most certainly hasn't been putting in any time in the weight room this offseason.

Of all of the players on the team, I genuinely get the sense that Marner cares the least.
That little f***er. The least he could of done the last 2 months is put on 20lbs of muscle at the gym. I mean if he were really caring, he would have moved up 30 lbs. A pound of muscle every 2 or so days would have done it. So soft and uncaring. I think he needs to get cancelled.
 

TimeZone

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That little f***er. The least he could of done the last 2 months is put on 20lbs of muscle at the gym. I mean if he were really caring, he would have moved up 30 lbs. A pound of muscle every 2 or so days would have done it. So soft and uncaring. I think he needs to get cancelled.

I highly doubt any insights into his work out habits can be gleaned from his wedding footage

It's been 7 YEARS and the guy is still built like Bambi, horrified to go into corners when the real season begins.

Expect more figurines and muffin shots from Mr. "We just have to come back pissed off next year" come playoff time again next year.

You see all of these offseason clips over the years of MacKinnon, Crosby and other superstars across the league putting in all the hard work and getting rewarded for it, from the quotes to coming back year in and year out with the same obvious weaknesses it's painfully obvious our core just plain doesn't care to the extent of comparably paid superstars around the league.

10 lbs of lean mass on his 170 lb frame would make a significant difference visually.
 
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Arzak

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Mar 27, 2019
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Big majority of people taught tkachuk vs huberdeau, weagar and a 1st pick was a huge trade for calgary a year a go and was making calgary much better...

1 year later the same trade is considerate like a total steal by Florida...

Sometime when you thinking you will be better, you just being worst...

I just dont know if leafs fans just realize everything marner was doing under to radar...

Nobody was producing at higher rate at 5v5/ 60 played than marner in last 3, he one of 10 beat defensive foward in NHL.

Everyone blaming marner for lack of playoff stats... but tell me whos was the 1st guy always to come back in defensive coverage to help his D? Who was the guy who always came back lower to carry the puck to help leafs d who struggling in transition?

If marner would cheating more offensivly exemple like whats nylander did, did he raise his offensive production? Yes its sure but it its a thing who will make leafs better at the end... exemple scoring an additionnal 4 goal vs tampa but allowing 7 additionnal goal to kucherov line because youre cheating really hard, did that making you a better team harder to beat? The answer is an easy NO

When Boston won his cup, Bergeron impact offensivly alone was not much higher than Marner
...he was fantastic because of his 200 feet game... crosby last 2 cup, was not really amaizing offensivly... oreilly when stl won it, was not much better offensivly... but they all made a lot of little thing everywhere to help his team.

On their cup run
Oreilly goal rate was 0,31/ gm
Crosby last 2...1 was at 0,25 and the 2nd at 0,33
Bergeron was at 0,26

Marner was at 0,27 last 2 playoff run and


Honestly Marner is in my mind the best leafs player and everyone want his head because he was playing the right way to help his team without constantly cheating in the offensive side to boost his individual stat... so we ask for his head... its not how leafs will win anything thinking that way.


Bergeron played true shut-down 2nd line center back then with Krejci's line focusing more on scoring

Marner is not playing the same role, but we like to pretend he does when he's not scoring
 

Cynical

Registered User
Aug 23, 2014
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You mean Matthew Knies? :)
Yes they need an established power forward like that so that this is the norm on the Leafs rather than the exception. We have seen enough times where bringing in one player who plays that style typically just changes that player into a soft player rather than transform the entire team..
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
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It's been 7 YEARS and the guy is still built like Bambi, horrified to go into corners when the real season begins.

Expect more figurines and muffin shots from Mr. "We just have to come back pissed off next year" come playoff time again next year.

You see all of these offseason clips over the years of MacKinnon, Crosby and other superstars across the league putting in all the hard work and getting rewarded for it, from the quotes to coming back year in and year out with the same obvious weaknesses it's painfully obvious our core just plain doesn't care to the extent of comparably paid superstars around the league.

10 lbs of lean mass on his 170 lb frame would make a significant difference visually.
He is 181 lbs. OK now? Same weight as Kucherov.
 

TimeZone

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He is 181 lbs. OK now? Same weight as Kucherov.

By the same website who lists Johnny Gaudreau at 5'9? Wouldn't put a ton of stock into its listings

Even then, Kucherov is at least an inch and a half shorter than Mitch, significantly thicker & unlike Mitch actually plays with an edge to his game.

Did I mention he's also a significantly better player?
 
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thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
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Seems about right.
I would have pegged about 25% of this board having a clue. :thumbu:

He is an overpaid jitterbug that has slow acceleration and is a no show with no physical presence in high stakes PO games. He can't score, does not score in high pressure situations and is overpaid. That much is clear and it's all facts really.

I'll skip the dishes though, just like Marner does in high stakes PO games. You get no dishes, no goals either.

For what you get when you need him most I would rather stick the 11million in a clown canon and blow it in the air downtown.
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
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By the same website who lists Johnny Gaudreau at 5'9? Wouldn't put a ton of stock into its listings

Even then, Kucherov is at least an inch and a half shorter than Mitch, significantly thicker & unlike Mitch actually plays with an edge to his game.

Did I mention he's also a significantly better player?
You can mention what you like seeing you don't seem to care about not having a clue about the most basic things.
Marner is 1 inch taller. That is it. A significantly better player is he?
Screenshot_20230801_202231_Chrome.jpg
Screenshot_20230801_202203_Chrome.jpg
 

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