Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[Stephen]

With a grand total of 3 even strength points, Marner is tied for 186th in the league. While playing on a line with Matthews.

.. Not looking good for Gretzky 2.0. Definitely looking sneaky bad.

Marner's 7 points this October is worse than the 9 he had last year, but he scored 20 in November. 2 years ago he had 3 points in all of Octotber and 16 in November. Let's see if that pattern continues...

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Honestly, at this point give me the cap space.

Buddy has packed it in.

 

[6ix]

Having a no trade clause makes it’s borderline impossible to trade him, which is unfortunate.

 

[thusk]

For everyone whos claiming loud to see marner being trade. Stats since 2021q

just some funny stats for you

% of time player had been on the ice for leafs goal
Matthews 42 %
Marner 37 %
Nylander 34%
Tavarea 30%

% time on the ice goal against
Nylander 37%
Tavares 36%
Matthews 34%
Marner 33 %

Differential
Matthews +8%
marner +4%
nylander -3%
tavares -6%

Playoff
Goal for

Marner 47%
Matthews 40%
Nylander 33%
Tavares 30%

Goal against
Nylander 42%
Matthews/jt 33%
Marner 29%

Diffential
Marner +18%
Matthews+7 %
Tavares -3%
Nylander -9%


The goal at the end come playoff time is scori g more goal than your opponent or allowing less goal than what you score.

Thats exactly whats marner did last 2 plaoff. The funny thing is every one blaming Marner to be not enough good and Nylander being fantastic come playoff time and think leafs will become better by keeping nylander and trading Marner

 

[Gary Nylund]

For everyone whos claiming loud to see marner being trade. Stats since 2021q

just some funny stats for you

% of time player had been on the ice for leafs goal
Matthews 42 %
Marner 37 %
Nylander 34%
Tavarea 30%

% time on the ice goal against
Nylander 37%
Tavares 36%
Matthews 34%
Marner 33 %

Differential
Matthews +8%
marner +4%
nylander -3%
tavares -6%

Playoff
Goal for

Marner 47%
Matthews 40%
Nylander 33%
Tavares 30%

Goal against
Nylander 42%
Matthews/jt 33%
Marner 29%

Diffential
Marner +18%
Matthews+7 %
Tavares -3%
Nylander -9%


The goal at the end come playoff time is scori g more goal than your opponent or allowing less goal than what you score.

Thats exactly whats marner did last 2 plaoff. The funny thing is every one blaming Marner to be not enough good and Nylander being fantastic come playoff time and think leafs will become better by keeping nylander and trading Marner

I assume these are even strength numbers, so basically another way of expressing +- stats?

If so then I wouldn't wouldn't read much into this, it's been known for a long time that +- stats can be very misleading.

 

[thusk]

I assume these are even strength numbers, so basically another way of expressing +- stats?

If so then I wouldn't wouldn't read much into this, it's been known for a long time that +- stats can be very misleading.

Yeah im agree +/- is not the best stats but when your in the ice for half of even strenght goal for and despite marmer facing the hardest opposition on defensive side, leafs allowing less goal when hes on the ice... probably hes doing something great somewhere

a player making everyone around him better, it was look like... a team who become better instantly when a player jump in the ice scoring more goal and allowing less goal

 

[joepeps]

1. He scores when it doesnt matter often
2. He plays well again shit team that are soft
3. Has no pushback when going get tough
4. The biggest issue is his attitude and his ability to never take criticism. Either shut up and dont speak or say you have to play better and the team played shit and needs to be better. He always has an excuse and says that they played well but the bounces didnt go their way? Really? There was 0 compete out there...

 

[BrannigansLaw]

It’s not even the slow start. That’s normal for him. I feel like his game needs to change somewhat to be effective in the playoffs. None of his usual regular season dipsy doodles work in the postseason and once you take away his space he’s about as useful as Domi/Bertuzzi.

Personally I think he’s the one that needs to go based on the above as he wont adapt and the salary demands for his next contract.

 

[Arzak]

For everyone whos claiming loud to see marner being trade. Stats since 2021q

just some funny stats for you

% of time player had been on the ice for leafs goal
Matthews 42 %
Marner 37 %
Nylander 34%
Tavarea 30%

% time on the ice goal against
Nylander 37%
Tavares 36%
Matthews 34%
Marner 33 %

Differential
Matthews +8%
marner +4%
nylander -3%
tavares -6%

Playoff
Goal for

Marner 47%
Matthews 40%
Nylander 33%
Tavares 30%

Goal against
Nylander 42%
Matthews/jt 33%
Marner 29%

Diffential
Marner +18%
Matthews+7 %
Tavares -3%
Nylander -9%


The goal at the end come playoff time is scori g more goal than your opponent or allowing less goal than what you score.

Thats exactly whats marner did last 2 plaoff. The funny thing is every one blaming Marner to be not enough good and Nylander being fantastic come playoff time and think leafs will become better by keeping nylander and trading Marner

Wow we knew Mitch was on the ice when he collected his secondary assists

You found another way to ignore actual game on ice while milking his mandatory assists again. Good job.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yeah im agree +/- is not the best stats but when your in the ice for half of even strenght goal for and despite marmer facing the hardest opposition on defensive side, leafs allowing less goal when hes on the ice... probably hes doing something great somewhere

a player making everyone around him better, it was look like... a team who become better instantly when a player jump in the ice scoring more goal and allowing less goal

He's a great player most of the time. I watch most of the games and don't need any stats for that, literally my only problem with him is that small handful of games where he has faded away so often. Someone posted the numbers - his production in games 5-7 in a playoff series falls off a cliff. And I'd put game 3 against Florida in that "clutch game" category as well - lost that one and the season is as good as over and he played so badly, it's hard to even put into words.

I know it's a small sample size, like about 20 games or so over the last 6 years. Like literally if he played like the superstar that he's paid to be instead of a passenger for like even say 10 out of those 20 at key times, I'd have no problem with him whatsoever and I also believe that would have made enough of a difference that we'd have won a couple more playoff series by now.

Maybe it's just co-incidence that it's the biggest games where he falls off, I don't think so though. I think the problem is between the ears and to be fair, he's not the only one, the whole team has a history of coming up way short in the biggest moments. Anyhow, it is what it is, we can't trade him, I'm sure we'll resign him, nothing to do but hope that he and the rest of them (I'm looking at you Auston) figure it out at some point but I also fear this year might be our last shot - I wouldn't be shocked it Nylander took his talents elsewhere next summer and it's hard to see a path to the cup without him and whatever assets we invest in trying to win this season.

 

[thusk]

Wow we knew Mitch was on the ice when he collected his secondary assists

You found another way to ignore actual game on ice while milking his mandatory assists again. Good job.

You can make everyone better without making a single offensive play... just exemple by making an defensive play and bring the puck back on your side...

Raise of possesion ice time+ reducing time without puck = more goal scored and less allowed

He's a great player most of the time. I watch most of the games and don't need any stats for that, literally my only problem with him is that small handful of games where he has faded away so often. Someone posted the numbers - his production in games 5-7 in a playoff series falls off a cliff. And I'd put game 3 against Florida in that "clutch game" category as well - lost that one and the season is as good as over and he played so badly, it's hard to even put into words.

I know it's a small sample size, like about 20 games or so over the last 6 years. Like literally if he played like the superstar that he's paid to be instead of a passenger for like even say 10 out of those 20 at key times, I'd have no problem with him whatsoever and I also believe that would have made enough of a difference that we'd have won a couple more playoff series by now.

Maybe it's just co-incidence that it's the biggest games where he falls off, I don't think so though. I think the problem is between the ears and to be fair, he's not the only one, the whole team has a history of coming up way short in the biggest moments. Anyhow, it is what it is, we can't trade him, I'm sure we'll resign him, nothing to do but hope that he and the rest of them (I'm looking at you Auston) figure it out at some point but I also fear this year might be our last shot - I wouldn't be shocked it Nylander took his talents elsewhere next summer and it's hard to see a path to the cup without him and whatever assets we invest in trying to win this season.

I understand it and some time i would like to see a little bit more from him.. he can be a little be sloopy in the offensive zone or with the puck but you will never see marner taking a shift off defensive side. Why Matthews was struggling when he was playing with nylander in playoff but not with Marner? With nylander he was unable to move out of defensive zone but marner making just so much defensive play than Matthews had the puck muxh more time on his stick.

You will never see marner cheating to get a free breakaway or 2v1 but he will aleays be the 1st guy to play in his own zone and help his D to make play

I guarantee you playing in a team with player playing the marner way will be much more better than a team playing nylander way...

Its like comparing boston way to edmonton way

 

[AuraSphere]

He needs to be gone - I would rather use that cap hit for a top pairing dman and get a grinding/heart type player for the top six

 

[francis246]

It’s not even the slow start. That’s normal for him. I feel like his game needs to change somewhat to be effective in the playoffs. None of his usual regular season dipsy doodles work in the postseason and once you take away his space he’s about as useful as Domi/Bertuzzi.

Personally I think he’s the one that needs to go based on the above as he wont adapt and the salary demands for his next contract.

The opportunity for him to be traded left when Dubas was canned. Dubas was legit going to trade Marner the more I look into it and rehash everything that happened.

Dubas is vocal about being open to making a trade. Then all of a sudden he’s not passionate about being in this market?

What I believe happened towards the end there was, Dubas had a plan to trade Marner before the NMC kicked in and shake up the core if they failed in the playoffs. I believe that plan was then nixed by Shanny and MLSE board. Mix that in with Dubas wanted an extension a year ago, didn’t get it and now maybe his plan is shut down. Nail in the coffin. I think that was the last straw and enough for him to begin his plan for more autonomy in Pittsburgh or at least take the offer seriously.

Even as one of the more vocal Marner apologists on this board, I would have welcomed a Marner trade. Firmly believed we needed a shake up within the core. I think a deal was probably out there this summer.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I understand it and some time i would like to see a little bit more from him.. he can be a little be sloopy in the offensive zone or with the puck but you will never see marner taking a shift off defensive side. Why Matthews was struggling when he was playing with nylander in playoff but not with Marner? With nylander he was unable to move out of defensive zone but marner making just so much defensive play than Matthews had the puck muxh more time on his stick.

You will never see marner cheating to get a free breakaway or 2v1 but he will aleays be the 1st guy to play in his own zone and help his D to make play

I guarantee you playing in a team with player playing the marner way will be much more better than a team playing nylander way...

Its like comparing boston way to edmonton way

Sure, no question that Marner is the more "complete" player or however you want to put it, though it'll be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out in that regard - the Marner way might be better than the Nylander way but so far, Nylander is outplaying him and I don't think it's really all that close either. But whatever, it's still early, I'm sure Marner will get going at some point, not everyone has to play the same style and both are great players. Like I said, literally my only problem with Marner is in that small number of games, he just hasn't played anywhere near as well as he's capable of playing but those games have just been so important and have decided more than one playoff series over the years that it's a pretty big deal (at least to me).

 

[hullsy47]

If you think objectively looking at Marner, considering both the positives and the negatives is "blind hate", then it's you Paul that is blind. And BTW, there's no such thing as "made up facts".

And saying "Nylander isn’t going anywhere either" makes no sense whatsoever. Do you see why?


How sure are you about this?

Eduardo Rodriguez did that to the detroit tigers
Wouldn't go to LA only to opt out of his contract
Screw loyalty right now Nylander looks better than marner
I can treliving looking worse than he did with geadreau

The opportunity for him to be traded left when Dubas was canned. Dubas was legit going to trade Marner the more I look into it and rehash everything that happened.

Dubas is vocal about being open to making a trade. Then all of a sudden he’s not passionate about being in this market?

What I believe happened towards the end there was, Dubas had a plan to trade Marner before the NMC kicked in and shake up the core if they failed in the playoffs. I believe that plan was then nixed by Shanny and MLSE board. Mix that in with Dubas wanted an extension a year ago, didn’t get it and now maybe his plan is shut down. Nail in the coffin. I think that was the last straw and enough for him to begin his plan for more autonomy in Pittsburgh or at least take the offer seriously.

Even as one of the more vocal Marner apologists on this board, I would have welcomed a Marner trade. Firmly believed we needed a shake up within the core. I think a deal was probably out there this summer.

The opportunity for him to be traded left when Dubas was canned. Dubas was legit going to trade Marner the more I look into it and rehash everything that happened.

Dubas is vocal about being open to making a trade. Then all of a sudden he’s not passionate about being in this market?

What I believe happened towards the end there was, Dubas had a plan to trade Marner before the NMC kicked in and shake up the core if they failed in the playoffs. I believe that plan was then nixed by Shanny and MLSE board. Mix that in with Dubas wanted an extension a year ago, didn’t get it and now maybe his plan is shut down. Nail in the coffin. I think that was the last straw and enough for him to begin his plan for more autonomy in Pittsburgh or at least take the offer seriously.

Even as one of the more vocal Marner apologists on this board, I would have welcomed a Marner trade. Firmly believed we needed a shake up within the core. I think a deal was probably out there this summer.

Why shanny has a job still is amazing
But IMO treliving is Tannenbaum s choice to replace Shanahan

 

[thusk]

Sure, no question that Marner is the more "complete" player or however you want to put it, though it'll be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out in that regard - the Marner way might be better than the Nylander way but so far, Nylander is outplaying him and I don't think it's really all that close either. But whatever, it's still early, I'm sure Marner will get going at some point, not everyone has to play the same style and both are great players. Like I said, literally my only problem with Marner is in that small number of games, he just hasn't played anywhere near as well as he's capable of playing but those games have just been so important and have decided more than one playoff series over the years that it's a pretty big deal (at least to me).

Yes in 9 game nylander had been better p
Offensively and its not even close this season... im 100% agree, but the problem is when the puck is on defensive side, he disappear and thats why leafs allowed 2X more goal at even strengh than marner... He disappear the same way than marner disappear this season in the offensive side.

I suggest you next game to watch both nylander and marner in the defensive end.

What i saying, Nylander to outplay Marner... he need to produce in a much higher rate like he doing right now...at a similar rate of production, Marner will always outplay nylander and it will not be even close.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Not sure why there's a Marner thread like this and not a Matthews thread (who has been just as disappointing so far). My honest opinion is that his personality comes across as a little arrogant (not saying he is arrogant, just that it's an impression). Matthews just seems to be happier. I liken it to why people hate politicians (Stephen Harper and Andrew Scheer for their constant smirk, Justin Trudeau for his thespian routine). People are just turned off by different things.

Personally, I like Mitch and hope he's a Leaf for life. Matthews too for what it's worth.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yes in 9 game nylander had been better p
Offensively and its not even close this season... im 100% agree, but the problem is when the puck is on defensive side, he disappear and thats why leafs allowed 2X more goal at even strengh than marner... He disappear the same way than marner disappear this season in the offensive side.

I suggest you next game to watch both nylander and marner in the defensive end.

What i saying, Nylander to outplay Marner... he need to produce in a much higher rate like he doing right now...at a similar rate of production, Marner will always outplay nylander and it will not be even close.

Nylander has been much better than Marner so far this season, not just offensively, but overall. Do you disagree with that statement?

I don't agree with saying Nylander "disappears" and blaming him for all the goals against while he's on the ice, that's just way over the top.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not sure why there's a Marner thread like this and not a Matthews thread (who has been just as disappointing so far). My honest opinion is that his personality comes across as a little arrogant (not saying he is arrogant, just that it's an impression). Matthews just seems to be happier. I liken it to why people hate politicians (Stephen Harper and Andrew Scheer for their constant smirk, Justin Trudeau for his thespian routine). People are just turned off by different things.

Personally, I like Mitch and hope he's a Leaf for life. Matthews too for what it's worth.

That's interesting, I think you might be on to something there. There's something about Marner that's really annoying at times, Matthews too but not to the same extent as Marner. And I agree that Matthews has been disappointing as well, not quite as disappointing as Marner IMHO but not far behind either.

I remember someone asking me years ago for my opinion on Trudeau. I politely said something like "he seems to be a bit of a lightweight" and I got the response "he's a moron". Yeah, sigh, maybe moron is too strong but "a bit of a lightweight" is probably too polite. But I digress ...

 

[Antropovsky]

Not sure why there's a Marner thread like this and not a Matthews thread (who has been just as disappointing so far). My honest opinion is that his personality comes across as a little arrogant (not saying he is arrogant, just that it's an impression). Matthews just seems to be happier. I liken it to why people hate politicians (Stephen Harper and Andrew Scheer for their constant smirk, Justin Trudeau for his thespian routine). People are just turned off by different things.

Personally, I like Mitch and hope he's a Leaf for life. Matthews too for what it's worth.

One of them was drafted #1, has a Lindsay, a Hart, two Rockets and the Calder. The other has none. One is a big center, great at faceoffs and excellent defensive player while playing one the most difficult defensive positions on the ice.

This year... One of them has 7 goals in 9 games. The other has a pile of assists from set plays on a pp.

If your watching the playoffs, or reading advanced stats... Matthews actually played similarly to his season stats. He was getting lots of shots from the slot (actually 1.5% more in the playoffs), from the same distance from the net as in the season.

Marner..was 10' further from the net and his slot shot percentage was 14% worse in the playoffs from the season, and worst on the roster by a wide margin. The goals he did score were low percentage by NHL standards. I think he scored 3 of these low percentage goals, where the league average from those areas was 0.

Matthews plays physical in the playoffs.. Marner doesn't.


The list goes on and on...

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

That's interesting, I think you might be on to something there. There's something about Marner that's really annoying at times, Matthews too but not to the same extent as Marner. And I agree that Matthews has been disappointing as well, not quite as disappointing as Marner IMHO but not far behind either.

I remember someone asking me years ago for my opinion on Trudeau. I politely said something like "he seems to be a bit of a lightweight" and I got the response "he's a moron". Yeah, sigh, maybe moron is too strong but "a bit of a lightweight" is probably too polite. But I digress ...

Yeah I don't want to run afoul of the powers-that-be so I left it to the personality stuff. People are really turned off by certain things. I think we all are but the older I get, the more forgiving I get and I think Marner is a good guy but just seems a little defensive (lol, including on the ice!). I bet he and his parents got treated pretty badly in minor hockey, I don't know if people realize exactly how poisonous minor league hockey is out here in Oakville/Burlington.

One of them was drafted #1, has a Lindsay, a Hart, two Rockets and the Calder. The other has none. One is a big center, great at faceoffs and excellent defensive player while playing one the most difficult defensive positions on the ice.

This year... One of them has 7 goals in 9 games. The other has a pile of assists from set plays on a pp.

If your watching the playoffs, or reading advanced stats... Matthews actually played similarly to his season stats. He was getting lots of shots from the slot (actually 1.5% more in the playoffs), from the same distance from the net as in the season.

Marner..was 10' further from the net and his slot shot percentage was 14% worse in the playoffs from the season, and worst on the roster by a wide margin. The goals he did score were low percentage by NHL standards. I think he scored 3 of these low percentage goals, where the league average from those areas was 0.

Matthews plays physical in the playoffs.. Marner doesn't.


The list goes on and on...

Just saying, I love 'em both. Not taking sides.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I assume these are even strength numbers, so basically another way of expressing +- stats?

If so then I wouldn't wouldn't read much into this, it's been known for a long time that +- stats can be very misleading.

He's also doing a very good job of using isolated statistics with no context, but he's been a huge anti-Nylander poster for a long time.

How about comparing regular season to playoff ppg, using his criterion of 21-23?

Matty regular 1.29 playoff 1.00 drop of .29
Mitch regular 1.27 playoff 1.04 drop of .23
Willy regular 0.98 playoff 1.00 increase of .02
JT regular 0.96 playoff 0.74 drop of .22

 

[notDatsyuk]

Yes in 9 game nylander had been better p
Offensively and its not even close this season... im 100% agree, but the problem is when the puck is on defensive side, he disappear and thats why leafs allowed 2X more goal at even strengh than marner... He disappear the same way than marner disappear this season in the offensive side.

I suggest you next game to watch both nylander and marner in the defensive end.

What i saying, Nylander to outplay Marner... he need to produce in a much higher rate like he doing right now...at a similar rate of production, Marner will always outplay nylander and it will not be even close.

Nylander has to outplay Marner by a lot to even be as good?

Obviously in your opinion. Maybe that's the problem.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Not sure why there's a Marner thread like this and not a Matthews thread (who has been just as disappointing so far). My honest opinion is that his personality comes across as a little arrogant (not saying he is arrogant, just that it's an impression). Matthews just seems to be happier. I liken it to why people hate politicians (Stephen Harper and Andrew Scheer for their constant smirk, Justin Trudeau for his thespian routine). People are just turned off by different things.

Personally, I like Mitch and hope he's a Leaf for life. Matthews too for what it's worth.

This thread started right after the playoffs, when Marner had a really bad series, and his NMC had not kicked in yet, so trading him was a viable possibility.

It should have been closed the day the NMC kicked in (June 1 or July 1), but now it's just a catfight.

 

[Gary Nylund]

He's also doing a very good job of using isolated statistics with no context, but he's been a huge anti-Nylander poster for a long time.

How about comparing regular season to playoff ppg, using his criterion of 21-23?

Matty regular 1.29 playoff 1.00 drop of .29
Mitch regular 1.27 playoff 1.04 drop of .23
Willy regular 0.98 playoff 1.00 increase of .02
JT regular 0.96 playoff 0.74 drop of .22

Hmm, that's helpful context. Thanks!