Value of: Mitch Marner this offseason (2.5 mil retained)

[Habs Halifax]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Marner has a full NMC through the end of his contract, right? So he could theoretically just keep saying "no" to deals until 7/1/25 and then walk for nothing. Or he could tell TOR where he'd be willing to go, and that could be 1 team. So, putting a value on him is kind of difficult because it's not a normal market transaction, potentially anyway.

You are correct. Very difficult to move for the value the Leafs would want. Marner feels like he earned the NMC and if he were to waive it, it might be for 3 teams. Once those 3 teams know, they look at each other and wonder what they would provide and what their cap structure looks like. GM's are clever that way in terms of leverage.

Honestly, I don't see any of the core being traded. Focus should be where the cap space is spent this summer. Creating offense is not an issue, it's winning the 2-1 games like they did last night. Got to learn how to play against rough teams and to prevent soft goals allowed. Those are momentum killers.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Why would he want to stay in Toronto, is my question. Gotta be miserable now. You ain’t about that hockey life, young homie, just call your shot and pull up on a San Jose beach. Tell Matthews to kiss your ass all the way from Arizona to Utah, ski slopes, but you know he just gonna fail again next playoffs.

 

[wintersej]

Leafs won so now he is worth 4 1sts.

 

[Bruce Granville]

Leafs won so now he is worth 4 1sts.

At least.
They will re-sign for 8x 16m (his jersey #)…

 

[General Fanager]

Sorry but Dubas just didn't get it done. 8 years from when Matthews was drafted and the goaltending/D has not improved. You can try to defend him but it becomes excuses. Both Shanny and Dubas deserved heat.

Hopefully, you can figure it out this summer. Leafs cap does open up a bit and will open up even more for the 25/26 season ($92M cap). With the Coyotes moving to Utah, I see even more revenue and a $100M cap is not far away. I've been saying this for years. Once the NHLPA pays of their outstanding balance, the cap will rise sharply.

well first of all Matthews was drafted 2 years before Dubas became the GM. Secondly I think you should reread my post. I did not say Dubas was not to blame. I was simply pointing out the fact that Shanny had his hands into everything so I would blame Shanny more than Dubas but for sure Dubas should share the blame. Which is what I said in my post.

 

[seanlinden]

Trading him is almost a guaranteed loss for the leafs. No interest in trading elite talent. I’d rather resign him and wait for the Tavares contract to run out next year. If for some reason he asked for a trade, I’d take a loss and trade him out West. He’d burn the leafs the rest of his career in the East.

The "refusal to take a L" is the reason why the Leafs are in this problem with these salaries in the first place.

Ultimately, yes, on face value, trading Marner will almost certainly be a loss. Sometimes you've gotta take a step backward to change culture before taking 2 steps forward.

 

[seanlinden]

You are correct. Very difficult to move for the value the Leafs would want. Marner feels like he earned the NMC and if he were to waive it, it might be for 3 teams. Once those 3 teams know, they look at each other and wonder what they would provide and what their cap structure looks like. GM's are clever that way in terms of leverage.

Honestly, I don't see any of the core being traded. Focus should be where the cap space is spent this summer. Creating offense is not an issue, it's winning the 2-1 games like they did last night. Got to learn how to play against rough teams and to prevent soft goals allowed. Those are momentum killers.

The challenge is, there's really not a lot of it. Sure, they've got $18m to spend, but they've got some pretty important roles to fill including at least 2 Top 4 defencemen, a top 6 forward, 3rd line C, and goaltender.

There's also the whole "definition of insantiy" thing -- trying the same thing over and over expecting differnt results.

Seems like Domi has probably earned himself a contract exptension. If they run it back with the same core, you're basically looking at the same team as this year with the following changes:
Tyler Bertuzzi becomes Easton Cowan
Ilya Lyubushkin & TJ Brodie becomes a $5-6m incoming defenceman & a league minimum guy.
Ilya Samsonov becomes another ~$4m goalie.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The challenge is, there's really not a lot of it. Sure, they've got $18m to spend, but they've got some pretty important roles to fill including at least 2 Top 4 defencemen, a top 6 forward, 3rd line C, and goaltender.

There's also the whole "definition of insantiy" thing -- trying the same thing over and over expecting differnt results.

Seems like Domi has probably earned himself a contract exptension. If they run it back with the same core, you're basically looking at the same team as this year with the following changes:
Tyler Bertuzzi becomes Easton Cowan
Ilya Lyubushkin & TJ Brodie becomes a $5-6m incoming defenceman & a league minimum guy.
Ilya Samsonov becomes another ~$4m goalie.

I see the challenges too but whatever moves are made, make good ones that are not patches. One guy I'd look at trading for is Knight. Panthers need cap space this summer and probably would like to keep Bob. Bob's hard to move anyways.

I'd bring back Domi but on a value contract. If he wants to cash in or get a raise, let him walk. I'm a fan of Domi and I'm sure the Leafs fans are as well but not worth committing to if he wants a raise. Basically, if he wants to be part of the team, take less to stay.

Brodie might return on a cheap deal like Gio.

Who's the $4M-$5M guy on D you can add? No idea. Not sure who is RFA on D but I'd go hostile and do offer sheet. Your 1st are always 20+ and if you get your guy to add to the core D, that works. T Harley on the Stars might be someone I would look into.

 

[Habs Halifax]

well first of all Matthews was drafted 2 years before Dubas became the GM. Secondly I think you should reread my post. I did not say Dubas was not to blame. I was simply pointing out the fact that Shanny had his hands into everything so I would blame Shanny more than Dubas but for sure Dubas should share the blame. Which is what I said in my post.

No offense but the excuses are running out. It's been too long to improve the D and goaltending. Trying to move around that and attacking someone like Marner (not saying you are), is ignorance.

 

[conFABulator]

The challenge is, there's really not a lot of it. Sure, they've got $18m to spend, but they've got some pretty important roles to fill including at least 2 Top 4 defencemen, a top 6 forward, 3rd line C, and goaltender.

There's also the whole "definition of insantiy" thing -- trying the same thing over and over expecting differnt results.

Seems like Domi has probably earned himself a contract exptension. If they run it back with the same core, you're basically looking at the same team as this year with the following changes:
Tyler Bertuzzi becomes Easton Cowan
Ilya Lyubushkin & TJ Brodie becomes a $5-6m incoming defenceman & a league minimum guy.
Ilya Samsonov becomes another ~$4m goalie

XXXXX MATTHEWS. XXXXX.
ROBERTSON HOLMBERG. NYLANDER
KNIES TAVARES. MCMANN
DEWAR KAMPF REAVES

RIELLY. XXXX
MCCABE LILJEGREN (RFA)
BENOIT XXXX

XXXX
WOLL

it looks like we agree that they have $18M to spend and 2F, 2D and 1G to find. I think this is the season where they shift spending from F to D and when they start to integrate youth into the lineup (with forwards being the likely candidates, maybe Hildeby as a third goalie).

TRADE:
Marner
Kampf
Timmins
Liljegren (possibly)

This frees up $14M more plus whatever Liljegren was going to cost. The only significant and regrettable departure is Marner and he should get a strong return. The Leafs now have $32M to spend.

Would something like Marner and Liljegren for Oleksiak, Larsson and Wright work?

We resign Domi, Bertuzzi, Edmondson, and maybe Lyubushkin.

Sign Tanev
Sign or acquire a goalie for $4M or $5M

BERTUZZI. MATTHEWS. DOMI
JARNKROK. HOLMBERG. NYLANDER
TAVARES. WRIGHT. KNIES
MCMANN. DEWAR. REAVES.

(Figure out how to integrate Minten, Cowan, Grebonkin, Hirvonen into the lineup or Marlies as call ups).

RIELLY. TANEV
OLEKSIAK. LARSSON
BENOIT MCCABE
EDMONDSON LYUBUSHKIN

GOALIE
WOLL

This lineup would have $2M in cap to spare. Marner is not really replaced, because he is very good and his loss will be felt. But, Domi takes his spot with AM34 and Knies, Robertson, McMann and Wright all take a step forward and each pick up some of the offense and PK duties.

The D is dramatically better, contender level (finally) and they have Woll and someone qualified as a tandem.

They haven't touched any draft capital or Minten, Cowan, Grebenkin, Hirvonen, Niemela or Hildeby and the following year the cap goes up and they resign JT at an $8M discount. Giving them another $12M or so to spend.

Trading Marner is the key to the re-tool.

 

[YP44]

You understand that DD is 34 right?

While I agree that Marner's value might take a small hit due to the circumstances, DD straight up just isn't close.

you do realize he just finished with one of his best offensive seasons and played more than any other player in the league right? Even Dom with the Athletic is moving towards Drew's side of things. He has been very good while playing against top competition. Given Marner could be a one year and then UFA risk is more on LA's side.

 

[Srsly]

I've been disappointed in Marner's play. That said everyone here is acting like he's a liability and the main reason he Leafs are underachieving in the post season.
Let’s be real for a minute, despite underachieving he lead the team in points during last years playoffs and is currently tied for second while being part of the PK, PP and more or less every single situation. The reason we see him make more mistakes is because he’s relied on more than the corpse of JT, Nylander, and even Matthews. He’s just the latest scape goat for a frustrated fan base of a team that’s been routinely out coached and outplayed in the play offs.

 

[mydnyte]

I've been disappointed in Marner's play. That said everyone here is acting like he's a liability and the main reason he Leafs are underachieving in the post season.
Let’s be real for a minute, despite underachieving he lead the team in points during last years playoffs and is currently tied for second while being part of the PK, PP and more or less every single situation. The reason we see him make more mistakes is because he’s relied on more than the corpse of JT, Nylander, and even Matthews. He’s just the latest scape goat for a frustrated fan base of a team that’s been routinely out coached and outplayed in the play offs.

pretty much this...Marner is not the 'main' problem (or even a top problem), it's Keefe and a defense that has no true #1, and a bunch of 4-6 D-men.

Fire Keefe, and use all the free $$ to rebuild the Defense and the Leafs are a much better team.

The only person i can see being asked to waive their NMC would be JT, and that would likely be, only, to go back to the Isles (Isles fans would go batty though) for one of their Defenders

 

[Iwishihadaspacebar]

Why would he want to stay in Toronto, is my question. Gotta be miserable now. You ain’t about that hockey life, young homie, just call your shot and pull up on a San Jose beach. Tell Matthews to kiss your ass all the way from Arizona to Utah, ski slopes, but you know he just gonna fail again next playoffs.

Next year? He can put up another 90 points and then get paid. The risk for him is moving to somewhere that may make his production go down, costing him a lot of money

 

[FerrisRox]

Chicago could make sense to play with Bedard.

If I had a young potential superstar player the last person I would want as a role model for him would be Mitch Marner.

The Blackhawks should stay as far away as possible.

The only person i can see being asked to waive their NMC would be JT, and that would likely be, only, to go back to the Isles (Isles fans would go batty though) for one of their Defenders

Why would the Islanders do that?

 

[34]

If I had a young potential superstar player the last person I would want as a role model for him would be Mitch Marner.

The Blackhawks should stay as far away as possible.

Why is that? Just because you hate the Leafs it does not take away from the fact that he is an elite player.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Why is that? Just because you hate the Leafs it does not take away from the fact that he is an elite player.

Poster is a leafs fan.

 

[34]

Poster is a leafs fan.

Hmmm don’t think so. Vancouver fan.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Hmmm don’t think so. Vancouver fan.

Posts in your forum, and see in some GDT as well. At least that’s what I saw when I checked, after you called out, as I thought was a leafs fan.
Possibly just posts in leafs forum, and is a Canuck fan.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

The correct answer is he isnt a good role model. He has talent but doesnt play winning hockey and doesnt seem to have team first mindset.

 

[FerrisRox]

Why is that? Just because you hate the Leafs it does not take away from the fact that he is an elite player.

I don't know where you got the idea I hate the Leafs, I certainly don't.

While I concede he is a very talented player, I'm not a fan of Mitch Marner at all. In particular, I have issues with his attitude, his heart and his work ethic and I wouldn't want any player to look to him as any kind of role model.

The correct answer is he isnt a good role model. He has talent but doesnt play winning hockey and doesnt seem to have team first mindset.

Exactly.

 

[34]

I don't know where you got the idea I hate the Leafs, I certainly don't.

While I concede he is a very talented player, I'm not a fan of Mitch Marner at all. In particular, I have issues with his attitude, his heart and his work ethic and I wouldn't want any player to look to him as any kind of role model.



Exactly.

I fully agree. I don’t like his attitude neither. He is a an extremely skilled player though.

Posts in your forum, and see in some GDT as well. At least that’s what I saw when I checked, after you called out, as I thought was a leafs fan.
Possibly just posts in leafs forum, and is a Canuck fan.

Yup.

 

[nerevarine]

Marner + 1st 2025 + 1st 2026 for Draisaitl (with 8 year extension @ 15M/year)

 

[Mats26]

Next year? He can put up another 90 points and then get paid. The risk for him is moving to somewhere that may make his production go down, costing him a lot of money

Poor guy, only made 65 million in 6 years and brought nothing but first rd exits to the paying fans.

 

[seanlinden]

XXXXX MATTHEWS. XXXXX.
ROBERTSON HOLMBERG. NYLANDER
KNIES TAVARES. MCMANN
DEWAR KAMPF REAVES

RIELLY. XXXX
MCCABE LILJEGREN (RFA)
BENOIT XXXX

XXXX
WOLL

it looks like we agree that they have $18M to spend and 2F, 2D and 1G to find. I think this is the season where they shift spending from F to D and when they start to integrate youth into the lineup (with forwards being the likely candidates, maybe Hildeby as a third goalie).

TRADE:
Marner
Kampf
Timmins
Liljegren (possibly)

This frees up $14M more plus whatever Liljegren was going to cost. The only significant and regrettable departure is Marner and he should get a strong return. The Leafs now have $32M to spend.

Would something like Marner and Liljegren for Oleksiak, Larsson and Wright work?

We resign Domi, Bertuzzi, Edmondson, and maybe Lyubushkin.

Sign Tanev
Sign or acquire a goalie for $4M or $5M

BERTUZZI. MATTHEWS. DOMI
JARNKROK. HOLMBERG. NYLANDER
TAVARES. WRIGHT. KNIES
MCMANN. DEWAR. REAVES.

(Figure out how to integrate Minten, Cowan, Grebonkin, Hirvonen into the lineup or Marlies as call ups).

RIELLY. TANEV
OLEKSIAK. LARSSON
BENOIT MCCABE
EDMONDSON LYUBUSHKIN

GOALIE
WOLL

This lineup would have $2M in cap to spare. Marner is not really replaced, because he is very good and his loss will be felt. But, Domi takes his spot with AM34 and Knies, Robertson, McMann and Wright all take a step forward and each pick up some of the offense and PK duties.

The D is dramatically better, contender level (finally) and they have Woll and someone qualified as a tandem.

They haven't touched any draft capital or Minten, Cowan, Grebenkin, Hirvonen, Niemela or Hildeby and the following year the cap goes up and they resign JT at an $8M discount. Giving them another $12M or so to spend.

Trading Marner is the key to the re-tool.

Yeah obviously trading Marner opens up a ton of possibilities cap wise -- the question is -- can they find the right fit?

Seattle would probably a good team to "target" with a Marner trade, but we have to remember, he may not be all that interested in going there.

This isn't me saying that Marner is going to hold the Leafs hostage, but the 2-3 teams he picks might not have that "ideal defensive upgrade" available.