Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[ToDavid]

Chris Johnston:

• Guentzel got $9M on the open market - Marner is younger, and has outperformed Guentzel in the regular season, so predicts that Marner could get more than Guentzel on the market open
• Doesn't know if he would get $2M more than Guentzel as a free agent though

What they could get as free agents doesn't seem to ever matter here.

Nylander would have got $9m this summer. We gave him $11.5m. Marner could easily get $9-$10m as a UFA next year but I bet Shanny and Treliving are going to give him $12m.

 

[Mess]

If the plan is to let him walk, then they have to trade him before the deadline. It's fine to sit here in July and think that's feasible, but the clamour with the fan base and media frenzy will make it untenable if say we're here in Feb with no extension. We aren't doing a Sundin here imo, yes cap space is value but you're not going into the playoffs with this guy set to walk and you have no return. Something gives before the tdl.

2 X Stanley Cup Tampa Bay just let 34 year old and 40 goal and their Captain Steven Stamkos walk away to free agency who was making only $8.5 mil at the time.

Then they decided to give 29 year old Jake Guentzel a 7 year deal @ $9 mil to replace SS.

IF TB can do that in the best interest of trying to win another Stanley Cup then Leafs can cut bait with Mitch Marner.

It will be a circus all season in Toronto and Mitch will be a gigantic distraction no question.

 

[rojac]

Tavares, Panarin and Gaudreau say Hi.

As for the $12-13m, you better be wrong or we are f***ed. There is nothing worse than losing in April over and over again. We are not here to sell jerseys. Remember?

Good thing the Leafs haven't ended their season in April since the 2018-2019 season.

But seriously, I can thing of many, many things that are far, far worse than a silly pro hockey team usually losing in the first round of the playoffs. Many, many things.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Lol what?

You don't honestly think free agents wait until the morning of July 1st to start talking to teams about potential contracts, do you!?


As I suspected back in April, he will hold the Shanahan bullet in his back pocket, and then use it next summer in some sort of grandsweeping "we want to win!" chest pounding thing.

It hurts how predictable we've become.

You are hurt?

 

[ToneDog]

Good thing the Leafs haven't ended their season in April since the 2018-2019 season.

But seriously, I can thing of many, many things that are far, far worse than a silly pro hockey team usually losing in the first round of the playoffs. Many, many things.

1000%. Leafs actually ended their season in August one year.

 

[Aashir]

Even with JT's 11 mill off the books and our back end locked up for the next few years?

Well either we re-up JT at 5-6 and only have 5-6 left or we have to find a 2C, best case we draft it, but realistically we are paying 6-8 for another 2C

Alternatively, whilst we have over the next 3-4 years
Rielly - Tanev
X - X (McCabe - Liljegren rn)
OEL - X (Benoit/Haakanpana)

I wouldn’t mind letting the three bracketed walk and grab a better couple of defenders. I am incredibly worried about the tanev term and how it ages even starting this year. OEL is a gamble, hopefully it works. Marner’s money could help grab a nice pairing

Also, for me it’s also a bit of the player vs the contract, I don’t know if you can win with Marner (or any of them) being a leader on the team, whether at 9 or at 14. Marners play just isn’t up to the level of his skill and talent so idk if he can be a driver on a cup winning team. So admittedly it’s not all cap reasons, but also some questions of the player too

 

[ToneDog]

2 X Stanley Cup Tampa Bay just let 34 year old and 40 goal and their Captain Steven Stamkos walk away to free agency who was making only $8.5 mil at the time.

Then they decided to give 29 year old Jake Guentzel a 7 year deal @ $9 mil to replace SS.

IF TB can do that in the best interest of trying to win another Stanley Cup then Leafs can cut bait with Mitch Marner.

It will be a circus all season in Toronto and Mitch will be a gigantic distraction no question.

I'm guessing jersey sales have been slow in Tampa for the last couple of years. Never the case here.

Well either we re-up JT at 5-6 and only have 5-6 left or we have to find a 2C, best case we draft it, but realistically we are paying 6-8 for another 2C

Alternatively, whilst we have over the next 3-4 years
Rielly - Tanev
X - X (McCabe - Liljegren rn)
OEL - X (Benoit/Haakanpana)

I wouldn’t mind letting the three bracketed walk and grab a better couple of defenders. I am incredibly worried about the tanev term and how it ages even starting this year. OEL is a gamble, hopefully it works. Marner’s money could help grab a nice pairing

Also, for me it’s also a bit of the player vs the contract, I don’t know if you can win with Marner (or any of them) being a leader on the team, whether at 9 or at 14. Marners play just isn’t up to the level of his skill and talent so idk if he can be a driver on a cup winning team. So admittedly it’s not all cap reasons, but also some questions of the player too

You also have to find money for Woll ($3m), Knies, and McCabe. There still may not be enough money for a #2C if JT resigns for more than $3m.

 

[ToDavid]

Guessing those with the more vivid imaginations won't like this but it seems to echo a lot of the thoughts that have been mentioned this summer.
Bolded is garbage though, no team thinks that way.

It's probably not as black and white as they put it there, but I would bet the Leafs' position makes them more cautious. I'm sure they want to win, but I'm sure they think very, very carefully about major moves.

Or in other words, I'm sure they want to win, but I'm also sure they even more don't want to go back to being the mid-2000s to mid-2010s team.

 

[Leaf Fans]

It's probably not as black and white as they put it there, but I would bet the Leafs' position makes them more cautious. I'm sure they want to win, but I'm sure they think very, very carefully about major moves.

Or in other words, I'm sure they want to win, but I'm also sure they even more don't want to go back to being the mid-2000s to mid-2010s team.

Yeah. We probably don't want that either.

 

[rojac]

2 X Stanley Cup Tampa Bay just let 34 year old and 40 goal and their Captain Steven Stamkos walk away to free agency who was making only $8.5 mil at the time.

Then they decided to give 29 year old Jake Guentzel a 7 year deal @ $9 mil to replace SS.

IF TB can do that in the best interest of trying to win another Stanley Cup then Leafs can cut bait with Mitch Marner.

It will be a circus all season in Toronto and Mitch will be a gigantic distraction no question.

But that's a decisiion for Treliving and Shanahan to make. Sure, it's fun to see some thoughts from fans on what a team should do, but this 400 page obsession is simply obscene.

 

[ACC1224]

It's probably not as black and white as they put it there, but I would bet the Leafs' position makes them more cautious. I'm sure they want to win, but I'm sure they think very, very carefully about major moves.

Or in other words, I'm sure they want to win, but I'm also sure they even more don't want to go back to being the mid-2000s to mid-2010s team.

Of course they would weigh they affect of any move like any team would.

then he should not be on this team

I’m not saying I disagree with that thought process, but it’s just not something we should be entertaining. We can’t afford to bring Marner back at almost any realistic caphit, especially not 12.7 (rounded)

Marner hasn’t shown consistent ability to elevate his game from the regular season. Part of that is the lofty expectations of being a top player in the regular season, but most of it is his inability to come up big when it matters. You can’t pay him that much money when he doesn’t show up in the big stages

They had the opportunity to try an reset the internal salary scale with Nylander but once they chose to overpay him they committed to giving Marner a raise or letting him go.

 

[Hellcat]

As I suspected back in April, he will hold the Shanahan bullet in his back pocket, and then use it next summer in some sort of grandsweeping "we want to win!" chest pounding thing.

It hurts how predictable we've become.

Working in that world for the last 30ish years, what you described is how virtually every large money corporation works.

1) If you have time use it, delay - delay - delay
2) Find a scapegoat
3) CYA even if it means throwing someone else under the bus
4) Give platitudes to the person you just shit-canned because one day he/she may be your boss somewhere else.
5) Tell your boss what he/she wants to hear, even if it is not true or completed yet and then work like a maniac towards making it happen
6) Fake results are as good as real results as long and the executives believe it to be true, it is true.
7) Most leaders at Pelly's level dont really know what is going on, what they know is what their subordinates are telling them.

I dont subscribe to any of the 7 things that I listed except for the 1st one, but I see it every day.

 

[Tak7]

What they could get as free agents doesn't seem to ever matter here.

Nylander would have got $9m this summer. We gave him $11.5m. Marner could easily get $9-$10m as a UFA next year but I bet Shanny and Treliving are going to give him $12m.

Fully agree. I'd have to re-listen to the bit, but I believe they were talking more about Marner hitting the open market as a free agent, not what he'd get in Toronto.

The idea being that it doesn't make any sense for the Leafs to rush through a Marner extension the way they did with Nylander, even if he has a predictably great start to the season

 

[Hellcat]

Fully agree. I'd have to re-listen to the bit, but I believe they were talking more about Marner hitting the open market as a free agent, not what he'd get in Toronto.

The idea being that it doesn't make any sense for the Leafs to rush through a Marner extension the way they did with Nylander, even if he has a predictably great start to the season

Does anyone think for a second Marner's shots per game over the first 30ish games are not going to be way above his career average? He's going to score more setup less. Goals get you paid, assists are not as sexy.

 

[Racer88]

Is opportunity the only ingredient in scoring? Dont you need skill to see an uptick on your production? Marner's 65 assists a year go away and now Kampft is a 60 assist guy? McMann a 35 goal guy? Reaves a 2 goal guy? OK I got a little carried away with Reaves...

Not sure it's as easy cheesy lemon squeezy as you make it out to be.

I don’t think I said it would totally replace Marners 65 assist but some of it would absolutely be replace.
It’s not as impossible to make up as you make it out to be. I’m betting it’s somewhere in the middle.
However we have had Marners contributions for 8 years now and have gone nowhere.
You are looking at Marners removal in a vacuum and not allowing any weight to replacements

 

[Canadian Finn]

tries too hard.

cares too much.

 

[Racer88]

The problem is there is no one left in UFA that is going to make your team better this season. You would have to wait until mid season or the following off season to utilize both the assets and cap space you got from a Marner trade. I’m not saying that you can’t replace him with better players. But the timing of a trade now would limit the teams ability to flip those assets immediately. We would be worse for at least a year before getting better.



Couldn’t agree more, if the right deal is there for any player the leafs should consider it. There shouldn’t be anyone who is untouchable.

For sure. It probably is too late to trade Marner for any measurable return but resigning that guy to 8X 12.5 would be an unmitigated disaster.
So here we are with no good options left

tries too hard.

cares too much.

Ya I couldn’t stop laughing as well

 

[Tak7]

Does anyone think for a second Marner's shots per game over the first 30ish games are not going to be way above his career average? He's going to score more setup less. Goals get you paid, assists are as sexy.

I'm putting huge money on any prop that involves Marner getting 100+ points next season.

Inevitable.

 

[GoonieFace]

At this point all we can hope is Marner has a great playoff and we make some headway.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

You're the one convincing yourself that some common, nothing play is "egregious".

Engaging from the outside position is not "giving possession to your opponent". It's trying to gain possession. He tries to block the pass up the boards - which he generally does quite well - and while that didn't work this time, his choice allowed him to pin his opponent and get ahead of him getting back. You'd think if one was resorting to clip hunting, they'd have an actual clip of something bad. But hey, if not getting crushed into the boards for no reason at every opportunity is your line in the sand, then good luck with your 0 NHL players.

Just lol

 

[GoonieFace]

Just lol

How anyone can look at that play and think anything other than Marner bailing out is delusional

 

[Zero1]

Nylander is probably my favourite player of the core 4 but they should have let him go to market. I don’t think any team was offering him $13.14x7 to match the $11.5x8 he got. If he walks then you replace him with Guentzel or Marchessault at a much lower cap hit then use the savings to upgrade the defence.

If Marner won’t waive then let him go to market. I rather use the $12 mill to take a run at Rantanen or the off chance that Drai makes it to free agency.

 

[IPS]

How anyone can look at that play and think anything other than Marner bailing out is delusional

Also look at Knies on the play. He was clearly skating to the area behind the net where Mitch would have played it to with his backhand had he not completely bitched out of taking the hit to make the play.

 

[egd27]

Well either we re-up JT at 5-6 and only have 5-6 left or we have to find a 2C, best case we draft it, but realistically we are paying 6-8 for another 2C

Woll has already taken a chunk of that extra 5-6 and Knies will take another chunk.

 

[notbias]

2 X Stanley Cup Tampa Bay just let 34 year old and 40 goal and their Captain Steven Stamkos walk away to free agency who was making only $8.5 mil at the time.

Then they decided to give 29 year old Jake Guentzel a 7 year deal @ $9 mil to replace SS.

IF TB can do that in the best interest of trying to win another Stanley Cup then Leafs can cut bait with Mitch Marner.

It will be a circus all season in Toronto and Mitch will be a gigantic distraction no question.

Can you break down the contributions Stamkos has during those cup runs?

I'll give you a hint, it was minimal at best.