This is the second time in a few days I read this sort of statement and I was hoping that you could clarify it. I'm not trying to put words in your mouth, I'm trying to understand exactly what you mean.
It's a fair assumption that Marner will sign at a quite high AAV.
Are you saying that Marner is so bad in the playoffs and / or his AAV will be so high that the team is unlikely to win a playoff series if he plays regardless of any other realistic changes that the team might make?
If I have this correct, does it apply to any team that Marner might play on or just the Leafs because for example we are stuck with too many NMC's etc?
No problem, always happy to explain myself, or at least try to haha.
I'm not saying Marner is "that bad in the playoffs". Historically he's been quite good for the first few games, then not so good to pretty bad after that so overall I'd say he's been good, just not as good as you'd hope from one of the highest paid players in the league. He becomes pretty much a non-factor after the first 4 games of the playoffs and the last two playoffs he hasn't been good throughout so he seems to be trending downward. But still, he has contributed a lot in the past and his contributions in the first 4 playoff games have been substantial, if he played that way throughout the playoffs he'd be a fan favorite.
I'm not optimistic about our playoff chances unless we make major changes. Our other stars are locked in so if we don't move on from Marner, I don't see how we can make major changes so if he's extended, it seems logical to expect more of the same going forward, not just from him, but the team as a whole. If we make other "realistic changes" like you say then I guess anything's possible, I'm certainly not saying that a team with Marner can't have success, I just don't see how we can make major changes with almost half the cap going to 4 players even after JT's contract is up.
My pessimism does not apply to any team that Marner might play on, just the Leafs. And our failures are certainly not all on Marner, there's plenty of blame to go around. He's become the poster boy for our failures and he probably doesn't deserve as much blame as some people give him but IMHO, he deserves his share and his share is substantial.
He was my favorite player at one time and I would love for him to prove me wrong. But I'm just being honest when I say that I don't think he's worth even 11 million a year (never mind 12.5) to a team that wants to go deep in the playoffs. That is of course just my opinion of course and as I said, I would love for him to prove me wrong, especially because I think there's a good chance he will be extended and if he does well, it will help the team which is all that matters to me.