Mitch Marner discussion

[Zybalto]

that brings us to the leafs repeated issue of being goalie'd, is that just amazing goaltending or do they need to modify their play to make it harder on the goalies?

They have certainly moved in the direction of getting more in tight goals this year but he fact the % of points coming from the top of the lineup is virtually the same as the regular season points to getting goalied more than the entire team forgetting how to shoot all at once.

I'd say it's not just getting goalied though but also a lack of finish on some obvious gimmies as well + injuries + a lack of clutch goaltending on our side. Run of play has been dominant so I don't think coaching has factored in much at all. Marner's underlying numbers are just incredible though but if youre a premier setup guy and your shooters keep hitting posts/missing the net/getting stoned, then accidentally flipping the puck over the boards may seem to be the end of the world to some.

 

[NinjaKick]

so tired hearing about his contract... no one forced us to sign him

 

[Zybalto]

Marner scores goals in ways that he will go to the front of net, he will deke and open a goalie up. He is skilled enough to make up for his lack of a shot. But the fact that he can score 20 goals a season should not undermine is subpar shooting ability.

Marner's shot is probably the weakest part of his arsenal but it's not exactly a muffin. Maybe slightly below average? He just doesn't use it often and when it does, he doesnt use it as effectively as he could. We can all wish he would use it more often as he would probably score more but when he defers to his elite vision and the puck goes in so often, its tempting to go for the higher % play.

 

[Caroline Says ll]

Marner's shot is probably the weakest part of his arsenal but it's not exactly a muffin. Maybe slightly below average? He just doesn't use it often and when it does, he doesnt use it as effectively as he could. We can all wish he would use it more often as he would probably score more but when he defers to his elite vision and the puck goes in so often, its tempting to go for the higher % play.

It definitely is his weakest and I do not get how it can be indicated that he has a good shot if he just used it more. He has endless chances to have used it on the powerplay the past two years when teams have given him an open slot to the net to double cover the shooting threats on the team and he still barely shot and when he did it was crest or far wide.

 

[Zybalto]

It definitely is his weakest and I do not get how it can be indicated that he has a good shot if he just used it more. He has endless chances to have used it on the powerplay the past two years when teams have given him an open slot to the net to double cover the shooting threats on the team and he still barely shot and when he did it was crest or far wide.

Considering he had as many PP goals as Tavares did from 2017-the end of the 2020 season, many of them nice snipes, this still looks more like an anomaly as he has hit a bunch of posts and gotten robbed a few times. Only a minority of his shots have been in the crest or far wide.

In fact, from 2017-2020, here is how he rated in scoring PP goals league-wide against other comparable players (players within .25/60 PP goals):

McDavid
Kucherov
Barkov
Marchand
Huberdeau
Panarin
Kane
...lots more

He was actually considered a quite formidable PP goal scorer. Judging him solely on last year's shortened season and the start of this year is a mite harsh so lets hope he can find his way back into those ranks.

 

[Fogelhund]

I wonder if they'd modify the LTIR rules, if enough games are postponed, to have him under the normal amount of LTIR games required, where if they hadn't been postponed, he would have qualified?

 

[Antropovsky]

Whether or not you think it's good, it is better, which is why 18 was chosen.

arent you the guy saying your being intentionally misinterpreted and your words are being twisted? your such a hypocrite:

i said 18 games because it makes zero sence anyone say Marner had 2 goals in 19, when he hasnt scored any in 18 in a row???? that is absolutely ridiculous. Sure if he scores the goals at game 10...but not when its the 19th gamw after 18 of none (and counting).

I decided to google "slump" and chose Montreal because I know they are a team with alot of bad to write about. This is one article from CBC, notice the sample sizes:

Montreal comes into Pittsburgh lugging a six-game losing streak (0-5-1) and the worst record in the Eastern Conference.

interesting they used only 6 games... that isnt a multiple of 5!

Beginning with their 6-0 drubbing of the Canadiens on Nov. 18 in Montreal, the Penguins have allowed 19 goals in 12 games (1.6 per game) and are 9-2-1, including a current four-game winning streak.

OMG a 12 game sample size!!! What the heck?Note that this was the very first article i opened, im 100% certain i could very easily find a lot more. Maybe your right too...please show me a stat where they throw stats at the very front end like you suggest is the norm, im sure it will be very easy for you to do..given its common place.

Now should i go back and quote YOUR posts where you accuse people of misrepresenting your posts?

it makes absolutely zero sense to say 2 goals in 19 games when he has 0 goals in 18 consecutive and to quote it the way you suggest would be the abnormal way and not the typical way. @leaffaninvancouver the question is for you too, show me all these 20 game samples where points in game 1 are included. for instance a 15 game sample where a player had 3 points in game 1 and 0 in the next 14. See above where the one article I opened didnt use the multiples of 5 you suggested.

 

[Dekes For Days]

i said 18 games because it makes zero sence anyone say Marner had 2 goals in 19, when he hasnt scored any in 18 in a row??

Using a 19 game sample size actually makes a lot more sense than using an 18 game sample size here, because at least that includes the entirety of the playoff series that you're looking at, instead of arbitrarily starting in the middle. You chose to focus exclusively on the type of production that is least relevant for him, with no context, over a specifically chosen sample that makes him look the worst, and as a result we get something that doesn't accurately represent his contributions or the quality of player he is.

 

[pucksakes666]

If he gets in playoffs this year he’ll be sniping GWG like Justin Williams would in game 7’s

 

[ponder]

Marner's shot is probably the weakest part of his arsenal but it's not exactly a muffin. Maybe slightly below average? He just doesn't use it often and when it does, he doesnt use it as effectively as he could. We can all wish he would use it more often as he would probably score more but when he defers to his elite vision and the puck goes in so often, its tempting to go for the higher % play.

Personally I disagree. I think Marner is a great player, ELITE puck handler/playmaker, so shifty and creative, strong defensively, but … his shot sucks. He scores goals because he can get into absolute prime shooting position very frequently, but he sucks at finishing one there.

Yeah, it’s a good shot compared to you or I, but compared to NHL forwards, it’s weak - soft and not overly accurate either. Bottom 10% of NHL forwards IMO. On the PP, one timers from the a lot are normally absolutely deadly, but Marner gets them all the time and basically never scores. Other teams will basically give him that shot, even though it’s a deadly position for a good shooter.

For example, how would you rate the top 12 Leafs forwards in terms of their shots? Not goal scoring ability, which is a lot about ability to get into prime shooting positions (which Mitch is great at), just the shot in isolation - power, accuracy, speed of release, ability to change the angle, consistency even when off-balance, etc. I think I’d go:

• Matthews
• Spezza
• Tavares
• Nylander
• Bunting
• Simmonds
• Kase
• Engvall
• Ritchie
• Kerfoot
• Marner
• Kampf

 

[cyris]

Marner scores goals in ways that he will go to the front of net, he will deke and open a goalie up. He is skilled enough to make up for his lack of a shot. But the fact that he can score 20 goals a season should not undermine is subpar shooting ability.

Why are we judging a playmaker and elite 2 way winger by his goal scoring abilities anyway?

 

[Zybalto]

Personally I disagree. I think Marner is a great player, ELITE puck handler/playmaker, so shifty and creative, strong defensively, but … his shot sucks. He scores goals because he can get into absolute prime shooting position very frequently, but he sucks at finishing one there.

Yeah, it’s a good shot compared to you or I, but compared to NHL forwards, it’s weak - soft and not overly accurate either. Bottom 10% of NHL forwards IMO. On the PP, one timers from the a lot are normally absolutely deadly, but Marner gets them all the time and basically never scores. Other teams will basically give him that shot, even though it’s a deadly position for a good shooter.

For example, how would you rate the top 12 Leafs forwards in terms of their shots? Not goal scoring ability, which is a lot about ability to get into prime shooting positions (which Mitch is great at), just the shot in isolation. I think I’d go:

• Matthews
• Spezza
• Tavares
• Nylander
• Bunting
• Simmonds
• Kase
• Engvall
• Ritchie
• Kerfoot
• Marner
• Kampf

I don't think Marner is near the bottom 10% in the league, more 30-40% area.

For some reason, he really cooled off on the PP the last 80 games though.

From 2017-2020, he shot 13+% on the PP in almost 600 minutes (around the same as Spezza his first season), mainly on snipes, scoring as many goals as Tavares over that time and we all know how many he has since then in 200+ minutes. It's really sort of strange. On that list, I'd have him maybe a couple of spots higher (above Kerfoot for sure) as the Leafs are a really good shooting team. There are certainly lots of highlights of him sniping nice goals out there 5v5 the last 2 years, thats for sure. They just havnt gone in on the PP. It's not just that he is good at getting to scoring areas, he also has a sneaky quick shot too. I'm not saying it's great but it isn't a complete flub like some are painting.

It's why his goal scoring comparables are these guys the last 4 years:

PLD
O'Reilly
Benn
Kessel
Couture
RNH
Monahan
Larkin
B.Tkatchuk
Horvat

...and thats with him not scoring on the PP the last 80 games. He's an elite playmaker that will also get you 20-25 goals a year. If he can get the PP going again, 30 a season isnt out of the question and for a guy who is a top playermaker and defensive winger, thats just an insanely well rounded game.

 

[Zybalto]

Why are we judging a playmaker and elite 2 way winger by his goal scoring abilities anyway?

...and why are we doing it in an appreciation thread?

...because we have to find a scapegoat for the playoff failures (and in grand Leafs tradition, have to point in the worst direction possible)

 

[cyris]

...and why are we doing it in an appreciation thread?

...because we have to find a scapegoat for the playoff failures (and in grand Leafs tradition, have to point in the worst direction possible)

Never mind the fact that the guy Leafs fans have decided to point out as the one at fault for all our playoff failures leads the team in postseason points since he joined the team.

It’s all his fault and we must use the most biased argument we can come up with to prove it

 

[Caroline Says ll]

Why are we judging a playmaker and elite 2 way winger by his goal scoring abilities anyway?

...and why are we doing it in an appreciation thread?

...because we have to find a scapegoat for the playoff failures (and in grand Leafs tradition, have to point in the worst direction possible)

This just completely proves my point on my original post in this thread about Marner. This thread is just filled with those that cannot wait to knock Marner down a peg or those that will immediately label anyone a hater or disregard any point if it is the slightest bit of critique.

Im not scapegoating Marner. In a post gushing about his skating, his selke level d, his penalty killing, his vision, his stick and edge work - I addresses how it is strange that in those categories he is in the upper echelon of players, but then in one category he falls off to I feel is below average shooting. Its confusing to me because it is not common for players who are so skilled in so many things to be so less skilled at another thing. It would be as if Matthews struggled to make passes around the net. An even average wrist shot would launch Marner easily into the top 10 forwards on the league.

But yes call me a hater for simply discussing rationally and respectfully an aspect of Marner's game that is a weakness.

 

[Notsince67]

This just completely proves my point on my original post in this thread about Marner. This thread is just filled with those that cannot wait to knock Marner down a peg or those that will immediately label anyone a hater or disregard any point if it is the slightest bit of critique.

Im not scapegoating Marner. In a post gushing about his skating, his selke level d, his penalty killing, his vision, his stick and edge work - I addresses how it is strange that in those categories he is in the upper echelon of players, but then in one category he falls off to I feel is below average shooting. Its confusing to me because it is not common for players who are so skilled in so many things to be so less skilled at another thing. It would be as if Matthews struggled to make passes around the net. An even average wrist shot would launch Marner easily into the top 10 forwards on the league.

But yes call me a hater for simply discussing rationally and respectfully an aspect of Marner's game that is a weakness.

....In an appreciation/tribute thread. How magnanimous.

 

[Gary Nylund]

so tired hearing about his contract... no one forced us to sign him

Like it or not, in the cap era, cap hit is a crucial part of how valuable a player is.

Never mind the fact that the guy Leafs fans have decided to point out as the one at fault for all our playoff failures leads the team in postseason points since he joined the team.

It’s all his fault and we must use the most biased argument we can come up with to prove it

It's hard to believe someone who has been here since 2008 could post such nonsense. Go read some threads about Andersen, he's probably the guy who's been scapegoated more than anyone else. You could start with posts by Zeke and Dekes for days, they've made literally hundreds of posts talking about how awesome the team in general is, and how goaltending is the reason we lost to Boston, CLB and MTL. And when you're done there, you can read about Kadri, Matthews, Keefe, Dubas ... there is plenty of blame to go around and the list goes on. I have not seen one single person say Marner is to blame for all our playoff failures, not one!

....In an appreciation/tribute thread. How magnanimous.

I agree that people who only post the negative side of things are annoying, not just in appreciation threads but in all threads and the same goes for the "everything is awesome crowd". But what can you do, there are crazies everywhere so of course there will be some in a fan base with millions of people. But every appreciation thread I've ever seen has had some mention of the less than perfect aspects of whoever is being discussed and it seems rather snowflaky to make a whiny post every single time someone respectfully points out a part of Marner's game that could use some improvement, even while acknowledging his excellence in other areas.

Cliff notes: Stop sniveling and save your hate for the haters.

 

[mclaren55]

Whether or not you think it's good, it is better, which is why 18 was chosen.

I didn't state what I thought. I just thought it was kind of arbitrary either way.

 

[ULF_55]

It's not a common multiple, it's not a divisible portion of a season, it's not a full playoff series, it's not a representative sample size, etc. Literally the only reason to choose 18 is because Marner scored 2 goals the game prior.

It isn't uncommon to use a streak, goal scoring streak, shut-out streak, point streak, goalless streak.

Regardless marner's forte isn't scoring anyway, it is puck distribution, and when Matthews is cold it directly impacts marner's production.

 

[ACC1224]

This just completely proves my point on my original post in this thread about Marner. This thread is just filled with those that cannot wait to knock Marner down a peg or those that will immediately label anyone a hater or disregard any point if it is the slightest bit of critique.

Im not scapegoating Marner. In a post gushing about his skating, his selke level d, his penalty killing, his vision, his stick and edge work - I addresses how it is strange that in those categories he is in the upper echelon of players, but then in one category he falls off to I feel is below average shooting. Its confusing to me because it is not common for players who are so skilled in so many things to be so less skilled at another thing. It would be as if Matthews struggled to make passes around the net. An even average wrist shot would launch Marner easily into the top 10 forwards on the league.

But yes call me a hater for simply discussing rationally and respectfully an aspect of Marner's game that is a weakness.

IMO, your posts seem pretty fair and reasonable unlike so many others.

As far as his shot goes, to me it's just a flaw in his game that people need to get past. It certainly isn't great but I think it's overblown how weak it's portrayed(not necessarily you). I think once people stop accepting this weakness and look past it, like many have now with Nylander, it's much easier to appreciate the player.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Nope, no toxic Leafs "fans" around here.

I'm gonna go with the thread title instead of what those illiterate goofs are doing.

Reining top RW in hockey (1st team NHL all star)
First Leafs winger to be voted top ten for the Selke in ages
Most primary assists in the NHL of anyone other than McDavid since the start of the 2017 season. Possibly the greatest playmaker to ever play for the Leafs.

He gets crapped on as the Leafs ran into 3 of the top 10 goalkeepers of the last 3 playoffs at the same time Toronto's big shooters went cold (these things may be connected) but his 5v5 xGF% in the playoffs ranks 1st among all 183 players with 200+ minutes the last 2 playoffs (and first by a mile) No player tilted the ice more when it came to 5v5 quality scoring chances than Marner. Switch the goalies the last 2 playoffs and Marner is probably near the top of the playoffs scoring and the Leafs are going on a run.

With those elite stats moving forward, it's easy to bet big on him really breaking out this playoffs, especially with a healthy Matthews beside him (and hopefully healthy, Muzzin, Tavares, etc.)

The obsession with his salary is just plain weird as well as he obviously didn't negotiate it (so why blame him?) and if you really had to rank it, he'd be above average if you had to rank him out of the players making 10 mlillion+ (I'll throw in Seguin as he's close enough at 9.85):

McDavid
Panarin
Matthews
Karlsson
Tavares
Doughty
Marner
Price
Kane
Toews
Bobrovsky
Kopitar
Eichel
Seguin

How many of those players do you even take over Marner? A bunch of them are past their primes or crap defensively or just plain hurt all the time. I'd say he is certainly above average for value here. The fury over his salary is brain dead IMO.

Elite two-way player. Full stop.

No offence but your list sucks. Of course some of there players are overpaid and/or past their primes, that's what routinely happens when you are an elite player signing a contract as a UFA or when approaching UFA status. Marner was not in that position so most of there players on your list are not good compareables for Marner so they simply don't belong on that list. Marner was a RFA years away from UFA status which is why the contract he signed was a joke. Not his fault, can't blame anyone for taking the money if that's what's most important to him but it is disappointing to say the least that our GM had leverage but didn't use it.

Off the top of my head, there are 3 comparables on that list, the rest just don't belong. I take McDavid and Matthews over Marner, that's as easy at it gets. Eichel is harder, the two players are pretty close in value but of course we need to see if Eichel gets back to full health first, until he does that I will choose the healthy player.

Also interesting that you made a list of players making at least 10 million which is almost 10% less than Marner makes. That may not sound like much to you but 10% is actually a massive difference. If you don't think it is then try this thought experiment - what could the Leafs do with 10% more cap space?

You have made a lot of excellent posts showing Marner's value and I've said it before - he is a special player. But his contract is a clear overpayment and I'm surprised you're even trying to defend it. I suggest you stop trying to do that, even Zeke who is one of his biggest supporters has said he's overpaid so finding people to agree with you will be next to impossible. And if you are going to try, you need to do a much better job - comparing him to guys signed as UFA's with smaller cap hits isn't going to cut it.

The only way people will stop being unhappy with Marner's contract is to go deep in the playoffs, then people will be so happy that they simply won't care. Until then, probably best to just keep quiet and not draw more attention to his contract which is a clear overpayment and the only thing open to question, is just how big an overpayment was it (the consensus seems to be that 9 million was about right).

 

[Gary Nylund]

It isn't uncommon to use a streak, goal scoring streak, shut-out streak, point streak, goalless streak.

Regardless marner's forte isn't scoring anyway, it is puck distribution, and when Matthews is cold it directly impacts marner's production.

True enough, the flip side of that is that part of the reason that Marner gets so many assists is that Matthews is so good at finishing. And of course Matthews benefits from Marner in that same way and that's all pretty standard as elite players tend to play with other elite players. And I agree that Marner's forte is distribution so complaining about him scoring more would be about the same as complaining about Matthews not getting more assists, there are people complaining about that to be sure but it seems pretty pointless to me.

Cliff notes: Marner is in a bit of a scoring slump and while his shot could use some improvement for sure, it's perhaps not the huge issue some are making it out to be.

IMO, your posts seem pretty fair and reasonable unlike so many others.

As far as his shot goes, to me it's just a flaw in his game that people need to get past. It certainly isn't great but I think it's overblown how weak it's portrayed(not necessarily you). I think once people stop accepting this weakness and look past it, like many have now with Nylander, it's much easier to appreciate the player.

It probably is overblown, agreed. Zybalto made an interesting post earlier attempting to show his shot isn't even that bad, maybe there's some merit there, who knows. But you're probably right, people are pissed at Marner's contract so they need to find a reason to criticize and Marner is such a complete player that other than his shot, there's really not much else to criticize (Ok lack of playoff production might be another issue). At the same time, his shot could definitely use some improvement so it's understandable that people wonder why it's as bad as it is. But yeah it's his only clear weak spot, everything else about his game is probably very good to elite so overall he's a fantastic player, one fully deserving of a 9 million dollar contract.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I addresses how it is strange that in those categories he is in the upper echelon of players, but then in one category he falls off to I feel is below average shooting. Its confusing to me because it is not common for players who are so skilled in so many things to be so less skilled at another thing.

It's really not that strange to be elite at certain aspects of play, but more average in others. We've seen it a lot throughout NHL history. Would Marner be a better player if he had a better shot? Sure; you could say that about literally any player ever. What's strange is fans being upset that he's not literally perfect, instead of appreciating the amazing, unique things he can do and the ways in which he stands above the rest of the league. We didn't judge Thornton exclusively by his shooting talent, or Ovechkin exclusively by his playmaking ability, because that would be missing the majority of what they bring, and the things that make them elite.

 

[Notsince67]

Like it or not, in the cap era, cap hit is a crucial part of how valuable a player is.



It's hard to believe someone who has been here since 2008 could post such nonsense. Go read some threads about Andersen, he's probably the guy who's been scapegoated more than anyone else. You could start with posts by Zeke and Dekes for days, they've made literally hundreds of posts talking about how awesome the team in general is, and how goaltending is the reason we lost to Boston, CLB and MTL. And when you're done there, you can read about Kadri, Matthews, Keefe, Dubas ... there is plenty of blame to go around and the list goes on. I have not seen one single person say Marner is to blame for all our playoff failures, not one!

Who would do that? Nice straw man argument.

I agree that people who only post the negative side of things are annoying, not just in appreciation threads but in all threads and the same goes for the "everything is awesome crowd". But what can you do, there are crazies everywhere so of course there will be some in a fan base with millions of people. But every appreciation thread I've ever seen has had some mention of the less than perfect aspects of whoever is being discussed and it seems rather snowflaky to make a whiny post every single time someone respectfully points out a part of Marner's game that could use some improvement, even while acknowledging his excellence in other areas.

Cliff notes: Stop sniveling and save your hate for the haters.

Difficult to remember the last time Marner merited some real criticism. The so called "everything is awesome crowd" characterization is pretty much a distraction because they (meaning me included I guess) arent denying the fallibility but merely pointing out the very strong body of work in entirety. The constant virtual rioting by the few is exhausting. You call me winy or rather snowflaky yet feel that criticisms using flawed statistical sample sizes as a measure of conclusion is fair.

The contortions some people go through to appear even handed in the face of clear provocations by shit building engineers is weak and pathetic. It's either Stockholm syndrome or arrogance or both.

I'm a fan of the game and in particular the Leafs. I have been a leafs fan for decades and have stood unapologetically for that team when they were clearly crap. I knew they were crap but I still enjoyed the small victories such as the Orr McLaren shit kicking days. I didn't feel weak supporting a weak team because I didn't define them losing as being in a weak tribe. The tribalism here doesn't serve Leaf fandom. It serves to bolster the weak minded low self-esteem keyboard warriors with a promise of some power in their otherwise powerless lives. Lucky for them because in the days before the internet, the only thing they would have achieved with such caustic and aggressive communication was a decoration of bruises. The medium has become more civilized from a physical perspective but it most certainly isn't more polite or measured. It also fails to filter the dumb because voice is given to illogical premises through passive aggressive appeals to the middle by white nights who have a fondness of cliff notes over real books.

 

[Caroline Says ll]

....In an appreciation/tribute thread. How magnanimous.

Every single other player who has had an appreciation thread started has had some critiques of them. Some people will preface that Tavares has overcome his skating issues this season, others will point out the still see lazy streaks in Nylander.

I appreciate Marner enough to recognize that his upper level skills at all elements of the game that make him a special player. I cannot help but imagine an improved shot - just to make it a threat. This would launch Marner to new levels.

It would make coverage of him more difficult - especially playing with Matthews, as teams couldn't just focus mostly on the pass. It would make our powerplay even more lethal as they no longer leave the lane open for a Marner wrister as much as it currently is. If he is already a 90 point player and improved shot could had easily 10 mote points to that.

I do accept and appreciate Marner as he is. One of the best wingers in the game and a selke candidate. But I can still stress he should work on his shot as he is at an age where it can still be worked on and it would take nothing away from his current game.