Mitch Marner discussion

[Zybalto]

Guess I'll bump my post from Saurday:

Looking at Marner and the PP:

Since the start of the 2019 season:

PP with Marner (and leaguewide rank out of the 114 forwards with 300+ PP minutes):
Shot/60: 62.4 (28th out of 114, 2nd on the team)
Expected Goals/60: 8.23 (23rd out of 114, 2nd on the team)
Goals/60: 9.23 (26th out of 114, 3rd on the team)

PP without Marner:
Shot/60: 50.79
Expected Goals/60: 6.51
Goals/60: 7.35


Just this season (and leaguewide rank out of the 135 forwards with 50+ PP minutes):

PP with Marner:
Shot/60: 77.88 (1st out of 135, 1st on the team)
Expected Goals/60: 10.13 (5th out of 135, 1st on the team)
Goals/60: 9.94 (31st out of 135, 4th on the team)

PP without Marner:
Shot/60: 56.88
Expected Goals/60: 7.56
Goals/60: 12.77

The Leafs have certainly gotten some nice bounces on the PP in Marner's absence while Marner is still saddled somewhat with the low shooting% of the first few weeks.

Really strong PP overall numbers from Marner this year though.

 

[Gary Nylund]

just to ponder, how do you know it's not Muzzin that is the cancer eating away at the teams unity

speculation is no better than rumour or gossip

+1

Last guy I remember talking about a cancer on them team was Ballard. It was idiotic then, it's idiotic now and anyone talking about a cancer on the team can just f*** off as far as I'm concerned.

 

[ULF_55]

Has it really been 100 games? Yikes! I'm curious, what are the longest stretches without a goal for the other guys on our PP1 or even PP1 on other teams? That's a rhetorical question as I'm not curious enough to figure out where to find this information and I don't expect anyone else to do so either, just thinking about just how unlikely a 100 game stretch is but it sure does seem like a lot, like maybe some kind of record even. Really hope he scores one soon so we can stop thinking about this.

For the heck of it, last year:

 

[Mess]

You could go back to Marner on the PP and if it goes back to the sh1ts, then it should be clearer as to what the problem is.

I don't believe Marner is the problem, he simply is not the solution if the goal is scoring on the PP is the obvious measure of success, and which Marner hasn't done dating back to 3 seasons ago now in 2019-20.

Marner also hasn't scored a single goal let alone a PP goal in Leafs last 18 playoff games all resulting in first round losses by Toronto. If you have now added players like Spezza, Kase, and Bunting who all score PP goals >> rate than Marner and the goal is to advance beyond round #1 then wouldn't an improved PP#1 unit be in the teams best interest of advancement and make one wonder WHAT IF is best for the team?

1 more PP goal here and there can swing a playoff series in a different direction and Leafs have now gotten an opportunity out of injury replacement to see that Leafs might in fact have better options available internally. Deductive reasoning would suggest Leafs PP is not missing playmakers, it appears to be missing goal scorers, which has resulted in less goals for and not more when the clear objective is to score.

Overall the Leafs play has struggled without Marner, who are better when he is playing, but the PP has excelled based on the results.

*** The regular season should be the testing period to prepare one for the playoffs.

 

[ACC1224]

just to ponder, how do you know it's not Muzzin that is the cancer eating away at the teams unity

speculation is no better than rumour or gossip

Anyone who thinks he's a cancer shouldn't be given any attention.

We go from the contract, to over the glass, to a cancer.
This board use to be way more insightful.

 

[Zybalto]

For the heck of it, last year:

View attachment 491613

Thats what kind of strange.

From the start of 2017 to the end of 2020, among his comparables for PP goal-scoring rates (players within .25/60 PP goals) were:

McDavid
Kucherov
Barkov
Marchand
Huberdeau
Panarin
Kane
etc..

....and he picked up his goal-scoring everywhere else so it was hard to see it happening in real time.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Can we stop changing the thread title to stupid things? This is multiple times now.

 

[therealkoho]

I'm actually not trying to defend the contract in terms of it's real value, I'm trying to defend the fact it is some kind of bad contract relative to the rest of the 10 million+ contracts. I understand the UFA/RFA stuff but just looking at the contracts based on merit:

McDavid: Obviously a fine contract but has only won a single playoff game since he signed it in 2017.
Panarin: Similar elite regular-season production to Marner but also similar playoff production(outside of the miracle first round against the Bolts) with worse D. Overpaid maybe a mil.
Matthews: Looking to be a generational goal scorer and contract is fine.
Karlsson: Huge disappointment and obvious overpayment
Tavares: Steady eddie top end production and great leader but overpaid a couple mil.
Doughty: You can blame the team but again a disappointment (although underlying numbers far better than Karlsson)
Marner: Production in line with Panarin except less goals and better D. Due to him being an elite 2-way force, you can really feel when he's out of the lineup.
Price: Great big game goalie but injured half the time and not going to even be a factor this post season. Overpaid.
Kane: Still top end production but on a team going nowhere and suspect D. Overpaid
Toews: Out of his prime and working to get back to a top-end guy. Overpaid
Bobrovsky: Looking better this year but one of the reasons Florida didnt make more noise last year. Overpaid.
Kopitar: Still a top center but is he worth more than Tavares? Overpaid a couple mil
Eichel: Out with what could be a career changing injury. Lets see if he can get back to what he was, which was overpaid a mil.
Seguin: Completely fell off partly due to injuries. Well overpaid.

As you can see, I somwhat agree with the 9 million number you float around (I would say 9.5ish) but also have to remind you that elite talent always gets paid more, and Marner is actually one of the top paid guys that is living up to his contract comparatively. I listed these guys based on highest paid to least highest paid but in terms of value?

McDavid
Matthews
Panarin
Marner
Tavares
Kopitar
Doughty
Bobrovsky
Karlsson
Price
Toews
Seguin
Eichel

Does this look good as a ranking of the top 14 highest-paid players are bringing in relation to their contracts? If not, let me know why.

being overpaid, GM's overpaying, players not living up to the contract is symptomatic of the state of the NHL, until they figure out a way to overcome the greed gene it's what we have in a free market

It doesn't matter what anybody thinks a player is worth, once the contract is done it's done and there are only two ways out of it really, contract expiration or contract termination. I've never really understood why people piss and moan about something they, nor all the wishing in the world can change!

A players performance and value to a team through on ice contributions and off ice community relations is the only thing that matters, at least to me.

 

[ACC1224]

being overpaid, GM's overpaying, players not living up to the contract is symptomatic of the state of the NHL, until they figure out a way to overcome the greed gene it's what we have in a free market

It doesn't matter what anybody thinks a player is worth, once the contract is done it's done and there are only two ways out of it really, contract expiration or contract termination. I've never really understood why people piss and moan about something they, nor all the wishing in the world can change!

A players performance and value to a team through on ice contributions and off ice community relations is the only thing that matters, at least to me.

Once a contract is signed, criticism of it is now solely on the GM.

 

[Gary Nylund]

being overpaid, GM's overpaying, players not living up to the contract is symptomatic of the state of the NHL, until they figure out a way to overcome the greed gene it's what we have in a free market

It doesn't matter what anybody thinks a player is worth, once the contract is done it's done and there are only two ways out of it really, contract expiration or contract termination. I've never really understood why people piss and moan about something they, nor all the wishing in the world can change!

A players performance and value to a team through on ice contributions and off ice community relations is the only thing that matters, at least to me.

Nothing anyone posts ever in this forum changes anything, yet here we are, discussing this, that and the other thing.

The only thing that matters to me is not player performance, but rather team performance. If a player is overpaid then that contract has an impact on the quality of team that we can put on the ice. In this cap era, cap hits are very relevant and just as worthy of discussion as 99% of everything else that's discussed here.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Yeah, the PP streak they have been is likely unsustainable with or without marner.

Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, Rielly, Kase

Might be one player on that list who isn't the same?

Anyone have a trendline of the PP?

Honestly I think the reason our PP has been so deadly lately is the fluidity of the players. Not the personnel. The PP was on fire with Marner there as well. It just took a meteoric rise once he left. I think it's more coincidence than anything TBH. It's a level of efficiency that's just not sustainable. They are just getting the right bounces fall their way right now.

What is encouraging is that you are seeing far more rotation from the players themselves. Auston Matthews being the most obvious example of this. He's scored from almost every spot on the PP. Bumper, back door, and both walls. It's almost impossible for PK'ers to keep within a structure when your main focus is constantly moving like he has been. They are also working the puck down low way more than ever before, which draws PK'ers out of position.

Kase has done well below the goal line, and has shown an aggressive nature to put the puck toward the net and score more playoff style goals. ie. crashing the net. So I am not entirely opposed to keeping him there, but I also don't think leaving Marner off of PP1 is smart.

They just need to keep the puck movement unpredictable. Way to much working the puck around the umbrella last year. Extremely predictable. This year there is way more puck support, and guys are hardly ever pinched off on the walls. There seems to always be 2 outlets available which was never the case last year

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

PP with Marner:
Shot/60: 77.88 (1st out of 135, 1st on the team)
Expected Goals/60: 10.13 (5th out of 135, 1st on the team)
Goals/60: 9.94 (31st out of 135, 4th on the team)

PP without Marner:
Shot/60: 56.88
Expected Goals/60: 7.56
Goals/60: 12.77

This is the problem with Mitch. He can dominate PKers, run circles around them, create opportune chances. But he cannot finish. He knows that, PKers know that, goalies know that. So they can pretty much eliminate him shooting the puck and focus on the Matthews and Nylanders. When you replace him with Spezza or Kase, sure you might create less, but both those guys are better shooters than Marner. Goalies can't cheat to Auston. They have to respect those other guys. Less chances but more goals

 

[therealkoho]

Nothing anyone posts ever in this forum changes anything, yet here we are, discussing this, that and the other thing.

The only thing that matters to me is not player performance, but rather team performance. If a player is overpaid then that contract has an impact on the quality of team that we can put on the ice. In this cap era, cap hits are very relevant and just as worthy of discussion as 99% of everything else that's discussed here.

of course I get that part of the argument and understand it fully, my puzzlement is the poster that cannot separate the player from the pay, keeps harping on it and making the same general statements about the players character, level of maturity and so on. Once the puck drops none of those things matter, and yet even in game threads there is that very poster saying the same nonsensical things they say in every thread about things they have absolutely no knowledge of.

jus sayin

 

[Antropovsky]

Nothing anyone posts ever in this forum changes anything, yet here we are, discussing this, that and the other thing.

The only thing that matters to me is not player performance, but rather team performance. If a player is overpaid then that contract has an impact on the quality of team that we can put on the ice. In this cap era, cap hits are very relevant and just as worthy of discussion as 99% of everything else that's discussed here.

agreed - look at the other boards and you will find discussions of contract on all of them. If your on these boards wanting to cancel existing contract talk then you have a very large job ahead of you and i suggest contacting sports shows too.... fact is we arebt stuck with Marner just because our GM signed him. At this point if a discussion is being had about him then its whether or not we have a better chance of winning with 11 million spent on him or 11 million elsewhere. What happens if he underperforms in a 3rd playoff? is this thread gonna do a 180? or is everyone gonna still be upset that people want to discuss his impact in relation to his contract? fact of the matter is if he does, Dubas will be likely fired or will be exoected to move him. Considering Dubas went from we will not be moving Marner and itd unfair how hes being treated (two playoffs ago) to well we dont think now is the right time to discuss breaking the core up but we lack a killer instinct (something a long those lines)

regardless im on the fence with him, i could see him proving me wrong because he certainly has alot of supporters and i definitely could be wrong. but my biggest concern is his lack of top end speed - once playoffs speeds increase and body checking, he seems to struggle to adapt to it.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

Salary caps should not even be legal

 

[ShaneFalco]

so 79 games right there without a PP goal and in 2018-19:

19 games

 

[ShaneFalco]

There is obviously no problem with putting one of the best PP players in the league back on a team's #1 PP

There is - the PP has been sub-par, predictable, slow and he can't score. How that makes him one of the best PP players in the league is baffling

 

[Zybalto]

This is the problem with Mitch. He can dominate PKers, run circles around them, create opportune chances. But he cannot finish. He knows that, PKers know that, goalies know that. So they can pretty much eliminate him shooting the puck and focus on the Matthews and Nylanders. When you replace him with Spezza or Kase, sure you might create less, but both those guys are better shooters than Marner. Goalies can't cheat to Auston. They have to respect those other guys. Less chances but more goals

Repost from earlier:

Thats what kind of strange.

From the start of 2017 to the end of 2020, among his comparables for PP goal-scoring rates (players within .25/60 PP goals) were:

McDavid
Kucherov
Barkov
Marchand
Huberdeau
Panarin
Kane
etc..

....and he picked up his goal-scoring everywhere else so it was hard to see it happening in real time.

For 3 seasons Marner was in fact scoring a decent amount on the PP including sniping goals....and the PP has been way better with him that without him even when hes not scoring in his time here.

There may be an argument to spread things around more and if the current PP is clicking due to his absence (although shots/scoring chance creation is higher with him) and we can obviously use the luxery of having him on the 2nd PP. It's just that 6 games is not nearly enough time to make that call IMO.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There is - the PP has been sub-par, predictable, slow and he can't score.

Except none of that is true. There is obviously no problem with putting one of the best PP players in the league back on a team's #1 PP.

 

[Gary Nylund]

of course I get that part of the argument and understand it fully, my puzzlement is the poster that cannot separate the player from the pay, keeps harping on it and making the same general statements about the players character, level of maturity and so on. Once the puck drops none of those things matter, and yet even in game threads there is that very poster saying the same nonsensical things they say in every thread about things they have absolutely no knowledge of.

jus sayin

I feel your pain but what can I say, this place is what it is, nothing you can do about it. I suggest you stay away from the GDT's, that should help your overall experience at least a little bit. I rarely visit them but just a few minutes there is enough to know that whatever issues you have with the way discussions are around here, they're a hundred times worse in GDT's.

 

[SprDaVE]

As a temporary measure, I've suggested for awhile to give Marner the 2nd PP. Not as a demotion per say but just to reduce his minutes and expectations on the PP where it feels like he forces far too many plays. It's a perfect time to do that but we'll see in a couple weeks.

After a few PP shifts or after a few games, re-evaluate and go from there. Marner will be back on the top unit at some point and hopefully he'll be better for it.

 

[therealkoho]

agreed - look at the other boards and you will find discussions of contract on all of them. If your on these boards wanting to cancel existing contract talk then you have a very large job ahead of you and i suggest contacting sports shows too.... fact is we arebt stuck with Marner just because our GM signed him. At this point if a discussion is being had about him then its whether or not we have a better chance of winning with 11 million spent on him or 11 million elsewhere. What happens if he underperforms in a 3rd playoff? is this thread gonna do a 180? or is everyone gonna still be upset that people want to discuss his impact in relation to his contract? fact of the matter is if he does, Dubas will be likely fired or will be exoected to move him. Considering Dubas went from we will not be moving Marner and itd unfair how hes being treated (two playoffs ago) to well we dont think now is the right time to discuss breaking the core up but we lack a killer instinct (something a long those lines)

regardless im on the fence with him, i could see him proving me wrong because he certainly has alot of supporters and i definitely could be wrong. but my biggest concern is his lack of top end speed - once playoffs speeds increase and body checking, he seems to struggle to adapt to it.

the thing is we all understand the impact his contract or Matty's or JT's or Jakes, or Morgans has on the cap and once the puck is dropped it makes absolutely no impact on the level of play, they either do their jobs or they don't.

Doing their jobs or not doing their jobs is not attributable to the contract. Marners' playoff production the last couple of years, was for him abysmal, a full 30% of his PPG average, but then so was everyone elses' with the exception of Willie Ny over the last two years, but yet Mitch takes the brunt of the fans ire, because well! Contract. Does JT? nope! how bout Matty, again nope!

Why the ire for Marner who is an elite player and has led the team in scoring every year he's put the uniform on! No one player is the sole reason for a win or a loss.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Honestly if our PP is running at 30% and Marner doesn't score ever again who cares? The problem is when it's running at 10% and we do the same thing over and over again (like putting Marner in a spot he can't score from) The PP has looked so much better because it's fluid now. When guys like Matthews, Nylander, and Marner aren't stationary and are rotating all over the ice it makes it tough for the PK's to stick to their gameplan.

 

[Notsince67]

I keep on saying if Toronto is going to trade one of Matthews, Nylander or Marner you trade Marner

1 - Greater return
2 - More cap space
3 - Scorers >>> Playmakers

You keep saying it for what purpose?

 

[ShaneFalco]

Except none of that is true. There is obviously no problem with putting one of the best PP players in the league back on a team's #1 PP.

Ok we're done here