Mitch Marner Discussion Continued

[Dekes For Days]

You didn't mention "general sentiment" in your original comment did you?

I also didn't say you said specifically that, but that didn't stop you from jumping to conclusions.

And no you didn't "back up your position" with stats, your position was the stats.

That's not true at all. I gave you both my position, and the statistics, which supported my position.

Here's the problem with stats in a nutshell - they never tell you the full story.

On the contrary, statistics are extremely valuable because they help you see the whole true story, outside of personal biases, and understand why things happened as they did.

all kinds of "expected" stats are subjective

Are you seriously calling statistics subjective while promoting exclusively using the "eye test"?

And if the numbers tell a completely different story from what you're seeing with your own eyes, an thinking person would question the accuracy of the numbers instead of blindly accepting them.

But the numbers don't tell a completely different story than what I saw with my own eyes. The numbers tell a very similar story to what I saw with my own eyes. If the numbers tell a completely different story from what somebody is seeing with their own eyes, they should probably question the accuracy of their own eyes instead of demanding that their personal perception is fact.

BTW, I assume you've heard of scoring effects - did it ever occur to you that this might have impacted some of these numbers?

If looking at the score adjusted numbers, that would probably put it a bit closer to an even 50%, which doesn't really change the underlying point.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The issues with your first point is that the leafs may have had the advantage in corsi, scoring chances etc. But that doesn't take into account if you are whiffing your shots or putting it right into the goalies chest.

For the record, pucks hitting goalies doesn't always mean somebody took a bad shot. It can also be a result of a goaltender playing very well - taking good positioning, reacting fast, cutting off angles, and eating up rebounds.

I remember quite a few excellent shots that we didn't "whif on" or "put right into the goalie's chest". Do you have anything to back up the idea that we were doing that an unusual amount?

One of the reason those goalies may have had such good save percentages is due to the leaf shooters choking

But we're not just talking about against us.

I believe the best series save percentages wise for those goalies were all against the leafs

That's not true.

In 2018-2019, Rask had a better save percentage in 2 of his 3 other series; only posting worse against the Cup champions.
In 2019-2020, Korpisalo had a better save percentage against us than Tampa (his only other series), but he posted the exact same results through the first portion of that series, set a playoff save record the game after our series, and still ended with a pretty elite 0.932 against the Cup champions.
In 2020-2021, Price had a better save percentage in 2 of his 3 other series; only posting worse against the Cup champions.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

For the record, pucks hitting goalies doesn't always mean somebody took a bad shot. It can also be a result of a goaltender playing very well - taking good positioning, reacting fast, cutting off angles, and eating up rebounds.

I remember quite a few excellent shots that we didn't "whif on" or "put right into the goalie's chest". Do you have anything to back up the idea that we were doing that an unusual amount?

But we're not just talking about against us.

That's not true.

In 2018-2019, Rask had a better save percentage in 2 of his 3 other series; only posting worse against the Cup champions.
In 2019-2020, Korpisalo had a better save percentage against us than Tampa (his only other series), but he posted the exact same results through the first portion of that series, set a playoff save record the game after our series, and still ended with a pretty elite 0.932 against the Cup champions.
In 2020-2021, Price had a better save percentage in 2 of his 3 other series; only posting worse against the Cup champions.

That is fair, definitely good goalie positioning etc involved. I also agree the opposing goalies did make good saves. Obviously. To back it up I would say the leafs shooting percetage (particularly players like Matthews) is way below their regular season average I would think from the players i checked. Also from watching every game but I know that doesn't count with you.

To be honest I don't really include the Boston series as that was a tightly contested series between 2 evenly matched teams but fair enough. So Korpisalo had best against the leafs and price sv% vs Vegas was essentially the exact same as the leafs with the only better save perctage coming in the sweep vs the Jets. So essentially your saying that Price and Rask didn't even need to play at their best to shutdown the leafs best players. That is worrisome. I wonder why will happen when they run into an actually very hot goalie by your standards lol

 

[Mugzy97]

Yes again he never won anything as a youth not so much as 1 single GTHL title .. never won again big elite AAAA springs tournaments (except year he came to play for our spring team) .. and only was successful in 1 year when da playoff teams broke in direction of Knights and even then every big goal was scored by either Tzcchuk or Dvorak .. we were all in same soup bowl as our kids all grew up together playing in same rinks and same tournaments .. if you want to talk individual games or tournaments just ask I was on bench for most of them

Just because you allegedly know them doesn’t make you a hockey expert

 

[Arthur Morgan]

If Marner thinks its bad now.....JUST wait till we all get to see Seth Jarvis play ad everyone realized Marner's greedy ass cost us Jarvis

 

[Sypher04]

If Marner thinks its bad now.....JUST wait till we all get to see Seth Jarvis play ad everyone realized Marner's greedy ass cost us Jarvis

huh?

 

[egd27]

Score adjusted playoff 5v5 xGF%/60 the last two years..........

Ya lost me right there.

 

[Ashdown2]

If Marner thinks its bad now.....JUST wait till we all get to see Seth Jarvis play ad everyone realized Marner's greedy ass cost us Jarvis

who and what ?

 

[Dekes For Days]

To back it up I would say the leafs shooting percetage (particularly players like Matthews) is way below their regular season average I would think from the players i checked.

Our shooting percentage was lower in those series, but the question is what makes you attribute that to one of the best shooting teams "whiffing" or "shooting into the goalies chest", instead of excellent play by some of the best playoff goaltenders of the past 3 years, especially when the goaltending results extended beyond just us.

So essentially your saying that Price and Rask didn't even need to play at their best to shutdown the leafs best players.

No, that's not what's being said. Even when facing extremely hot goaltending, and dealing with some pretty significant injuries, we still had a very good chance of winning, and only lost by the slimmest of margins.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

huh?

cost to move Marleau so we could resign Marner to his crazy contract. should have bridged him and kept that 1st we sent to Carolina

 

[Dekes For Days]

If Marner thinks its bad now.....JUST wait till we all get to see Seth Jarvis play ad everyone realized Marner's greedy ass cost us Jarvis

Lou cost us the 1st by signing Marleau to a horrible anchor contract. Really odd to blame Marner.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Lou cost us the 1st by signing Marleau to a horrible anchor contract.

yeah Lou takes more blame obviously but still Marner holding out for that crazy high number is prob the reason we had to pay that 1st to move Marleau. if we had the option for a say 3x 7-8m or something I think we could have figured another way around. however we will never really know

 

[Dekes For Days]

yeah Lou takes more blame obviously but still Marner holding out for that crazy high number is prob the reason we had to pay that 1st to move Marleau. if we had the option for a say 3x 7-8m or something I think we could have figured another way around. however we will never really know

We could have bridged Marner, but issues that would bring aside, I'm not sure why you think that would have prevented us from having to trade Marleau. Bridging Marner would not have saved us anywhere close to 6.25m.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

We could have bridged Marner, but issues that would bring aside, I'm not sure why you think that would have prevented us from having to trade Marleau. Bridging Marner would not have saved us anywhere close to 6.25m.

now that I think of it my comment was pretty stupid. we basically used Marleaus cap to resign Kapanen and AJ

 

[diceman934]

Unless Barb can help him with his shot, I don't see how this is going to help. Say what you want about Money, he's an excellent skater.

The guy could not be more wrong. One of the best skaters in the league. As for his assertion that he never scored big goals in the playoffs etc. such a joke. His kid did not and Marner lead the Knights to the playoffs and the Mem cup

Yes again he never won anything as a youth not so much as 1 single GTHL title .. never won again big elite AAAA springs tournaments (except year he came to play for our spring team) .. and only was successful in 1 year when da playoff teams broke in direction of Knights and even then every big goal was scored by either Tzcchuk or Dvorak .. we were all in same soup bowl as our kids all grew up together playing in same rinks and same tournaments .. if you want to talk individual games or tournaments just ask I was on bench for most of them

what birth year group did Marner play with growing up? Best player on the knights every year after his draft year. Sorry you are jealous of him as he is an elite player in the NHL your kids is not.

 

[diceman934]

If Marner thinks its bad now.....JUST wait till we all get to see Seth Jarvis play ad everyone realized Marner's greedy ass cost us Jarvis

Put down the bottle man.
Marner was not greedy. He got what the going rate was being handed out by a gm who was out of his league. Mathews got paid much more as his deal was only 5years and not one UFA year.

 

[egd27]

Lou cost us the 1st by signing Marleau to a horrible anchor contract. Really odd to blame Marner.

Nonsense.

Signing 4 players to $40M in cap forced the Leafs to need to dump Marleau after 2 years. Yes, it was a bad contract, but without those 4 signings they could have just let it play out.

Not Marners fault, not Matthews fault, not Nylander's fault, not Tavares' fault, not Lou's fault.

It stemmed from a series of decisions made by Kyle Dubas.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Put down the bottle man.
Marner was not greedy. He got what the going rate was being handed out by a gm who was out of his league. Mathews got paid much more as his deal was only 5years and not one UFA year.

He got 1 UFA year.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not Marners fault, not Matthews fault, not Nylander's fault, not Tavares' fault, not Lou's fault.

Not any of the player's faults of course, but absolutely Lou's fault. He's the one that signed the horrible contract; the consequences of that horrible contract are on him. I always find it amusing when people advocate for the alternative of making the team worse so that we could carry a 6.25m liability on the ice. Which would of course also be blamed on Dubas. What a great no-win situation that was left by Lou.

 

[ToneDog]

now that I think of it my comment was pretty stupid. we basically used Marleaus cap to resign Kapanen and AJ

Not really. Bridging Marner for 3x8m saves you $3m which could be retained for Marleau and the cost to dump Marleau would have been less than a first. In hindsight, Dubas should have bridged at least one of Marner or Matthews. Not overpaying both would also have helped.

 

[Zybalto]

Did some math in another thread and couldnt help positing it in here.

Points/game in the 5 elimination playoff games the last two years for the Leafs stars:
Matthews: 1.0
Nylander: 1.0
Marner: 0.8

Points/game in the 5 elimination playoff games for Tampa this year:
Point: 0.8
Kucherov: 0.6
Stamkos: 0.2

With all the emphasis on clutch point production coming from a bunch of folks, It seems the Leafs stars have much better production in big games and have been more clutch than the Tampa stars this year. Bolts are damn lucky the rest of the team bailed out these spineless no-shows eh? Sure Kucherov scored a ton of point in other games but where was he when the team needed him most?

 

[ToneDog]

Did some math in another thread and couldnt help positing it in here.

Points/game in the 5 elimination playoff games the last two years for the Leafs stars:
Matthews: 1.0
Nylander: 1.0
Marner: 0.8

Points/game in the 5 elimination playoff games for Tampa this year:
Point: 0.8
Kucherov: 0.6
Stamkos: 0.2

With all the emphasis on clutch point production coming from a bunch of folks, It seems the Leafs stars have much better production in big games and have been more clutch than the Tampa stars this year. Bolts are damn lucky the rest of the team bailed out these spineless no-shows eh? Sure Kucherov scored a ton of point in other games but where was he when the team needed him most?

Yet Tampa closes out series and we don't. What is the moral of the story ?? Goaltending ? Forward depth ?? Our stars score meaningless goals ??

 

[Zybalto]

Yet Tampa closes out series and we don't. What is the moral of the story ?? Goaltending ? Forward depth ?? Our stars score meaningless goals ??

You got it exactly right the first two times sprinkled in with some injury issues

I mean, when Toronto outshoots their opposition 175-132 and goaltending in elimination games the last 2 years is:

Opposition Goaltending: .943%
Leafs Goaltending: .879%

.....then I'm pretty sure goaltending was an issue.

Tampa's is basically the other way around. It's not just our goaltending that has failed but the others teams that has risen to the occasion.

Depth scoring in elimination games has also been awful combined with the fact depth player giveaways have led directly to games lost. The next thing I'm gonna look at is our stars scoring vs. the whole rest of the team and I'm pretty sure I know whats coming.

I think the salary stuff, of which Marner had very little to do, has driven some people crazy around here though.....even big Marner fans as they feel he hasnt done enough to justify all their defenses of him but so much of it is driven by bad narratives and people are dug in too deep.

The truth is that Marner/Matthews should take a little more heat because they should have scored more....because they were playing so well (even Matthews with his damaged wrist) that their point totals should have better reflected their chances (lots of posts hit and shots just wide of open nets). I guess they get a pass due to the injury a bit on that though. One thing people need to stop saying is that they dont show up for big games.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Not really. Bridging Marner for 3x8m saves you $3m which could be retained for Marleau and the cost to dump Marleau would have been less than a first. In hindsight, Dubas should have bridged at least one of Marner or Matthews. Not overpaying both would also have helped.

It wouldn't matter if you retain on Marleau, the price is a 1st no matter what. The buy-out deadline is before his bonuses are scheduled to be paid and he's a 35+ contract, even if we retain 99% the team buying him out has to play with 6.25 less in cap space when they buy him out, and that's after they give him millions in cash up front to not play for them and make their team weaker. No matter what financial sorcery you do, someone is paying Marleau 3 million dollars in cash and holding his full 6.25 mil cap hit for the year.

Once Marleau said "San Jose or buyout", the price was going to be high no matter what. That's why you don't sign overpriced 35+ contracts for grinders with full NMCs. Nobody else does that, just Lou.

 

[ToneDog]

It wouldn't matter if you retain on Marleau, the price is a 1st no matter what. The buy-out deadline is before his bonuses are scheduled to be paid and he's a 35+ contract, even if we retain 99% the team buying him out has to play with 6.25 less in cap space when they buy him out. Once Marleau said "San Jose or buyout", the price was going to be high no matter what. That's why you don't sign overpriced 35+ contracts for grinders with full NMCs. Nobody else does that, just Lou.

No question you do not sign an aging forward to that deal although I would not call Marleau a grinder. Very dumb on Lou and most knew it as soon as it was announced. You might be right about the other stuff regarding buy-out and bonus. Not 100% sure something else could not have been done to not have to include our first. I guess only the Canes can answer that.