Mitch Marner Discussion Continued

[Gabriel426]

Lost our best playoff dman (in almost every way) in Muzzin in the second game against the Jackets hurt like hell.

You do have a point in talking about team depth but it gets even more maddening it was the super cheap guys like Goodrow and Coleman that made a real difference in the finals for Tampa and now cashed in. It's not just about spending the money on depth, its getting big moments from them. You can setup the guys for success as much as you want but you still need the end results. It's why Matthews and Marner's 9 points while completely shutting down the Habs top guns looks pretty good when compared with the pitiful production at the bottom of the lineup combined with the Habs depth production doing well against them. If Thornton/Mikheyev/Simmonds 2 points combined in 7 games had been more like Perry/Staal/Armia's 12 points, I think things would look diffferently.

It seems we are moving in a direction towards driving the net hard with guys like Ritchie and Bunting which is probably a smart move seeing how Tampa's depth guys were scoring goals. Losing Hyman hurts but he only had a single point in the 7 games against the Habs. Need some frigging dice rolls in our direction too. The cap situation really was overblown until Covid made it real. Wouldnt it feel nicer with 10 million more to play with right now? Jeez.

The difference between Coleman and other depth guys compare to the Leafs. Those depth guys were not bargain bin pickups like our depth guys. But Spezza, AF and even Gally did got the points as depth players for the Leafs this past playoff. They combined for THREE more points than Perry/Staal/Armia, while Leafs actually scored more goals than the Habs. I guess it was Price who made the difference and yet he let in more goals than Campbell in a 7 games series.
Bad luck and bad bounce must be the reasons, and certainly can't be AM and MM combined for ONE goal in the 7 games series.

 

[Gabriel426]

Do you think the goaltenders save percentage is purely a function of their individual play or is it also dependent on the shooters on the opposite team or the defensive play of the players infront of the goalie etc?

It is no coincidence that the leafs always run into 'hot' goalies in the playoffs, happened too many times. It has to be partly attributed to a lack of killer instinct and generally shitty finishing by the forwards.

To be fair, it is a little bit of both. But I agree with you.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

The difference between Coleman and other depth guys compare to the Leafs. Those depth guys were not bargain bin pickups like our depth guys. But Spezza, AF and even Gally did got the points as depth players for the Leafs this past playoff. They combined for THREE more points than Perry/Staal/Armia, while Leafs actually scored more goals than the Habs. I guess it was Price who made the difference and yet he let in more goals than Campbell in a 7 games series.
Bad luck and bad bounce must be the reasons, and certainly can't be AM and MM combined for ONE goal in the 7 games series.

Agreed, the leafs 2 best players let them down, full stop. Not sure how anything else could be argued...

 

[Ziggdiezan]

To be fair, it is a little bit of both. But I agree with you.

For sure, it is a multitude of factors. Certainly not, 'ours goalies played like shit theirs played like All stars and that is 100% of the reasons we lost every series for the past decade'

Such a huge cop out. People thought it was Andy so Campbell plays the entire series and shits his pants horribly the last like 3 games. Guess it wasn't just Andy? Maybe it has something to do with the players infront of the goalie

 

[Gabriel426]

For sure, it is a multitude of factors. Certainly not, 'ours goalies played like shit theirs played like All stars and that is 100% of the reasons we lost every series for the past decade'

Such a huge cop out. People thought it was Andy so Campbell plays the entire series and shits his pants horribly the last like 3 games. Guess it wasn't just Andy? Maybe it has something to do with the players infront of the goalie

To be fair, Campbell was okay in Game 5 but Sandin made it so much worse. While Campbell was the only player who remembered it is Game 6 from the start, the whole team didn't start playing till they were down by 2 goals.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Do you think the goaltenders save percentage is purely a function of their individual play or is it also dependent on the shooters on the opposite team or the defensive play of the players infront of the goalie etc?

Defensive play and shooting talent can impact save percentage, but we were better at both. Overall, we've put up slightly better defensive results than our opposition in those specific games, and we have been one of the best shooting talent teams in the league over those 4 years.

It is no coincidence that the leafs always run into 'hot' goalies in the playoffs

Except it kind of is coincidence that we ran into hot goalies the past 3 years. Of all opposing goalies who have played more than one series worth of games over the past 3 years, we have played #1, #2, and #3 in playoff save percentage, in our first series of the playoffs. It's not like those goaltending performances immediately stopped once our series were over. We faced two goalies that have Vezinas (who led their team to the Stanley Cup final in the years they faced us), and one goalie that set the playoff save record in the year they faced us, against the eventual Cup Champions.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I didn't say you specifically said he's been playing like garbage (you however actually did make a false claim about what I said), but that has been the general sentiment around here, and you have certainly made some... overly critical statements about Marner throughout this summer, to put it nicely. Including stating that he sucked in the playoffs, multiple times.

Over the past 4 series deciding games, we have had a 51.4% xGF% outside of empty net situations. Which is probably more evenly contested than we would hope for, but we didn't "suck" and we weren't "listless". The main discrepancy between us and the other team in those series-deciding games has undeniably been the play of the respective goaltenders (0.950 vs. 0.879).

I think you know what you said (garbage) but here is is again in case you forgot.

I've simply taken a more honest and detailed look at what's happened and why, rather than just concluding he's been playing like garbage, based on considering nothing but raw points in these samples.

I didn't ask for a bunch of stats, I asked for you opinion based on watching the games. Are you capable of watching and forming an opinion based on what you see or do just believe what the numbers tell you?

 

[Racer88]

Defensive play and shooting talent can impact save percentage, but we were better at both. Overall, we've put up slightly better defensive results than our opposition in those specific games, and we have been one of the best shooting talent teams in the league over those 4 years.

Except it kind of is coincidence that we ran into hot goalies the past 3 years. Of all opposing goalies who have played more than one series worth of games over the past 3 years, we have played #1, #2, and #3 in playoff save percentage, in our first series of the playoffs. It's not like those goaltending performances immediately stopped once our series were over. We faced two goalies that have Vezinas (who led their team to the Stanley Cup final in the years they faced us), and one goalie that set the playoff save record in the year they faced us, against the eventual Cup Champions.

So basically 2 of our 11 million dollar guys aren’t as good as goalie #1, 2 and 3………except for Willy this year………..he beat the spectacular goalie 5 times. Oh and we can’t forget our League minimum guy who also seemed to beat the opposition goalie.

 

[zeke]

The difference between Coleman and other depth guys compare to the Leafs. Those depth guys were not bargain bin pickups like our depth guys. .

Yes those were trade deadline acquisitions that cost them 1st rounders +.

 

[Gabriel426]

Yes those were trade deadline acquisitions that cost them 1st rounders +.

Yep. Thanks for confirming. I dont know why you need to, but thanks.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think you know what you said (garbage).

Yes, I noted that that is the general sentiment around here, not that you specifically said it, but as I reminded you, you've made quite a few overly critical comments about Marner yourself.

I didn't ask for a bunch of stats, I asked for you opinion based on watching the games. Are you capable of watching and forming an opinion based on what you see or do just believe what the numbers tell you?

You asked me to be more specific, so I was more specific, and I also backed up my position with the corresponding statistics, that supported what I saw. Overall, through those 4 deciding games, our skaters played our opposition about even. That's a bit disappointing for me, but it's common for series-deciding games to be more tightly contested, and we have not "sucked" and we have not been "listless". The main reason for our losses in those specific games has been the significant discrepancy in the play of the goaltenders (0.950 vs 0.879).

 

[JT AM da real deal]

SO we're on da topic of junior hockey and you're saying Marner had trouble in playoff hockey? You are da one missing something.

Yes again he never won anything as a youth not so much as 1 single GTHL title .. never won again big elite AAAA springs tournaments (except year he came to play for our spring team) .. and only was successful in 1 year when da playoff teams broke in direction of Knights and even then every big goal was scored by either Tzcchuk or Dvorak .. we were all in same soup bowl as our kids all grew up together playing in same rinks and same tournaments .. if you want to talk individual games or tournaments just ask I was on bench for most of them

 

[Gabriel426]

Yes again he never won anything as a youth not so much as 1 single GTHL title .. never won again big elite AAAA springs tournaments (except year he came to play for our spring team) .. and only was successful in 1 year when da playoff teams broke in direction of Knights and even then every big goal was scored by either Tzcchuk or Dvorak .. we were all in same soup bowl as our kids all grew up together playing in same rinks and same tournaments .. if you want to talk individual games or tournaments just ask I was on bench for most of them

Any hope that Marner can improve the weaknesses you pointed out?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yes, I noted that that is the general sentiment around here, not that you specifically said it, but as I reminded you, you've made quite a few overly critical comments about Marner yourself.

You asked me to be more specific, so I was more specific, and I also backed up my position with the corresponding statistics, that supported what I saw. Overall, through those 4 deciding games, our skaters played our opposition about even. That's a bit disappointing for me, but it's common for series-deciding games to be more tightly contested, and we have not "sucked" and we have not been "listless". The main reason for our losses in those specific games has been the significant discrepancy in the play of the goaltenders (0.950 vs 0.879).

You didn't mention "general sentiment" in your original comment did you? No you didn't so just stop the spin already. And I don't think I've been overly critical of Marner but if you think so, you're entitled to that opinion. And no you didn't "back up your position" with stats, your position was the stats.

Here's the problem with stats in a nutshell - they never tell you the full story. That's the main problem, there are many others for example, all kinds of "expected" stats are subjective and thus are inaccurate by definition. IMHO anyone who saw those games and thinks we didn't suck doesn't understand what they're watching, plain and simple. And if the numbers tell a completely different story from what you're seeing with your own eyes, an thinking person would question the accuracy of the numbers instead of blindly accepting them. That's why I asked you for an opinion, not numbers.

BTW, I assume you've heard of scoring effects - did it ever occur to you that this might have impacted some of these numbers? That's just one potential problem with the numbers, there are many others. That was a rhetorical question BTW, you don't need to answer. I was only interested in your opinion but since you don't seem to have one (other than the stats, the stats, look at the stats), there's just no point.

 

[FreeBird]

Any hope that Marner can improve the weaknesses you pointed out?

Its too bad he is limited to binging Matthews caddy instead of showcasing all his talents

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Any hope that Marner can improve the weaknesses you pointed out?

Since COVID I have been pretty much out of da loop as most are isolating and I have not been going to da rinks so it is only what I hear from my kids and quite frankly they are still immature goofing off playing video games incl Mitch all night still .. da days of playing then going for a pop of two after are long gone .. if he changes his long time skating coach and moves to Barb then he will be far better off even though he thinks that is what got him to show .. anyone can improve but you can't keep doing da same old stuff over and over again (even if harder) and expect improvement .. but he has his $$$ now so that changes everything .. he is a good kid with a kind heart .. but I had been telling Paul this for a few years until he vaporized after Mitch got his contract

 

[Gary Nylund]

Since COVID I have been pretty much out of da loop as most are isolating and I have not been going to da rinks so it is only what I hear from my kids and quite frankly they are still immature goofing off playing video games incl Mitch all night still .. da days of playing then going for a pop of two after are long gone .. if he changes his long time skating coach and moves to Barb then he will be far better off even though he thinks that is what got him to show .. anyone can improve but you can't keep doing da same old stuff over and over again (even if harder) and expect improvement .. but he has his $$$ now so that changes everything .. he is a good kid with a kind heart .. but I had been telling Paul this for a few years until he vaporized after Mitch got his contract

Unless Barb can help him with his shot, I don't see how this is going to help. Say what you want about Money, he's an excellent skater.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Unless Barb can help him with his shot, I don't see how this is going to help. Say what you want about Money, he's an excellent skater.

He is one of best of the best lateral skaters on his edges I have even seen maybe even better than McJesus .. but he wont even have a chance to makes his moves down low if he can't get there fast enough .. Mitch problem has been same since he was 6 he does not have a full length stride so even kids like my kid who is much taller can hunt him down blue line to blue line .. in a race from one end of ice to other goal line to goal line he is way way back .. you have to be able to skate da ice .. same issue with JT except he does not have da edges to move like Mitch

 

[Gary Nylund]

He is one of best of the best lateral skaters on his edges I have even seen maybe even better than McJesus .. but he wont even have a chance to makes his moves down low if he can't get there fast enough .. Mitch problem has been same since he was 6 he does not have a full length stride so even kids like my kid who is much taller can hunt him down blue line to blue line .. in a race from one end of ice to other goal line to goal line he is way way back .. you have to be able to skate da ice .. same issue with JT except he does not have da edges to move like Mitch

Skating hasn't prevented JT from being an elite player so that obviously isn't what's holding Mitch back. It seems obvious that the reason Mitch can only dream about scoring like JT does, is that muffin of a shot.

 

[IPS]

He is one of best of the best lateral skaters on his edges I have even seen maybe even better than McJesus .. but he wont even have a chance to makes his moves down low if he can't get there fast enough .. Mitch problem has been same since he was 6 he does not have a full length stride so even kids like my kid who is much taller can hunt him down blue line to blue line .. in a race from one end of ice to other goal line to goal line he is way way back .. you have to be able to skate da ice .. same issue with JT except he does not have da edges to move like Mitch

And you gotta wonder if it can even change at this point. The kid is 24 now and his short stride might be so ingrained in his muscle memory that he might be stuck with it.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

To be fair, Campbell was okay in Game 5 but Sandin made it so much worse. While Campbell was the only player who remembered it is Game 6 from the start, the whole team didn't start playing till they were down by 2 goals.

The whole team was definitely shit for the last few games but that is my point. The leafs didn't lose purely due to goalkeeping. It was a group effort to choke that bad

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Skating hasn't prevented JT from being an elite player so that obviously isn't what's holding Mitch back. It seems obvious that the reason Mitch can only dream about scoring like JT does, is that muffin of a shot.

Agreed every player has different skill sets .. if da focus is on goals then you want innately stronger guys with great grip strength like JT .. Mitch was not blessed with it .. you gotta work with what you got .. i don't think Mitch will ever score a ton of goals as he never has his whole life .. my point was I hope he can lengthen his stride over time to help him out in playoff hockey so he can improve his speed A to B in a race

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Defensive play and shooting talent can impact save percentage, but we were better at both. Overall, we've put up slightly better defensive results than our opposition in those specific games, and we have been one of the best shooting talent teams in the league over those 4 years.

Except it kind of is coincidence that we ran into hot goalies the past 3 years. Of all opposing goalies who have played more than one series worth of games over the past 3 years, we have played #1, #2, and #3 in playoff save percentage, in our first series of the playoffs. It's not like those goaltending performances immediately stopped once our series were over. We faced two goalies that have Vezinas (who led their team to the Stanley Cup final in the years they faced us), and one goalie that set the playoff save record in the year they faced us, against the eventual Cup Champions.

The issues with your first point is that the leafs may have had the advantage in corsi, scoring chances etc. But that doesn't take into account if you are whiffing your shots or putting it right into the goalies chest. A snipe top corner from the same position as a floater into the chest is rated the exact same. How were the leafs shooting percetages in playoffs when it matters vs regular season? It is a bit of a rhetorical question

Correlation != causation. One of the reason those goalies may have had such good save percentages is due to the leaf shooters choking like I saw many times. Every team the leafs have faced the last couple years have been far more clinical when presented with scoring opportunities. I believe the best series save percentages wise for those goalies were all against the leafs from what I recall when this was discussed last year. That is awful coincidental

 

[JT AM da real deal]

And you gotta wonder if it can even change at this point. The kid is 24 now and his short stride might be so ingrained in his muscle memory that he might be stuck with it.

People don't understand this but reason Mitch and JT played so well together was they move at about same pace straight line so they were a good fit for each other aside from matching a shooter with a passer and then add in Zach to forecheck and it was deadly .. Matty and Mitch skate at different speeds around ice so their timing likely wont ever be as good

 

[Gary Nylund]

Agreed every player has different skill sets .. if da focus is on goals then you want innately stronger guys with great grip strength like JT .. Mitch was not blessed with it .. you gotta work with what you got .. i don't think Mitch will ever score a ton of goals as he never has his whole life .. my point was I hope he can lengthen his stride over time to help him out in playoff hockey so he can improve his speed A to B in a race

Sure, I get it. I think that maybe he can improve a little bit there but where he can improve a TON, is his shot. And for that reason, time spent on that would be time better spent.

Disclaimre - I'm not expert so take that FWIW.