Value of: Mitch Marner Contract Mega-Thread Pt. 2

[Skinnyjimmy08]

108 million over the next 9 years isn't exactly a terrible outcome for Marner.

But signing a 1 year deal and risk getting hurt and never getting that massive contract is a bad idea. He can already come close to a McDavid deal as it is already

 

[Niten Ichi Ryu]

Dubas has cracked before, and he'll crack again. Marner 8 years @ 11M confirmed

 

[Xanner]

I think they bite the bullet and give Marner 8 years at 10.5 and then trade Zaitsev and let Gardiner walk.

Gardiners walking, that decision was made the moment they acquired Muzzin, If they can get Marner at 10.5 for a full 8 years well that would be nice but i don't think they will be able to, i really hope they can move Zaitsev.

 

[Tripod]

108 million over the next 9 years isn't exactly a terrible outcome for Marner.

again...he and his agent won't risk a career ending injury. He will get his big contract this summer and rightfully so. Top 10 in scoring at age 21.

 

[Sundinisagod]

But signing a 1 year deal and risk getting hurt and never getting that massive contract is a bad idea. He can already come close to a McDavid deal as it is already

What are the chances he gets hurt doesn't end up getting that massive contract? I mean specifically for Marner, who has shown to have incredible on ice awareness. Matthews has had his share of injury we all know and it didn't affect his contract in the slightest. I could be wrong but I thought Dubas made some comments or hints about Marner not deserving the same salary as Matthews due to being a winger?

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Because with the RFA contracts, it's not only about what you have done, it's about what the team projects you to do and what you hope to become. Matthews is the perfect example, right?

You honestly think they are going by Pts/GP "only"? Of course not. Real points matter too. As does expected upside. etc...

What I meant by the interesting part....is how other GM's try and combat Dubas setting the market for all RFA's going forward.

You are kind of missing the point. How did Dubas set the market? If Draisaitl was worth 11.3% of the cap with one good season where he hit 0.94 Pts/GP as a winger, what are people with substantially better resumes that play centre worth? If you look at contracts, centres tend to make about 12% more than wingers. If I am outproducing you in my ELC year by 66% in goals and close to 30% in points and I play a position that awards me 12% simply on position and the cap has increased 10.6%, how is Dubas setting the market? Do the math. It's directly in line with what the market already dictates. The only argument to be made is # of years.

 

[Tripod]

It doesn't appear to be there for the taking.

Says who? Marner absolutely is getting paid.

His AVV( the number that counts) is 6.69 yes except for this year because of the signing bonus. Yes I only want to point out the 6.96 that is the important number.

And that's fair. But I was pointing out that you just can't ignore he is getting paid 10+ million this year, too.

The Leafs will trade Nylander at some point after that bonus is paid with his real money being so low.

 

[Sundinisagod]

again...he and his agent won't risk a career ending injury. He will get his big contract this summer and rightfully so. Top 10 in scoring at age 21.

I don't disagree that he deserves it, I think he should be paid the same as Matthews, I just don't know that the Leafs will give it to him now.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Says who? Marner absolutely is getting paid.

And that's fair. But I was pointing out that you just can't ignore he is getting paid 10+ million this year, too.

The Leafs will trade Nylander at some point after that bonus is paid with his real money being so low.

I am not ignoring it. Yes his AVV is 10+ this year.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

What are the chances he gets hurt doesn't end up getting that massive contract? I mean specifically for Marner, who has shown to have incredible on ice awareness. Matthews has had his share of injury we all know and it didn't affect his contract in the slightest. I could be wrong but I thought Dubas made some comments or hints about Marner not deserving the same salary as Matthews due to being a winger?

All it takes is Marner messing up his knee or shoulder or something and plays in 40 games and only puts up 40 ish points or so and just like that Leafs have ammo to lowball him and make things tough.

He isnt signing a 1 year deal. His ability to hit a homerun on a massive deal is sky high right now and he will cash in guarenteed

 

[Tripod]

You are kind of missing the point. How did Dubas set the market? If Draisaitl was worth 11.3% of the cap with one good season where he hit 0.94 Pts/GP as a winger, what are people with substantially better resumes that play centre worth? If you look at contracts, centres tend to make about 12% more than wingers. If I am outproducing you in my ELC year by 66% in goals and close to 30% in points and I play a position that awards me 12% simply on position and the cap has increased 10.6%, how is Dubas setting the market? Do the math. It's directly in line with what the market already dictates. The only argument to be made is # of years.

Again, because the market is not just set by pts/GP in your contract year like you are indicating.

Dubas set the market FOR LEAF PLAYERS. And other GM's will be fighting their own RFA to push for their OWN team as comparables, not Leaf players. That's the point I am making.

Now will it work? who knows. But if Point signs for 8.5-9. Then Rant for 9ish...while Marner gets 11, then it will look like the Leafs overpaid compared to other teams.

In the end, we won't know until all the RFA's sign. But for Marner and his agent, he has a UFA and a RFA on his own team that he is out producing and they both make 11 million or more. So of course his agent will push for that too.

 

[Tripod]

I don't disagree that he deserves it, I think he should be paid the same as Matthews, I just don't know that the Leafs will give it to him now.

He will hold out like Nylander did. Or maybe another team DOES offersheet him. He knows he has options.

And fwiw, teams RARELY have issues paying their top players, top money. So paying Marner 11 million is not the issue. The issue is you can't spend 4.5 million on guys like Zaitsev. You have to avoid those overpayment to the lower tier guys.

 

[glucker]

Season Pts/GP at 21 years old

Marner 1.23
Kane 1.07
Rantanen 1.04
Draisaitl 0.94
Gaudreau 0.8
Kucherov 0.79

While Marner absolutely is an elite player, it's hard to compare these numbers, because of the inflated scoring in the NHL this year. I'm sure someone has season adjusted numbers somewhere, and I imagine he'd probably be on par with Kane and Rantanen.

 

[ole ole]

Yes, great still Nylander is not at 7.5. Nylander is not overpaid, Matthews isn't overpaid. I would like to see the players that the Leafs have overpaid for.

ZAITSEV

 

[Leaf Fans]

ZAITSEV

Yes, Lou overpaid on Zaitsev.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Well i do watch them a ton and he usually always is.

No need to try talk his play down... He is getting paid huge

And as per majority of Leaf GDT's, almost all Leafs fans would agree with me it appears. But ya thanks for that great reply

If you agreed with everything in Leafs GDTs, you'd believe Leafs are a bottom 5 team so.

I'm not downplaying him, he's my favourite player in the league; and he'll get paid - just not the 11+ mil people are expecting. The fact is the last 4-6 weeks he hasn't been his dominating self except the last week or so. Before that he was our best player for a lot of the games, and the last week or so he's again been one of the best.

 

[Sundinisagod]

He will hold out like Nylander did. Or maybe another team DOES offersheet him. He knows he has options.

And fwiw, teams RARELY have issues paying their top players, top money. So paying Marner 11 million is not the issue. The issue is you can't spend 4.5 million on guys like Zaitsev. You have to avoid those overpayment to the lower tier guys.

I could see it coming to a hold out as well. We all know Marner will play hard ball. I'm under the impression that Dubas will as well. If it were up to me I'd unload some others and sign Marner to 8 year deal. I just don't think Dubas is willing to unload a guy like Nylander or Kapanen for futures to make it happen. I think the compromise will be a short deal with a high price tag plus a promise to make him the highest paid Leaf, if not player, the moment he's allowed to...when is that again, Jan 1?? If so, that is only a few months. Then again, maybe if we could move Zaitsev we can give Marner the deal he deserves. That's a good point you made there. Too much focus on the Marner contract and not on the excess fat elsewhere. I guess I've come around to your point of view.

 

[Notsince67]

People still don't know Nylander's AVV. 7.5??? It is 6.96. Plaese give me an an example where Dubas over paid.

It is 6.96MM over 93.3% of 6 years. Players who don't hold out would play the addition 6.7% of the 6 years and would expect to get paid for it.
A full 6 year body of work works out to 7.5MM

 

[Menzinger]

It is 6.96MM over 93.3% of 6 years. Players who don't hold out would play the addition 6.7% of the 6 years and would expect to get paid for it.
A full 6 year body of work works out to 7.5MM

Except it’s fairly clear as day that the only reason the contract is structured as is is due to the missed time and wouldn’t have been offered if it was for the full 6 years.

Neither total money nor aav are 7.5. It’s just tiresome at this point that some folks can’t grasp this

 

[Notsince67]

Except it’s fairly clear as day that the only reason the contract is structured as is is due to the missed time and wouldn’t have been offered if it was for the full 6 years.

Neither total money nor aav are 7.5. It’s just tiresome at this point that some folks can’t grasp this

I can grasp it. I start a job at the beginning of the month and get paid 4000 for the month. Buddy starts the job 2 weeks after I do and gets paid 4000 for the month. Are the 2 salaries comparable? Neither the math not the concept is difficult

 

[Menzinger]

I can grasp it. I start a job at the beginning of the month and get paid 4000 for the month. Buddy starts the job 2 weeks after I do and gets paid 4000 for the month. Are the 2 salaries comparable? Neither the math not the concept is difficult

All the Leafs have to reply is that if another player wants a similar deal they are free to sit out until December 1st.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Production differences by year:

88% G/GP 42% Pts/GP
38% G/GP 28% Pts/GP
4% G/GP -9% Pts/GP

Quite obviously, one has the much better resume. Point has evened out this year. Most common linemate? Kucherov.

What does this have to do with Point in his contract year having 80 pts and 36 goals in 64 games? This is not a D+1, D+2 development debate. It's a Marner contract discussion.

 

[Leaf Fans]

It is 6.96MM over 93.3% of 6 years. Players who don't hold out would play the addition 6.7% of the 6 years and would expect to get paid for it.
A full 6 year body of work works out to 7.5MM

But not for Nylander. Other players sure.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Marchand is a beaut.

He sure is. Suprised he would come out and say that Boston will try to offer-sheet Marner at 12

 

[Notsince67]

All the Leafs have to reply is that if another player wants a similar deal they are free to sit out until December 1st.

I can assure you there will be more interest from other teams to acquire Marner in comparison to Nylander. Any situation that arises will resolve itself well before it came to training camp and not in the leafs favor.