Value of: Mitch Marner Contract Mega-Thread Pt. 2

[The Winter Soldier]

Just think, Dubas just signed Tavares to the largest UFA contract ever, then signs Matthews to the 2nd largest RFA contract ever. And Marner has more points than both, and better PPG than both.

And with Point and Rantanen with almost identical stats to Marner, it should be interesting to see what all these kids get.

Good post Tripod. With Dubas' precedent setting contracts. There is no telling what Marner will be signed to, especially with an offer sheet possibility as part of the equation.

I don't think it matters what Point or Rantanen get. It has more to do with how Tavares, Matthews are paid. And if we look at these 2 contracts, plus Nylander's. Marner is going to get his share of $.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Good post Tripod. With Dubas' precedent setting contracts. There is no telling what Marner will be signed to, especially with an offer sheet possibility as part of the equation.

I don't think it matters what Point or Rantanen get. It has more to do with how Tavares, Matthews are paid. And if we look at these 2 contracts, plus Nylander's. Marner is going to get his share of $.

They will negotiate a deal that both sides are happy with-same as any other GM in the league.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

They will negotiate a deal that both sides are happy with-same as any other GM in the league.

Marner will be happy with 10.1 to 11.6 is my guess. I am not sure Dubas will be happy. But that's the range he has painted himself into if the reports were correct that Marner could have been signed for 9M per before the season.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Marner will be happy with 10.1 to 11.6 is my guess. I am not sure Dubas will be happy. But that's the range he has painted himself into if the reports were correct that Marner could have been signed for 9M per before the season.

Sure, but in order reach a deal both sides have to agree.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

he's their best player pretty much every single game

Not true at all.

 

[madmike77]

The Leafs can 100% afford Marner at 12 million....It would just mean we can't afford Nylander at 7. There isn't a scenario where we don't sign Marner even if he is over paid. Other players will move before we trade Marner.

Totally agree with this. Marner isn’t going anywhere. It is going to hurt the depth though.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

This 11M stuff is pretty hilarious.

We heard this same type of condescending crap with Matthews.

 

[ZDH]

I hope he demands and gets a higher AAV than Matthew's. I don't think he will though because he doesn't seem like the type.

If he demands it and doesn't budge an inch Toronto will cave. They have no other good option...

 

[Coach]

The Leafs can 100% afford Marner at 12 million....It would just mean we can't afford Nylander at 7. There isn't a scenario where we don't sign Marner even if he is over paid. Other players will move before we trade Marner.

Yes why I expect why the leafs sign him to a shorter contract to bring the yearly salary down. Leafs could also trade Nylander although I'm not sure he has done much to prove he is worth the new contract he signed so not sure how many teams would want his contract never mind be willing to offer a lot in return.

 

[Tripod]

Good post Tripod. With Dubas' precedent setting contracts. There is no telling what Marner will be signed to, especially with an offer sheet possibility as part of the equation.

I don't think it matters what Point or Rantanen get. It has more to do with how Tavares, Matthews are paid. And if we look at these 2 contracts, plus Nylander's. Marner is going to get his share of $.

What will be interesting to see, is how much the other FA get because you can bet other GM's will be pushing to say the Leafs are not the norm/comparables. They will be pushing for their own teams players as comparables.

Even Draisaitl...GM's will be saying he is 5th in scoring, and under a 83 million cap, his % would now be 9.4 million. So other GM's could be pointing to the Leafs as outliers and say "just because they overpaid does not mean we will. We will pay what is fair"

Should be interesting....

 

[AvsCOL]

$10m+ would be an overpayment seeing as Mark Stone and Nikita Kucherov should be the standard for elite wingers.

I could see the market being set for young RFAs around $9m for 6 years.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Yes why I expect why the leafs sign him to a shorter contract to bring the yearly salary down. Leafs could also trade Nylander although I'm not sure he has done much to prove he is worth the new contract he signed so not sure how many teams would want his contract never mind be willing to offer a lot in return.

Nylander has been good and teams would 100% be interested in a young player with that much talent....lets not get silly here now.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

What will be interesting to see, is how much the other FA get because you can bet other GM's will be pushing to say the Leafs are not the norm/comparables. They will be pushing for their own teams players as comparables.

Even Draisaitl...GM's will be saying he is 5th in scoring, and under a 83 million cap, his % would now be 9.4 million. So other GM's could be pointing to the Leafs as outliers and say "just because they overpaid does not mean we will. We will pay what is fair"

Should be interesting....

It kind of is all dependent player to player really. Some players just want to get the contracts signed and move on and don't have any interest in really digging in and fighting over a million either side. If someone like Tkatchuk is offered 7.5 is he going to just take it and say yes or is he going to look at Nylander making 7 say not a chance and dig in? Nobody really knows for sure but to think the Leafs contracts won't be used as comparables by the players around the league is really naive.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

What will be interesting to see, is how much the other FA get because you can bet other GM's will be pushing to say the Leafs are not the norm/comparables. They will be pushing for their own teams players as comparables.

Even Draisaitl...GM's will be saying he is 5th in scoring, and under a 83 million cap, his % would now be 9.4 million. So other GM's could be pointing to the Leafs as outliers and say "just because they overpaid does not mean we will. We will pay what is fair"

Should be interesting....

Other GM's around the NHL may treat Leafs contracts as outliers. For instance for Brayden Point. There is no way he is getting what Matthews or Marner are going to get with what Kucherov is being paid. It's going to be weighted in proportion to what each team is paying their players. Which IMO is the correct way to negotiate. Just because 1 GM in this case of Dubas is overpaying, does not mean more responsible GM's as in TB should be penalized.

 

[LeafGrief]

I hope he demands and gets a higher AAV than Matthew's. I don't think he will though because he doesn't seem like the type.

If he demands it and doesn't budge an inch Toronto will cave. They have no other good option...

They'll let him sign the offersheet and then sign Panarin with the money instead, content to take four first round picks from a team who is now paying a winger $12m.

 

[HOPE]

Totally agree with this. Marner isn’t going anywhere. It is going to hurt the depth though.

exacly, but depth wins stanley cups!

Toronto will need to keep drafting well and have ELC players playing top notch hockey! it's realy not impossible but winning a stanley cup will be harder than people think!

 

[hockeyguy1967]

If Dubas was a good GM he would get him for about 8M. But he has overpaid all three off his signings so far, so I am sure Marner will get something redic like 10x5

 

[hockeyguy1967]

They'll let him sign the offersheet and then sign Panarin with the money instead, content to take four first round picks from a team who is now paying a winger $12m.

How much would they be paying Panarin this other winger?

 

[hockeyguy1967]

The biggest problem that Dubas did by giving Nylander 7.5M per (Lets me honest, it was 7.5x8) is he overpaid and set a standard for his other two much better players coming off of a ELC. So now he had to overpay Matthews and for only 5 years and will overpay Marner and most likely get a reduced term.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

The biggest problem that Dubas did by giving Nylander 7.5M per (Lets me honest, it was 7.5x8) is he overpaid and set a standard for his other two much better players coming off of a ELC. So now he had to overpay Matthews and for only 5 years and will overpay Marner and most likely get a reduced term.

This is why I wonder, will other GM's around the league just cite Toronto as an outlier in negotiations. And just point to other examples as more realistic salaries. Interesting question.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Not true at all, but thanks for pretending you actually watch Leafs games.

Well i do watch them a ton and he usually always is.

No need to try talk his play down... He is getting paid huge

And as per majority of Leaf GDT's, almost all Leafs fans would agree with me it appears. But ya thanks for that great reply

 

[crowi]

Marner is a TO boy from the beginning, he is the only one I could see taking less than he is worth (no one else did). The way he is playing though, even $9M would be a hefty pay cut for him. Then again, I could absolutely see him take $8M/8 years as his character just is different than other young players there.

 

[Canadian Jesus]

Marner will either be traded or get paid more than Matthews. Can't have your cake and eat it too

 

[Leaf Fans]

People still don't know Nylander's AVV. 7.5??? It is 6.96. Plaese give me an an example where Dubas over paid.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

What will be interesting to see, is how much the other FA get because you can bet other GM's will be pushing to say the Leafs are not the norm/comparables. They will be pushing for their own teams players as comparables.

Even Draisaitl...GM's will be saying he is 5th in scoring, and under a 83 million cap, his % would now be 9.4 million. So other GM's could be pointing to the Leafs as outliers and say "just because they overpaid does not mean we will. We will pay what is fair"

Should be interesting....

Why is that interesting? His production today has nothing to do with his contract. He signed for 11.3% of the cap on a
0.94 Pts/GP production. Marner's ELC production is 31% higher than Draisaitl's and the cap is inflated 10.7%. Theoretically Marner could argue he is worth $12.3M using Draisaitl as the example.