Value of: Mitch Marner Contract Mega-Thread Pt. 2

[Notsince67]

But not for Nylander. Other players sure.

Exactly

 

[Menzinger]

I can assure you there will be more interest from other teams to acquire Marner in comparison to Nylander. Any situation that arises will resolve itself well before it came to training camp and not in the leafs favor.

We can agree here; if Marner wants to sit out until December he’ll -absolutely be playing on a different team. Will be up to him if he wants to sort out his contract before then.

 

[Coach]

Nylander has been good and teams would 100% be interested in a young player with that much talent....lets not get silly here now.

I think you proving my argument Nylander has 5 goals and 16 points and is getting paid around 10 million this season. Most teams pay less for that kind of production but on the Leafs it is consider good value. I'm not sure outside of Toronto if many GM's would consider him worth his contract. Great player but hardly a value play.

 

[NoName]

I think a few posters here and (and Brad Marchand) need to visit...

The Marner Jar – All Deposits Sent To SickKids Foundation

 

[Coach]

they're already a top 5 team, if they maintain that for awhile that's a lot of chances at a Cup

They are 3rd in a division where only 3 teams are likely to make the playoffs this year. Their division has lost in the conference finals for most of the last decade. The leafs haven't got out of the first round in the last decade by what metrics are they a top 5 team. Just curious.

 

[Menzinger]

They are 3rd in a division where only 3 teams are likely to make the playoffs this year. Their division has lost in the conference finals for most of the last decade. The leafs haven't got out of the first round in the last decade by what metrics are they a top 5 team. Just curious.

Their division has three of the better teams in the east.

And let’s face it, the West doesn’t exactly look too hot this year

 

[Coach]

Their division has three of the better teams in the east.

And let’s face it, the West doesn’t exactly look too hot this year

Neither did Washington last year in the regular season. I think a team should win at least a playoff series before I would consider them in the league top 5. That doesn't mean Toronto can't do it just they haven't done it yet in my view.

 

[TheDoldrums]

The leafs haven't got out of the first round in the last decade by what metrics are they a top 5 team. Just curious.

the standings? lol

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I think you proving my argument Nylander has 5 goals and 16 points and is getting paid around 10 million this season. Most teams pay less for that kind of production but on the Leafs it is consider good value. I'm not sure outside of Toronto if many GM's would consider him worth his contract. Great player but hardly a value play.

No you are missing my point lol. If Nylander became available there would absolutely be a market for him and it is absolutely ridiculous to suggest otherwise. If you choose to take this season as his true ability and not the 2 previous that is on you but don't think GM's around the league are going to think like that too.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Just give him his 5 year 10.5AAV and be done with it.

 

[kmo429]

There's no precedent giving scoring wingers that kind of money coming off their ELC. Even if we take the ole' percentage of the cap comparison, Patty Kane got 11% after scoring 88 points. Today's comparable deal would be 9 million for 5 years. That is, if we think he's as good as Kane is.

Fair enough. Only way Marner takes 9 or less though is if no one is willing to offer sheet him or if he’s not will to sit out at all next season. Once again, unless he really wants to stay in Toronto which is definitely possible

 

[hockeyguy1967]

People still don't know Nylander's AVV. 7.5??? It is 6.96. Plaese give me an an example where Dubas over paid.

It is 7.5 but because of the missed season it is just under 7
7M for a selfish, soft, terrible playoff player is a bad contract as you can see this year.
He barely got 60 points being carried by Matthews, this year as you can see he is on pace for what 30 points alone.

 

[hockeyguy1967]

Why is that interesting? His production today has nothing to do with his contract. He signed for 11.3% of the cap on a
0.94 Pts/GP production. Marner's ELC production is 31% higher than Draisaitl's and the cap is inflated 10.7%. Theoretically Marner could argue he is worth $12.3M using Draisaitl as the example.

Well, Season does not end today. Plus Size, Defensive play, PK play, Center all factor in, not to mention he just came off of a stellar playoffs.

Marners contract if signed in the off season will have to take all of this into account. Thing is, he has Matthews and Nylander's bad contracts to use as leverage.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Leafs responded to Marchand's tweet. Marchand is a riot that he actually has the Leafs talking about this. Marchand already in playoff agitating mode. lol.

 

[KevinRedkey]

He got 45 million over 6 seasons. That's 7.500

The Cap hit breakdown is 10.278 this season, and 6.962 moving forward because he sat out a % of this season. Oddly enough that adds up to $89,608 too much in terms of cap hit somehow.

I'm not sure why CapFriendly lists his contract as $45,000,000 but then shows $45,089,608 as his cap hit and AVV. Something is a little off an I'm sure it comes down to something like games played vs days active or something, but IDK for sure.
William Nylander - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Either way, Nylander got paid 7.500 per season, but his cap hit is a little wonky so it makes it seem like a shade under 7.000

 

[Bigmarycombo]

We can agree here; if Marner wants to sit out until December he’ll -absolutely be playing on a different team. Will be up to him if he wants to sort out his contract before then.

Why would he be playing on a different team. He can hold out until December and have dubas fold like he did with nylander. Neither Matthews or nylander have proven they deserve their contracts both are getting paid for their future and we better hope they fulfill their potential.

Is Willy better than a 20 goal 60 point player because that’s what he has shown so far. He’s being paid like a 80 point player. He certainly has all the skill to be a very good player but he’s not there yet. We are paying him for what he may be in 2 or three years.

Matthews hasn’t had a season where he isn’t injured so I give him a sort of pass. He has the skill to be elite but there seems to be something missing. If you look at his contract if you look at what he received for five years and if that contract was 8 years he would get 14 million a year. What has Matthews done to deserve either contract. Right now he certainly isn’t an 11 million dollar player
Like a mcdavid.

Marner will not accept anything less than 11 million and compared to the other two he deserves it. Everyone says it’s because he’s playing with Tavares but it’s no coincidence that Tavares will score more goals this year than ever in his career. Marner was our best player from December of last year and he tried to carry the team on his back in the playoffs when nylander and Matthews disappeared.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I don't disagree that he deserves it, I think he should be paid the same as Matthews, I just don't know that the Leafs will give it to him now.

Then he doesn't sign with them and sits out/asks for trade/takes offer sheet...

 

[DKH]

He sure is. Suprised he would come out and say that Boston will try to offer-sheet Marner at 12

They can’t - they have to pony up for Carlo McAvoy Heinen DeBrusk Grzelcyk Chara etc over next 2 years

 

[SotasicA]

All the Leafs have to reply is that if another player wants a similar deal they are free to sit out until December 1st.

Nylander waited, and then got what he wanted. He even got compensated for the time he missed sitting out.

So, free vacation, yay!

 

[TheDoldrums]

Nylander waited, and then got what he wanted. He even got compensated for the time he missed sitting out.

So, free vacation, yay!

I would imagine most players don't want that vacation. Pretty lonely couple of months and makes it very difficult to have a good season.

 

[JetsHomer]

We can agree here; if Marner wants to sit out until December he’ll -absolutely be playing on a different team. Will be up to him if he wants to sort out his contract before then.

Marner will sort out his contract long before then, he'll just do it from another team as is his right as an RFA.

Marner is going to receive a 10.1m offersheet over 5 years minimum, no doubt about it

 

[koyvoo]

It’s easily been over 100 games now that he’s been the best, most influential and most dependable leaf forward. Why wouldn’t he or his camp present himself as such in negotiations?

 

[KevinRedkey]

The Stone/Kucherov contracts set the bar.

Even if he sets the house on fire down the stretch and playoff time, he isn't worth more than 9.5

Nevada and Florida don't have State income taxes. I said that before Matthews signed, and Leafs fans claimed Toronto had "sponsorship deals galore" that would offset that. That proved to be BS as Matthews did not take a discount (unlike Kucherov).

An 8yr contract @9.500 in Tampa is ~44.700 take home. To equal that in Toronto, it would have to be ~11.000 x 8yrs.

9.500 in Toronto is pretty much the same as what Ryan Johansen signed for in Nashville (8x8)

If Kucherov set the bar, then why did Matthews get more?
Turns out they actually got about the same, but their cap hits are different.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

He sure is. Suprised he would come out and say that Boston will try to offer-sheet Marner at 12

I didn't see mention of the offer sheet.

Marchand's tweet was: I cant wait to see this kids new deal... 12m AAV?? It better be‪#Marnerwatch

https://www.tsn.ca/marchand-can-t-wait-to-see-marner-s-next-contract-1.1268150

Maybe there's something else out there?

 

[DanM]

Nevada and Florida don't have State income taxes. I said that before Matthews signed, and Leafs fans claimed Toronto had "sponsorship deals galore" that would offset that. That proved to be BS as Matthews did not take a discount (unlike Kucherov).

An 8yr contract @9.500 in Tampa is ~44.700 take home. To equal that in Toronto, it would have to be ~11.000 x 8yrs.

9.500 in Toronto is pretty much the same as what Ryan Johansen signed for in Nashville (8x8)

If Kucherov set the bar, then why did Matthews get more?
Turns out they actually got about the same, but their cap hits are different.

If taxes are not part of the hard cap, they should not be used in negotiations. It really pisses me off.

Every other contract in the league should not be negotiated on with the intent on the player having to earn the same take home as a less taxed state.

You play where you play, deal with it, or go play in Florida, but f*** off on with this "well Kucherov takes home this money after taxes, so you need to pay me more to match that"

It's actual BS