Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part X | Will Mitch get an OS?

[4thline]

What does a Maple Leafs team with Marner on a 10.5m/y deal actually look like at this point?
.

Minimal assumptions - Brown gone for a pick, Ritchie for a million, Horton to LTIR, Kap and AJ at 3.2 and 3.4 as reported.

Healthy

Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Moore-Kadri-Kap
Mikheyev-Gauthier-Ritchie
Petan

Rielly-Dermott
Muzzin-Zaitsev
Rosen-Liljegren
Holl

Andersen
Sparks

300k left to play.

Too much gambling in that defense. Need to at least free up a couple million for a Hainsey type stop gap.
Comes down to Kadri/Zaits imo.

 

[al secord]

You should do some investigation on how oddsmakers set odds. Remember, there's a sucker born every minute. The larger the fanbase, the more suckers.

You're a caricature of a caricature at this point.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

Not a chance that we get into the postseason. Andersen will need to be pulled due to shell shock after 25 mins. Our D is by far the cause for concern.

We still have a top 2 offence in the NHL and one of Muzzin/Reilly/Dermott on each pairing.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Except I'm not. You think odds are set based on who is projected to win, when really it's just based on where the action is at a given point in time.

Don't get upset because you didn't know. Think of interactions with me as an opportunity to educate yourself.

You are, the odds are set factoring in probabilties of outcomes, they move based on the betting action on either side while still accounting for probabilities of outcomes. Betting money also follows probability of outcomes, otherwise there is massive inefficiencies to exploit.

I do think of interactions with you as opportunities for education, like reading in The Onion

 

[Schooner]

That exact thing was discussed on TSN this morning with Dregs.

**Paul

 

[The CyNick]

You are, the odds are set factoring in probabilties of outcomes, they move based on the betting action on either side while still accounting for probabilities of outcomes. Betting money also follows probability of outcomes, otherwise there is massive inefficiencies to exploit.

I do think of interactions with you as opportunities for education, like reading in The Onion

Do you think leafs fans are more likely to bet on the leafs or another team?

 

[Trapper]

Nylander is on a 6 year contract

True but since last year is done, Matthews/Nylander have 5 years left.
Why would Marner want 8 if everyone is done at 26?

 

[Martin Skoula]

True but since last year is done, Matthews/Nylander have 5 years left.
Why would Marner want 8 if everyone is done at 26?

Because his other options are:

1) pray for an offer sheet
2) take less money
3) sit out/play in Europe

If he wants to sign until 26, he's not breaking 7 figures.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Do you think leafs fans are more likely to bet on the leafs or another team?

Do you think that there's no smart money out that looks for lines to get out of hand to bet against them?

 

[CDN24]

If Marner is meeting with other teams, why don't we meet with other RFA's or UFA's? I have yet to hear anything regarding the leafs being involved in talks with other unsigned players. If he wants to use other teams as leverage, than we can and should do the same right back by approaching big ticket RFA's and UFA's.

You will need your own 2020 1st rd pick for most RFA offer sheets - its in carolina.
UFA they may be talking to some mid level guys- Big names(panarin/MD/Pavalski ) won't bother as leafs do not have the cap space to get them.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Because his other options are:

1) pray for an offer sheet
2) take less money
3) sit out/play in Europe

If he wants to sign until 26, he's not breaking 7 figures.

If he wants to be be done at 26 he'll need to come way down on what to expect. 9.5 at 5 years is ridiculous.

 

[HappyJoy]

True but since last year is done, Matthews/Nylander have 5 years left.
Why would Marner want 8 if everyone is done at 26?

I very much doubt the leafs will sign MM to a 5 year deal atleast. Then they would have AM, WN and MM being UFA at the same time. I guess if Dubas expects to get fired he could do it for maximum chaos.

 

[Nylander88]

Minimal assumptions - Brown gone for a pick, Ritchie for a million, Horton to LTIR, Kap and AJ at 3.2 and 3.4 as reported.

Healthy

Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Moore-Kadri-Kap
Mikheyev-Gauthier-Ritchie
Petan

Rielly-Dermott
Muzzin-Zaitsev
Rosen-Liljegren
Holl

Andersen
Sparks

300k left to play.

Too much gambling in that defense. Need to at least free up a couple million for a Hainsey type stop gap.
Comes down to Kadri/Zaits imo.

Agreed. I'm fine with that lineup up front. And if we can unload Zaitsev, trade for Miller, sign a guy cheap. We'd be almost the exact same.
Zaitsev 4.5 out, Miller 3.8 in, .7 prove it deal to McQuaid or Phaneuf, whoever wants it more.

Start the year:
Rielly-Miller
Muzzin-Liljegren
Rosen-McQuaid/Phaneuf

Dermott comes back, guy who has struggled most sits

 

[nuck]

You will need your own 2020 1st rd pick for most RFA offer sheets - its in carolina.
UFA they may be talking to some mid level guys- Big names(panarin/MD/Pavalski ) won't bother as leafs do not have the cap space to get them.

If they don't have Marner they would have to address other options in the same way as if they kept him. Add Panarin, or offer sheet Aho and probably move Nylander. With or without Mitch they are likely to need to move Willie to solve their other cap issues unless they lose MM, take the picks and try to roll with Willie, Kap and maybe Bracco on the right. The silver lining is the D improvements they might be able to make with 4 1sts to throw around.

The most likely thing IMO is they re-up Marner and deal Nylander for a D and a bit of cap relief but those other deals are definitely possible. The front loading scenario TSN presented for an Aho OS where they would pay over $20M in a 12 month period might be too rich for Dundon's tastes. The leafs lose their 4 picks but they have another team's for losing Marner so its essentially Marner for Aho with a better contract.

 

[The CyNick]

Do you think that there's no smart money out that looks for lines to get out of hand to bet against them?

I think there's more dumb gamblers than smart ones. Like its not even close. Among hockey fans, I would say the largest base of dumb gamblers would be leafs fans, then likely habs fans, then maybe rangers or Canucks fans.

 

[18leafsfan18]

4 1sts don't make us better this season. In theory you could use the picks to get better, but it's limited because even without marner we have limited cap space. Myers will cost $7M per season. He's okay, but he's not a difference maker.

Or they could trade Marner instead of doing Offer Sheet. Apparently that's what old Burke did with Kessel (Heard on Overdrive, Lebrun I think) .

Threaten offer sheet, then Boston decided to trade instead.

 

[Matthews34]

Or they could trade Marner instead of doing Offer Sheet. Apparently that's what old Burke did with Kessel (Heard on Overdrive, Lebrun I think) .

Threaten offer sheet, then Boston decided to trade instead.

Burke is a moron. He could've OSed Keesel for 1st, 2nd and 3rd instead he trades Boston 2 1sts and 2nds after forcing then to trade him. It was like a Looney Toons cartoon skit.

 

[ACC1224]

Burke is a moron. He could've OSed Keesel for 1st, 2nd and 3rd instead he trades Boston 2 1sts and 2nds after forcing then to trade him. It was like a Looney Toons cartoon skit.

Boston would have matched.

 

[The CyNick]

Or they could trade Marner instead of doing Offer Sheet. Apparently that's what old Burke did with Kessel (Heard on Overdrive, Lebrun I think) .

Threaten offer sheet, then Boston decided to trade instead.

It's the most logical play for all involved.

The acquiring team doesn't have to pay a crazy number and doesn't have to give away only picks.

The losing team gets a chance to acquire actual players instead of just picks.

 

[Menzinger]

What if Marner is fine with the money but only wants 5 years like Matthews/Nylander?

Then who gets the blame?

Its jn his rights to ask for whatever he wants, but the GM needs to look out for team interests. Leafs would likely respond offering him a 2-3 year bridge if he wants term on the shorter side (with a lower aav).

Overall I dont think there's a clear answer to your question. But not budging on term like that would likely be his ticket out of town sooner rather than later regardless.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think there's more dumb gamblers than smart ones. Like its not even close. Among hockey fans, I would say the largest base of dumb gamblers would be leafs fans, then likely habs fans, then maybe rangers or Canucks fans.

the smart ones end up with all the dollars, which is what makes their votes count for a lot more.

 

[Nylander88]

I'd be very interested in Matthew Tkachuk if a trade situation gets forced upon us. He's pals with Matthews so Matthews would essentially lose one friend, but gain another back. I'm sure Matthews would like Tkachuk and his fiesty attitude on his wing. We need left wingers right now more than right wingers too. Tkachuk likely comes in at a price tag 2-3 million less than Marner. We give up the better forward,we want the better deal on D.
To Calgary: Marner + Zaitsev
To Toronto: Tkachuk + Hamonic
I could live with it. Saves us a bit of $$ too.
We have a team to try and ice come October. It's going to be super hard to have 3 guys making 11. Nobody else is doing it. I'm starting to warm to the idea of just taking the 4 picks for Marner too. Go shopping at grab Ferland. We'll be fine if Marner doesn't want to be here

 

[The CyNick]

the smart ones end up with all the dollars, which is what makes their votes count for a lot more.

Depends how much they are betting. If you're running a book, you rely on the dumb bets and guard against the smart betters.

The leafs were the odds on favorite to win the cup at some point last year. I don't think anyone had them as the top team in the league in terms of on ice.

 

[BallardEra]

Any word on how "brisk" the talks have gone today?

 

[Mad hatter]

We're likely out of the playoffs without marner.

We still have Matthews, JT and Kadri up the middle and Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson, Hyman for the top 2 lines, Rielly and Andersson. As it stands right now we are obviously a much better team with then without him but that $10 million in cap sure could upgrade the D. With a upgraded D and money to get another top 6 still I feel we’d be fine and probably much deeper. Losing a player as talented as Mitch would really suck but pretty sure we’d make the playoffs still.