Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part X | Will Mitch get an OS?

[BlueForever75]

Marner either signs for 6, 7 or 8 years. There us no other choice now.

Unless of course he would be willing to sign a 3yr bridge deal!!!!!! But nothing in between.

How about this Paul, let Marner sign a 6.816 million per 3yr bridge deal. Bet on yourself since your so convinced that he is a star. Come 3 yrs from now he can bank in.

 

[The CyNick]

Even at 3 years, I don't think he's taking less than $9M per year.

 

[leburn98]

I'm surprised that hardly anyone in the media is talking about Sebastian Aho. If I were a team like the Habs or Rangers I would offer $10m per/8 yr. Structure the contract so you are paying out the majority in signing bonus. The Canes may have the cap space, but they would be in a bind having to fork out $9m on July 1st for each of the next 8 years.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Marner. If he wanted a 5 year contract he should have hurried to the front of the line before Nylander and Matthews got their deals done. That's no longer on the table and that's on the guy who didn't want to negotiate until this season was over.

Same kind of thinking but in reverse (more or less) should apply, no? If we wanted a 8-year term, maybe we should have tried getting the contract done earlier? Keywords -> Foresight, asset planning, cap management ....???

 

[thewave]

What does a Maple Leafs team with Marner on a 10.5m/y deal actually look like at this point? That D situation looks 1000x more important to fix than even signing Marner this season. I mean, if we roll the D we have right now we probably aren't in the PO.

 

[BlueForever75]

Even at 3 years, I don't think he's taking less than $9M per year.

Has no choice, no UFA years bought out. Tell him you will give him Nylander money on 3yrs in stead of 6. That's prorated to 13.8 million a season value. More then enough.

 

[Buds17]

What if Marner is fine with the money but only wants 5 years like Matthews/Nylander?

Then who gets the blame?

Perhaps a bit of both. If Marner was willing to sign for 9M x 8, that'll be compared to whatever he ends up signing for when he re-signs. If Marner's camp didn't want to sign during the season, then that puts a rush on things to get done in a tighter time period.

We know that the three contracts being up for renewal at the same time would make for a really tough cap situation, but what if that is the only alternative? Is it a matter of trading someone to avoid it at all costs? Or, does keeping "everyone" help the Cup situation enough where you can grin and bear it if the result is a Cup win?

 

[Randy Randerson]

the Dreger puppet stuff is killing me, this has been totally worth not having Marner signed

 

[The CyNick]

I'm surprised that hardly anyone in the media is talking about Sebastian Aho. If I were a team like the Habs or Rangers I would offer $10m per/8 yr. Structure the contract so you are paying out the majority in signing bonus. The Canes may have the cap space, but they would be in a bind having to fork out $9m on July 1st for each of the next 8 years.

That exact thing was discussed on TSN this morning with Dregs.

 

[The CyNick]

Has no choice, no UFA years bought out. Tell him you will give him Nylander money on 3yrs in stead of 6. That's prorated to 13.8 million a season value. More then enough.

He can sit out though, just like nylander did and wait for the GM to cave again.

Imagine the stories if Dubas goes into a second straight season missing a key piece.

Imagine we then have a tough start. He'll be gone before you can say JFJ.

 

[4thline]

They're not going to have 10 million in cap space then.

Trust me.

That would be a decision they make, it's not about the "pro-rating" that Cap friendly and TSN misrepresent.

 

[The CyNick]

What does a Maple Leafs team with Marner on a 10.5m/y deal actually look like at this point? That D situation looks 1000x more important to fix than even signing Marner this season. I mean, if we roll the D we have right now we probably aren't in the PO.

We're likely out of the playoffs without marner.

 

[biotk]

I'm surprised that hardly anyone in the media is talking about Sebastian Aho.

Probably because Aho has says that it is not interested in signing elsewhere, whereas Marner is actively seeking an OS.

 

[Randy Randerson]

We're likely out of the playoffs without marner.

oddsmakers will disagree with that, currently the 4th most likely team to win the cup in 2020: https://www.oddsshark.com/nhl/stanl...om&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial

 

[18leafsfan18]

We're likely out of the playoffs without marner.

Without Marner and without doing anything else I would agree.

But if Marner is gone there could be some large changes that make the team better or worse (Trade or the 4 1st round picks).

 

[The CyNick]

oddsmakers will disagree with that, currently the 4th most likely team to win the cup in 2020: https://www.oddsshark.com/nhl/stanl...om&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial

I don't think you understand how odds work.

I didn't click on the link, but is it factoring the leafs without marner?

 

[Hockey Crazy]

What does a Maple Leafs team with Marner on a 10.5m/y deal actually look like at this point? That D situation looks 1000x more important to fix than even signing Marner this season. I mean, if we roll the D we have right now we probably aren't in the PO.

1st: Making a decision to address the D this season rather than sign a guy who will likely be a career-long star for our team is asinine.

2nd: Our team should make the playoffs with the roster as is, based on the firepower and LD alone. The goal is to be a top 3 team.

 

[The CyNick]

Without Marner and without doing anything else I would agree.

But if Marner is gone there could be some large changes that make the team better or worse (Trade or the 4 1st round picks).

4 1sts don't make us better this season. In theory you could use the picks to get better, but it's limited because even without marner we have limited cap space. Myers will cost $7M per season. He's okay, but he's not a difference maker.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I don't think you understand how odds work.

I didn't click on the link, but is it factoring the leafs without marner?

Oh I don't? Please enlighten me, oh wise Gimmick.

It will be calculated with a high, but less than 100% probability of having Marner on the team. You can remove Marner and the oddsmakers will still say that Toronto is a very safe bet for the playoffs.

 

[Mess]

Nylander is on a 6 year contract

The length is actually not as important as the # of UFA years purchased and the CBA states Age 27 or 7 years of NHL service qualifies a player for unrestricted free agency.

Because Willy played a year in the AHL he would qualify a year later for UFA status than Marner and Matthews, so essentially a 5 year deal for Marner/Matthews = 6 years deal for Nylander because they all would be just 1 year of UFA status from the players.

So for Marner/Matthews it would be 3 year ELC in NHL + 4 more RFA years = 7 years of service + 1 year UFA status (on a 5 year deal) and for Nylander he only had 2 years of NHL service and blew 1 year of his ELC going between NHL and AHL, so a 5 year contract would = 7 years NHL service + extra 6th year = the 1 UFA year similarly.

So contract are based on pricing RFA years and UFA years differently with UFA >> RFA in cost.

 

[The CyNick]

Oh I don't? Please enlighten me, oh wise Gimmick.

It will be calculated with a high, but less than 100% probability of having Marner on the team. You can remove Marner and the oddsmakers will still say that Toronto is a very safe bet for the playoffs.

You should do some investigation on how oddsmakers set odds. Remember, there's a sucker born every minute. The larger the fanbase, the more suckers.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You should do some investigation on how oddsmakers set odds. Remember, there's a sucker born every minute. The larger the fanbase, the more suckers.

cool man, seems like a lot of words to use where "I'm wrong" would have done just fine

 

[CelticDruid]

1st: Making a decision to address the D this season rather than sign a guy who will likely be a career-long star for our team is asinine.

2nd: Our team should make the playoffs with the roster as is, based on the firepower and LD alone. The goal is to be a top 3 team.

Not a chance that we get into the postseason. Andersen will need to be pulled due to shell shock after 25 mins. Our D is by far the cause for concern.

 

[The CyNick]

cool man, seems like a lot of words use where "I'm wrong" would have done just fine

Except I'm not. You think odds are set based on who is projected to win, when really it's just based on where the action is at a given point in time.

Don't get upset because you didn't know. Think of interactions with me as an opportunity to educate yourself.

 

[Kiwi]

Even at 3 years, I don't think he's taking less than $9M per year.

I know this doesn't exist but I'll ask anyway, what's your comparable for a 9M×3 bridge?, that's in line cap % wise with Kanes 5 year deal

So I'd like to know why Marner gets 2 less years for the same cap % as a guy with comparable production at the same point of there careers that had won some stuff?