Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part X | Will Mitch get an OS?

[Macman]

I think he will get an offer sheet, but will we ever know about it? I honestly think he'd only sign if the offer is in the range that he knows the Leafs would match. I just can't see him willingly leaving. This has become a dangerous game of chicken.

 

[Macallan18]

It would be hilarious if Nylander outproduces Marner next year and the narrative goes to: Well he only produced because of Matthews, and trade his while his value is still high.

Nylander could quickly turn into the best forward contract on the team tbh (Unless Kadri bounces back or Kappy/Johnsson have a monster year as well). He's not that far behind Marner when both are at the tops of their games.

Matthews-Nylander actually have a higher xGF% than Tavares-Marner. We need Babcock to smarten up and keep both pairs together for the year.

or get a new coach who has the brains and lack of stubborness to figure this out.

 

[Macallan18]

If he gets a good offer idk why he doesn't sign . Isn't it his home town / he's a childhood fan ? Why wouldn't he take a good offer ?

Because his dad says the Leafs have disrepected him.

 

[Macallan18]

As much as I like this Marner kid, if history repeats itself, wouldn't be the first time the return from an over-hyped young player brings in enough for that team to go win the Cup.

thinking Lindros and the Avs?

 

[Macallan18]

I think he will get an offer sheet, but will we ever know about it? I honestly think he'd only sign if the offer is in the range that he knows the Leafs would match. I just can't see him willingly leaving. This has become a dangerous game of chicken.

I just don't see how this is dangerous.
Seriously, if it is an offer where we get 4 first rounders, from an asset management point of view, 10 million in cap space plus 4 first rounders is simply worth more that Marner. Full stop.

 

[Confucius]

I'm tired of overpaying, I'd rather wait for Mitch to get an offer sheet to find his real worth. I've lost a little faith in our management on assessing a players worth, we always overpay.
If some team offers Mitch x dollars plus picks, it's safe to say he is worth x dollars and no picks.

 

[nuck]

By exploring the offersheet market, he's literally opening up the door for Dubas to trade him...if an interested team offers Dubas a package that makes the Leafs a better team and one that's too good to turn down, Marner could be gone even if he doesn't sign an offersheet.

I believe KD absolutely does not have the spine to do this unless the guaranteed ask from the Marners is beyond whatever he and Shanny's adios Mitchacho number is. He is very attached to these players and the idea of winning with them. That's is why he let the Nylanders jack him and why Austin got the deal he did, so I believe he won't go the trade rout without a gun to his head. Marner still has to agree to go to the trading team so it would fall on them wouldn't it, to approach the leafs before he signs their OS, and say, "we know his number and we believe he will come play with us, do you want to sub some other nice parts for a few of those number 1s?"

And not sure if the Marners want that as TO is supposedly his ideal destination so he really wants the OS in front of him to leverage the club into matching, rather than conceding that final bullet by agreeing to a trade. If the Leafs want the trade rather than the OS, he wants the OS because that give him a better shot at being retained. Mitch's clear win would be for an OS that exceeds the club's best offer, but them still matching so he gets his ideal location and the max payday. Anything else would less desirable.

 

[Brun0]

Lets compair the production of all those in the last 2 years + playoffs.

Rantanen:
Regular season:

2017-18	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	81	29	55	84
	Finland “A”	WC	8	5	6	11
	Finland (all)	International	8	5	6	11
2018-19	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	74	31	56	87

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	Playoffs	6	0	4	4
	Finland “A”	WC
	Finland (all)	International
2018-19	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	Playoffs	12	6	8	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment: Has scored more than marner past 2 years. Solid playoffs dispite injured.

Aho:
Regular season:

2017-18	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	78	29	36	65
	Finland “A”	WC	8	9	9	18
	Finland (all)	International	9	10	9	19
2018-19	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	82	30	53	83

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL
	Finland “A”	WC
	Finland (all)	International
2018-19	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	Playoffs	15	5	7	12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment:
Has almost the sam production but is a center and plays with significantly worse players. Solid playoffs despite injured.

Laine:
Reguler season:

2017-18	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	82	44	26	70	24	8
2018-19	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	82	30	20	50	42	-24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	Playoffs	17	5	7	12	4	2
2018-19	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	Playoffs	6	3	1	4	0	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment: Laine was injured this whole season but is close to a generational goalscorer. 44 goals a 19 year old.

Marner:
Regular season:

2017-18	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	82	22	47	69	26	-1
2018-19	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	82	26	68	94	22	22

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Playoffs	7	2	7	9	4	2
2018-19	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Playoffs	7	2	2	4	2	-4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment: is a good player, player with great players. Ok playoffs but nothing special.


My question is, how is Marner more valuable or is just some canadian home town bias?

 

[MyBudJT]

I believe KD absolutely does not have the spine to do this unless the guaranteed ask from the Marners is beyond whatever he and Shanny's adios Mitchacho number is. He is very attached to these players and the idea of winning with them. That's is why he let the Nylanders jack him and why Austin got the deal he did, so I believe he won't go the trade rout without a gun to his head. Marner still has to agree to go to the trading team so it would fall on them wouldn't it, to approach the leafs before he signs their OS, and say, "we know his number and we believe he will come play with us, do you want to sub some other nice parts for a few of those number 1s?"

And not sure if the Marners want that as TO is supposedly his ideal destination so he really wants the OS in front of him to leverage the club into matching, rather than conceding that final bullet by agreeing to a trade. If the Leafs want the trade rather than the OS, he wants the OS because that give him a better shot at being retained. Mitch's clear win would be for an OS that exceeds the club's best offer, but them still matching so he gets his ideal location and the max payday. Anything else would less desirable.

We don't even know if this is true. Yes, listening to other teams will create more leverage for the Marner ca6mp, but we have no knowledge how reasonable or unreasonable they're being. Whether they are demanding we match, or just increase our offer.

Lets say Toronto offered 10x8 (as rumoured).
Lets say another Team offered 10x5....

Marner's camp may not say "You must match 10x5 or I'll sign an offersheet", they could say "Give us 10x6 or we'll sign for 10x5.

This would be well within their right, and wouldn't be unreasonable at all.

 

[Macman]

I just don't see how this is dangerous.
Seriously, if it is an offer where we get 4 first rounders, from an asset management point of view, 10 million in cap space plus 4 first rounders is simply worth more that Marner. Full stop.

Not in my opinion. Four first rounders, likely in the 20s, in no way equals what Marner brings to the table in terms of productivity and entertainment. He's the most exciting player this organization has ever had and I'm not ready to lose that when his career has barely started. Unless, of course, an offer sheet is absolutely asinine. A $10-million offer would be an easy match by the Leafs.

 

[MyBudJT]

Lets compair the production of all those in the last 2 years + playoffs.

Rantanen:
Regular season:

2017-18	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	81	29	55	84
	Finland “A”	WC	8	5	6	11
	Finland (all)	International	8	5	6	11
2018-19	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	74	31	56	87

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	Playoffs	6	0	4	4
	Finland “A”	WC
	Finland (all)	International
2018-19	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	Playoffs	12	6	8	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment: Has scored more than marner past 2 years. Solid playoffs dispite injured.

Aho:
Regular season:

2017-18	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	78	29	36	65
	Finland “A”	WC	8	9	9	18
	Finland (all)	International	9	10	9	19
2018-19	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	82	30	53	83

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL
	Finland “A”	WC
	Finland (all)	International
2018-19	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	Playoffs	15	5	7	12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment:
Has almost the sam production but is a center and plays with significantly worse players. Solid playoffs despite injured.

Laine:
Reguler season:

2017-18	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	82	44	26	70	24	8
2018-19	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	82	30	20	50	42	-24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	Playoffs	17	5	7	12	4	2
2018-19	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	Playoffs	6	3	1	4	0	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment: Laine was injured this whole season but is close to a generational goalscorer. 44 goals a 19 year old.

Marner:
Regular season:

2017-18	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	82	22	47	69	26	-1
2018-19	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	82	26	68	94	22	22

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Playoffs	7	2	7	9	4	2
2018-19	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Playoffs	7	2	2	4	2	-4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment: is a good player, player with great players. Ok playoffs but nothing special.


My question is, how is Marner more valuable or is just some canadian home town bias?

Put your biases away, dude. Marner either out paced or out produced all of your players in the playoffs, and you're saying that Marner's playoffs was nothig special, but the other ones were solid? That is comical!!

 

[Stigma]

Lets compair the production of all those in the last 2 years + playoffs.

Rantanen:
Regular season:

2017-18	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	81	29	55	84
	Finland “A”	WC	8	5	6	11
	Finland (all)	International	8	5	6	11
2018-19	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	74	31	56	87

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	Playoffs	6	0	4	4
	Finland “A”	WC
	Finland (all)	International
2018-19	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	Playoffs	12	6	8	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment: Has scored more than marner past 2 years. Solid playoffs dispite injured.

Aho:
Regular season:

2017-18	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	78	29	36	65
	Finland “A”	WC	8	9	9	18
	Finland (all)	International	9	10	9	19
2018-19	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	82	30	53	83

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL
	Finland “A”	WC
	Finland (all)	International
2018-19	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	Playoffs	15	5	7	12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment:
Has almost the sam production but is a center and plays with significantly worse players. Solid playoffs despite injured.

Laine:
Reguler season:

2017-18	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	82	44	26	70	24	8
2018-19	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	82	30	20	50	42	-24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	Playoffs	17	5	7	12	4	2
2018-19	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	Playoffs	6	3	1	4	0	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment: Laine was injured this whole season but is close to a generational goalscorer. 44 goals a 19 year old.

Marner:
Regular season:

2017-18	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	82	22	47	69	26	-1
2018-19	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	82	26	68	94	22	22

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Playoffs	7	2	7	9	4	2
2018-19	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Playoffs	7	2	2	4	2	-4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment: is a good player, player with great players. Ok playoffs but nothing special.


My question is, how is Marner more valuable or is just some canadian home town bias?

This is a good post. I love Marner, but he's right there with Aho, Laine and Rantanen. He's not a tier above them. The stats prove it. This is not a bad thing. They're all great.

 

[Sypher04]

I'm tired of overpaying, I'd rather wait for Mitch to get an offer sheet to find his real worth. I've lost a little faith in our management on assessing a players worth, we always overpay.
If some team offers Mitch x dollars plus picks, it's safe to say he is worth x dollars and no picks.

Offersheets would virtually only ever work by being signed at an overpayment, so this is a really odd stance to take.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Lets compair the production of all those in the last 2 years + playoffs.

Rantanen:
Regular season:

2017-18	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	81	29	55	84
	Finland “A”	WC	8	5	6	11
	Finland (all)	International	8	5	6	11
2018-19	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	74	31	56	87

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	Playoffs	6	0	4	4
	Finland “A”	WC
	Finland (all)	International
2018-19	Colorado Avalanche	NHL	Playoffs	12	6	8	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment: Has scored more than marner past 2 years. Solid playoffs dispite injured.

Aho:
Regular season:

2017-18	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	78	29	36	65
	Finland “A”	WC	8	9	9	18
	Finland (all)	International	9	10	9	19
2018-19	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	82	30	53	83

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL
	Finland “A”	WC
	Finland (all)	International
2018-19	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	Playoffs	15	5	7	12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment:
Has almost the sam production but is a center and plays with significantly worse players. Solid playoffs despite injured.

Laine:
Reguler season:

2017-18	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	82	44	26	70	24	8
2018-19	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	82	30	20	50	42	-24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	Playoffs	17	5	7	12	4	2
2018-19	Winnipeg Jets	NHL	Playoffs	6	3	1	4	0	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment: Laine was injured this whole season but is close to a generational goalscorer. 44 goals a 19 year old.

Marner:
Regular season:

2017-18	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	82	22	47	69	26	-1
2018-19	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	82	26	68	94	22	22

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Playoffs:

2017-18	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Playoffs	7	2	7	9	4	2
2018-19	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Playoffs	7	2	2	4	2	-4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Comment: is a good player, player with great players. Ok playoffs but nothing special.


My question is, how is Marner more valuable or is just some canadian home town bias?

When talking about Auston matthews, the only things that matter are points/60 and not total points.

But now its total points that matter. Interesting.

 

[Legendary]

Best case scenario at this point is a bubble team offer sheets him and we get cap space and hopefully 4 potential lottery picks. Worse case scenario is anything else.

 

[HappyJoy]

If he gets a good offer idk why he doesn't sign . Isn't it his home town / he's a childhood fan ? Why wouldn't he take a good offer ?

It's a persona that he and his camp has cultivated and gullible fanboys have been eating it up. The TSN/Sportsnet coverage have played a big part aswell.

Sure it's his Right to talk to other teams, but to fans that still thinks he's a good 'ol Ontario boi after this I have a bridge to sell. But like most conned people they will dig in and even try to rationalize that giving MM a 11x8 isn't a overpay.

 

[Stamkos4life]

It would be hilarious if Nylander outproduces Marner next year and the narrative goes to: Well he only produced because of Matthews, and trade his while his value is still high.

Nylander could quickly turn into the best forward contract on the team tbh (Unless Kadri bounces back or Kappy/Johnsson have a monster year as well). He's not that far behind Marner when both are at the tops of their games.

Matthews-Nylander actually have a higher xGF% than Tavares-Marner. We need Babcock to smarten up and keep both pairs together for the year.

It would also be hilarious if nylander is still only a 60 point player and marner breaks 100 points! Then the narrative would switch to "oh he only produced because of tavares, trade him while his value is high!"

Nylander was paid 6.962mil, basically 7mil, after:
13 points, 6 goals, in 22 games
61 points, 22 goals, in 81 games
61 points, 20 goals, in 82 games
Ppg:0.729
Gpg:0.259

Arvidsson was paid 4.25 mil after:
16 points, 8 goals, in 56 games
61 points, 31 goals, in 80 games
Ppg:0.566
Gpg:0.287

So nylander was paid ~2.75 mil more than arvidsson, on a 1 year shorter contract, for having 0.163 higher ppg and a worse gpg. All while playing with Auston Matthews. Granted he had 2 season above 60 points

Marner
61 points, 19 goals, in 77 games
69 points, 22 goals, in 82 games
94 points, 26 goals, in 82 games
Ppg:0.929
Gpg:0.278

So marner has a career high of 33 more points than nylander, led the team in scoring for 2 seasons, actually increased his totals each season, has more goals, his ppg is 0.2 higher, plays the pk, is trusted in the last minute of the game, etc. Also points dont scale evenly so 90 points is worth quite a bit more then 60.

I'd argue marner is worth at least 3-4 mil more than nylander on a 1 year shorter deal. That would mean 10-11mil on a 5 year deal would be roughly equivalent.

I hope marner comes in at less but if you are happy with nylander at 7x6, you should have no problem with marner at 10.5x5. It's only fair.

 

[BlueForever75]

Not in my opinion. Four first rounders, likely in the 20s, in no way equals what Marner brings to the table in terms of productivity and entertainment. He's the most exciting player this organization has ever had and I'm not ready to lose that when his career has barely started. Unless, of course, an offer sheet is absolutely asinine. A $10-million offer would be an easy match by the Leafs.

Everyone seems to think that the 4 first rounders need to be kept by the Leafs. They can easily be parlayed into 2 young proven players to add to the core.

Would you trade 2 first rounders to let say Florida for Ekblad?
Obviously more to the deal. But would be a blazing start to get your D in order.
How about 2 first rounders to a team like Carolina or NJ for one if their many dmen?

Just because Marner gains us 4 first round picks. Doesn’t mean we use them to improve our team at the draft.

People need to remember no Marner means 10 million in additional cap space to acquire salary in deals without giving off your roster. Means players like Kadri or Nylander or Kapanen or Johnsson stay with the team.

You have the ability to entice teams to trade dmen to us and we would be able to acquire 2 dmen making 4.5-5.5 million a season to shore up our D.

And you can still trade Brown and Zaitsev to make more space to improve you 4th line and 3rd pairing.

People need to have an open mind.

Two top 4 dmen, better 4th line center, better 4th line winger, and better 3rd pairing dmen is worth Marner for me. Especially if it means keeping other skill and talent up front.

 

[HappyJoy]

I believe KD absolutely does not have the spine to do this unless the guaranteed ask from the Marners is beyond whatever he and Shanny's adios Mitchacho number is. He is very attached to these players and the idea of winning with them. That's is why he let the Nylanders jack him and why Austin got the deal he did, so I believe he won't go the trade rout without a gun to his head. Marner still has to agree to go to the trading team so it would fall on them wouldn't it, to approach the leafs before he signs their OS, and say, "we know his number and we believe he will come play with us, do you want to sub some other nice parts for a few of those number 1s?"

And not sure if the Marners want that as TO is supposedly his ideal destination so he really wants the OS in front of him to leverage the club into matching, rather than conceding that final bullet by agreeing to a trade. If the Leafs want the trade rather than the OS, he wants the OS because that give him a better shot at being retained. Mitch's clear win would be for an OS that exceeds the club's best offer, but them still matching so he gets his ideal location and the max payday. Anything else would less desirable.

He's a RFA. I'm pretty sure he can get traded to FLA for a bag of pucks if Dubas wanted to. Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

When talking about Auston matthews, the only things that matter are points/60 and not total points.

But now its total points that matter. Interesting.

Correction... when talking Matthews, the only thing that mattered was GOALS/60. Not points, ppg, or total points.

Rantanen is hands down the best comparable for Marner. Marner had a better rookie year, but Rantanen had a much better sophomore year. Their 3rd years were VERY close (considering Rantanen missed 8 games). That right there pretty much evens out.

Rantanen had significantly more PP time than Marner. But Rantanen also scored significantly more goals than Marner. So those two points pretty much balance out as well.

Rantanen's center had a slightly better season than Tavares last year... but it's pretty bloody close and not enough to consider one way or the other.

Rantanen is a DIRECT comparable to Marner.

Let's see how good Dubas is at his job when both these players sign.

 

[thewave]

Screw this I am done with overpays, lets just trade Matthews already and be done with it. I mean, that's it, just trade him away and tell Mitch 9m right now or you're next big boy.

 

[Macman]

Screw this I am done with overpays, lets just trade Matthews already and be done with it. I mean, that's it, just trade him away and tell Mitch 9m right now or you're next big boy.

Good plan.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

June 29 is the day Stamkos re-signed with Tampa.

No pressure, Mitch.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Everyone seems to think that the 4 first rounders need to be kept by the Leafs. They can easily be parlayed into 2 young proven players to add to the core.

Would you trade 2 first rounders to let say Florida for Ekblad?
Obviously more to the deal. But would be a blazing start to get your D in order.
How about 2 first rounders to a team like Carolina or NJ for one if their many dmen?

Just because Marner gains us 4 first round picks. Doesn’t mean we use them to improve our team at the draft.

People need to remember no Marner means 10 million in additional cap space to acquire salary in deals without giving off your roster. Means players like Kadri or Nylander or Kapanen or Johnsson stay with the team.

You have the ability to entice teams to trade dmen to us and we would be able to acquire 2 dmen making 4.5-5.5 million a season to shore up our D.

And you can still trade Brown and Zaitsev to make more space to improve you 4th line and 3rd pairing.

People need to have an open mind.

Two top 4 dmen, better 4th line center, better 4th line winger, and better 3rd pairing dmen is worth Marner for me. Especially if it means keeping other skill and talent up front.

I want Ekblad so badly. Him and Rielly are a dream pair. But yea I agree. Use the cap space and picks to upgrade the roster.

Or better yet. If a team is willing to give Mitch over $10.5M AND cough up 4 first round picks, why wouldn't we just go to said team and say hey, we'll trade you Marner so you can get him signed to a half decent deal, but you give us your best player+++ and they can keep the first round picks. Anything over $10.5M makes him the 6th highest payed player in the game. If a GM out there thinks he's worth it I would take him to the cleaners.

 

[Heisen]

Paul Marner is obviously a bad person. This means Mitch is too. The only option is to trade the cancer