Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VIII | We Waitin'

[MattySnipes]

The thing about the Nylander deal, sentiment around the league was bewilderment it took until the 11th hour to get that player friendly deal, could have been done in the summer. Dubas admitted he slow played the Nylander negotiations, hardly met at all early on. Marner was always going after Nylander, so you sew up Willie then Marner before the season. Even if you gave Willie 7.5 on a longer deal in the summer, you could have got Marner for 8.5-9. The error was not computing letting the horse out of the barn, Marner poised for a big year, then add in JT, I'd bet it all. The lack of urgency, then caving anyways, is what set up this mess.

I see what you're saying and they're good points, it's possible Dubas didn't see all that unfolding.

How much cap space did they have left after signing JT? He took 11. We had Nylander hold out to fit him in at ~$7M. Then Matthews contract came after at $11.634. Muzzin near the trade deadline.

It's hard to see it all play out but if your plan ended up happening with JT signing first, then Willy, then Mitch. You leave your #1 overall pick last, you think he doesn't take more now that Mitch is at around 9 for a 69-point season?

I think in the end it'll all even out. We either come out on top or are overpaying our talent a bit.

I don't think Dubas is perfect, he is still learning but is well insulated with people around him. There isn't a GM out there that is a master negotiator, trader, and talent evaluator all in one.

I really like the AJ and Kap deals too. Sure it came at the expense of giving away a first to rid ourselves of Marleau who just fell off of a cliff. But even so, I'd rather keep one of those than trade them along with Marleau just to keep a mid-first prospect 2-3 years away. We developed Kap and AJ. Time to reap the benefits.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Yes, but the Leafs might be the first team to pay 3 players 11+ million before any other team has paid 3 players what? Has a team ever played 3 players 8 million? The cap goes up, but three salaries at 11+ million and this team is likely not only not a contender, it will be lucky to make the playoffs most years.

First of all the Leafs aren't paying 3 players over 10 even now. Marner does not have a deal yet.

Pitt just won 2 cups with top salaries of 9.5 , 8.7, and 7.25. 2 of those contracts were signed a long time ago.

That's the equivalent to 3 players making over 8.

 

[MattySnipes]

I agree that some uninformed people would think $9M x 8 was an overpayment last summer. But then when this past season ended, everyone would have said the GM is a genius.

That's how she goes sometimes dude. If he didn't even hit 60 with JT, they'd say Dubas is an idiot and should be fired. You can't win. As long as they believe they are doing what's right for the team in the present and long-term I'm okay.

 

[Joey Hoser]

I kinda feel like Dubas is waiting to either sign an offer sheet given to Mitch or accept the compensation. If it's inline with what he wants he will sign it. If it's too high an AAV he will accept the 4 picks.

If I were Dubas, I'd be waiting to call the "meeting with other teams" bluff. No chance Marner goes and sits in a Florida Panthers(or whoever)office, and seriously considers leaving his boyhood dream over half a million dollars, which he'll lose in endorsements anyway. It's just so dumb.

 

[kb]

Seriously, after the Matthews deal? It's not really shocking-it's madness-but it's the Leafs who set the table.

A goal scoring C (playing with 3rd liners) vs a playmaking winger (playing with an elite C) are not comparables no matter how much gaslighting people wish to try around here.

 

[DarkKnight]

I see what you're saying and they're good points, it's possible Dubas didn't see all that unfolding.

How much cap space did they have left after signing JT? He took 11. We had Nylander hold out to fit him in at ~$7M. Then Matthews contract came after at $11.634. Muzzin near the trade deadline.

It's hard to see it all play out but if your plan ended up happening with JT signing first, then Willy, then Mitch. You leave your #1 overall pick last, you think he doesn't take more now that Mitch is at around 9 for a 69-point season?

I think in the end it'll all even out. We either come out on top or are overpaying our talent a bit.

I don't think Dubas is perfect, he is still learning but is well insulated with people around him. There isn't a GM out there that is a master negotiator, trader, and talent evaluator all in one.

I really like the AJ and Kap deals too. Sure it came at the expense of giving away a first to rid ourselves of Marleau who just fell off of a cliff. But even so, I'd rather keep one of those than trade them along with Marleau just to keep a mid-first prospect 2-3 years away. We developed Kap and AJ. Time to reap the benefits.

I like the Kap and AJ deals too.

 

[Menzinger]

Absolutely not. Marner for Seth Jonoes or he can sit out the season or take an offer sheet.

Jones or Werenski + a young forward woul be fine by me if things get too toxic with Marner.

Blue Jackets seem like they could be a good fit too. Have a couple high valued D man AND are in need of a high valued forward....

 

[18leafsfan18]

If you're using team comparables (Dubie dollars), it's pretty to easy to argue 10 x 5 is fair for Marner, when Matthews got 11.63 x 5. Matthews the superior player, but not by a massive margin, the numbers acknowledge that fact. You can see how his camp sees that as fair using Dubie dollars. I mean reality suggests otherwise, but that doesn't apply here. The precedent has been set, we don't get to go back.

This is where you are wrong. Marner is amazing.

Matthews is way better.

 

[DarkKnight]

A goal scoring C (playing with 3rd liners) vs a playmaking winger (playing with an elite C) are not comparables no matter how much gaslighting people wish to try around here.

You're the only one trying here.

 

[Mr Hockey]

A goal scoring C (playing with 3rd liners) vs a playmaking winger (playing with an elite C) are not comparables no matter how much gaslighting people wish to try around here.

Kappy and AJ are top 6 players on any team ...

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

I agree that some uninformed people would think $9M x 8 was an overpayment last summer. But then when this past season ended, everyone would have said the GM is a genius.

If he was as smart as he thinks he is then he would have given him that contract. Even the average fan could see that Marner would have a monster year playing alongside Tavares. It's not rocket appliance.
I know he had to get Nylander first but even Nylander @ 8/8, Marner 9/8, and Matthews @ $13/8 is better then Nylander 7m/6, Matthews 11.6/5, Marner 11.5/5. Look at all that extra term for the same price.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Seriously, after the Matthews deal? It's not really shocking-it's madness-but it's the Leafs who set the table.

Well doesn’t mean they have to keep overpaying.
I’m kinda of liking what they could do if Marner is overpaid elsewhere
People are so quick to criticize Nylander but other than blocking shot or 2, Marner was kept pretty quiet in the playoffs where it matters most

Want to be the highest paid winger in the game, be the best

 

[kb]

You're the only one trying here.

Show me one example.

Marner can't simply choose his comparables. His comparables are wingers, period. I'd do $10 over 6-7 and even that's an overpay based on comparables. It's fair.

 

[Menzinger]

There is not a single contract in the NHL history that can be used to justify giving a rfa winger 9 million dollars after an career high 69 points.

Marners best contract comparables project him o barely make over 9 mil a season now after a PROVEN 90 point season lol.

This idea that Dubas should have given into a 9 mil a season demand last summer is laughable

 

[DarkKnight]

If he was as smart as he thinks he is then he would have given him that contract. Even the average fan could see that Marner would have a monster year playing alongside Tavares. It's not rocket appliance.
I know he had to get Nylander first but even Nylander @ 8/8, Marner 9/8, and Matthews @ $13/8 is better then Nylander 7m/6, Matthews 11.6/5, Marner 11.5/5. Look at all that extra term for the same price.

Marner had 61 points his last 50 games in 18, then a great playoffs. That's before JT showed up. I mean...

 

[18leafsfan18]

If he was as smart as he thinks he is then he would have given him that contract. Even the average fan could see that Marner would have a monster year playing alongside Tavares. It's not rocket appliance.
I know he had to get Nylander first but even Nylander @ 8/8, Marner 9/8, and Matthews @ $13/8 is better then Nylander 7m/6, Matthews 11.6/5, Marner 11.5/5. Look at all that extra term for the same price.

Wow. If that is marner's offersheet the leafs take the 4 first and laugh.

Good use of trailer park boys though

 

[ToneDog]

Yes....cap hell with good young improving players who didn't get outrageous contracts? Lou on the other hand signed a 38 year old to a bloated contract that is far worse than any Dubas contract - by far. And then 7 years on Zaitsev???
We could trade away the good players if cap compliance beats having good players.

At the time of the Marleau signing Lou had tons of cap and he wanted a mentor for the kids. If he signed that deal now, I would say he was senile.

 

[Havoc]

Kappy and AJ are top 6 players on any team ...

I think the point was there's a huge drop off from Tavares to AJ/Kap. Significant drop off.

Nothing to debate there. That's just a fact none of us can change.

 

[hullsy47]

The thing about the Nylander deal, sentiment around the league was bewilderment it took until the 11th hour to get that player friendly deal, could have been done in the summer. Dubas admitted he slow played the Nylander negotiations, hardly met at all early on. Marner was always going after Nylander, so you sew up Willie then Marner before the season. Even if you gave Willie 7.5 on a longer deal in the summer, you could have got Marner for 8.5-9. The error was not computing letting the horse out of the barn, Marner poised for a big year, then add in JT, I'd bet it all. The lack of urgency, then caving anyways, is what set up this mess.

my guess is Larry tanenbaum may be leery of this becoming a MUSKOKA 5 without getting past the 1st round
personally felt marner was less effective after the hit from chara early in game 6

 

[Menzinger]

Marner had 61 points his last 50 games in 18, then a great playoffs. That's before JT showed up. I mean...

And the first 30 games of that season where he had like 2 goals and was demoted to the 4th line for a while?

 

[jrgtml67]

Lol I was spreading rumours on the main board a while ago that a team was going to offer sheet Marner at 14x5 as a joke.

Ya ok more than McDavid makes lol no chance

 

[Mr Hockey]

I think the point was there's a huge drop off from Tavares to AJ/Kap. Significant drop off.

Nothing to debate there. That's just a fact none of us can change.

He said in brackets they were 3rd liners, I corrected him ... Matthews is a shooting center, he just wants his wingers to give him the puck and get out of his way

 

[Havoc]

He said in brackets they were 3rd liners, I corrected him ... Matthews is a shooting center, he just wants his wingers to give him the puck and get out of his way

Fair enough.

I don't think AJ/Kap are what Matthews needs though. Matthews needs a winger that can thread the needle. Especially given how you just described him. Aj and Kap were pretty mediocre setting him up.

The combination of AJ/Kap would fall to third line on our team due to our high end talent being elite. They don't have the vision or play making ability like our top 4 forwards.

If you split them up then yeah you can disperse them throughout the top 6.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

There is not a single contract in the NHL history that can be used to justify giving a rfa winger 9 million dollars after an career high 69 points.

Marners best contract comparables project him o barely make over 9 mil a season now after a PROVEN 90 point season lol.

This idea that Dubas should have given into a 9 mil a season demand last summer is laughable

It is pure revisionist history. His ask last summer was just as ridiculously unrealistic as his ask this year's is he has just scaled upwards. I am getting tired of the entire thing and honestly don't even care if he gets an offer sheet at this point.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Fair enough.

I don't think AJ/Kap are what Matthews needs though. Matthews needs a winger that can thread the needle. Especially given how you just described him. Aj and Kap were pretty mediocre setting him up.

The combination of AJ/Kap would fall to third line on our team due to our high end talent being elite. They don't have the vision or play making ability like our top 4 forwards.

If you split them up then yeah you can disperse them throughout the top 6.

AJ/Kappy can be used to force turnovers/quick forecheck and use speed to open up space for Matthews ... lots of strategic line options out there