Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

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I think your assumption is wrong, lots of teams will suddenly have lots of room if the cap goes to 97 and projected beyond next season. There will be plenty of GM's dying to land him. I could see 14 on open market.
Even 14x7 => 12.25x8

We have a huge advantage with the 8th year + deferred salary option. I think a deal can be done fairly..fairly easy as long as both sides want it.

A deal starting at 12 should be the goal (for me, if he does well in the playoffs)
 
I’d let him go for 14

I think you're right but not because I don't think he's worth it (he probably is), only because the formula of paying half the cap to 4 players hasn't worked for several years now. This is not an easy situation and I'd hate to have to be the one to make the decisions. This will definitely be a damned if you do and damned if you don't scenario.
 
Better coach, better goaltending, better defense, and a lower quality of competition in the division and conference.
You have no idea which team(s) will turn it up in the playoffs. Was happy to get 4th place Florida instead of record setting 1st place Boston 3 years ago and they mopped the floor with us.
 
Okay, let's go with your proposal of letting him walk, regardless of results this season. Who are you planning to replace him with? Brock Nelson makes $6.5 million (or something like that). Do you want 2 Brock Nelsons? Or how about a Brock Nelson and a Tyler Bertuzzi? Do you honestly believe doing that makes the Leafs a better team?
Well we have to look at it from a Macro perspective. Am I excited about letting him walk for nothing? Not at all, but I wanted him traded during the off-season this past year. We are where we are. So if we let JT and Marner walk/trade/whatever, we have an extra 24-25M in cap space, not including the rising cap. Do I think the Leafs could spend that on addressing centre depth, defense, and goaltending? Absolutely!

D = Hronek + Toews + Montour (7-8M caps)
C = Couture + Beniers + Reinhart + Scheifele (7-8M caps)


Take your pick, because we could have an insane Dcore, or centre core, or a combination there-of. So yes, I think the sum of those parts would make a bigger impact than just Marner and re-upping JT. (I've put little thought into who we could actually sign, etc., just looking at current contracts and team needs).

This is a difference in philosophy, and I get why you guys would re-up both of them. I just think that's the wrong move.
 
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It certainly doesn't seem that way.
That's really all anyone wants is that they are all held to the same standard.
Reading some of the stuff here and you know that's not the case.
I think what he’s pointing out is that Nylander’s lived up to his previous contract while Marner hasn’t (4 mil difference). But ofc he’s wrong!
 
I love how the narrative has shifted the past several months from how horrible Marner is and he must be traded immediately.. to sure he’s playing well in the regular season but the playoffs.. and now it is he’s a great player but we can’t afford him… lol

You guys are almost to acceptance and then we can finally move forward.

Marner is one of the best players in the world, he is having a fantastic year, he’s gonna get paid, and 99.9% that is going to be by Toronto.
Thanks for letting us all know what’s going to happen, you brave soul!
 
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Even 14x7 => 12.25x8

We have a huge advantage with the 8th year + deferred salary option. I think a deal can be done fairly..fairly easy as long as both sides want it.

A deal starting at 12 should be the goal (for me, if he does well in the playoffs)
So if the Leafs have set a ceiling of $13mx8, why has it not been done? Tells me Kyper is in the know and they are asking close to $14m. Some will tell you it is not about the money. Yeah right.
 
Since he’s from the area, he’s such a sweetheart, everyone loves him, he already got paid a lot without any real success, and he definitely want the Leafs the win AND with them - why isn’t he taking a team-friendly deal? He’s the hometown hero! Auston and William as merchants, but he’s an Ontario boi!
 
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I love how the narrative has shifted the past several months from how horrible Marner is and he must be traded immediately.. to sure he’s playing well in the regular season but the playoffs.. and now it is he’s a great player but we can’t afford him… lol

You guys are almost to acceptance and then we can finally move forward.

Marner is one of the best players in the world, he is having a fantastic year, he’s gonna get paid, and 99.9% that is going to be by Toronto.
It’s always been about the playoffs. At no time has it been anything but the playoffs. Never.
 
So if the Leafs have set a ceiling of $13mx8, why has it not been done? Tells me Kyper is in the know and they are asking close to $14m. Some will tell you it is not about the money. Yeah right.
Could be, maybe Marner is waiting himself because he believes in himself and thinks he can push for awards or a strong playoff push

Or maybe leafs have been less engaging due to some reason? With nylander and Matthews we got a decent bit of info like ask and stuff prior to the season, I think nylander wanted 10.5 before last year. Then we even heard things were heating up before they signed, for Matthews it was a done AAV and just fixing term (how Tf is that even possible). Maybe they aren’t discussing as much, or maybe the leafs are not budging at all for now. Who knows.

The longer this goes, the more I feel the team is not the ones engaging. As they did it with Matthews x2 and nylander. I also believe this because we haven’t signed Tavares either.

I’d guess it’s more from the teams side than the players
 
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I think you're right but not because I don't think he's worth it (he probably is), only because the formula of paying half the cap to 4 players hasn't worked for several years now. This is not an easy situation and I'd hate to have to be the one to make the decisions. This will definitely be a damned if you do and damned if you don't scenario.
They'll only be paying 3 going forward. Not sure what the percentage is but it must be less than half.
 
Could be, maybe Marner is waiting himself because he believes in himself and thinks he can push for awards or a strong playoff push

Or maybe leafs have been less engaging due to some reason? With nylander and Matthews we got a decent bit of info like ask and stuff prior to the season, I think nylander wanted 10.5 before last year. Then we even heard things were heating up before they signed, for Matthews it was a done AAV and just fixing term (how Tf is that even possible). Maybe they aren’t discussing as much, or maybe the leafs are not budging at all for now. Who knows.

The longer this goes, the more I feel the team is not the ones engaging. As they did it with Matthews x2 and nylander. I also believe this because we haven’t signed Tavares either.

I’d guess it’s more from the teams side than the players

Or maybe Marner is also contemplating leaving. We have no idea. I think people need to wake up and realize money isn’t the only factor at play. He like many other players could simply just want to see how the cards play out and make his decision from there. Personally I think that’s the hold up, I think he’s deciding whether he wants to be here long term for real. The money is there for him if he wants.

We’ve been hearing that Marner’s camp has received the offer but they’ve been the ones to say let’s wait and see. So I’m sure it’s more about how he and the team does in the playoffs. If they shit the bed, why would Marner even want to stay? Or if he lights it up, he has the leafs by the balls. It’s more advantageous for Marner to wait realistically. If anything the team probably wants the deal done now for two reasons.

1. You do not want to let this go close to UFA because the longer you wait the more likely it is he heads to UFA.

2. If he does end up having a good playoffs he becomes more expensive.

The leafs also have good reason to wait. If things don’t work out they can make a core shake up by letting him walk.
 
Well we have to look at it from a Macro perspective. Am I excited about letting him walk for nothing? Not at all, but I wanted him traded during the off-season this past year. We are where we are. So if we let JT and Marner walk/trade/whatever, we have an extra 24-25M in cap space, not including the rising cap. Do I think the Leafs could spend that on addressing centre depth, defense, and goaltending? Absolutely!

D = Hronek + Toews + Montour (7-8M caps)
C = Couture + Beniers + Reinhart + Scheifele (7-8M caps)


Take your pick, because we could have an insane Dcore, or centre core, or a combination there-of. So yes, I think the sum of those parts would make a bigger impact than just Marner and re-upping JT. (I've put little thought into who we could actually sign, etc., just looking at current contracts and team needs).

This is a difference in philosophy, and I get why you guys would re-up both of them. I just think that's the wrong move.
Sorry, how are you getting any of those guys?
 
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Or maybe Marner is also contemplating leaving. We have no idea. I think people need to wake up and realize money isn’t the only factor at play. He like many other players could simply just want to see how the cards play out and make his decision from there. Personally I think that’s the hold up, I think he’s deciding whether he wants to be here long term for real. The money is there for him if he wants.

We’ve been hearing that Marner’s camp has received the offer but they’ve been the ones to say let’s wait and see. So I’m sure it’s more about how he and the team does in the playoffs. If they shit the bed, why would Marner even want to stay?
Yes that could also be an option

Tbh literally anything is on the table. I think we’ve finally reached our “make or break” season and it might not even be in management’s hands lol.
 
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So if the Leafs have set a ceiling of $13mx8, why has it not been done? Tells me Kyper is in the know and they are asking close to $14m. Some will tell you it is not about the money. Yeah right.
It's ALWAYS about the money to some extent, but both sides will cave to some degree and he will resign here. At the same time, Tavares' cap hit will likely be at least cut in half, so people can stop complaining about paying 4 guys 50% of the cap.
 
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Could be, maybe Marner is waiting himself because he believes in himself and thinks he can push for awards or a strong playoff push

Or maybe leafs have been less engaging due to some reason? With nylander and Matthews we got a decent bit of info like ask and stuff prior to the season, I think nylander wanted 10.5 before last year. Then we even heard things were heating up before they signed, for Matthews it was a done AAV and just fixing term (how Tf is that even possible). Maybe they aren’t discussing as much, or maybe the leafs are not budging at all for now. Who knows.

The longer this goes, the more I feel the team is not the ones engaging. As they did it with Matthews x2 and nylander. I also believe this because we haven’t signed Tavares either.

I’d guess it’s more from the teams side than the players
My understanding is that Nylander gave the Leafs a number in the summer and said, call me you are ready to meet it. Matty has always had a blank cheque.

How much more is he going to squeeze out of the Leafs if the Leafs are offering close to $13mx8 today as per the insider? Ferris is dilutional not accepting that today. He is willing to gamble that Marner does not flop again in the playoffs and can get how much more? He is not doing Marner any favours IMO.
 
You misunderstood why I amplified that play. He avoids contact (look at tape from any playoff series outside of his first year or two), relies on edge work that he can't duplicate when there is much less space, and gets pressured to make poor plays.
I understand why you amplified that play. You think it exemplifies an issue, but the only issue is people thinking it's an issue. Marner doesn't avoid contact. When necessary, he takes hits to make plays, and engages physically himself. He just doesn't get crushed in bad positions for no reason, and doesn't generally default to using physicality to achieve goals that can be achieved through other equal or better options. And there's nothing wrong with that. Many great players won cups the same way. It's called playing to your strengths.

He has some of the best edgework and agility in the league, regular season and playoffs, and while everybody makes mistakes, he doesn't make an abnormal number of "poor plays". He is tasked with some of our most difficult situations and assignments in all game situations, and people don't seem to understand that he is our playmaker, and he is tasked with creating opportunities. People don't seem to understand that there is some inherent risk that goes hand in hand with generating opportunities, especially in the situations we have so often found ourselves in the playoffs - down early and having to push for offense against great teams getting world class goaltending. A well-supported attempt at chance generation with a reasonable level of risk not working out is often mistaken for a "poor play", but something not working out in that instance does not automatically make a play poor. Kucherov is an example of a player that has gotten many of the same criticisms, and yet many treat him like a playoff god. He's far from the only one.
I want players that can create space for themselves in the NHL playoffs, especially in elimination games.
Marner creates space for both himself and his teammates.
I wouldn't classify Nylander as a "crash and bang" player, yet he somehow adapts his game in the playoffs and takes contact to make plays, same with Matthews.
Nylander engages in contact even less than Marner, and is a worse player than Marner in the playoffs.
You explain away every playoff exit as "bad luck", which is insane.
No I don't. I just look at the actual reasons and context behind the exits, and how big the discrepancy actually was, instead of making blind assertions based exclusively on series outcome, and mistaking any correlation for causation. Our losses are disappointing, but they have been wildly overblown by people giving in to emotion over facts and reason. In fact, emotion based decisions over the past two years have just set this team backwards, and you're still advocating for one that would likely put the final nail in the coffin. Change is not inherently good.

And while wins and losses are not just "luck", "luck" and things outside of our control do play a big part in hockey, especially in small samples. Anybody in the game will say the same thing. That's why process is often emphasized over outcomes. Ironically, during the intermission last night, they interviewed Cooper, and they asked him: "If you had to give just one formula that you think makes a winning Stanley Cup team, what would it be?" His answer? " You have to go injury free. That's a big big part of it. You need to have luck on your side".

He also talked about the tiny margins. "Round one is complete chaos. I look back at the times when, you know, we're in a 5OT game against Columbus, in round 1 game 1, and we just lost to them the year before. We don't score that goal, I don't know if we'd even get out of that round."

That's why nobody does what you're advocating for. The margins are small, and one year does not define the next.
What 5 decades of actual failure, do you forget when previous teams made it further than this group has in the playoffs?
Who cares? They still lost. Sure, I love an extra couple weeks of enjoying hockey, but we still failed the objective of the playoffs. You don't get a consolation prize. You don't get to carry over the series wins to next year. 1 team wins, and the rest is just noise that all gets wiped away. As Pastrnak said in the prime series, "it doesn't matter at the end, you know? If you don't get the cup, it doesn't matter who moves on from the first round".

We had decades of having garbage teams. Even the few better years sprinkled in came with a very limited chance at a cup. I'm not willing to throw away the best chance we've had in a half century because some people are impatient and don't understand the complexities of hockey and the impacting factors to winning a cup in a 32 team, heavy parity league.
I'm betting you were born in the 90s and didn't start paying attention to hockey until 2004+ based on that statement.
Nope.
I simply think continually paying a core of 3 players 40+% of the cap won't work going forward.
Not only have you provided zero reasoning or better alternative, but they won't even make 40+% of our cap in as little as like 1 year.
 
It's ALWAYS about the money to some extent, but both sides will cave to some degree and he will resign here. At the same time, Tavares' cap hit will likely be at least cut in half, so people can stop complaining about paying 4 guys 50% of the cap.
With deferred money I can see $5.5m for JT. With the 5.5m in saving and 4m cap increase (9.5m), they do not have enough cap to pay the current roster of players. They need $3m for Woll, 2.5m for McCable, $4+m for Knies, and $2m for Marner ($11.5+m). Last year they had Brodie and Bert money to play with. This year they will not have that luxury. They have virtually squeezed every last drop of blood from the stone in order to pay the 3 amigos.
 
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My understanding is that Nylander gave the Leafs a number in the summer and said, call me you are ready to meet it. Matty has always had a blank cheque.

How much more is he going to squeeze out of the Leafs if the Leafs are offering close to $13mx8 today as per the insider? Ferris is dilutional not accepting that today. He is willing to gamble that Marner does not flop again in the playoffs and can get how much more? He is not doing Marner any favours IMO.
Got to watch out for those rumors. We don't know for sure what he would sign for today or if any offer from the club is on the table. They don't have to offer more than they want to pay though. This is not a 1 star team that will collapse if they have to spend $13M somewhere else. I am good whatever happens.
 
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