Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[mclaren55]

I don't see Ranta getting to UFA but the Leafs might have a pretty good shot at Ek with Marners cap space. I am under the impression its him OR Bennett that FLA can afford to keep and they like Bennett more. It isn't worth stressing over under we know more. People are just posting fear or fantasy scenarios based on the click bait being chummed out there. Mitch is here till after the playoffs no matter what.

I don't see him hitting UFA either, neither will Marner. We will sign him, he is a great player, and we will stagnate. It's OK, one year I'm sure "luck" will be on our side and we will make it out of the second round. Just frustrating to see such intelligent people here arguing for the status-quo and not offer any insight into what they would do to elevate the team in the post season.

 

[Antropovsky]

I understand why you amplified that play. You think it exemplifies an issue, but the only issue is people thinking it's an issue. Marner doesn't avoid contact. When necessary, he takes hits to make plays, and engages physically himself. He just doesn't get crushed in bad positions for no reason, and doesn't generally default to using physicality to achieve goals that can be achieved through other equal or better options. And there's nothing wrong with that. Many great players won cups the same way. It's called playing to your strengths.

He has some of the best edgework and agility in the league, regular season and playoffs, and while everybody makes mistakes, he doesn't make an abnormal number of "poor plays". He is tasked with some of our most difficult situations and assignments in all game situations, and people don't seem to understand that he is our playmaker, and he is tasked with creating opportunities. People don't seem to understand that there is some inherent risk that goes hand in hand with generating opportunities, especially in the situations we have so often found ourselves in the playoffs - down early and having to push for offense against great teams getting world class goaltending. A well-supported attempt at chance generation with a reasonable level of risk not working out is often mistaken for a "poor play", but something not working out in that instance does not automatically make a play poor. Kucherov is an example of a player that has gotten many of the same criticisms, and yet many treat him like a playoff god. He's far from the only one.

Marner creates space for both himself and his teammates?

Nylander engages in contact even less than Marner, and is a worse player than Marner in the playoffs.

No I don't. I just look at the actual reasons and context behind the exits, and how big the discrepancy actually was, instead of making blind assertions based exclusively on series outcome, and mistaking any correlation for causation. Our losses are disappointing, but they have been wildly overblown by people giving in to emotion over facts and reason. In fact, emotion based decisions over the past two years have just set this team backwards, and you're still advocating for one that would likely put the final nail in the coffin. Change is not inherently good.

And while wins and losses are not just "luck", "luck" and things outside of our control do play a big part in hockey, especially in small samples. Anybody in the game will say the same thing. That's why process is often emphasized over outcomes. Ironically, during the intermission last night, they interviewed Cooper, and they asked him: "If you had to give just one formula that you think makes a winning Stanley Cup team, what would it be?" His answer? " You have to go injury free. That's a big big part of it. You need to have luck on your side".

He also talked about the tiny margins. "Round one is complete chaos. I look back at the times when, you know, we're in a 5OT game against Columbus, in round 1 game 1, and we just lost to them the year before. We don't score that goal, I don't know if we'd even get out of that round."

That's why nobody does what you're advocating for. The margins are small, and one year does not define the next.

Who cares? They still lost. Sure, I love an extra couple weeks of enjoying hockey, but we still failed the objective of the playoffs. You don't get a consolation prize. You don't get to carry over the series wins to next year. 1 team wins, and the rest is just noise that all gets wiped away. As Pastrnak said in the prime series, "it doesn't matter at the end, you know? If you don't get the cup, it doesn't matter who moves on from the first round".

We had decades of having garbage teams. Even the few better years sprinkled in came with a very limited chance at a cup. I'm not willing to throw away the best chance we've had in a half century because some people are impatient and don't understand the complexities of hockey and the impacting factors to winning a cup in a 32 team, heavy parity league.

Nope.

Not only have you provided zero reasoning or better alternative, but they won't even make 40+% of our cap in as little as like 1 year.

Marner creates space for himself and his teammates? Show us highlights of playoff Marner creating space for his teammates.

We can go one for one, I'll start. Remember Marner is the playmaker while Matthews is just a dumb sniper. Also, remember that Matthews, like Marner, apparently is soft and shrinks physically in playoffs.

Playoff Matthews setting up a 2 vs 1 by crushing a Tampa defender, falling to the ice and tipping the puck to Marner as he falls

 

[Hallonbroder]

He's not signing for less cap percentage. If it's 97 mil, then 13 mil is the same cap percentage as present. The good news is cap goes to 105 next year after as floated, it's already down to 12.4 as opposed to present 13.4. The added year is a factor that could make free agency slightest less attractive, again that's why I always see 13ish as a number and I'm fine with it, so long as the cap does rise we will be good. With JT off the books, I don't see how 3 big contracts can't work either.

Why shouldn’t he? He’s the hometown hero, playing for his favorite team ?

 

[ToneDog]

He's not signing for less cap percentage. If it's 97 mil, then 13 mil is the same cap percentage as present. The good news is cap goes to 105 next year after as floated, it's already down to 12.4 as opposed to present 13.4. The added year is a factor that could make free agency slightest less attractive, again that's why I always see 13ish as a number and I'm fine with it, so long as the cap does rise we will be good. With JT off the books, I don't see how 3 big contracts can't work either.

Where are you getting $97m? I've seen $92.5m possibly a bit higher.

The NHL's salary cap for the 2024-25 season is $88 million, which is a $4.5 million increase from the previous season. The league commissioner, Gary Bettman, has projected that the cap could increase to $92.4 million for the 2025-26 season.

The NHL salary cap is projected to be $92.4 million next season with the potential of it climbing slightly higher pending a possible negotiation between the League and NHL Players' Association, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said Tuesday. This season's salary cap is $88 million.

At the moment, the league’s cap is projected to rise to $92.5 million next season, from where it currently sits at $88 million, but there's some idea the PA and league may work towards a slightly higher jump, given what could happen after that campaign. Where the cap could go two years from now, in 2026-27, has raised eyebrows, as Friedman discussed on last week’s episode of the 32 Thoughts podcast.

 

[mclaren55]

Peak raw points isn't all that relevant, especially when it's so misleading. Over the past half-decade, Marner is 5th in the league in points and points per game, without the production advantages of many around him. 4th in 5v5 points per 60 and 6th in PP points per 60. Elite offensively and defensively while playing the toughest minutes in all game states and situations. Every player like that gets paid. And if you bothered to look beyond just exclusively raw surface production in comparison to select all-time play-off production leaders experiencing wildly different team situations, you'd realize he's pretty darn good in the playoffs too.

Show me the data set because I don't see that. Matthews is ahead of him from what I see in 5th, Marner is 6th. Regardless, this has been a discussion about his playoff performance and I know you can't fudge the metrics enough to justify it.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Lmao. Knew this would be brought up by somebody who thinks the only effective strategy is crash and bang. Marner cleared the puck past 2 Tampa players. Marner chased down the puck to allow his team to change PK units. Marner looked back and saw that he had a 50/50 foot race and a 1v2, so he cut off the pass option up the boards instead. This allowed him to avoid being caught deep and be in position to discourage the drop pass back on the breakout. The Tampa player had to pass back cross ice instead, and the harder pass was fumbled and they had to regroup again, wasting time.

Dekes may post like an automaton, but he's exactly right about this play. Marner did a great job altering their planned back pass and killing extra time.

Sure but nobody pays a player based on a cap projected beyond the current year. That is not good business. As discussed, I've heard $92.5m next year and you think it could rise to $95. Best to wait to see what the projected cap will be for next before thinking of signing a huge deal.

$13mx8=104m=$14.875x7. Nobody is going there for Marner. Not in a millions years.

It's the business of teams and agents to project the cap, and it's probably easier now that Covid escrow payments are over.

Why is eight years necessarily important? Marner could go the Matthews route and earn as much or more from short-term deals, and management may prefer a shorter deal to see if the current Matthews deal produces any playoff success. Much easier to move off the core in 2028 with Matthews and Marner both coming off the books around the same time. Rielly and Nylander would probably both be willing to leave during a rebuild in order to chase a Cup elsewhere.

Stamkos

He's almost 35.

 

[Apex Predator]

Our best chance at winning a cup in the last 40 years was in the 90's, and then again in the early 2000's. You'll probably disagree with me there as well. Luck factored into those series as well if you want to look at it like that.

I'm advocating for getting more depth and not being so top-heavy in our line-up. It could be any of the core 4 making 11+M that goes, just so happens that one is asking for a substantial raise based on regular season victories, so that's the one I suggested moving on from.

If you think re-signing the same guys that haven't gotten it done for almost a decade, on their third coach, are the ones to get it done then so be it. I don't, simple as that. Guess we will see what management does, and see what they do this playoffs. I hope Marner, Matthews, and Nylander can all turn it on this year and live up to their contracts. Having a career high of 99 points as a winger shouldn't get you a top 3-5 contract in the league, but that's just me.


Bennett+Ekblad+Rantanen. However I can't quantify what their contracts would be, maybe Dekes can run a model and see what kind of AAV they would be at to disprove this as an option.

That Covid year looked promising. They should have made it to the final 4.

 

[Aashir]

He's not signing for less cap percentage. If it's 97 mil, then 13 mil is the same cap percentage as present. The good news is cap goes to 105 next year after as floated, it's already down to 12.4 as opposed to present 13.4. The added year is a factor that could make free agency slightest less attractive, again that's why I always see 13ish as a number and I'm fine with it, so long as the cap does rise we will be good. With JT off the books, I don't see how 3 big contracts can't work either.

I could see the logic there, but then would it not just be shuffling deck chairs?

JT and Nylander swap cap hits, but save us on cap percentage

Matthews and Marner increase in cap percentage, which eats the savings of nylander and jt

Let’s just use: 13.25 + 13 + 11.5 + 6 =43.75/97 is 0.451 or 45% of the cap. Add in Rielly’s 7.5 and we are at 52.3%. Seems like the same as we have right now no?

I would be fine with that if it was a successful group to build around and if the group of 34,88,16,91,44 had potential to win. To me, they haven’t shown that yet

For over 13, I need a great playoff run from MM and we need to go deep (final 4 or more)

 

[nuck]

I don't see him hitting UFA either, neither will Marner. We will sign him, he is a great player, and we will stagnate. It's OK, one year I'm sure "luck" will be on our side and we will make it out of the second round. Just frustrating to see such intelligent people here arguing for the status-quo and not offer any insight into what they would do to elevate the team in the post season.

Hope springs eternal. Its hard to hear a voice for change when the club is 3rd overall and crushing old foes. I blamed Keefe for the last couple years and I am sticking with that until at least April.

 

[ToneDog]

I don't see him hitting UFA either, neither will Marner. We will sign him, he is a great player, and we will stagnate. It's OK, one year I'm sure "luck" will be on our side and we will make it out of the second round. Just frustrating to see such intelligent people here arguing for the status-quo and not offer any insight into what they would do to elevate the team in the post season.

I would call some of them having an agenda. I ask myself why one certain fan pumps Marner's tires every day without fail, yet does not feel the need to so for other players. Hmmmm.

The better question is why do the dummies at the cash box insist on status-quo? I mean, they say they are not here to sell jersey and every employee told the golf pro that they all want to win. Yet here we are 57 years without a Cup. Go figure.

 

[keonsbitterness]

The Click Here for Updates deal at the top of the page is a road to nowhere. Where is my update?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not true, and even less so in the playoffs. So far this season Willy has taken 33 hits to Mitch's 29, in appreciabley less ice time. Last playoffs, in under 87 minutes, Willy delivered 5 hits and took 8. Mitch, in over 148 minutes, delivered 6 and took 12.

No mention of Nylander's grand total of 5 hits this year? Hmm.

Over the past 3 years, Marner leads Nylander 139 to 55 in hits, and 230 to 229 in hits taken. Over the past 3 playoffs, Marner leads Nylander 34 to 12 in hits, and 45 to 35 in hits taken. And that's not even counting how much more Marner engages in board work and physical situations outside of hits.

But you also missed the bigger point of it doesn't matter anyway. If they're able to be effective, which specific playstyles they have or specific tools they utilize to do it isn't all that important.

 

[Antropovsky]

Dekes may post like an automaton, but he's exactly right about this play. Marner did a great job altering their planned back pass and killing extra time.

It's the business of teams and agents to project the cap, and it's probably easier now that Covid escrow payments are over.

Why is eight years necessarily important? Marner could go the Matthews route and earn as much or more from short-term deals, and management may prefer a shorter deal to see if the current Matthews deal produces any playoff success. Much easier to move off the core in 2028 with Matthews and Marner both coming off the books around the same time. Rielly and Nylander would probably both be willing to leave during a rebuild in order to chase a Cup elsewhere.

He's almost 35.

Tavares is 7 months younger than Stamkos.

Stamkos left Tampa for more money last year...he was their Captain and draft by Tampa and certainly wanted to stay in Tampa.

People are silly to think that Tavares won't leave for a better contract if he needs to. He might take a pay cut for Toronto, but it won't be substantial.

 

[mclaren55]

No mention of Nylander's grand total of 5 hits this year? Hmm.

Over the past 3 years, Marner leads Nylander 139 to 55 in hits, and 230 to 229 in hits taken. Over the past 3 playoffs, Marner leads Nylander 34 to 12 in hits, and 45 to 35 in hits taken. And that's not even counting how much more Marner engages in board work and physical situations outside of hits.

But you also missed the bigger point of it doesn't matter anyway. If they're able to be effective, which specific playstyles they have or specific tools they utilize to do it isn't all that important.

Ok I can understand that point; what is your measure of playoff effectiveness?

 

[Evilhomer]

Fair enough; I agree with most of your assessment. I believe we should let both JT (unless he signs a 3 year 15m contract) and Marner go (whether that's a trade at the deadline, or saying bye via UFA) and replace them with players who have performed in the post season. Bennett and Raantanen are both guys like that, as is Ekblad. So with the 25-30M in free cap space we move on from the guys that haven't gotten it done for us and try a new team composition. With that much cap we can probably sign all three plus another complimentary 3rd liner F/2nd line D. That's four players potentially who all have better playoff numbers than regular season numbers. Meaning they all excel in the playoffs compared to our current group, and I think that would be a huge factor for us going deeper in the playoffs.

I have been vocal about wanting Tavares gone no matter how cheap he may sign.

 

[keonsbitterness]

The better question is why do the dummies at the cash box insist on status-quo? I mean, they say they are not here to sell jersey and every employee told the golf pro that they all want to win. Yet here we are 57 years without a Cup. Go figure.

A subscriber renewal rate of over 99% every year means they can absorb almost anything, even fans throwing waffles every 10-20 years. This forum definitely doesn't reflect the views of season ticketholders.

Tavares is 7 months younger than Stamkos.

Stamkos left Tampa for more money last year...he was their Captain and draft by Tampa and certainly wanted to stay in Tampa.

People are silly to think that Tavares won't leave for a better contract if he needs to. He might take a pay cut for Toronto, but it won't be substantial.

Sorry, thought you were comparing Marner.

No idea what JT would do if offered more elsewhere, but the Leafs have leverage with him and should use it.

 

[Antropovsky]

A subscriber renewal rate of over 99% every year means they can absorb almost anything, even fans throwing waffles every 10-20 years. This forum definitely doesn't reflect the views of season ticketholders.

Sorry, thought you were comparing Marner.

No idea what JT would do if offered more elsewhere, but the Leafs have leverage with him and should use it.

They have as much leverage on Tavares as they do Marner.

 

[ACC1224]

I don't see him hitting UFA either, neither will Marner. We will sign him, he is a great player, and we will stagnate. It's OK, one year I'm sure "luck" will be on our side and we will make it out of the second round. Just frustrating to see such intelligent people here arguing for the status-quo and not offer any insight into what they would do to elevate the team in the post season.

Shouldn’t an argument for ‘status quo’ be in a team discussion thread ?
Is it really ‘intelligent’ when the only focus daily is one player? Maybe some should challenge themselves and come up with a different ‘insight’?

A subscriber renewal rate of over 99% every year means they can absorb almost anything, even fans throwing waffles every 10-20 years. This forum definitely doesn't reflect the views of season ticketholders.

Sorry, thought you were comparing Marner.

No idea what JT would do if offered more elsewhere, but the Leafs have leverage with him and should use it.

Tavares will be in the Stamkos situation. If he wants to stay he’ll take what they give him, if he wants more they’ll let him walk.
Marner on the other hand has the edge in leverage.

 

[Gary Nylund]

A subscriber renewal rate of over 99% every year means they can absorb almost anything, even fans throwing waffles every 10-20 years. This forum definitely doesn't reflect the views of season ticketholders.

Sorry, thought you were comparing Marner.

No idea what JT would do if offered more elsewhere, but the Leafs have leverage with him and should use it.

This is so true, and is why I expect Marner to be resigned.

I was talking to a friend just recently about how Marner's production plummets after 86 games. This was news to him and he really didn't care too much. It seemed like he just didn't feel like spending the energy on thinking about it too much and Marner's fun to watch in the regular season, end of story.

I suspect that attitude applies to the majority of fanbase - Marner's fun to watch, they don't realize how badly he drops off in the playoffs, therefore signing him is 100% normal and will not affect profits.

Shouldn’t an argument for ‘status quo’ be in a team discussion thread ?
Is it really ‘intelligent’ when the only focus daily is one player? Maybe some should challenge themselves and come up with a different ‘insight’?

You're the one who should challenge yourself. It shouldn't be too hard to figure out that:

1 - this is a Marner thread
2 - the rest of the core is already locked up long term

 

[mclaren55]

Shouldn’t an argument for ‘status quo’ be in a team discussion thread ?
Is it really ‘intelligent’ when the only focus daily is one player? Maybe some should challenge themselves and come up with a different ‘insight’?

That could be argued, sorry if I derailed the discussion, I thought it was applicable to this case.

I think Dekes, Francis, etc., are intelligent individuals. They bring up solid points a lot of the time, even if I disagree with how they apply the data, or look at the overall situation. This is a forum for discourse about a team and the players on it, that's what we are doing. What "insights" do you deem worthy? Kind of condescending statement you made there.

I've made plenty of points over the years about the team and its players. It has also evolved over the years in part thanks to the discussions that take place here. If you're tired of it may I suggest not clicking on the thread?

 

[ACC1224]

That could be argued, sorry if I derailed the discussion, I thought it was applicable to this case.

I think Dekes, Francis, etc., are intelligent individuals. They bring up solid points a lot of the time, even if I disagree with how they apply the data, or look at the overall situation. This is a forum for discourse about a team and the players on it, that's what we are doing. What "insights" do you deem worthy? Kind of condescending statement you made there.

I've made plenty of points over the years about the team and its players. It has also evolved over the years in part thanks to the discussions that take place here. If you're tired of it may I suggest not clicking on the thread?

....the threads about the Player though, not the fans hope for the direction of the Team.

I used 'insight' because that's what you were asking for in your original post, were you being 'condescending'?

 

[mclaren55]

....the threads about the Player though, not the fans hope for the direction of the Team.

I used 'insight' because that's what you were asking for in your original post, were you being 'condescending'?

No, I was being literal, and I had hoped they would provide insights into what they would do. Not sure how that can be misconstrued as condescending; explain.

I wasn't being sarcastic in my original post at all, I always try to argue in good faith. Not sure how anyone can think otherwise given what I've posted here. It's a discussion about a player that is going to be our second highest paid forward, and that players performance in the post season. That has a direct effect on the team as a whole, which is what I'm arguing here. Seems fairly applicable to the thread from my perspective. If it isn't, report me to a moderator and ask for the posts to be moved/deleted.

 

[Antropovsky]

This is so true, and is why I expect Marner to be resigned.

I was talking to a friend just recently about how Marner's production plummets after 6 games. This was news to him and he really didn't care too much. It seemed like he just didn't feel like spending the energy on thinking about it too much and Marner's fun to watch in the regular season, end of story.

I suspect that attitude applies to the majority of fanbase - Marner's fun to watch, they don't realize how badly he drops off in the playoffs, therefore signing him is 100% normal and will not affect profits.


You're the one who should challenge yourself. It shouldn't be too hard to figure out that:

1 - this is a Marner thread
2 - the rest of the core is already locked up long term

ACC created the Marner appreciation thread, where posters were only allowed to support Marner or not post at all.

Interestingly, he doesn’t mind excessive posts from others in this thread when they align with supporting Marner and he actively shows support by liking every single one. Ironically, he also excessively posts in this thread himself.

If he doesnt like the discussion here, perhaps consider a different thread or even starting a Facebook page dedicated to appreciating Marner.? Because what he wants in this thread isn’t in line with the HFBoards way.

Here’s the About Us section from the bottom of the HFBoards website, which clearly emphasizes “unbiased, critical discussion”:

"Our community has been around for many years and prides itself on offering unbiased, critical discussion among people of all different backgrounds. We are working every day to make sure our community is one of the best."

 

[Gabriel426]

I don't see him hitting UFA either, neither will Marner. We will sign him, he is a great player, and we will stagnate. It's OK, one year I'm sure "luck" will be on our side and we will make it out of the second round. Just frustrating to see such intelligent people here arguing for the status-quo and not offer any insight into what they would do to elevate the team in the post season.

We do but often get shuts down with he is staying, or you are dreaming player X will sign with the Leafs….

Depends of the playoffs. If it is another 1st round exit, you really need to look at what to do and weight on options.

There is also the McD watch, in the slim chance that he won’t sign his extension, you need to make room for him. On the other hand if he does sign, you use that as ref point for the new deal with MM.

 

[ACC1224]

No, I was being literal, and I had hoped they would provide insights into what they would do. Not sure how that can be misconstrued as condescending; explain.

I wasn't being sarcastic in my original post at all, I always try to argue in good faith. Not sure how anyone can think otherwise given what I've posted here. It's a discussion about a player that is going to be our second highest paid forward, and that players performance in the post season. That has a direct effect on the team as a whole, which is what I'm arguing here. Seems fairly applicable to the thread from my perspective. If it isn't, report me to a moderator and ask for the posts to be moved/deleted.

Yes, thoughts on the player are applicable to the thread.
Were you not asking for thoughts on what others would like the team to do ?
That doesn't seem applicable to the player discussion but rather a team discussion.

Anyway, he's having a great season to date.
For some reason there are those that hate to see it.

I'm done my last call for the day, going for a pint. Cheers.