Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[ACC1224]

 

[mclaren55]

You always keep your best talent, because over an extended period of time the odds are that talent will perform better than mediocrity. That will be the same scenario here. This team hasn't won in the past several years because it didn't have the right lineup and/or there were other teams in the division/conference that were better in that moment. I think we have now reached a point with this lineup where all of those things have changed.

The Leafs did keep their best talent, they re-signed Matthews. Lots of organizations moved on from "top talent" to get into a better position to win by addressing the needs of the organization. If you look at the structure of teams who have won the cup over the last two decades, including dynasties, they don't have half of their cap in 3 players. No team has won with that structure. If those three get shut down, and you don't have the depth to replace their scoring, you get bounced. We've seen that take place over the better part of a decade.

What has changed so significantly to you that you believe we are on the cusp of moving past the first and second round?

 

[Hallonbroder]

Yup. Fair is fair.

Giving this kid another long term deal before the playoffs would be conclusive proof that playoff success is not a priority for this organization, simple as that.

Marner kills it for 86 games, then the games tighten up, get more physical and Marner becomes ineffective. The people wanting him signed now are one of two things:

1 - they also don't care about playoff success
2 - they have forgotten how different playoff Marner is from regular season Marner

How is it possible that people see the same movie over and over and over again, yet forget what they've seen? It's like Groundhog Day in real life.

I think we can all agree that Marner has shown that he can translate this regular season play to the playoffs. Right? I mean, we don’t have any data or video on his previous performances that can tell us otherwise.

His 10,9-deal was all for this season. Those years was him learning how to earn money. Now he’s going to get around 15m and he totally deserves it. Leafs has to sign him and try the same thing for another 4 years!

 

[DarkKnight]

IMO nobody is paying him $104+m year other than the Leafs. Let him go to free agency and find out. Johnny Hockey (RIP) found that out and he was coming off a 115 point season and had a 99 point season under his belt. Paying few players all the money has not worked and is almost guaranteed not to work with this group of players. Sorry, none are McDavid, MacKinnon, Draisaitl or Kutcherov and should not be paid as such.

I think your assumption is wrong, lots of teams will suddenly have lots of room if the cap goes to 97 and projected beyond next season. There will be plenty of GM's dying to land him. I could see 14 on open market.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Even last night during a PK he cleared the puck, chased it, was ahead of the defender in the offensive zone, and curled back to avoid contact.

Lmao. Knew this would be brought up by somebody who thinks the only effective strategy is crash and bang. Marner cleared the puck past 2 Tampa players. Marner chased down the puck to allow his team to change PK units. Marner looked back and saw that he had a 50/50 foot race and a 1v2, so he cut off the pass option up the boards instead. This allowed him to avoid being caught deep and be in position to discourage the drop pass back on the breakout. The Tampa player had to pass back cross ice instead, and the harder pass was fumbled and they had to regroup again, wasting time.

To reiterate, amazing player, but not one you spend that much cap on.

He's exactly the kind of player you spend that much cap on.

 

[mclaren55]

View attachment 964638

And? No one is saying he isn't great in the regular season here... He is also playing for a contract, and we've all seen how most players have career years during a contract year.

We can't afford to keep doing this if we want to get further into the playoffs. I have 9 years of history on my side, you have hope on yours.

 

[arso40]

I think your assumption is wrong, lots of teams will suddenly have lots of room if the cap goes to 97 and projected beyond next season. There will be plenty of GM's dying to land him. I could see 14 on open market.

I’d let him go for 14

 

[Evilhomer]

What has changed so significantly to you that you believe we are on the cusp of moving past the first and second round?

Better coach, better goaltending, better defense, and a lower quality of competition in the division and conference.

 

[mclaren55]

Lmao. Knew this would be brought up by somebody who thinks the only effective strategy is crash and bang. Marner cleared the puck past 2 Tampa players. Marner chased down the puck to allow his team to change PK units. Marner looked back and saw that he had a 50/50 foot race and a 1v2, so he cut off the pass option up the boards instead. This allowed him to avoid being caught deep and be in position to discourage the drop pass back on the breakout. The Tampa player had to pass back cross ice instead, and the harder pass was fumbled and they had to regroup again.

He's exactly the kind of player you spend that much cap on.

Good explanation, and I'll take your word for it. I didn't see it as a 1v2, but maybe it was. To characterize me as someone who thinks the only strategy is crash and bang is asinine. You seem to try to slander posters who disagree with you though, so all in a days work I guess. You've also defended the contracts since day 1, and we have yet to see the fruits of that labour. What makes you want to continue with this group after almost a decade of failure?

 

[DarkKnight]

I’d let him go for 14

So would I, just saying we're kidding ourselves if we think he can't fetch that in free agency. I think 13 is where it lands here.

 

[Nineteen67]

True but if they do not get past Florida in year 9, are there any excuses left and is it enough proof that they cannot win with this core making all the money? Save your money and soft tamper with McDavid. He should be about ready to return home soon.

If they’re competitive in the second round and Marner, Matthews and Nylander are engaged and play well that’s good enough for me. Winning would be the best case but it’s more about performance.

If they’re pushed out of the series once again, then you make changes.

 

[mclaren55]

Better coach, better goaltending, better defense, and a lower quality of competition in the division and conference.

The only statement I think that is quantifiable there is the weakness in our division, I don't think the conference is much weaker. Our offensive output is also significantly weaker this year, but you want to sign an offensive winger to 13M, OK.

 

[DarkKnight]

The only statement I think that is quantifiable there is the weakness in our division, I don't think the conference is much weaker.

Top end lower, bottom end more competitive, it's a wash.

 

[Gary Nylund]

View attachment 964638

Games 1-4: 37 pts in 31 gp (98 point pace)

Games 5-7: 8 pts in 17 gp (39 point pace)

 

[ACC1224]

And? No one is saying he isn't great in the regular season here... He is also playing for a contract, and we've all seen how most players have career years during a contract year.

We can't afford to keep doing this if we want to get further into the playoffs. I have 9 years of history on my side, you have hope on yours.

Even if he is just playing for a contract wouldn't that speak to his talent that he could just turn it on like that and lead the team by almost 20 points?
Wouldn't the concern then be why are those with less points not trying as hard?

IMO, it's fair to not like the cap distribution. The question is who it's distributed to many feel you keep the best players.

 

[ToneDog]

I think your assumption is wrong, lots of teams will suddenly have lots of room if the cap goes to 97 and projected beyond next season. There will be plenty of GM's dying to land him. I could see 14 on open market.

Sure but nobody pays a player based on a cap projected beyond the current year. That is not good business. As discussed, I've heard $92.5m next year and you think it could rise to $95. Best to wait to see what the projected cap will be for next before thinking of signing a huge deal.

$13mx8=104m=$14.875x7. Nobody is going there for Marner. Not in a millions years.

 

[mclaren55]

Even if he is just playing for a contract wouldn't that speak to his talent that he could just turn it on like that and lead the team by almost 20 points?
Wouldn't the concern then be why are those with less points not trying as hard?

IMO, it's fair to not like the cap distribution. The question is who it's distributed to many feel you keep the best players.

It would concern me more that money is his key motivation for "trying".

 

[Gary Nylund]

You’re giving Leafs management too much credit. They’re signing both, before the playoffs and get fleeced - 9 m per for Tavares and 15 mil per for Mitch. And then rinse and repeat etc etc

I also think that's the most likely scenario - both signed before playoffs. The numbers probably/hopefully won't be quite that high, but they'll still be too much.

Pretty sick how Nylander killed it in his contract year (at least until he was signed), now Marner and JT are doing the same thing. Then again, IIRC Matthews sucked in his contract year and was still paid as if he killed it so maybe it doesn't matter. All you have to do to get paid top dollar, is to have the good fortune to play for the Toronto Make Believes.

 

[leafs in five]

I agree with user Antropovsky that (at least) 90% of NHL players are able to do things like make a pass to a teammate and shoot the puck on net from the point

 

[Dekes For Days]

Good explanation, and I'll take your word for it. I didn't see it as a 1v2, but maybe it was. To characterize me as someone who thinks the only strategy is crash and bang is asinine.

What am I supposed to think when you're dumping on one of the best players in the game last night because he didn't crash and bang on a play? While advocating walking away from him because he's not a crash and bang player?

You've also defended the contracts since day 1, and we have yet to see the fruits of that labour.

I have defended the contracts since day 1, and I was 100% correct. We have seen tons of fruits. They became some of the best players in the world, like I predicted, and they justified and outperformed their contracts.

What makes you want to continue with this group after almost a decade of failure?

The context of what that "failure" looked like, why it happened, and not wanting another 5 decades of ACTUAL failure. You don't sabotage the future because you didn't achieve the ultimate goal you wanted through an extremely abnormal and disadvantageous past.

 

[ACC1224]

It would concern me more that money is his key motivation for "trying".

By why is the focus on just one? Why aren't the others trying as hard now?

** IMO, he plays just as hard two ways as he always has.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Even if he is just playing for a contract wouldn't that speak to his talent that he could just turn it on like that and lead the team by almost 20 points?
Wouldn't the concern then be why are those with less points not trying as hard?

IMO, it's fair to not like the cap distribution. The question is who it's distributed to many feel you keep the best players.

And what does it speak to that he turns it off after 86 games and plays like a wuss while his team gets eliminated from the playoffs? That he prefers playing golf to playing physical, playoff hockey?

I think we can all agree that he has talent. If only they gave prizes for that ...

 

[ToneDog]

It would concern me more that money is his key motivation for "trying".

We saw that in spades for 39 games last season.

 

[mclaren55]

By why is the focus on just one? Why aren't the others trying as hard now?

** IMO, he plays just as hard two ways as he always has.

Nylander is second in the Rocket race, so he is earning it while playing with lesser players. Matthews was injured for 15 games this year, so he gets a pass right now. JT hasn't been worth his contract since it was signed; I was one of the only people who didn't like the signing from the start and thought it was a waste of cap.

I'm holding them all accountable.

 

[ToneDog]

And what does it speak to that he turns it off after 86 games and plays like a wuss while his team gets eliminated from the playoffs? That he prefers playing golf to playing physical, playoff hockey?

I think we can all agree that he has talent. If only they gave prizes for that ...

They do. It is called the Molson Cup.