Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Hallonbroder]

Lmao. Knew this would be brought up by somebody who thinks the only effective strategy is crash and bang. Marner cleared the puck past 2 Tampa players. Marner chased down the puck to allow his team to change PK units. Marner looked back and saw that he had a 50/50 foot race and a 1v2, so he cut off the pass option up the boards instead. This allowed him to avoid being caught deep and be in position to discourage the drop pass back on the breakout. The Tampa player had to pass back cross ice instead, and the harder pass was fumbled and they had to regroup again, wasting time.

He's exactly the kind of player you spend that much cap on.

Bingo - it’s been a great success for the Leafs thus far!

If they’re competitive in the second round and Marner, Matthews and Nylander are engaged and play well that’s good enough for me. Winning would be the best case but it’s more about performance.

If they’re pushed out of the series once again, then you make changes.

Agreed. As they say “a cat has 9 lives”!

 

[Metroid]

He played 2 really really good periods last night. Dominate at both ends.
But as he scored the 5th goal he looked like he was pouting, not showing joy. Was he pissed at being hit really hard just previous, was he disappointed in team mates for not coming to defend him. Does daddy instruct him to show the team he is not happy and not a Leaf for life.

Stop projecting
This is a you thing.

 

[mclaren55]

What am I supposed to think when you're dumping on one of the best players in the game last night because he didn't crash and bang on a play? While advocating walking away from him because he's not a crash and bang player?

I have defended the contracts since day 1, and I was 100% correct. We have seen tons of fruits. They became some of the best players in the world, like I predicted, and they justified and outperformed their contracts.

The context of what that "failure" looked like, why it happened, and not wanting another 5 decades of ACTUAL failure. You don't sabotage the future because you didn't achieve the ultimate goal you wanted through an extremely abnormal and disadvantageous past.

You misunderstood why I amplified that play. He avoids contact (look at tape from any playoff series outside of his first year or two), relies on edge work that he can't duplicate when there is much less space, and gets pressured to make poor plays. It's happened time after time with plenty of examples of it, especially in elimination games. He either doesn't have the mental fortitude for it, or can't adapt his game; take your pick. I don't want players who "crash and bang", I want players that can create space for themselves in the NHL playoffs, especially in elimination games. He evaporates. Stop using extremely narrow definitions of the player spectrum. I wouldn't classify Nylander as a "crash and bang" player, yet he somehow adapts his game in the playoffs and takes contact to make plays, same with Matthews.

You explain away every playoff exit as "bad luck", which is insane. We must be the unluckiest franchise in all of sports I guess, no one should be held accountable. What 5 decades of actual failure, do you forget when previous teams made it further than this group has in the playoffs? I'm betting you were born in the 90s and didn't start paying attention to hockey until 2004+ based on that statement.

Dekes, you get too emotionally invested in these debates. I simply think continually paying a core of 3 players 40+% of the cap won't work going forward. I think Marner is an amazing player and immensely skilled, just not what we need to get it done come crunch time.

 

[Hallonbroder]

By why is the focus on just one? Why aren't the others trying as hard now?

** IMO, he plays just as hard two ways as he always has.

…because they’re not up for a new contract? That must be the answer, but you’re the brains here.

With his play right now, Marner is showing that he can play playoff hockey vs others in the regular season, it must transfer to the real thing!

What am I supposed to think when you're dumping on one of the best players in the game last night because he didn't crash and bang on a play? While advocating walking away from him because he's not a crash and bang player?

I have defended the contracts since day 1, and I was 100% correct. We have seen tons of fruits. They became some of the best players in the world, like I predicted, and they justified and outperformed their contracts.

The context of what that "failure" looked like, why it happened, and not wanting another 5 decades of ACTUAL failure. You don't sabotage the future because you didn't achieve the ultimate goal you wanted through an extremely abnormal and disadvantageous past.

They totally justified and outperformed their contracts. Who cares about the playoffs - they don’t get money for playing that!!!

 

[francis246]

Not the greatest analogy but I'll play along. What would you do if your best lawyer won 1 case of his last 9 and was looking for a 20% increase? Most would fold the law firm unless they were the only law firm in town.

That’s an Apple to oranges comparison and it’s not the same thing. Lawyers don’t have a regular reason that is also factored into the equation.

 

[Hallonbroder]

Nylander is second in the Rocket race, so he is earning it while playing with lesser players. Matthews was injured for 15 games this year, so he gets a pass right now. JT hasn't been worth his contract since it was signed; I was one of the only people who didn't like the signing from the start and thought it was a waste of cap.

I'm holding them all accountable.

Hey now. Don’t bring up Nylander in a Marner-thread. His previous seasons (at 6,9 m) should be judged exactly like all of Marners (at 10,9). Marner really brings that much more on the ice and off it. Especially in the playoffs

 

[francis246]

Sure but nobody pays a player based on a cap projected beyond the current year. That is not good business. As discussed, I've heard $92.5m next year and you think it could rise to $95. Best to wait to see what the projected cap will be for next before thinking of signing a huge deal.

$13mx8=104m=$14.875x7. Nobody is going there for Marner. Not in a millions years.

False, most teams are building their teams based on cap projections in the future. That’s how they base almost all their decisions. No one is building their teams for next year based on this years budget or cap. All these teams have the best of the best capologists who determine what the roster can look like based on a number of different cap projections. (IE this is what our roster / cap space will look like with a 92 mill cap or a 95 mill cap or a 97 mill cap or 100 mill cap). Pridham would have multiple spread sheets (or whatever program he uses) outlining what the roster would look like and/or cap space available is based on multiple cap projections and within the next 1,2,3,4,5+ years. This isn’t 1982. The tech available to them is incredible.

The leafs have a very good idea of what their cap situation is. Not sure why people think they understand the cap better than the managers. They have a number they aren’t going to broach with Mitch. It’s most likely 13 or 12.5. But they have a walk away number.

 

[ACC1224]

Nylander is second in the Rocket race, so he is earning it while playing with lesser players. Matthews was injured for 15 games this year, so he gets a pass right now. JT hasn't been worth his contract since it was signed; I was one of the only people who didn't like the signing from the start and thought it was a waste of cap.

I'm holding them all accountable.

It certainly doesn't seem that way.
That's really all anyone wants is that they are all held to the same standard.
Reading some of the stuff here and you know that's not the case.

 

[francis246]

I still have a weird feeling he ends up in Vegas.

I wanted that deal in the summer because I hate losing a player for nothing.

If the cap is going to be 97 million next year. 14% used to be the standard but seems to be lowering to 13%

That’s 12.61. Ok maybe worst case 12.93.

But I don’t see why we wouldn’t just to deferred money.

In year 7 or something just give him his bonus July 1 of year 9.

The cap is finally going up like we wanted it too. The core 4 model works with jumps. Which we didn’t get last time.

I’m convinced he’s going to Colorado imo. I think Marner walks tbh, we will probably lose him for nothing. The longer it goes on the more I feel he walks. Feels a lot like JT’s last year on the Island and Stamkos with Tampa Bay last year.

 

[mclaren55]

It certainly doesn't seem that way.

We are in a Marner thread, so I'm talking about Marner. Never wanted JT on the team, didn't want them to pay 13.5 to Matthews, thought it was an overpay for Nylander (he did outperform his original contract without exception), etc.

Why is everyone so emotionally involved in players? I love this TEAM, whoever can help us win in the post season is all I care about. I'm not going to sit here and justify some of the highest contracts in the league for players that haven't done much in the post season (like Dekes does). That seems self explanatory. I guess at the end of the day we have to wait and see if they get it done this year, just like the 8 years prior.

I'm not dumping on Marner as Dekes suggested; I'm trying to point out that he seems to become less effective when time and space is at a premium. I believe its counterproductive to re-sign him for a mega contract based on that. Simple as that.

Either we are the unluckiest team to exist, or the composition of this team isn't right. Take your pick.

 

[Evilhomer]

Law firms don't have cap constraints. I also didn't say "replace players", I said replace *a* player, singular. Nice try though.

Trust me, law firms have far worse than cap constraints.

 

[francis246]

IMO nobody is paying him $104+m year other than the Leafs. Let him go to free agency and find out. Johnny Hockey (RIP) found that out and he was coming off a 115 point season and had a 99 point season under his belt. Paying few players all the money has not worked and is almost guaranteed not to work with this group of players. Sorry, none are McDavid, MacKinnon, Draisaitl or Kutcherov and should not be paid as such.

Johnny (RIP) didn’t leave Calgary because of money. Johnny (God bless his soul), spoke about this on SC. He was open to staying in Calgary. Brad Treliving took way too long to offer him a contract and the longer it took the more he thought about leaving. He was willing to sign an extension. Then when they did offer him it was a lowball and that was the nail in the coffin.

Then he and his wife decided they wanted to be closer to home, he said it was tough for his family to fly out west. They wanted to watch him play more frequently and he wanted to be closer to his parents for the kids. Johnny still got paid a premium. 9.5 is a pretty penny. It’s still one of the richest free agent contracts in the cap era.

 

[mclaren55]

Trust me, law firms have far worse than cap constraints.

Either way your analogy is not applicable.

 

[ACC1224]

MSN - link to blog/article/propaganda/whatever you want to call it

I'm sure some will have issue with this but most fans will find some of this interesting.
He's certainly in pretty good company.

Last week, Mitch Marner became the fastest Maple Leafs player in franchise history to reach 700 points, accomplishing the feat in 622 games.

Comparing Marner’s pace​

Marner’s 700-point pace will be a short-lived record, but that should not overshadow how impressive he has been in his career. He shattered the previous Leafs record held by Darryl Sittler, who took 666 games to get 700 points. Marner not only took fewer games to get there, but he is also two years younger than Sittler was when he reached 700.
Having the record within the Maple Leafs franchise is praiseworthy enough, but it becomes more impressive if you look at his points pace versus other players around the NHL. For comparison, I looked at current players–to avoid the different era, different style argument–with over 700 points. Here are some examples:

• Nikita Kucherov: 700 points in 621 games
• David Pastrnak: 700 points in 652 games
• Nathan MacKinnon:700 points in 673 games
• Patrick Kane & Steven Stamkos: 700 points in 696 games
• Mikko Rantanen: currently at 680 points through 617 games

• Ultimately, Marner’s career totals will depend on his longevity. At age 27, he may just be entering the prime of his career. Given his age and health, there is little reason to doubt he will maintain or exceed his current level of play. At his current points pace, he would hit 1,000 points in game 886. For reference, Alex Ovechkin hit 1,000 points in game 880. Patrick Kane took 953 games to get there, and Stamkos was just a hair quicker at 945 games.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Johnny (RIP) didn’t leave Calgary because of money. Johnny (God bless his soul), spoke about this on SC. He was open to staying in Calgary. Brad Treliving took way too long to offer him a contract and the longer it took the more he thought about leaving. He was willing to sign an extension. Then when they did offer him it was a lowball and that was the nail in the coffin.

Then he and his wife decided they wanted to be closer to home, he said it was tough for his family to fly out west. They wanted to watch him play more frequently and he wanted to be closer to his parents for the kids. Johnny still got paid a premium. 9.5 is a pretty penny. It’s still one of the richest free agent contracts in the cap era.

Let's hope Marner signs for that 9.5 pretty penny, then I do believe we'll all be happy. Unless of course he falls flat on his face again in the playoffs, then all bets are off, at least until November.

 

[ToneDog]

Yup. Fair is fair.

Giving this kid another long term deal before the playoffs would be conclusive proof that playoff success is not a priority for this organization, simple as that.

Marner kills it for 86 games, then the games tighten up, get more physical and Marner becomes ineffective. The people wanting him signed now are one of two things:

1 - they also don't care about playoff success
2 - they have forgotten how different playoff Marner is from regular season Marner

How is it possible that people see the same movie over and over and over again, yet forget what they've seen? It's like Groundhog Day in real life.

I keep watching Titanic hoping Jack survives and they live happily ever after. Unfortunately for Leafs fans, unlike the same movie, we cannot FF to the playoffs.

 

[Evilhomer]

Either way your analogy is not applicable.

Okay, let's go with your proposal of letting him walk, regardless of results this season. Who are you planning to replace him with? Brock Nelson makes $6.5 million (or something like that). Do you want 2 Brock Nelsons? Or how about a Brock Nelson and a Tyler Bertuzzi? Do you honestly believe doing that makes the Leafs a better team?

 

[Legion34]

I’m convinced he’s going to Colorado imo. I think Marner walks tbh, we will probably lose him for nothing. The longer it goes on the more I feel he walks. Feels a lot like JT’s last year on the Island and Stamkos with Tampa Bay last year.

I don’t see how he could go to Colorado with them not wanting to pay rants 12.5

Vegas has the no tax and needs a star winger.

Petro/theo/hague/whitecloud/hanafin
On D

Eichel/hertl/karlson as centres.

Their wingers suck outside of stone.

he could be their missing piece and they have 18 million in space if it’s a 97 cap.

 

[Antropovsky]

And really it's the core 3 after this year. JT is getting a massive haircut and you can squeeze him for the friendly deal, given his age and not wanting to move. The cap finally rising hard makes this a no brainer for me anyways.

Stamkos didn't want to move on from Tampa either.

 

[ToneDog]

Johnny (RIP) didn’t leave Calgary because of money. Johnny (God bless his soul), spoke about this on SC. He was open to staying in Calgary. Brad Treliving took way too long to offer him a contract and the longer it took the more he thought about leaving. He was willing to sign an extension. Then when they did offer him it was a lowball and that was the nail in the coffin.

Then he and his wife decided they wanted to be closer to home, he said it was tough for his family to fly out west. They wanted to watch him play more frequently and he wanted to be closer to his parents for the kids. Johnny still got paid a premium. 9.5 is a pretty penny. It’s still one of the richest free agent contracts in the cap era.

My understanding is that at the end of the day he settled for less money from Columbus ($9.75mx7) than what the Flames offered ($10+mx8). If there was a lowball offer, I am guessing it was part of negotiations. Love to find what Mitch would get/accept on the open market.

 

[Antropovsky]

Okay, let's go with your proposal of letting him walk, regardless of results this season. Who are you planning to replace him with? Brock Nelson makes $6.5 million (or something like that). Do you want 2 Brock Nelsons? Or how about a Brock Nelson and a Tyler Bertuzzi? Do you honestly believe doing that makes the Leafs a better team?

This in 2026.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I love how the narrative has shifted the past several months from how horrible Marner is and he must be traded immediately.. to sure he’s playing well in the regular season but the playoffs.. and now it is he’s a great player but we can’t afford him… lol

You guys are almost to acceptance and then we can finally move forward.

Marner is one of the best players in the world, he is having a fantastic year, he’s gonna get paid, and 99.9% that is going to be by Toronto.

 

[thusk]

Yep, a pretty straightforward NHL pass. Playmaker extraordinaire Jake McCabe made a more challenging pass the other day, picture below. He knocked this clearing attempt out of mid air and sent a cross ice pass in a split second.

The real work on the Knies goal today, was by Knies, and Matthews

Matthews has been driving 90% of his lines goals since he got back.


View attachment 964564

Vs

View attachment 964565

Anyway for you every Goal Marner included is because of every else than marner, nothing news...

He's just having like 18 points over closest leafs player, Basically 2X more pts than Matthews... But all this is because of Matthews and the player hr' playing with, that's make sense for sure.

The difference between a mccabe or even a domi or whatever who you want and a Marner. McCabe will be able to do that play like once every 10 attemp and Marner will do it once every 2 attempt. That's the difference. Player are in NHL for a reason, they are skilled player or they would not be there... so yes basically every player can make those kind of play at time, the difference is the consistency

 

[ToneDog]

I love how the narrative has shifted the past several months from how horrible Marner is and he must be traded immediately.. to sure he’s playing well in the regular season but the playoffs.. and now it is he’s a great player but we can’t afford him… lol

You guys are almost to acceptance and then we can finally move forward.

Marner is one of the best players in the world, he is having a fantastic year, he’s gonna get paid, and 99.9% that is going to be by Toronto.

Leafs fans know he is a top player but given the lack of playoff success and being tired of the same old rerun, they said trade him (not give him away) since they locked into 34 and 88 and because you cannot let such an asset walk for nothing. Fast forward to January, they are clearly not trading him so if the rumour is true that he is asking for Draisaitl money, I say see you.

How many more playoff failures do you need to see before you agree, this core will never win a SC? Truth is they should have acted after losing to the Habs, instead they doubled and tripled down on them.

 

[Antropovsky]

I love how the narrative has shifted the past several months from how horrible Marner is and he must be traded immediately.. to sure he’s playing well in the regular season but the playoffs.. and now it is he’s a great player but we can’t afford him… lol

You guys are almost to acceptance and then we can finally move forward.

Marner is one of the best players in the world, he is having a fantastic year, he’s gonna get paid, and 99.9% that is going to be by Toronto.

Lol.. 5v5 he had 6 points in 14 games while Matthews was injured. Which is around a 200th place NHL finish over the course of a year. He has 8 points in 9 games since Matthews came back. Just a coincidence right? .

Players actually score more vs the opponent without Marner on their line:

2025
Tavares with and without Marner
With:244mins without:458 mins
Gf% With Marner 50%
Gf% Without Marner 55%

Knies with and without Marner
With:400 mins without: 340 mins
Gf% with Marner 49%
Gf% Without Marner 54.17%

Matthews with and without Marner (small sample size)
With:419 mins Away: 110 mins
Gf% with Marner 54%
Gf% Without Marner 50%

2023 & 2024
Matthews with and without Marner;
With:1385 mins Away: 830 mins
Gf% with Marner 58%
Gf% Without Marner 65%