Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Lightsol]

Doing what twice?

Showing up for half a series and then disappearing. Did it against both Montreal and Tampa.

Let's not even talk about only two of the "Big Four" actually showing up for the entire Boston series... If they learned anything, it was that all you have to do to avoid criticism is not play half the series!

 

[Gabriel426]

You're missing Nylander's horrid defense but as long as you're disappointed in the core it's all good.

It's 2% of the game. We don't know what his responsibilities are. What about the other 98%?

And again. Why haven't his multiple professional coaches reduced his ice time in the playoffs, especially in critical moments after all of these supposed failures?
What parts of the game are YOU missing that they aren't? .

Willie too.
The whole core is rotten and honestly, should be traded away piece by piece ever since the Habs series.
Look at Vegas and what they accomplished since they got into the league. They had more success than the Leafs in the same time span and pretty much 90% of teams in the NHL.

I really don’t understand why Leafnation is so married to the core. They are great players and probably great people but they choke and are just a whole bunch of Betas being paid and played as Alphas.

Also, don’t want to say who cares about the 98% of the game but the game is determined by 2% of the game. If you are great in that 2%, it makes you a hero, superstar, and most likely Winner.
You can be crap on defense and opposing team scores 5 goals while you are on the ICE but if you can score 7 goals, nobody would give a damn about those 5 goals.
There is a reason why the Norris is awarded to the Dman who usually gets the most points. Gary is awarded to the highest scoring FWD or Dman and once a while a goalie. There is Rocket and Art Ross awarded to highest scoring player and there is Selke who awarded to best Defensive forward but most often or not that defensive forward can also put up goals and points.

 

[Gabriel426]

Showing up for half a series and then disappearing. Did it against both Montreal and Tampa.

Let's not even talk about only two of the "Big Four" actually showing up for the entire Boston series... If they learned anything, it was that all you have to do to avoid criticism is not play half the series!

That’s the reality though, if you only scored 3 goals in a 7 games series and while those 3 goals were also the only THREE goals for your team in Game 6 and 7, plus leading the team in GOAL scoring in that series. That’s amount to a lot.

Just like Tkachuk was like scoring a goal here and there in the playoffs but those goals were either GWG or GTG in the last mins or even an OT goal. Nobody talk about him being underwhelming or not scoring goals bc he scored when it mattered most.

 

[666]

Willie too.
The whole core is rotten and honestly, should be traded away piece by piece ever since the Habs series.
Look at Vegas and what they accomplished since they got into the league. They had more success than the Leafs in the same time span and pretty much 90% of teams in the NHL.

I really don’t understand why Leafnation is so married to the core. They are great players and probably great people but they choke and are just a whole bunch of Betas being paid and played as Alphas.

Also, don’t want to say who cares about the 98% of the game but the game is determined by 2% of the game. If you are great in that 2%, it makes you a hero, superstar, and most likely Winner.
You can be crap on defense and opposing team scores 5 goals while you are on the ICE but if you can score 7 goals, nobody would give a damn about those 5 goals.
There is a reason why the Norris is awarded to the Dman who usually gets the most points. Gary is awarded to the highest scoring FWD or Dman and once a while a goalie. There is Rocket and Art Ross awarded to highest scoring player and there is Selke who awarded to best Defensive forward but most often or not that defensive forward can also put up goals and points.

How many goals have Marner and Matthews prevented? We don't know. What are their coaches instructing them to do? Nylander gets more goals than Marner but he's on the ice for more against. It's a pretty big discussion to have to as to why the core and the team in general doesn't get it done but this is the Marner thread and at least you recognize that all of them haven't gotten it done.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Edit: The answer is coaching. Both sides.

Your turn. Why haven't his multiple professional coaches reduced his ice time in the playoffs, especially in critical moments after all of these supposed failures?
What parts of the game are YOU missing that they aren't? .

Coaching, sure thing.

Why do other top players keep scoring in the playoffs? Why would coaching not be a factor with guys like Rantanen, Draisaitl, Kucherov and so on? Are opposing coaches fine with those guys scoring against their teams but not Marner, what's the reasoning here? And coaching "both sides", WTF? Why would Keefe tell Marner to stop producing offence after 86 games. No offence but you're not making any sense here.

That "answer" is either not a serious answer, or it's just ridiculous. Either way, I think we can agree to disagree and since we see things completely differently, my answers would be of no value to you. But what the hell, I'm feeling generous so I will answer.

Multiple coaches - this is wrong. The pattern of Marner going AWOL after 86 games wasn't established under Babcock so he doesn't count. As far as Keefe goes, you'd have to ask him but a part of it is probably that he didn't have many better options. Matthews, Marner and JT, all of them have had their production drop off so who's he supposed to turn to? Marner turns into a 40 point player, not a 0 point player so he's still going to get ice. Plus when he's so productive during the season and makes all that money, Keefe probably hoped he'd snap out of it eventually, which isn't unreasonable, especially given the lack of alternatives. Keefe also makes mistakes, one of his biggest mistakes was not playing Nylander enough when we needed offence. When were up by a goal in the 3rd, sure play Marner but when we desperately need a goal he should have been playing Nylander more. Of course that's just my guessing as to his thought process, if you really want to know then you'd have to ask the coaches now wouldn't you?

You're the one who's missing things, not me. Go rewatch the FLA playoff series, Marner was terrible for the first 3 games, then he woke up and started playing when we were down 3-0 and the season was as good as over. When you've done that, rewatch the Boston series. If you're honest with yourself and understand even a little bit about the game of hockey, you'll see that "the other 98%" was nowhere near as good as you think. Yes he's a good all round player most of the time, but not always and when his production goes into the tank after 86 games, the rest of the game often goes with it.

Showing up for half a series and then disappearing. Did it against both Montreal and Tampa.

Let's not even talk about only two of the "Big Four" actually showing up for the entire Boston series... If they learned anything, it was that all you have to do to avoid criticism is not play half the series!

LOL, sure thing bud.

 

[Gabriel426]

How many goals have Marner and Matthews prevented? We don't know. What are their coaches instructing them to do? Nylander gets more goals than Marner but he's on the ice for more against. It's a pretty big discussion to have to as to why the core and the team in general doesn't get it done but this is the Marner thread and at least you recognize that all of them haven't gotten it done.

It is a fact that all of them can’t get it done.

 

[ToneDog]

I'm all for riling up the Marner PR crew but you really can't be having Reinhart ahead of Marner, that's just not accurate.

For Selke too? Brandon Hagel? Come on now.

All bullshit aside the season Marner is having should easily have him in the Hart conversation.

Yeah I questioned Reinhart and Werenski. One can argue for Reinhart because he is a goal scorer and I believe leads the league in SHG. Werenski has been good but this is the first time I've seen him mentioned in the Hart conversation.

I was surprised at the Selke list. Maybe many Leafs fans overrate Marner defensively so I'll defer to the Athletic.

 

[666]

Matthews, Marner and JT, all of them have had their production drop off so who's he supposed to turn to?

Finally. It is all of them (including Nylander). Good to hear you say it. Why do you not post this much in the Matthews thread?

Keefe also makes mistakes, one of his biggest mistakes was not playing Nylander enough when we needed offence. When were up by a goal in the 3rd, sure play Marner but when we desperately need a goal he should have been playing Nylander more.

Perfect answer. So it is the coaches and you think that you know better than them. That's really funny, but even better I can tell you why the coaches don't do what you think that they should do, and that's because with Nylander on the ice the other team is MUCH more likely to score.

And there you have it. All questions answered. Years of debate finished.

I'm good, but I'm sure that you have more to say so you may have the last word.

 

[DarkKnight]

Yeah I questioned Reinhart and Werenski. One can argue for Reinhart because he is a goal scorer and I believe leads the league in SHG. Werenski has been good but this is the first time I've seen him mentioned in the Hart conversation.

I was surprised at the Selke list. Maybe many Leafs fans overrate Marner defensively so I'll defer to the Athletic.

He finished third for the Selke 2023, so it isn’t Leafs fans living in fantasy land on that score. Coach seems to play him like our best defensive forward too, so I’ll defer to him over some analytic nerd.

 

[GoonieFace]

Finally. It is all of them (including Nylander). Good to hear you say it. Why do you not post this much in the Matthews thread?

Perfect answer. So it is the coaches and you think that you know better than them. That's really funny, but even better I can tell you why the coaches don't do what you think that they should do, and that's because with Nylander on the ice the other team is MUCH more likely to score.

And there you have it. All questions answered. Years of debate finished.

I'm good, but I'm sure that you have more to say so you may have the last word.

Pinning defence, good or bad, on one player, while 5 are on the ice, is certainly an interesting look at it

 

[ToneDog]

The only successful playoff run is a cup, so no, they weren't. Also, players don't have records. Teams have records. And contracts for individual players are not based on their team's playoff series record. If you're upset with the team's playoff series record, that sounds like a reason to get better, not a reason to get worse by losing one of the best players in the league.

Stopped reading after the bolded because it is not true. By your logic, it follows that there is also no successful season unless you win the SC which is also not true.

 

[666]

Pinning defence, good or bad, on one player, while 5 are on the ice, is certainly an interesting look at it

He's that bad. I've posted the "advanced stats" in the past.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Finally. It is all of them (including Nylander). Good to hear you say it. Why do you not post this much in the Matthews thread?

I have mentioned the others many times, if you haven't noticed that's on you. And Nylander's way down the list, JT and Marner are the biggest playoff underperformers. Nylander actually produces at roughly the same rate in the playoffs so deflecting to him (again) is just weird. I think your bias is showing.

The rest isn't really irrelevant but since you asked, maybe take a look in the mirror and ask yourself this - why do you not post this much in the Matthews thread?

Perfect answer. So it is the coaches and you think that you know better than them. That's really funny, but even better I can tell you why the coaches don't do what you think that they should do, and that's because with Nylander on the ice the other team is MUCH more likely to score.

And as I said, that makes sense when we're leading in the 3rd period but when we're losing in the 3rd and desperately need to score, it's a different story. What do you think the coaches are telling Marner when we're down 3-1 in the 3rd period of game 7, is it something like this?

"remember now, the priority is not give up another goal. Lose 3-1 is OK, just make sure they don't score again"?

I don't think you've thought this one through, maybe you want to try again?

You also didn't explain how coaching is responsible for Marner's dropoff after 86 games, did you miss that question? Here it is again.

Why do other top players keep scoring in the playoffs? Why would coaching not be a factor with guys like Rantanen, Draisaitl, Kucherov and so on? Are opposing coaches fine with those guys scoring against their teams but not Marner, what's the reasoning here? And coaching "both sides", WTF? Why would Keefe tell Marner to stop producing offence after 86 games. No offence but you're not making any sense here.

And there you have it. All questions answered. Years of debate finished.

I'm good, but I'm sure that you have more to say so you may have the last word.

If you're satisfied with your last answer which makes no sense, and are OK with leaving the coaching nonsense unexplained, I'm good.

He finished third for the Selke 2023, so it isn’t Leafs fans living in fantasy land on that score. Coach seems to play him like our best defensive forward too, so I’ll defer to him over some analytic nerd.

IMO Matthews is our most valuable defensive forward because he covers the best players in the league, Marner's job is much easier. But 2nd best, best, what does it matter? The Selke is given to the best in the league, not the best on the Leafs.

Pinning defence, good or bad, on one player, while 5 are on the ice, is certainly an interesting look at it

Yup. As I'm fond of saying - that's one way of looking at it.

 

[Racer88]

But what about the other 98%? For example how many goals against did he prevent? Don't they count for anything?

And again. Why haven't his multiple professional coaches reduced his ice time in the playoffs, especially in critical moments after all of these supposed failures?
What parts of the game are YOU missing that they aren't? .

Apparently they didn’t prevent enough goals from being scored on us……….because we lost

 

[666]

The rest isn't really irrelevant but since you asked, maybe take a look in the mirror and ask yourself this - why do you not post this much in the Matthews thread?

I said that you could have the last word BUT you did ask me another question.

I'm fascinated by this question. How could you possibly not know the answer? I have read the 86 games things on here hundreds of times in the last few years. It's been replied to by many many many people so many times, yet constantly gets repeated. Probably a dozen times this week already. And let's be clear, I spend very little time on this site. I see at most 5% of anyone's posts. I don't recall ever seeing this sort of thing in the Matthews thread (even though everyone agrees he's had the same issues in the playoffs) but I don't spend much time there because he's a superstar and pretty well everyone agrees. We don't have the repetition and constant barrage of blatant misuse of stats over there. Basically everyone loves Matthews even though he hasn't gotten it done either.

So the simple answer is that I've never noticed a cabal of Matthews haters that need to be corrected. Matthews and Marner are both superstars and will go down as the top 2 Leafs all time and first ballot HOFers if they stay and stay healthy.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Stopped reading after the bolded because it is not true.

The only objective of a playoff run is to win the cup. Nobody loses in the playoffs and goes "well that was a successful playoff run". The only reason we glorify series wins is because we haven't gotten them. As Pastrnak side in the Prime series, "it doesn't matter at the end, you know? If you don't get the cup, it doesn't matter who moves on from the first round".

 

[Gary Nylund]

I said that you could have the last word BUT you did ask me another question.

I'm fascinated by this question. How could you possibly not know the answer? I have read the 86 games things on here hundreds of times in the last few years. It's been replied to by many many many people so many times, yet constantly gets repeated. Probably a dozen times this week already. And let's be clear, I spend very little time on this site. I see at most 5% of anyone's posts. I don't recall ever seeing this sort of thing in the Matthews thread (even though everyone agrees he's had the same issues in the playoffs) but I don't spend much time there because he's a superstar and pretty well everyone agrees. We don't have the repetition and constant barrage of blatant misuse of stats over there. Basically everyone loves Matthews even though he hasn't gotten it done either.

So the simple answer is that I've never noticed a cabal of Matthews haters that need to be corrected. Matthews and Marner are both superstars and will go down as the top 2 Leafs all time and first ballot HOFers if they stay and stay healthy.

The only reason I asked was that it's not relevant (has nothing to do with Marner) and since you asked me, I punted it back to you. You wrote such a long answer to this irrelevant subject that you brought up, why don't you answer the things you left unexplained? In case you've forgotten, here they are again, copy/paste, here we go:

1)
And as I said, that makes sense when we're leading in the 3rd period but when we're losing in the 3rd and desperately need to score, it's a different story. What do you think the coaches are telling Marner when we're down 3-1 in the 3rd period of game 7, is it something like this?

"remember now, the priority is not give up another goal. Lose 3-1 is OK, just make sure they don't score again"?

I don't think you've thought this one through, maybe you want to try again?

2)
Why do other top players keep scoring in the playoffs? Why would coaching not be a factor with guys like Rantanen, Draisaitl, Kucherov and so on? Are opposing coaches fine with those guys scoring against their teams but not Marner, what's the reasoning here? And coaching "both sides", WTF? Why would Keefe tell Marner to stop producing offence after 86 games. No offence but you're not making any sense here.

 

[666]

why don't you answer the things you left unexplained?

Sorry man, I've got all the answers I need and if mine aren't obvious by now then they never will.

Since you're still replying I will add one small thing that should have been obvious but it apparently wasn't.

I should have said:
"I can tell you why the coaches don't do what you think that they should do, and that's because with Nylander on the ice the other team is MUCH more likely to score because the other teams top guys are going to be playing a lot, that's what MnM do and Nylander doesn't"

I doubt I'll be bugging you much in the future unless you keep posting the 86 game thing.

 

[Antropovsky]

You're missing Nylander's horrid defense but as long as you're disappointed in the core it's all good.

It's 2% of the game. We don't know what his responsibilities are. What about the other 98%?

And again. Why haven't his multiple professional coaches reduced his ice time in the playoffs, especially in critical moments after all of these supposed failures?
What parts of the game are YOU missing that they aren't? .

According to research by Carolina's Harvad grad GM, your teammates, especially most common linemates, will impact your results more than how your coach tends to line match you.

5v5 stats:

Here is Marner vs Nylander 2025

Nylander Minutes:
With Matthews: 176
With Tavares: 439
Total: 615
Team while Nylander is on ice:
On ice GF: 31
On ice GA: 25
Gf%: 55

Since Matthews return: 2 gf 4 ga

So before Matthews return:
Nylander line
Gf: 29
Ga: 21
Gf%58
‐------------------------------------
Marner mins:
With Matthews: 471
With Tavares : 344
Total: 815

Team while Marner is on ice 5v5:
On ice GF: 34
On ice GA: 24
Gf%58

Since Matthews return: 6gf 0ga

Marner on ice before Marners return:
Gf:29
Ga: 28
Gf%53

So Nylander has 32% less mins than Marner with Matthews and Tavares (primarily Matthews)

before Matthews return his line vs opponents lines has scored 5% higher clip than Marners.

Looking at just stats, Nylanders goal differential is better than Marners despite having significantly less mins with talented linemates.

So what's this your saying about Nylanders defense? Nylanders line outscores the opponent more than Marners.

 

[666]

According to research by Carolina's Harvad grad GM, your teammates, especially most common linemates, will impact your results more than how your coach tends to line match you.

Here is Marner vs Nylander thus far

Nylander
On ice GF: 31
On ice GA: 25
Gf%: 55

Since Matthews return: 2 gf 4 ga

With Matthews: 176
With Tavares: 439
Total: 615

Marner mins:
On ice GF: 34
On ice GA: 24
Gf%58

Since Matthews return: 6gf 0ga

With Matthews: 471
With Tavares : 344
Total: 815

So before Matthews return:
Nylander line
Gf: 29
Ga: 21
Gf%58

Marners line
Gf:29
Ga: 28
Gf%53

So Nylander has 32% less mins than Marner with Matthews and Tavares (primarily Matthews) but before Matthews return his line vs opponents lines has scored 5% higher clip than Marners. All the while getting signifcant time with lesser linemates.

Looking at just stats, Nylanders goal differential is better than Marners.

So what's this your saying about Nylanders defense?

Not again?
Small samples. When are you going to learn.
Missing context especially match ups, linemates, competition and usage.
At least you made a comparison to someone this time, but it's all still meaningless.

 

[Hellcat]

He looks absolutely fantastic, can he keep it up through a deep playoff run is the question. I had these same thoughts 2 years ago - he's looking better than ever and I remember saying I'm confident that his playoff struggles are behind him. He was great for the first 4 games and then disappeared, as usual. So many people have said that his game is simply not suited for playoff hockey, I hope they're wrong but after all these years I can't say that I'm very optimistic in regard. I made the mistake two years ago of believing his playoff issues are behind him and I'm not falling for it again. I'm hoping he can win me over again but this time around, I need to see it before believing.

On the surface that sounds not too bad, however ... the 18 games over the last two playoffs go something like this:

The first 4 games against TB - 9 points.
The next 14 games - 8 points.

I can't be bothered to look up the details now but I believe that's accurate and if you look at 2022, I believe it's similar. He's great for the first few games, the he drops off a cliff and considering how poorly he's performed in the last 2 series we played, it's fair to say that while he's trending well in the regular season, in the playoffs he's trending down.

There's plenty of blame to go around and our playoff failures aren't all on any one person. If I were to make a list though, JT and Marner would occupy the top two slots.

I think you are correct where in games 5 through 7 he performs at a lower rate, which I would expect as Leafs rarely had home ice, the other team could put their best checkers out against our best players. In the end most coaches will say you need to find a way, no matter who is checking you. I dont disagree but I'm not surprised that his numbers drop in the last 3 games in any series.

 

[Hellcat]

But what about the other 98%? For example how many goals against did he prevent? Don't they count for anything?

And again. Why haven't his multiple professional coaches reduced his ice time in the playoffs, especially in critical moments after all of these supposed failures?
What parts of the game are YOU missing that they aren't? .

Didn't Lemaire once say that a certain player is a 50 goal guy, and the reporter asked puzzled but he only scores 20 a year and Lemaire responded yeah but he prevents 30. I might have the quote wrong but the sentiment remains the same.

 

[ACC1224]

I think you are correct where in games 5 through 7 he performs at a lower rate, which I would expect as Leafs rarely had home ice, the other team could put their best checkers out against our best players. In the end most coaches will say you need to find a way, no matter who is checking you. I dont disagree but I'm not surprised that his numbers drop in the last 3 games in any series.

Wouldn't Matthews have similar numbers since they play together?

 

[Hellcat]

Wouldn't Matthews have similar numbers since they play together?

I think he is worse than Mitch.

 

[ACC1224]

I think he is worse than Mitch.

If he is you'd never know it.