Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[ToneDog]

Exactly Tavares had a monster 2014-15 and one could argue his 2013-14 was even better and had it not been for him destroying himself at the Olympics he probably would have had similar production.

Pretty sure he was on pace to be top 3 in scoring behind Crosby. Who was world class that year. But Kessel finished top 10 in scoring in 2013-14.

Yes, Tavares had a monster 2014-15 but he did not put up those numbers prior to signing here. He was still a stud and other than his cap hit, I was glad he signed here. Disappointed he was not enough to get us over the hump and that the 3 amigos used his cap hit to take Dubas to the woodshed.

 

[Antropovsky]

No one? A google search brings up 3 articles... someone is talking about it...

Mitch Marner Working His Way into Hart Trophy Conversation

Toronto Maple Leafs Mitch Marner is having the best season of his career and should be a Hart Trophy nominee by year's end. Is there a more underappreciated sup

editorinleaf.com

Maple Leafs’ Marner Deserving of Hart Trophy Consideration - The Hockey Writers Latest News, Analysis & More

Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner has been outstanding this season, and is deserving of being in the Hart Trophy conversation.

thehockeywriters.com

NHL Awards Watch: The MVP race tightens up -- and adds more contenders

At the midway mark of the 2024-25 season, are some awards already sewn up? We checked in with a panel of PHWA voters to check the temperature.

www.espn.com

Two leaf fan blogs and a espn article discussing votes they received in December? Yea very credible. The ESPN one polled a random selection of writers and Marner received just one measely writers vote. Which is meaningless... "Marner received a first-place vote for holding down the fort while Auston Matthews was out with an injury.

Check out the main board Hart discussion, no knowledgeable ubiased fans mentions Marner in the Hart conversarion up to page 5, I havent looked since.

 

[Antropovsky]

Yes, Tavares had a monster 2014-15 but he did not put up those numbers prior to signing here. He was still a stud and other than his cap hit, I was glad he signed here. Disappointed he was not enough to get us over the hump and that the 3 amigos used his cap hit to take Dubas to the woodshed.

13.84% of the cap as a 28 year old #1 center, as a UFA taking a 7 year contract (losing the 8th) is a generous deal by Tavares.

Draisaitl just signed for 15.9%
Mackinnon just signed for 15.1%

 

[Dekes For Days]

Again, I was happy they signed Tavares but was disappointed at the number. As for him taking a discount, the rumour was the Sharks offered $13m and Lou $11mx8. JT did take less money from the Leafs ($77m vs the $88m Lou offered). Don't let facts get in the way.

Yes, Tavares did take a discount. That's a fact that I've been reminding you of for a while. And while you may have also made a couple posts in 2017 saying that you wanted 10m, you were still really happy at 11m, and called 11m a discount at the time, so it certainly didn't seem to be "$10m max or go elsewhere" like you claimed. What's most odd is that you can acknowledge that Tavares was offered 13m in 2018, and you were happy with 11m (and acknowledged it as a discount for a premier UFA), and yet 13m for a superior Marner in 2025 is somehow an unfathomable offer and unacceptable.

 

[DarkKnight]

If the cap goes up next year as floated, 13 mil breaks down to a similar cap percentage that he currently has on this deal. Then assume the next year, going to 103-105M as many insiders now speculate , it looks pretty reasonable. And yes, sure a meteor can strike the earth, stalling growth, but agents and GM’s are dealing in probabilities. This doesn’t speak to whether to sign him now or after the playoffs, just percentages.

 

[ACC1224]

Funny just turned the tv on and it happened to be on TSN and Mike Johnson was talking about Marners phenomenal season and how he’ll be in the Hart conversation, he won’t win it but will be around top 5-10 in votes.
Seems a reasonable take from a knowledgeable person in the game.

 

[DarkKnight]

Funny just turned the tv on and it happened to be on TSN and Mike Johnson was talking about Marners phenomenal season and how he’ll be in the Hart conversation, he won’t win it but will be around top 5-10 in votes.
Seems a reasonable take from a knowledgeable person in the game.

He’s eighth in the odds to win it right now.

 

[Gabriel426]

In terms of signing MM and JT now instead of after the playoffs.

If Leafs make a run, all is good.
But what if it is another first round exit?

Would it be easier for the Leafs to retool with 22mil cap space from letting MM and JT walk.
Cap space is not just for UFA signings but also for trading.

 

[ToneDog]

If the cap goes up next year as floated, 13 mil breaks down to a similar cap percentage that he currently has on this deal. Then assume the next year, going to 103-105M as many insiders now speculate , it looks pretty reasonable. And yes, sure a meteor can strike the earth, stalling growth, but agents and GM’s are dealing in probabilities. This doesn’t speak to whether to sign him now or after the playoffs, just percentages.

I might be wrong so please correct me if that is the case.

Puckpedia has Marner @ 13.37% on his current deal. With a projected $92m cap, the same cap % would put him at $12.3m (not the best IMO but acceptable given Leafs are willing to pay him).

At Willies' cap % of 13.07 and a $92m cap it puts him @ $12.02m (more than acceptable and he comes across as taking a discount).

With a $92m cap, $13m is a cap % 14,1%. Too rich for me and he comes across greedy given his performance over the last 2 playoff series and the success of the team. Why does he deserve an increase from 13.37 to 14.1 precent when he never lived up to his last contract?

 

[ACC1224]

He’s eighth in the odds to win it right now.

What does the main board have him listed as?

 

[ToneDog]

What does the main board have him listed as?

Where was Willie a year ago? Where was he after 82 games?

 

[DarkKnight]

I might be wrong so please correct me if that is the case.

Puckpedia has Marner @ 13.37% on his current deal. With a projected $92m cap, the same cap % would put him at $12.3m (not the best IMO but acceptable given Leafs are willing to pay him).

At Willies' cap % of 13.07 and a $92m cap it puts him @ $12.02m (more than acceptable and he comes across as taking a discount).

With a $92m cap, $13m is a cap % 14,1%. Too rich for me and he comes across greedy given his performance over the last 2 playoff series and the success of the team. Why does he deserve an increase from 13.37 to 14.1 precent when he never lived up to his last contract?

I’m assuming the cap is 95-97 as people like Friedman are reporting is on the table.

 

[ToneDog]

I’m assuming the cap is 95-97 as people like Friedman are reporting is on the table.

I heard $92m next year. I'm not paying players based on a cap two years into the future. Some are saying that the delays for teams signing their stars is due to teams waiting to find out what the next cap will be. If you are correct and it is, 95-97m, then $13m is more easier to swallow.

 

[DarkKnight]

I heard $92m next year. I'm not paying players based on a cap two years into the future.

No, that’s what I’m assuming for next year. It’s up to the PA, and indications suggest it will go up to 95-97. Some are saying as high as 110 in two years if we go to 50/50 again.

Suspect part of the negotiation is waiting to see where the cap does end up going next year.

 

[DarkKnight]

Here’s Friedman anyways:

“The salary cap for the current season is $88 million. With the current CBA's salary cap structure, the 2025-2026 cap would be $92.5 million. If both sides agree to raising it a little more, the provision within the current CBA would allow them to do it. Friedman believes a solid compromise as the two sides go into CBA negotiations in 2026, will be to raise the cap for 2025-2026 to somewhere around the $95-97 million.

"Unless something really goes off the rails," he said. "I think we're gonna see a $95 to $97 cap this year, as long as the CBA gets done as part of it.

 

[francis246]

Yes, Tavares did take a discount. That's a fact that I've been reminding you of for a while. And while you may have also made a couple posts in 2017 saying that you wanted 10m, you were still really happy at 11m, and called 11m a discount at the time, so it certainly didn't seem to be "$10m max or go elsewhere" like you claimed. What's most odd is that you can acknowledge that Tavares was offered 13m in 2018, and you were happy with 11m (and acknowledged it as a discount for a premier UFA), and yet 13m for a superior Marner in 2025 is somehow an unfathomable offer and unacceptable.

The fact that we are worried about paying a top end player 13m in 2025 when Tavares was offered 13m in 2018 is really insane and pretty criminal by the owners. The NHLPA should be ashamed. Fans should not be afraid of or even losing sleep over a 12 or 13m cap hit for their top players in 2025.

 

[ToneDog]

The fact that we are worried about paying a top end player 13m in 2025 when Tavares was offered 13m in 2018 is really insane and pretty criminal by the owners. The NHLPA should be ashamed. Fans should not be afraid of or even losing sleep over a 12 or 13m cap hit for their top players in 2025.

Even if those players were 1 and 8 in the playoffs? Hell, the Sharks with Marleau and Thornton were more successful in the playoffs. Think about that for a minute.

 

[Aashir]

Most people already know that Marner is a better player than Rantanen. Just trying to help the rest along. Sorry you don't like the facts.

There’s like 5 people who believe that, didn’t know that meant most

He doesn't need to be nor is it important that he is or isn't.

At least we aren't hearing the 'Nylander's better' comments any longer.

Don’t really see what that has to do with my comments.

 

[francis246]

Even if those players were 1 and 8 in the playoffs? Hell, the Sharks with Marleau and Thornton were more successful in the playoffs. Think about that for a minute.

The point is, as a fan, I should not give a shit about the salary cap. My team drafted 3 studs, I want the team to keep them for as long as possible point blank period. If I want the team to move off them it’s because they are not working together or we haven’t had success. Not because we can’t afford them. Only in the NHL does that problem exist.

 

[Stephen]

Funny just turned the tv on and it happened to be on TSN and Mike Johnson was talking about Marners phenomenal season and how he’ll be in the Hart conversation, he won’t win it but will be around top 5-10 in votes.
Seems a reasonable take from a knowledgeable person in the game.

Marner's had a great year and his shooting tendency without Matthews has been a nice round out to his game, playing with jump, buzz and whatever. The team is rolling. There's nothing stopping him from putting his foot on the gas and really getting into the conversation for MVP in the second half, smash the 100 point mark, etc etc.

But historically, 5th-10th place in a Hart Trophy isn't really "a thing" but a more like handful of down ballot votes.

 

[DarkKnight]

Marner's had a great year and his shooting tendency without Matthews has been a nice round out to his game, playing with jump, buzz and whatever. The team is rolling. There's nothing stopping him from putting his foot on the gas and really getting into the conversation for MVP in the second half, smash the 100 point mark, etc etc.

But historically, 5th-10th place in a Hart Trophy isn't really "a thing" but a more like handful of down ballot votes.

View attachment 957820

The fact he's even mentioned is the point, no reason to diminish it. It speaks to his contribution this year, in the conversation, on the periphery.

 

[Mr_Fun]

After a brutal 1st, Mitch picked it up in the 2nd and 3rd at least. Sterling on the PK which was huge in a close game. I wonder where he sits in the Selke right about now?

 

[Stephen]

The fact he's even mentioned is the point, no reason to diminish it. It speaks to his contribution this year, in the conversation, on the periphery.

All I’m saying is 5th-10th in the Hart race typically isn’t a thing.

 

[Zybalto]

Non PK/Empty net goals/points this year:

Marner: 12 goals, 51 points in around 750 minutes.
MacKinnon: 11 goals, 54 points in around 880 minutes.
Rantanen: 17 goals, 45 points in around 850 minutes.

Marner is also top 10 in the NHL for PK icetime for forwards on a top 10 NHL PK.

WIth Matthews back up to speed (and Drai + McDavid lurking in the background), Marner is absolutely in the Hart+Art Ross race ATM.

 

[francis246]

After a brutal 1st, Mitch picked it up in the 2nd and 3rd at least. Sterling on the PK which was huge in a close game. I wonder where he sits in the Selke right about now?

Diving play on the PP to break up that 2 on 1 was clutch. He did follow it up with a pizza up the middle of his own lmao, but he was sound defensively tonight.

Loved the double screen by him and Knies. It’s what Berube has been preaching. Two bodies, two bodies in front of the net