Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Hallonbroder]

Some people on this board seem to love the player more than the team. It's strange to see people arguing to pay a player more money and ignore legitimate flaws.

We know but it's a vast minority doing that.

I do find that baffling… I’ve seen people saying that he should be paid more than Nylander for example, but he was, for years, with nothing to show for it really.

In my optionen, which doesn’t mean a lot, they should wait handing out a contract until after the playoffs. Like, isn’t it Cup or Bust for Toronto? Haven’t you waited enough? Do some really think it’s worth throwing 12-14 at someone, keeping the same core, if you don’t win?…

 

[BraveCanadian]

I have not contributed to this topic before and some of the discourse is quite special.

My hot take: I would doubt wether resigning Marner at his current salary is a good idea. The rising salary cap should be used to make the team deeper and better, not pay the same guys who have not won anything more money because of 'percentage of the cap'.

The ship has already sailed on that one.. Matthew$ and Nylander ate up the latest increase so we’re waiting for JT’s crazy number to come off the books to make some space now.

 

[DarkKnight]

162 point pace with Holmberg. You do the math.

 

[Leafsfan74]

I do find that baffling… I’ve seen people saying that he should be paid more than Nylander for example, but he was, for years, with nothing to show for it really.

In my optionen, which doesn’t mean a lot, they should wait handing out a contract until after the playoffs. Like, isn’t it Cup or Bust for Toronto? Haven’t you waited enough? Do some really think it’s worth throwing 12-14 at someone, keeping the same core, if you don’t win?…

Here is something to ponder, even at 12M, Leafs could have Zach Hyman and Tom Wilson for that salary. If it's $14M, you have a couple of million extra to spare. I just pulled those two names off of the top of my head I'm sure there are even better options.

When the playoffs roll around, would any team rather have Marner or Hyman/Wilson in their lineup?

Marner is a talented guy, has the most impressive I've seen vision since Gretzky or Gilmour, it's that good. I'm watching the game from the birds eye view of the TV angle and he's still seeing the play unfold better than I can. It's incredible at times how he sees the ice from ice level.

He kills penalties, he strips pucks, he finds the open man, he's even shooting more. This years Marner is the best I've seen except for a few game stretches each year.

All of that said, it comes down to "will he (and the other core) show up when the pressure is amped up, the game gets physical, the ice is smaller and every shift in every game becomes magnified?"

The Leafs have been emulating the definition of insanity for nine years now, even when challenged by reporters in their year end excuse fests. They've been in their primes for a couple of years.

Because it's the Leafs, I expect them to overpay for him, give him a full NTC, and handcuff their team again so that they lose key players down the road, be it Knies, Benoit, a goalie or young up and coming player.

 

[notbias]

When the playoffs roll around, would any team rather have Marner or Hyman/Wilson in their lineup?

Wilson produces like a 3rd liner, and so did Hyman until McDavid started banking pucks off of him...

I'd likely take the guy who produces like a first-liner in the playoffs and doesn't rely on others to do so, but maybe other people want a team full of role players.

This team had Hyman, and he produced like a third/fourth liner. Why do people think he would magically produce like he does with McDavid without McDavid?

 

[Evilhomer]

Here is something to ponder, even at 12M, Leafs could have Zach Hyman and Tom Wilson for that salary. If it's $14M, you have a couple of million extra to spare. I just pulled those two names off of the top of my head I'm sure there are even better options.

When the playoffs roll around, would any team rather have Marner or Hyman/Wilson in their lineup?

Marner is a talented guy, has the most impressive I've seen vision since Gretzky or Gilmour, it's that good. I'm watching the game from the birds eye view of the TV angle and he's still seeing the play unfold better than I can. It's incredible at times how he sees the ice from ice level.

He kills penalties, he strips pucks, he finds the open man, he's even shooting more. This years Marner is the best I've seen except for a few game stretches each year.

All of that said, it comes down to "will he (and the other core) show up when the pressure is amped up, the game gets physical, the ice is smaller and every shift in every game becomes magnified?"

The Leafs have been emulating the definition of insanity for nine years now, even when challenged by reporters in their year end excuse fests. They've been in their primes for a couple of years.

Because it's the Leafs, I expect them to overpay for him, give him a full NTC, and handcuff their team again so that they lose key players down the road, be it Knies, Benoit, a goalie or young up and coming player.

While I understand what you're saying, Hyman and Wilson are really not good examples. I doubt there is a team in the league that would choose a combination of Hyman and Wilson over Marner, unless you happen to be playing Hyman next McDavid. God bless that Wilson is having a bit of a resurgence this season, but that is one of the worst contracts in the entire league.

 

[Leafsfan74]

While I understand what you're saying, Hyman and Wilson are really not good examples. I doubt there is a team in the league that would choose a combination of Hyman and Wilson over Marner, unless you happen to be playing Hyman next McDavid. God bless that Wilson is having a bit of a resurgence this season, but that is one of the worst contracts in the entire league.

Yeah I just pulled their names off the top of my head because I've always liked Wilsons game when the game gets into the trenches and Hyman has proven he can play with these Leafs with his constant puck retrieval and net presence which is critical for the playoffs.

I'm sure there are far better examples, but, I'm not concerned at all with regular season stats, just get to the dance healthy and let them roll. Does the fan base want an exciting regular season that ends with a 7 game playoff or do they want a long playoff run? Clearly this is a no-brainer question.

Claude Lemieux may be one of the best examples of such players. Playoffs arrive and he become a Scottish Highlander soldier.

 

[Evilhomer]

Yeah I just pulled their names off the top of my head because I've always liked Wilsons game when the game gets into the trenches and Hyman has proven he can play with these Leafs with his constant puck retrieval and net presence which is critical for the playoffs.

I'm sure there are far better examples, but, I'm not concerned at all with regular season stats, just get to the dance healthy and let them roll. Does the fan base want an exciting regular season that ends with a 7 game playoff or do they want a long playoff run? Clearly this is a no-brainer question.

Claude Lemieux may be one of the best examples of such players. Playoffs arrive and he become a Scottish Highlander soldier.

Agreed, and if you could trade Marner for one of the Tkachuk brothers I would probably consider that. But it's irrelevant at this point because you can't trade Marner at all, and you also can't simply let him walk away for nothing.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

We hold steady until after the playoffs.

Don’t see the rush anyway. Not like he’s on an ELC and his performance will make a massive difference in the cap hit. He’ll get about the same either way.

 

[notbias]

Yeah I just pulled their names off the top of my head because I've always liked Wilsons game when the game gets into the trenches and Hyman has proven he can play with these Leafs with his constant puck retrieval and net presence which is critical for the playoffs.

Hyman proved useless in the playoffs with these Leafs but people ignore that because it doesn't fit their talking points.

I'm sure there are far better examples, but, I'm not concerned at all with regular season stats, just get to the dance healthy and let them roll. Does the fan base want an exciting regular season that ends with a 7 game playoff or do they want a long playoff run? Clearly this is a no-brainer question.

There are, those two don't produce much and our problem is scoring.

Agreed, and if you could trade Marner for one of the Tkachuk brothers I would probably consider that. But it's irrelevant at this point because you can't trade Marner at all, and you also can't simply let him walk away for nothing.

Brady Tkachuk is super overrated, Matthew Tkachuk was considered a playoff dud until arriving in Florida.

Looks like the lesser role helped.

Hitting people doesn't automatically make you score in the playoffs, Matthew Tkachuk proved that in Calgary.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Agreed, and if you could trade Marner for one of the Tkachuk brothers I would probably consider that. But it's irrelevant at this point because you can't trade Marner at all, and you also can't simply let him walk away for nothing.

I disagree with your last statement. You can let him walk away. You aren't getting nothing back in return, you are getting $11M in cap relief.

The Leafs will sign and overpay him. They will continue to be handcuffed and lose when the playoffs begin.

I'd love to be wrong, but after eight prior seasons, I can't see the spots changing as much as Berube is trying to force them to do so. He is going to learn after two games in the playoffs just how much they shrink while other teams feast.

Give me the Knies, McManns, McCabes and Benoits of the world and I will give you a Cup.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Hyman proved useless in the playoffs with these Leafs but people ignore that because it doesn't fit their talking points.



There are, those two don't produce much and our problem is scoring.



Brady Tkachuk is super overrated, Matthew Tkachuk was considered a playoff dud until arriving in Florida.

Looks like the lesser role helped.

Hitting people doesn't automatically make you score in the playoffs, Matthew Tkachuk proved that in Calgary.

I said the same of Kadri and Hyman when they signed elsewhere.

I repeat my mantra which I believe still holds true today and every year I've watched the NHL playoffs since I was a tyke, "give me a pack of wolves not a lone wolf".

A lone wolf in the NHL playoffs is nothing more than prey. Surround him with others of the same ilk though and it's a different story. The Leafs are a flashy government agency, they like the lone wolf as long as they sell jersey and safe corporate ads.

This is why depth and balance in your lineup produces a pack and usually the Stanley Cup winner.

 

[notbias]

I said the same of Kadri and Hyman when they signed elsewhere.

I repeat my mantra which I believe still holds true today and every year I've watched the NHL playoffs since I was a tyke, "give me a pack of wolves not a lone wolf".

A lone wolf in the NHL playoffs is nothing more than prey. Surround him with others of the same ilk though and it's a different story. The Leafs are a flashy government agency, they like the lone wolf as long as they sell jersey and safe corporate ads.

This is why depth and balance in your lineup produces a pack and usually the Stanley Cup winner.

A lone wolf took his team to game 7 of the cup finals last year...

This saying is also so insanely subjective that it is pointless to discuss.

The best example of a pack team is something like NYI, who suck, there is no perfect way to build an NHL team, and I am not sure that Colorado was any more of a "pack" team than the Leafs and they were the best playoff team in the last few years.

 

[Evilhomer]

I disagree with your last statement. You can let him walk away. You aren't getting nothing back in return, you are getting $11M in cap relief.

The Leafs will sign and overpay him. They will continue to be handcuffed and lose when the playoffs begin.

I'd love to be wrong, but after eight prior seasons, I can't see the spots changing as much as Berube is trying to force them to do so. He is going to learn after two games in the playoffs just how much they shrink while other teams feast.

Give me the Knies, McManns, McCabes and Benoits of the world and I will give you a Cup.

Fair enough. I disagree with you on what will happen in the playoffs. I think this team will finish first in the conference and roll over the 8th seed in the first round, and that momentum will continue through the second round and conference final.

 

[notbias]

I disagree with your last statement. You can let him walk away. You aren't getting nothing back in return, you are getting $11M in cap relief.

The Leafs will sign and overpay him. They will continue to be handcuffed and lose when the playoffs begin.

I'd love to be wrong, but after eight prior seasons, I can't see the spots changing as much as Berube is trying to force them to do so. He is going to learn after two games in the playoffs just how much they shrink while other teams feast.

Give me the Knies, McManns, McCabes and Benoits of the world and I will give you a Cup.

This is Lou's philosophy... go check their record... the longer he has had his hands on the team, the worse they got.

 

[ULF_55]

Yeah I just pulled their names off the top of my head because I've always liked Wilsons game when the game gets into the trenches and Hyman has proven he can play with these Leafs with his constant puck retrieval and net presence which is critical for the playoffs.

I'm sure there are far better examples, but, I'm not concerned at all with regular season stats, just get to the dance healthy and let them roll. Does the fan base want an exciting regular season that ends with a 7 game playoff or do they want a long playoff run? Clearly this is a no-brainer question.

Claude Lemieux may be one of the best examples of such players. Playoffs arrive and he become a Scottish Highlander soldier.

Wanting different, perhaps better playoffs players, isn't about Cap Space though.

The players have to be available, and although the list isn't horrible right now, Rantanen, Ekblad, Boeser, Ehler, Granlund, CapWages - NHL Salary Cap Data most of these guys will be re-signed by their own teams.

Leafs veteran players, which includes Matthews, Nylander, ... okay for the most part they are all veterans outside of Knies, Woll, Robertson, Holmberg, and if they stick Minten and Marlies, have not had a coach who has "been there and done that."

Matthews doesn't need a caddie, and marner is needed elsewhere anyway.

Term? I'd be surprised if he goes full term.

 

[Leafsfan74]

A lone wolf took his team to game 7 of the cup finals last year...

This saying is also so insanely subjective that it is pointless to discuss.

The best example of a pack team is something like NYI, who suck, there is no perfect way to build an NHL team, and I am not sure that Colorado was any more of a "pack" team than the Leafs and they were the best playoff team in the last few years.

Vegas of a couple of years ago was pretty damn close to the blueprint for how to build a championship. They understood the game better than most of the leagues owners in their first season on out. Impressive. Their first season may have produced the strongest down low, cycling, puck possession team I've seen. They lost but damn they were strong on the puck.

I also believe they may have won another Cup if not for injury problems. I've watched their games more than any other team other than the Leafs for a reason. I enjoy their games most nights.

A new franchise in the middle of the desert who have been the Cup Finals twice and have a Cup. Leafs haven't been to the Finals since 1967. 1967...I mean, what in the actual...

Too many fans make the mistake of over intellectualizing a sport in which a mans will decides just how much they are willing to sacrifice to win when the playoffs begin. Here we are in 2024 but it could just as easily be 2017.

Leaf fans have the shortest memories it seems. Here is a guarantee, not one game the Leafs have played this year is going to compare to the first two games in the playoffs. Not one.

 

[notbias]

Vegas of a couple of years ago was pretty damn close to the blueprint for how to build a championship. They understood the game better than most of the leagues owners in their first season on out. Impressive. Their first season may have produced the strongest down low, cycling, puck possession team I've seen. They lost but damn they were strong on the puck.

So we just need to cheat...

I also believe they may have won another Cup if not for injury problems. I've watched their games more than any other team other than the Leafs for a reason. I enjoy their games most nights.

Did they stop their pack mentality last year?

A new franchise in the middle of the desert who have been the Cup Finals twice and have a Cup. Leafs haven't been to the Finals since 1967. 1967...I mean, what in the actual...

Still needed to cheat to win.

Not to mention, Vegas benefited from dumb GMs who were paying a ton to get rid of good players who slumped for a season.

Check out Seattle if you want to see what happens when GMs stop doing that.

Too many fans make the mistake of over intellectualizing a sport in which a mans will decides just how much they are willing to sacrifice to win when the playoffs begin. Here we are in 2024 but it could just as easily be 2017.

So if both teams sacrifice 100% and try 100%, then who wins?

This is such a lazy argument.

It is what people say when they can't grasp that hockey has way too many variables and is too random of a game to come up with a winning formula.

The winning formula is to put together the best team possible (will/effort can be part of that), which will give you the best odds of winning, and then hope that bounces go your way.

Leaf fans have the shortest memories it seems. Here is a guarantee, not one game the Leafs have played this year is going to compare to the first two games in the playoffs. Not one.

I agree, you brought up Hyman as a playoff performer, didn't perform here, very short memory.

 

[notbias]

Vegas of a couple of years ago was pretty damn close to the blueprint for how to build a championship. They understood the game better than most of the leagues owners in their first season on out. Impressive. Their first season may have produced the strongest down low, cycling, puck possession team I've seen. They lost but damn they were strong on the puck.

I also believe they may have won another Cup if not for injury problems. I've watched their games more than any other team other than the Leafs for a reason. I enjoy their games most nights.

A new franchise in the middle of the desert who have been the Cup Finals twice and have a Cup. Leafs haven't been to the Finals since 1967. 1967...I mean, what in the actual...

Too many fans make the mistake of over intellectualizing a sport in which a mans will decides just how much they are willing to sacrifice to win when the playoffs begin. Here we are in 2024 but it could just as easily be 2017.

Leaf fans have the shortest memories it seems. Here is a guarantee, not one game the Leafs have played this year is going to compare to the first two games in the playoffs. Not one.

Just because I want to point out how dumb some GMs were during the Vegas draft...

Shea Theodore was traded to draft Clayton Stoner
A 1st and a 2nd were traded to draft William Karlsson
Reilly Smith was traded to draft Marchessault
Tuch was traded to draft Haula
A 1st and 2nd were traded to draft Jean-Francois Berube

Just from these trades Vegas got Theodore, Tuch, Smith, 2x 1st, 2x 2nd to take Haula, Karlsson, Marchessault, Stoner, and Berube.

They got their top line, one of their best D, and a ton of draft capital for GMs not realizing that a down year doesn't mean the player is bad.

There were other lesser trades (moved up 10 spots in the first round to draft signing rights, picks to take Fleury, etc)

 

[ULF_55]

We should stop with comparing years 1 - 4 with years 5-8.

Who expects 18-22 year old future stars to perform as well as 25-32 year olds?

Look at those goal scorers ages, 31, 30, 28, 29 ...
Look at the Leafs ages today:

Also, look at the experience of the coaches they've had compared to Keefe.

Yeah, we're all disappointed, but now this is a veteran team, with a veteran proven coach, and a veteran GM.

Now is the time to get it done.

 

[Evilhomer]

Here is a guarantee, not one game the Leafs have played this year is going to compare to the first two games in the playoffs. Not one.

This should be repeated over and over again, both when the Leafs win and, frankly, even moreso when they lose regular season games.

 

[thewave]

162 point pace with Holmberg. You do the math.

Not that it matters overly much but is a + or a - with Holmberg. Not big on + - obviously but its nice to see a line on the + side.

 

[Confucius]

Agreed, and if you could trade Marner for one of the Tkachuk brothers I would probably consider that. But it's irrelevant at this point because you can't trade Marner at all, and you also can't simply let him walk away for nothing.

It’s never for nothing, if you trade him for someone you get an 11 million dollar player or some combination of players back. If he walks you use the money he would have cost you on UFA’s. It’s not like in the day when there was no cap and no ufa status at all. Where a player was tied to a team for life.

 

[Its not your fault]

Whether we are talking $ or %, I don't think he should be making more than Nylander, so not more than $10M (I don't think Willy should be making more than $10M either).

Particularly if he's going to get more than $12, I would rather he not get it here.

I wouldn't be shocked if he got $13 here or elsewhere.


Nylander has been driving the second line for at least two years.

Hard to say they missed much of a beat with Matthews out and then Knivs. 1 bad game.

 

[Its not your fault]

It’s never for nothing, if you trade him for someone you get an 11 million dollar player or some combination of players back. If he walks you use the money he would have cost you on UFA’s. It’s not like in the day when there was no cap and no ufa status at all. Where a player was tied to a team for life.

So then you're saying Marner is a player that is easily replaceable.... If he goes why would you not blow it up? Kinda strange to think a team that didn't win now has a better shot at winning. He plays 1 3rd of the game.