Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[Antropovsky]

I mean…I’ll give it a shot

In his last 16 games nylander has
5 goals 7 assists 12 points

Marner has
5 goals 18 assists 23 points

So Marner has 1.5x the assists and the same amount of goals

how many of those points are since Matthews came back?

Yet while Matthews was injured... Marner and Nylander had pretty much same point totals? Marner with just 6 5v5 points in 14 games. Even despite Marner playing with Tavares and Nylander with 3rd and 4th liners?

Matthews has a very significant effect on Marners points totals over the years, I've shown this many times in the past.

This isn't a surprise though, Tulskys research said that a players linemates have the most significant impact on a players results. What we know is that Matthews actually produces more without Marner, however, Marner produces significantly less without Matthews.

Tulskys research actually states that some players are more effected by quality of linemates than others. Marner is obviously the player who is effected by quality of linemates. While Nylander, Matthews and Tavares aren't so much. This makes sense though, because Marner is a "playmaker"... so he's heavily dependant on the abilities of his linemates to score. While Tavares, Nylander can shoot and pass and Matthews is just an incredible shooter and skater with the puck that he turns average shooting positions to high danger scoring chances.

"Eric Tulsky, currently the general manager of the Carolina Hurricanes, has conducted significant research on the impact of linemates and competition on player performance in hockey. His studies have revealed that linemates generally have a more substantial effect on a player's results than the quality of competition faced. Specifically, a one percentage point increase in teammate Corsi% (a measure of shot attempt differential) can lead to an approximate 1.5 percentage point improvement in a player's observed performance. Conversely, a similar increase in the quality of competition can decrease a player's performance by about 1.5 percentage points. However, the distribution of teammate quality in the NHL is broader than that of competition quality, indicating that while linemates have a more pronounced impact, the variability in competition faced is narrower. It's also noteworthy that the influence of linemates isn't uniform across all players; some players are more affected by the quality of their linemates than others"

 

[hullsy47]

how many of those points are since Matthews came back?

Yet while Matthews was injured... Marner and Nylander had pretty much same point totals? Marner with just 6 5v5 points in 14 games. Even despite Marner playing with Tavares and Nylander with 3rd and 4th liners?

Matthews has a very significant effect on Marners points totals over the years, I've shown this many times in the past.

This isn't a surprise though, Tulskys research said that a players linemates have the most significant impact on a players results. What we know is that Matthews actually produces more without Marner, however, Marner produces significantly less without Matthews.

Tulskys research actually states that some players are more effected by quality of linemates than others. Marner is obviously the player who is effected by quality of linemates. While Nylander, Matthews and Tavares aren't so much. This makes sense though, because Marner is a "playmaker"... so he's heavily dependant on the abilities of his linemates to score. While Tavares, Nylander can shoot and pass and Matthews is just an incredible shooter and skater with the puck that he turns average shooting positions to high danger scoring chances.

"Eric Tulsky, currently the general manager of the Carolina Hurricanes, has conducted significant research on the impact of linemates and competition on player performance in hockey. His studies have revealed that linemates generally have a more substantial effect on a player's results than the quality of competition faced. Specifically, a one percentage point increase in teammate Corsi% (a measure of shot attempt differential) can lead to an approximate 1.5 percentage point improvement in a player's observed performance. Conversely, a similar increase in the quality of competition can decrease a player's performance by about 1.5 percentage points. However, the distribution of teammate quality in the NHL is broader than that of competition quality, indicating that while linemates have a more pronounced impact, the variability in competition faced is narrower. It's also noteworthy that the influence of linemates isn't uniform across all players; some players are more affected by the quality of their linemates than others"

Ok .mitch knows what his offer is
Do the leafs a solid and sign before the 4 nations or dont play in it
The offer is on tye table for sure

 

[ToneDog]

I mean…I’ll give it a shot

In his last 16 games nylander has
5 goals 7 assists 12 points

Marner has
5 goals 18 assists 23 points

So Marner has 1.5x the assists and the same amount of goals

Now do goals for Oct., Nov. and Dec. Marner averages less than 4 goals per month. Willie is 3rd in the race for the Rocket and is averaging 7 goals per month and he slept through half of December and January.

 

[Maple Leaf]

The only Leaf fans that are reaching their limit, are the ones they don’t care about. They will still sell all the seasons tickets to suckers or people with money to burn, who support this embarrassment of a franchise.

MLSE only cares about profit and the cash and marner fanboys keep flowin

 

[thewave]

how many of those points are since Matthews came back?

Yet while Matthews was injured... Marner and Nylander had pretty much same point totals? Marner with just 6 5v5 points in 14 games. Even despite Marner playing with Tavares and Nylander with 3rd and 4th liners?

Matthews has a very significant effect on Marners points totals over the years, I've shown this many times in the past.

This isn't a surprise though, Tulskys research said that a players linemates have the most significant impact on a players results. What we know is that Matthews actually produces more without Marner, however, Marner produces significantly less without Matthews.

Tulskys research actually states that some players are more effected by quality of linemates than others. Marner is obviously the player who is effected by quality of linemates. While Nylander, Matthews and Tavares aren't so much. This makes sense though, because Marner is a "playmaker"... so he's heavily dependant on the abilities of his linemates to score. While Tavares, Nylander can shoot and pass and Matthews is just an incredible shooter and skater with the puck that he turns average shooting positions to high danger scoring chances.

"Eric Tulsky, currently the general manager of the Carolina Hurricanes, has conducted significant research on the impact of linemates and competition on player performance in hockey. His studies have revealed that linemates generally have a more substantial effect on a player's results than the quality of competition faced. Specifically, a one percentage point increase in teammate Corsi% (a measure of shot attempt differential) can lead to an approximate 1.5 percentage point improvement in a player's observed performance. Conversely, a similar increase in the quality of competition can decrease a player's performance by about 1.5 percentage points. However, the distribution of teammate quality in the NHL is broader than that of competition quality, indicating that while linemates have a more pronounced impact, the variability in competition faced is narrower. It's also noteworthy that the influence of linemates isn't uniform across all players; some players are more affected by the quality of their linemates than others"

All I got from this is that Marner is overrated and we need to figure out a way to turn Nylander into a 2C ASAP.

Very good information! Supported by the eye test of this consumer of alcohol based beverages.

 

[ToneDog]

Ok .mitch knows what his offer is
Do the leafs a solid and sign before the 4 nations or dont play in it
The offer is on tye table for sure

One explanation for not signing is it is not enough. He is risking quite a bit playing without a contract in his back pocket. Then again, not many can avoid contact like he can so only way he gets hurt is when he tries to do one of his ice capades moves.

 

[Aashir]

I mean, when you’re cherrypicking stats like that, I bet you can find better goalscorers out there than Ovie, historically. Finding it doesn’t make it true

I just used the same sample size as the one that said marner has 4 goals in 15 games.

I'm not illustrating that Marner is a better goal scorer, that is stupidly wrong. Instead what I am illustrating is Marner isn't the only one struggling to score goals right now

Fact is, Mitch has 15 goals all season. In this 16 game stretch you alluded to, he has 2 EN goals and a hat trick against Detroit. If you want to go 13 games before that point, he had 1 goal. So 6 goals in 29 games. Goalscorers are streaky in general, Marner just doesn’t score often

That's fair. I am just saying that alot of people are struggling to score right now. Offence in general is a struggle, and I am worried that Berube's system of trying to generate offence won't translate over into the playoffs and we will get "Goalied" again

Now do goals for Oct., Nov. and Dec. Marner averages less than 4 goals per month. Willie is 3rd in the race for the Rocket and is averaging 7 goals per month and he slept through half of December and January.

Yea no Marner is not a Nylander level goal scorer, not what I am trying to say, I am just pointing out that in this time fram he isn't the only one struggling to score goals. It's a team problem and I am not liking how easy our team is to shut down. It's starting to look like we are getting ready to lose 2-1 in playoff games but this time the defence will be what we expected vs last year where it stepped up to play much tighter.

 

[thewave]

One explanation for not signing is it is not enough. He is risking quite a bit playing without a contract in his back pocket. Then again, not many can avoid contact like he can so only way he gets hurt is when he tries to do one of his ice capades moves.

When it is on the line our opponents are on top of Marner and he is useless. It then drags down Matthews and people wonder why Matthews totals go down equal to Marner in the POs. It's because Marner drags Matthews down and Nylander stays the same along with JT because they aren't affected by that crap on their line.

 

[Confucius]

Ideally, the team wanted 8 years. And while it certainly wasn't to "screw over the Leafs organization" like Mess falsely claimed, the players (outside maybe Nylander, who wanted security and stability after moving a lot through his childhood) wanted less term; likely due to a feeling that they were mistreated and their earning potential was abnormally neutered by Babcock through their ELCs. Also because the cap was projected to skyrocket right after their signings.

The players and team compromised on 5-6 year terms (the most common high end post-ELC terms in the cap era). The "flexibility" being referenced was cap flexibility for the team to build around them (as 8 year contracts would have been more costly), and flexibility for the players to reevaluate their situation and alignment with the cap prior to 8 years.[/U]

That’s why they were overpaid, it didn’t pan out and they want raises as if it did. It doesn’t matter to them next year’s cap in all likelihood should have been the cap 2 years ago. That’s what we based their pay on. Therefore guys like Marner aren’t being underpaid by not getting an increase now.

 

[IPS]

Points come in many different types, and can be represented in many different forms. Raw points refers to the accumulated overall total, without any additional information or context.

I'm sure they can, and I'm sure they can very accurately too, if you actually had a track record of proving anything correct I'm sure more posters would take interest but that just ain't the case.

 

[keonsbitterness]

I wonder if Mitch and his team would sign a 1 year contract and then look to take advantage the following year with the cap expected to go up yet again.

Mitch might. No team would.

Tre won't find a team just like he could not find a team to take Nylander. Overpaying Nylander was his best option. What a fool if he believes that. Welcome back PPG Willie.

I'm sure they found teams, but didn't like what they were offering.

Lololol. I’m gonna book mark this. If they get him at 11, I’ll happily eat crow and apologize… but I think there’s maybe a 5 percent chance that happens. If Marner did that, he’d probably be the most beloved leaf again.

0% chance

 

[IPS]

Actually, the reports were that they didn't go above 11.75m; well below Mackinnon's contract. Is Colorado going to trade Makar?

11.75M actually lines up remarkably well with how other elite wingers are valued/paid around the league, save for the exception of the clown show we got here in Toronto. Hell it's even a higher cap % than what Kuch got on his 3rd contract, and that's even if we go on the projected 92.4M next year.

I'm sure Makar will be negotiated relative to the value the best defensemen in the league would carry.

 

[Antropovsky]

When it is on the line our opponents are on top of Marner and he is useless. It then drags down Matthews and people wonder why Matthews totals go down equal to Marner in the POs. It's because Marner drags Matthews down and Nylander stays the same along with JT because they aren't affected by that crap on their line.

Exactly... vs Sens Matthews line was trying to cycle but Marner was standing on the blueline lol. Majority of the time Matthews line had the puck Marner would just throw it away and they would be going to the D end. I laughed out loud on one shift where Matthews line had the puck in the Ozone and Marner gave the puck away, Matthews and Mcmann recovered it with physical hard work and it went back to Marner and he immediately gave it away again!

 

[thewave]

Exactly... vs Sens Matthews line was trying to cycle but Marner was standing on the blueline lol. Majority of the time Matthews line had the puck Marner would just throw it away and they would be going to the D end. I laughed out loud on one shift where Matthews line had the puck in the Ozone and Marner gave the puck away, Matthews and Mcmann recovered it with physical hard work and it went back to Marner and he immediately gave it away again!

You and I and some of the other guys here see it but a lot don't. Nothing we can really do except pointing it out until it gets acknowledged for what it is.

 

[Antropovsky]

5v5 Matthews had 2 shot attempts vs Sens. Is that his fault or his linemates fault? I thought Marner is an incredible playmaker that shouldn't be judged on shots/goals/ixg because his job is to get the puck to his teammates?

 

[thewave]

5v5 Matthews had 2 shot attempts vs Sens. Is that his fault or his linemates fault? I thought Marner is an incredible playmaker that shouldn't be judged on shots/goals/ixg because his job is to get the puck to his teammates?

He is a fantastic playmaker. In order for this to happen he must be allowed to have time and space to make his twirls and fancy passes. If teams don't go along with the unwritten law of the land and play him aggressively, he turns to shambles.

 

[GoonieFace]

5v5 Matthews had 2 shot attempts vs Sens. Is that his fault or his linemates fault? I thought Marner is an incredible playmaker that shouldn't be judged on shots/goals/ixg because his job is to get the puck to his teammates?

He’s obsessed with chucking weak wrist shots at the net from the blue line, where he seems to be hanging out most of the time. Some people say it’s because he is defensively responsible. I say he doesn’t want to go into the corners.

 

[Aashir]

5v5 Matthews had 2 shot attempts vs Sens. Is that his fault or his linemates fault? I thought Marner is an incredible playmaker that shouldn't be judged on shots/goals/ixg because his job is to get the puck to his teammates?

But shouldn’t it be Matthews’s job to get his shot off?

Admittedly I didn’t get to watch the entire game, but how is it Marner’s fault his linemate didn’t shoot.

Matthews could’ve carried it in and shot too, he doesn’t need to be fed the puck

 

[Martin Skoula]

stats aside, the other elite playmakers that live off their IQ have multiple weapons to keep defenses guessing. Crosby has tree trunk legs and a varied shot arsenal, Kucherov has a top end shot, Draisaitl is big and has an elite shot, McDavid can skate through your team blindfolded. Marner doesn’t have anything in his game where he can force the other team to pick between two bad options, if you clog the slot there’s not a whole lot he can do about it. If you take away his passing options you can give him time and space relatively risk free.

 

[thewave]

stats aside, the other elite playmakers that live off their IQ have multiple weapons to keep defenses guessing. Crosby has tree trunk legs and a varied shot arsenal, Kucherov has a top end shot, Draisaitl is big and has an elite shot, McDavid can skate through your team blindfolded. Marner doesn’t have anything in his game where he can force the other team to pick between two bad options, if you clog the slot there’s not a whole lot he can do about it. If you take away his passing options you can give him time and space relatively risk free.

Or just skate at him aggressively a few times and drop him on his ass and watch him fall apart. You don't even need to hit him. He can't deal with it.

 

[ToneDog]

He’s obsessed with chucking weak wrist shots at the net from the blue line, where he seems to be hanging out most of the time. Some people say it’s because he is defensively responsible. I say he doesn’t want to go into the corners.

I notice Kaprizov and Panarin doing this but both are also a threat to score goals.

 

[hamzarocks]

Internal messed up cap structure wise marner is worth 14M x 8

A much worse player in Nylander makes 11.5M

A slightly better player in Matthews makes 13.25M x 4

In a league where we had proper and capable management/ownership he would be at ~10.5M x 8, Nylander at 9Mx8 and Matthews at 11.5M x8

However we overpaid 2 of the 3 so likely will be making it 3 for 3 with marner

 

[leafs in five]

You and I and some of the other guys here see it but a lot don't. Nothing we can really do except pointing it out until it gets acknowledged for what it is.

I simply refuse to acknowledge that Marner ever the gives the puck away, if it ever happened I'm pretty sure I would remember it and I can't remember it ever happening

 

[francis246]

You and I and some of the other guys here see it but a lot don't. Nothing we can really do except pointing it out until it gets acknowledged for what it is.

Matthews was completely ineffective against the Sens.

1 SOG, 0 Hits, 0 blocked shots. Nothing. Marner and Domi led the team in hits 3 each.

It’s okay to admit that Matthews completely sucked ass. Marner and Nylander made bad turnovers but it was because they were trying to create offense . Granted they need to learn to adjust to what the defense is giving them instead of force what’s not available they were trying to still play their game. Matthews did nothing. Fly bys on the forecheck, didn’t shoot. He was completely neutralized. Never used his speed or size to create anything for himself. You guys are continually the ones who say Matthews doesn’t need Marner but when Matthews is ineffective it’s Marners fault?

 

[Hallonbroder]

Internal messed up cap structure wise marner is worth 14M x 8

A much worse player in Nylander makes 11.5M

A slightly better player in Matthews makes 13.25M x 4

In a league where we had proper and capable management/ownership he would be at ~10.5M x 8, Nylander at 9Mx8 and Matthews at 11.5M x8

However we overpaid 2 of the 3 so likely will be making it 3 for 3 with marner

“Much worse” and “Slightly better” tells us that your post is a trap.