Miscellaneous NHL Discussion LXVIII: Post Free Agent Frenzy

[Magua]

So, how does that Hart "overpay" look now?

Saros has been one of the better performing goalies in the league for years now and is 1 year from free agency. He’s also coming off his best year, after being made starter and carrying Nashville to the playoffs when Rinne was league bottom (crazy that the same team can have a top 5 and bottom 5 goalie and it’s not just defense!). Despite your self-satisfied tone, it just makes Hart’s contract look worse actually.

 

[deadhead]

Saros has never started more than 35 games (23, 27, 34, 35 though last two seasons were truncated), .895 in the bubble playoffs, .921 this year's playoffs. He's had a much better defense in front of him than Hart.
GAA - xGA/60 (all situations):
2020-21: -0.17 / +0.18 in the PO
2019-20: +0.16 / +1.20 in the PO
2018-19: -0.05
2017-18: -0.49

He's 26, he's a solid starter, but would you trade Hart for him straight up?
Saros is more reliable but has had a chance to develop in a low pressure situation behind an elite defensive corp.
Hart has had higher highs (a great PO performance) and a much lower low, but I'd say has both more risk and more upside.

 

[Asnito]

So, how does that Hart "overpay" look now?

Dude they traded a 2nd, 7th and Ghost just for cap space and then proceeded to waste 1.5 million of it on Hart's contract.

Like holy hell what's the point of giving away assets for cap space if you're not going to be judicious with it's use.

 

[Magua]

Saros has never started more than 35 games (23, 27, 34, 35 though last two seasons were truncated), .895 in the bubble playoffs, .921 this year's playoffs. He's had a much better defense in front of him than Hart.
GAA - xGA/60 (all situations):
2020-21: -0.17 / +0.18 in the PO
2019-20: +0.16 / +1.20 in the PO
2018-19: -0.05
2017-18: -0.49

He's 26, he's a solid starter, but would you trade Hart for him straight up?
Saros is more reliable but has had a chance to develop in a low pressure situation behind an elite defensive corp.
Hart has had higher highs (a great PO performance) and a much lower low, but I'd say has both more risk and more upside.

I can smell a bad faith argument a mile away, and this my friend, is a bad faith argument.

Hart has started more than 30 games once. Saros has started 27, 34, 35 games the last 3 seasons compared to Hart's 30, 40, 25 games. Saros has a much better defense in front of him......if you ignore the Flyers had a lower all-situations xGA/60 than Nashville last season. And then you have to conveniently ignore they were top 5 two seasons ago, where Hart performed as one of the top goalies in the league. We have goaltender stats that account for play in front. Saros had the 7th best GSAA/60 last season; he was 15th and 13th in the seasons before that. Again, Rinne was one of the worst 7 goalies behind the same defense.

Trading Hart for Jaros has less than zero to do with this discussion. A discussion concerning a contract ($5 mil) for one of the most consistent netminders in the league, with 3 UFA seasons. And an RFA 2nd contract (~$4 mil) for 2 seasons for a goalie who was just the worst in the league. That I believe Hart can right the ship isn't the topic at hand regarding value. And I'm certainly not doing a jig comparing his contract to Saros'.

 

[Starat327]

I can smell a bad faith argument a mile away, and this my friend, is a bad faith argument.

Hart has started more than 30 games once. Saros has started 27, 34, 35 games the last 3 seasons compared to Hart's 30, 40, 25 games. Saros has a much better defense in front of him......if you ignore the Flyers had a lower all-situations xGA/60 than Nashville last season. And then you have to conveniently ignore they were top 5 two seasons ago, where Hart performed as one of the top goalies in the league. We have goaltender stats that account for play in front. Saros had the 7th best GSAA/60 last season; he was 15th and 13th in the seasons before that. Again, Rinne was one of the worst 7 goalies behind the same defense.

Trading Hart for Jaros has less than zero to do with this discussion. A discussion concerning a contract ($5 mil) for one of the most consistent netminders in the league, with 3 UFA seasons. And an RFA 2nd contract (~$4 mil) for 2 seasons for a goalie who was just the worst in the league. That I believe Hart can right the ship isn't the topic at hand regarding value. And I'm certainly not doing a jig comparing his contract to Saros'.

me likey. you may get a hand pic afterall.

 

[deadhead]

Trading Hart for Jaros has less than zero to do with this discussion. A discussion concerning a contract ($5 mil) for one of the most consistent netminders in the league, with 3 UFA seasons. And an RFA 2nd contract (~$4 mil) for 2 seasons for a goalie who was just the worst in the league. That I believe Hart can right the ship isn't the topic at hand regarding value. And I'm certainly not doing a jig comparing his contract to Saros'.

Just pointing out that starters get long-term deals of $5-6M going into FA.
Hart got 3yr/$4M that will eat most of his RFA years, probably could have gotten 2x3 on a bridge.
If Hart falters, that third year will be expensive, but Ersson will then be the starting goalie on an ELC.
If Hart bounces back, that third year would have cost you $6M on his 5x6 or 6x6 deal.

I think psychology had something to do with it, the contract was a vote of confidence in Hart.
If Hart falters, kiss this season goodbye in any case. And maybe next season as well.

 

[Tripod]

"Hart got 3yr/$4M"

....and he should have gotten 2 years at $2.5 million per.

 

[Rebels57]

Is K’Andre Miller that good? Has someone here watched video on him going into his draft year? I see on the main page and on the NYR board that some wouldn’t do Miller 1-1 in an Eichel trade and adding assets onto him is almost asinine.

I know he’s got some potential, but every game I’ve watched of his, it seemed like the puck was a stretch at times. Maybe I’m missing something or are the NYR fans that overzealous with their assertions?

He's a good young player that Hextall was braindead to pass on after drafting Farabee, but I see him topping out as a middle pairing guy.

Rangers fans have always been f***ing delusional when it comes to their young players. Eichel is worth A LOT more than Miller.

 

[deadhead]

He's a good young player that Hextall was braindead to pass on after drafting Farabee, but I see him topping out as a middle pairing guy.

Rangers fans have always been f***ing delusional when it comes to their young players. Eichel is worth A LOT more than Miller.

Let's see how JOB turns out first, he was finishing strong last year, he has the raw materials to be a top six forward, speed, built like a fire plug, plus shot with a quick release, if he develops into a top six center he's worth as much or more than Miller.

We knew he was a bit of a project coming out of HS instead of the USHL, and had some bad luck starting his college career.

 

[Magua]

I wouldn’t bet on JOB being a top 6 anything. Or center. Some sort of NHL role would be nice; he has skill. For all the talk of his skating and fire plug build, I think his skating will be the single thing holding him back, if such a thing exists. There’s a lot of motion and effort to his stride and little efficiency/power. It hasn’t improved much since his draft year. He also gets knocked off the puck quite a lot, and his off balance hunched over form doesn’t help. I’m also not losing sleep over Miller.

 

[Rebels57]

I wouldn’t bet on JOB being a top 6 anything. Or center. Some sort of NHL role would be nice. For all the talk of his skating and fire plug build, I think his skating will be the single thing holding him back, if such a thing exists. There’s a lot of motion to his form and little efficiency/power. It hasn’t improved much since his draft year. He also gets knocked off the puck quite a lot, and his off balance hunched over form doesn’t help. I’m also not losing sleep over Miller.

Whether or not you're a Miller fan or not, you have to admit he's unquestionably a far more valuable asset than future 4th liner JOB.

 

[Beef Invictus]

So, how does that Hart "overpay" look now?

Looks like an overpay.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

JOB was 21. His 8 goals and 8 assists in 16 games for BU aren't bad, but it's nothing to write home about at that age.

 

[deadhead]

JOB was 21. His 8 goals and 8 assists in 16 games for BU aren't bad, but it's nothing to write home about at that age.

He's had a weird career path, figure going to HS put him a year behind his peers, then the injuries and misfit issues at Providence/BCHL cost him another season. So I'm not worried about him being 21, and he was heating up when the season ended, so had he finished his "junior" season scoring > ppg, especially since he's a goal scorer, that would have been age appropriate.

His weird career path has also meant he probably hasn't gotten a lot of good coaching when it comes to skating and fundamentals, even at BU.

So this season should tell us a lot more, does he make a jump or does he flatline at a decent but not overwhelming level.

 

[freakydallas13]

I have about as much hope that JOB becomes a decent NHL'er that I do Rubtsov.

And I'm pretty down on Rubtsov at this point.

 

[Magua]

Whether or not you're a Miller fan or not, you have to admit he's unquestionably a far more valuable asset than future 4th liner JOB.

You’re ignoring the value Adam Ginning will provide.

 

[Rebels57]

You’re ignoring the value Adam Ginning will provide.

 

[Magua]

View attachment 461393

His physicality will look great on our blue line. Great post.

 

[Beef Invictus]

He's had a weird career path, figure going to HS put him a year behind his peers, then the injuries and misfit issues at Providence/BCHL cost him another season. So I'm not worried about him being 21, and he was heating up when the season ended, so had he finished his "junior" season scoring > ppg, especially since he's a goal scorer, that would have been age appropriate.

His weird career path has also meant he probably hasn't gotten a lot of good coaching when it comes to skating and fundamentals, even at BU.

So this season should tell us a lot more, does he make a jump or does he flatline at a decent but not overwhelming level.

If he hasn't been coached well and that's holding him back then he isn't gonna receive anything he needs in this org.

 

[deadhead]

if you ignore the Flyers had a lower all-situations xGA/60 than Nashville last season.

Wait. I thought AV was a horrible HC who lacks any sort of structure which explains the bad defensive performance.
Now you're telling me the Flyers played better defense than Nashville with 4 top defensemen?

 

[landsbergfan]

 

[Rebels57]

Disgusting.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Disgusting.

inB4 euro football jerseys...

 

[FLYguy3911]

Flat cap era.

 

[Rebels57]

How will the morons running the Flyers come up with a worse jersey advert than the TCL sticker on the helmets? I'm sure they're exciting to give it a go.