Miscellaneous NHL Discussion LXVIII: Post Free Agent Frenzy

[Ghosts Beer]

If you are making this signing it's still Wilson living rent free in GM's heads. This division is overreacting to a perceived issue.

Rinaldo at about 5'9"190 lbs. is no Tom Wilson deterrent. You're making a big deal out of a minor league signing.

 

[BernieParent]

And the Flyers will say Ristolainen had 4 40-point seasons through his age 24 season, while Sanheim has 1 35-point season through his age 24 season. They'll add that Sanheim's career points per game is 0.33 vs. Ristolainen's 0.45.

Thanks for your reply, GB. Sanheim's agent could counter with the significantly higher TOI of Ristolainen over his career (average 23:54/game), notably during his 4 40+ point seasons (25:42/game). Overall points per 60 still favour Ristolainen (1.14 vs 1.03) but it's closer than what the raw totals point to. Then we should also factor into the heavy PP usage from which Ristolainen benefitted to the tune of 111 career PP points, or an average of 17 per 82-game season. As I posted elsewhere, Sanheim enjoyed an average of 0:33 PP time per game during which time he racked up 9 PPPs, or a whole 3 per 82-game season.

Career CF%'s are 51.0 for Sanheim versus 46.0 Ristolainen, and PDO's are 97.5 and 99.3, respectively.

 

[dragonoffrost]

Rinaldo at about 5'9"190 lbs. is no Tom Wilson deterrent. You're making a big deal out of a minor league signing.

You yourself said spot starts... what games per chance would those spot starts be? I know you will now backtrack on those words and say I didn't mean it that way.

Dude is only a fringe NHL player because he'll drop the gloves.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Thanks for your reply, GB. Sanheim's agent could counter with the significantly higher TOI of Ristolainen over his career (average 23:54/game), notably during his 4 40+ point seasons (25:42/game). Overall points per 60 still favour Ristolainen (1.14 vs 1.03) but it's closer than what the raw totals point to. Then we should also factor into the heavy PP usage from which Ristolainen benefitted to the tune of 111 career PP points, or an average of 17 per 82-game season. As I posted elsewhere, Sanheim enjoyed an average of 0:33 PP time per game during which time he racked up 9 PPPs, or a whole 3 per 82-game season.

Career CF%'s are 51.0 for Sanheim versus 46.0 Ristolainen, and PDO's are 97.5 and 99.3, respectively.

I don't think it would behoove Sanheim's camp to point out that Ristolainen has played a lot more time on ice per game than Sanheim and has received much more PP time than Sanheim in an effort to sway the arbitrator that Sanheim deserves an equal contract.

If I'm Ristolainen's lawyer, I thank Sanheim for doing half the work for me.

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Morin can and probably will beat the ever-loving shit out of Tom Wilson this season. Big Sam might be the toughest guy in the league right now, he just doesn't have enough bouts yet to prove my theory. He turns into a different animal when the gloves come off and he has the height and reach to avoid big blows.

Agreed. You can see that animalistic rage just takes over when he drops them. Otherwise such a soft spoken, good natured kid by all accounts. But those are the guys I was most concerned about back when I played.

Also think that he’s put on at least 15 pounds of muscle since last year.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I don't think it would behoove Sanheim's camp to point out that Ristolainen has played a lot more time on ice per game than Sanheim and has received much more PP time than Sanheim in an effort to sway the arbitrator that Sanheim deserves an equal contract.

If I'm Ristolainen's lawyer, I thank Sanheim for doing half the work for me.

Why? TOI is not a reliable metric for measuring quality.

 

[Magua]

Why? TOI is not a reliable metric for measuring quality.

Sure it is! Ristolainen on the worst team in the league just received less ES + PK time than Sanheim per game. Almost a minute actually.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Why? TOI is not a reliable metric for measuring quality.

Because you aren't going to sway an arbitrator by arguing, "But I would have done better if only I had received the time! I swear!" Good luck having that become an arbitration precedent around the league.

 

[Starat327]

Sure it is! Ristolainen on the worst team in the league just received less ES + PK time than Sanheim per game. Almost a minute actually.

I mean, PP points don't count, so why should the time? I'm on board with this.

 

[freakydallas13]

Morin can and probably will beat the ever-loving shit out of Tom Wilson this season. Big Sam might be the toughest guy in the league right now, he just doesn't have enough bouts yet to prove my theory. He turns into a different animal when the gloves come off and he has the height and reach to avoid big blows.

Who was it that Morin absolutely clocked in a Rangers game last year, Lemieux?

 

[Flyerfan4life]

You yourself said spot starts... what games per chance would those spot starts be? I know you will now backtrack on those words and say I didn't mean it that way.

Dude is only a fringe NHL player because he'll drop the gloves.

Zac attack will absolutely stand his own vs. Wilson..

he is the embodiment of the size of the fight in the dog, not the size of the dog

ill never forget when he destroyed Ignala..

guy was not ready for that whoopin.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Because you aren't going to sway an arbitrator by arguing, "But I would have done better if only I had received the time! I swear!" Good luck having that become an arbitration precedent around the league.

But, you can. By pointing out you produce better results per minute. If given time, the results would be better.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

But, you can. By pointing out you produce better results per minute. If given time, the results would be better.

You don't know that. Players getting more minutes are getting different deployment. For example, the defenseman who leads a team in ice time is generally getting deployed in the most difficult defensive situations. You can't just at look at points per minute in a vacuum and make an extrapolation that with more minutes he'd score at the same rate.

Example: By your points per minute theory, Jason Spezza was the 3rd best scorer in the NHL last season, and should be paid on a Marner, Matthews, Panarin level.

You think if he received Marner, Matthews, and Panarin minutes he would have kept up that pace?

You think Spezza deserves a $10M contract and that if he brought up his points per minute he wouldn't be laughed at by the arbitrator?

 

[Beef Invictus]

You don't know that. Players getting more minutes are getting different deployment. For example, the defenseman who leads a team in ice time is generally getting deployed in the most difficult defensive situations. You can't just at look at points per minute in a vacuum and make an extrapolation that with more minutes he'd score at the same rate.

Example: By your points per minute theory, Jason Spezza was the 3rd best scorer in the NHL last season, and should be paid on a Marner, Matthews, Panarin level.

You think if he received Marner, Matthews, and Panarin minutes he would have kept up that pace?

You think Spezza deserves a $10M contract and that if he brought up his points per minute he wouldn't be laughed at by the arbitrator?

Risto was heavily sheltered in a way Sanheim hasn't been, and Sanheim outproduced him.

Sanheim is better than Risto.

I do know that with more usage he would accumulate more points.

 

[BernieParent]

I don't think it would behoove Sanheim's camp to point out that Ristolainen has played a lot more time on ice per game than Sanheim and has received much more PP time than Sanheim in an effort to sway the arbitrator that Sanheim deserves an equal contract.

If I'm Ristolainen's lawyer, I thank Sanheim for doing half the work for me.

More ice time is a doubled-edged sword, though, that has explanations beyond the player not having earned it.

 

[BiggE]

Risto was heavily sheltered in a way Sanheim hasn't been, and Sanheim outproduced him.

Sanheim is better than Risto.

I do know that with more usage he would accumulate more points.

Yup. Anyone who thinks an arbitrator is going to award Sanheim a contract under 4 million is kidding themselves

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yup. Anyone who thinks an arbitrator is going to award Sanheim a contract under 4 million is kidding themselves

It'll come down to whether the arbitrator is an objective judge, or a Hockey Guy.

 

[deeshamrock]

 

[Rebels57]

Good. Shame they even need to be told.

 

[kudymen]

It'll come down to whether the arbitrator is an objective judge, or a Hockey Guy.

One of my newest hobbies is reading Kahneman's works on cognitive biases and behavioral economics while reading these threads - and it makes them (threads) way more enjoyable for comic relief

 

[Ghosts Beer]

More ice time is a doubled-edged sword, though, that has explanations beyond the player not having earned it.

I understand your point Bernie, & there can always be other explanations, but generally more TOI is interpreted as a positive. And the same way it can be argued that Risto received more ice time is because he was on the worst team in the league, he could argue his numbers would be be better if he played with better players.

But, in the end, arbitrators aren’t going to rely on hypotheticals. They’re simply going to rely on hard traditional stats.

 

[Curufinwe]

Yup. Anyone who thinks an arbitrator is going to award Sanheim a contract under 4 million is kidding themselves

Dunn got a 2 x $4m contract after putting up 78 points in 192 games while only averaging 17:27 per game. You guys may be oddly focused on Ristolainen, but there are lots of better, more recent comparables.

Dunn scored 1 P/60 at 5 on 5, same as Sanheim.

 

[deadhead]

Dunn got a 2 x $4m contract after putting up 78 points in 192 games while only averaging 17:27 per game. You guys may be oddly focused on Ristolainen, but there are lots of better, more recent comparables.

Dunn scored 1 P/60 at 5 on 5, same as Sanheim.

Dunn 267g 21-47 68 ES, CFrel +4.4, +4.9, +6.6, +2.6, E +/- +33.5

Sanheim 255g 20-56 76 ES, CFrel +5.8, +1.3, +1.0, +2.8, E +/- +12.4

 

[BritainStix]

Risto was heavily sheltered in a way Sanheim hasn't been, and Sanheim outproduced him.

Sanheim is better than Risto.

I do know that with more usage he would accumulate more points.

Risto was sheltered in a 1D role?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Ristolainen was 3rd in QoC last year on his own blueline.