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NHL Talk Miscellaneous NHL Discussion CIX: Processing a Tremendous Amount of Insane Information

JojoTheWhale

JojoTheWhale

Lemme unload.
May 22, 2008
34,612
108,086
I did something very dumb. I watched a Tulsky interview. He gave a detailed answer about how analysts need to learn to think things through, understand what they don’t know, and what information they would need to change their minds before they’re able to set forth a meaningful opinion. This should have been so easy.

@DancingPanther I’m watching a conversation about concepts like diagnosis of exclusion and we’re stuck with CUTTER DIDN’T RETURN MY CALLS. Kill me.
 
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ajgoal

ajgoal

Almost always never serious
Jun 29, 2015
9,721
28,381
JojoTheWhale said:
I did something very dumb. I watched a Tulsky interview. He gave a detailed answer about how analysts need to learn to think things through, understand what they don’t know, and what information they would need to change their minds before they’re able to set forth a meaningful opinion. This should have been so easy.

@DancingPanther I’m watching a conversation about concepts like diagnosis of exclusion and we’re stuck with CUTTER DIDN’T RETURN MY CALLS. Kill me.
Click to expand...
Hockey is dumb, bud.
 
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deadhead

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,614
21,760
JojoTheWhale said:
I pulled screenshots instead of linking the thread because I know people have problems accessing them without an account. Doubly so with multiple long tweets.

image.png


image.png


image.png
Click to expand...
Problem with Bader is I think he equates scoring with success.
That is, from what I can gather, it's a crude model based on scoring at every level.

I'd like to see a more sophisticated approach that separated ES from PP scoring, and evaluated draft "success" in terms of WAR, not points.

I think PP scoring at lower levels can be very misleading (look at the top PP scorers in the AHL, tend to be dominated by AHL plus veterans who lack the wheels at 5x5 but who thrive 5x4).
 
wankstifier

wankstifier

All glory to the harvest god
Jun 19, 2018
7,977
11,399
JojoTheWhale said:
I did something very dumb. I watched a Tulsky interview. He gave a detailed answer about how analysts need to learn to think things through, understand what they don’t know, and what information they would need to change their minds before they’re able to set forth a meaningful opinion. This should have been so easy.

@DancingPanther I’m watching a conversation about concepts like diagnosis of exclusion and we’re stuck with CUTTER DIDN’T RETURN MY CALLS. Kill me.
Click to expand...
Why bother hiring/drafting the best when there's already some guy in the system?
 
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DancingPanther

DancingPanther

Foundational Titan
Jun 19, 2018
33,160
71,438
JojoTheWhale said:
I did something very dumb. I watched a Tulsky interview. He gave a detailed answer about how analysts need to learn to think things through, understand what they don’t know, and what information they would need to change their minds before they’re able to set forth a meaningful opinion. This should have been so easy.

@DancingPanther I’m watching a conversation about concepts like diagnosis of exclusion and we’re stuck with CUTTER DIDN’T RETURN MY CALLS. Kill me.
Click to expand...
They wholly and explicitly put themselves in the Cutter situation and they deserve it. They chose hubris and a coach over their top prospect even knowing Michkov was closer than everyone thought. They are incapable of understanding what they don't know because they think they know everything. It's nauseating.

Imagining the Flyers doing a retrospective analysis of the Gauthier debacle using a diagnosis by exclusion concept is hilarious to me. Imagine those mental gymnastics
 
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JojoTheWhale

JojoTheWhale

Lemme unload.
May 22, 2008
34,612
108,086
deadhead said:
Problem with Bader is I think he equates scoring with success.
That is, from what I can gather, it's a crude model based on scoring at every level.

I'd like to see a more sophisticated approach that separated ES from PP scoring, and evaluated draft "success" in terms of WAR, not points.

I think PP scoring at lower levels can be very misleading (look at the top PP scorers in the AHL, tend to be dominated by AHL plus veterans who lack the wheels at 5x5 but who thrive 5x4).
Click to expand...

Equating pre-NHL scoring with NHL success might be perfectly fine. I don’t know because I haven’t seen the long term data. I think exploring that thought is reasonable. It might be more useful as an eliminator than anything else. That still holds value.

DancingPanther said:
Authentics will say "if he can't handle that how can he handle the rigors of NHL HOCKEY"
Click to expand...

Relationships ruined with meaningful prospects counter now reads 2. Let’s see if it ticks up further.
 
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Beef Invictus

Beef Invictus

Revolutionary Positivity
Dec 21, 2009
128,960
168,279
Armored Train
JojoTheWhale said:
Equating pre-NHL scoring with NHL success might be perfectly fine. I don’t know because I haven’t seen the long term data. I think exploring that thought is reasonable. It might be more useful as an eliminator than anything else. That still holds value.



Relationships ruined with meaningful prospects counter now reads 2. Let’s see if it ticks up further.
Click to expand...

How many players who suck at scoring pre-NHL put it together and become NHLers?

I bet it is rare.
 
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DancingPanther

DancingPanther

Foundational Titan
Jun 19, 2018
33,160
71,438
JojoTheWhale said:
Equating pre-NHL scoring with NHL success might be perfectly fine. I don’t know because I haven’t seen the long term data. I think exploring that thought is reasonable. It might be more useful as an eliminator than anything else. That still holds value.



Relationships ruined with meaningful prospects counter now reads 2. Let’s see if it ticks up further.
Click to expand...
Wait but this is Clarke we're talking about, so that makes 3 at least with Lindros lol
 
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deadhead

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,614
21,760
Beef Invictus said:
How many players who suck at scoring pre-NHL put it together and become NHLers?

I bet it is rare.
Click to expand...
Causality is the issue.
CHL/SHL HCs aren't development coaches and want to win to keep their jobs.

So they play the most talented (and physically mature for their age) players the most minutes, thus the more talented players tend to score more - but it won't be one on one relationship between ultimate NHL value and pre-NHL scoring.

So if you regress points and success there will be a strong relationship, but there's also a lot of left out variable error. A smart team, using more complete data, might be able to identify players overlooked by a simple model like Bader.
 
Beef Invictus

Beef Invictus

Revolutionary Positivity
Dec 21, 2009
128,960
168,279
Armored Train
deadhead said:
Causality is the issue.
CHL/SHL HCs aren't development coaches and want to win to keep their jobs.

So they play the most talented (and physically mature for their age) players the most minutes, thus the more talented players tend to score more - but it won't be one on one relationship between ultimate NHL value and pre-NHL scoring.

So if you regress points and success there will be a strong relationship, but there's also a lot of left out variable error. A smart team, using more complete data, might be able to identify players overlooked by a simple model like Bader.
Click to expand...

A smart team might do that. Shame the Flyers aren't one of those.
 
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BernieParent

BernieParent

In misery of redwings of suckage for a long time
Mar 13, 2009
24,970
45,406
Chasm of Sar (north of Montreal, Qc)
DancingPanther said:
They wholly and explicitly put themselves in the Cutter situation and they deserve it. They chose hubris and a coach over their top prospect even knowing Michkov was closer than everyone thought. They are incapable of understanding what they don't know because they think they know everything. It's nauseating.

Imagining the Flyers doing a retrospective analysis of the Gauthier debacle using a diagnosis by exclusion concept is hilarious to me. Imagine those mental gymnastics
Click to expand...
Where talent is the active treatment arm, the Flyers are placebo.
 
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DrinkFightFlyers

DrinkFightFlyers

THE TORTURE NEVER STOPS
Sponsor
Sep 24, 2009
23,651
4,610
NJ
I'm sure it's been asked already but is there a good capfriendly alternative now that they're gone?
 
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