NHL Talk Miscellaneous NHL Discussion CIX: Processing a Tremendous Amount of Insane Information

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Hmm, that’s a very vague and imprecise way to make the point. I’m sure it’s correct. Just an odd way of expressing it.

The Carolina experiment will be fascinating to look back on. Drafting is not “easy” in any one draft, but given the incredible amount of mis-pricing going on, over a long enough time horizon, it would be very, very easy to arbitrage the draft.
I think Carolina does the best job at minimizing bad outcomes from the draft. They're always drafting in quantity and they never trade up in the draft at points where the data says that it's pretty much a crap-shoot. It's just a bonus that they don't draft for fit or fall in love with certain archetypes, as that should be a given with any team that drafts well.
 
I pulled screenshots instead of linking the thread because I know people have problems accessing them without an account. Doubly so with multiple long tweets.

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Aside from drafting Michkov, the Sanheim-Krug deal falling through is the best thing that has happened to this FO since Briere became GM.
Some teams try to screw the Flyers in every deal. It was so easy to do when Fletcher was around. Going to be a tough thing for Briere to break
 
I pulled screenshots instead of linking the thread because I know people have problems accessing them without an account. Doubly so with multiple long tweets.

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Math and probability is literally why a casino can stay profitable. You have to eschew making rash decisions based on small sample sizes and trust that the numbers will win out over the long term.

This team does the opposite, they double down on low yield plays because they think they are smarter than everyone else.

The results speak for themselves.
 
Chiarelli, Holland, Bowman. The Oilers are so desperate, it seems they're going to hire anyone who's won a Stanley Cup at this point.
 

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