Minnesota Wild General Discussion - 2023-24

[MNRube]

Rossi's points:

1. Rossi (Foligno, Faber) 10/14
2. Rossi (Hartman, Middleton) 10/24
3. Foligno (Johansson, Rossi) 10/26
4. Rossi (Foligno, Johansson) 10/27
5. Rossi (Boldy, Brodin) 11/2
6. Middleton (Boldy, Rossi) 11/2
7. Rossi (Kaprizov, Boldy) 11/4
8. Letteri (Rossi, Brodin) 11/12
9. Rossi (Faber, Zuccarello) 11/18
10. Merrill (Rossi, Zuccarello) 11/19
11.Kaprizov (Rossi) 11/24
12. Dewar (Duhaime, Rossi) 11/30
13. Rossi (Faber, Zuccarello) 12/3
14. Rossi (Gaudreau, Faber) 12/3
15. Kaprizov (Rossi, Zuccarello) 12/5
16. Rossi (Zuccarello) 12/10
17. Rossi (Goligoski, Johansson) 12/14
18. Hartman (Rossi) 12/19
19. Boldy (Kaprizov, Rossi) 12/21
20. Rossi (Bogosian, Foligno) 12/21
21. Faber (Kaprizov, Rossi) 12/21
22. Johansson (Rossi) 12/27
23. Maroon (Petan, Rossi) 1/2
24. Rossi (Boldy, Faber) 1/6
25. Rossi (Middleton, Kaprizov) 1/18
26. Middleton (Rossi, Zuccarello) 1/18
27. Kaprizov (Goligoski, Rossi) 1/21
28. Faber (Zuccarello, Rossi) 1/23
29. Rossi (Boldy, Faber) 2/12
30. Chisholm (Johansson, Rossi) 2/17
31. Rossi (Lucchini, Lettieri) 2/19
32. Rossi (Chisholm, Gaudreau) 2/20
33. Rossi (Kaprizov) 2/20
34. Bogosian (Rossi, Brodin) 3/14
35. Rossi (Kaprizov) 3/16
36. Rossi (Kaprizov) 3/23
37. Rossi (Zuccarello, Kaprizov) 3/23
38. Rossi (Zuccarello, Kaprizov) 4/7
39. Boldy (Rossi, Faber) 4/15
40. Kaprizov (Rossi, Middleton) 4/15

13/40 points Kap played a direct part in. 7 before Feb 7th and 6 after. I'm willing to bet that a much larger portion of Eriksson Ek's and Boldy's points have Kaprizov as a direct contributor.

I think this shows that Johansson/Zuccarello are terrible options for Rossi. Hartman with Rossi yields some pretty nice underlying numbers. Same with Foligno.

Elite research & posting here. I don’t hate Foligno/Rossi/Hartman as a 2nd line

 

[57special]

Elite research & posting here. I don’t hate Foligno/Rossi/Hartman as a 2nd line

I'd have to see how it works on ice, but I think you need a bit more skill. Hartman, and especially Foligno, are average at best puck handlers, and will tend to kill plays. Good physicality, and forechecking, but mediocre with the puck.

Rossi was drafted as a point scoring C, and did the same in the AHL. He is OK defensively, but his main strength is as an offensive player. Playing him on, essentially, a checking line, seems to be poor usage of his skills.

If Ohgren pans out he might be a good fit on that line replacing one of Hartman/Foligno.

Damn, just realized that I was making a good argument for putting Zucc on Rossi's line.

 

[BagHead]

This is the statistically inaccurate statement you made. This is what I was responding too. Zucc was on Rossi's wing just as much prior to Feb 7th as he was after this date. I then pointed out the difference is that Kap is no longer carrying those 2. The thing that changed was Kaprizov wasn't lon a line with them near as much.

You've moved the goalposts from that statement.

Just as an FYI Kap was on the ice for each of these Rossi points.
5, 6, 9, 10, 13, 20, 26, 28, 32, 39

So it's really more like 13p and 4p all situations split without Kap. 17p without Kap on the ice, 23p with Kap on the ice for the season. Rossi had 28p Feb 7th.

So all situations: 13 of his 28p came w/o Kap before the split. 4 or his 12p after the split were w/o Kap.

13p in 465 mins (1.68 p/60) w/o Kap, 15p in 357 mins (2.5 p/60) w/Kap
4p in 374 mins (0.65 p/60) w/o Kap, 8p in 175 mins (2.76 p/60) w/Kap

It was the step down from Kap to MarJo that killed Rossi + Zucc line 5v5 in the 2nd half. Rossi + Zucc w/o MarJo was just under 3gf/60 (9g in 182 mins). Add in MarJo and it dropped to just over 0.5gf/60 (1g in 108 mins). Rossi + Zucc w/o Kap or MarJo was still a decent 2.13 gf/60 (3gf in 84 mins). That MarJo/Rossi/Zucc line just did not mix well at all.

Very interesting. So, if a single player is to blame (and the truth is never THAT clean) it's Johansson. In effect, all we can really take from the numbers is that Johansson-Rossi-Zuccarello is a bad line and Kaprizov-Rossi-Zuccarello is an alright line, which are things we already knew. I'm willing to bet every single player's numbers are better with Kaprizov on their line.

How many of the points were without Zuccarello on his (Rossi's) line? That would be the more important metric if we're trying to figure out how much Zuccarello affected his offense.

 

[Digitalbooya]

This is the statistically inaccurate statement you made. This is what I was responding too. Zucc was on Rossi's wing just as much prior to Feb 7th as he was after this date. I then pointed out the difference is that Kap is no longer carrying those 2. The thing that changed was Kaprizov wasn't lon a line with them near as much.

You've moved the goalposts from that statement.

Just as an FYI Kap was on the ice for each of these Rossi points.
5, 6, 9, 10, 13, 20, 26, 28, 32, 39

So it's really more like 13p and 4p all situations split without Kap. 17p without Kap on the ice, 23p with Kap on the ice for the season. Rossi had 28p Feb 7th.

So all situations: 13 of his 28p came w/o Kap before the split. 4 or his 12p after the split were w/o Kap.

13p in 465 mins (1.68 p/60) w/o Kap, 15p in 357 mins (2.5 p/60) w/Kap
4p in 374 mins (0.65 p/60) w/o Kap, 8p in 175 mins (2.76 p/60) w/Kap

It was the step down from Kap to MarJo that killed Rossi + Zucc line 5v5 in the 2nd half. Rossi + Zucc w/o MarJo was just under 3gf/60 (9g in 182 mins). Add in MarJo and it dropped to just over 0.5gf/60 (1g in 108 mins). Rossi + Zucc w/o Kap or MarJo was still a decent 2.13 gf/60 (3gf in 84 mins). That MarJo/Rossi/Zucc line just did not mix well at all.

Which is truly bizarre when you look at the underlying numbers on and after Feb 7th.

Kap-Rossi-Zucc had less than 50% for fenwick for %, shots for %, and expected goals for %. But they had a positive goal differential and a 50%+ corsi for %.

Rossi-Zucc without Kaprizov had over 50% for corsi for %, fenwick for %, shots for %, and expected goals for %. Yet had a sub 40 % goals for %.

Rossi-Kap without Zucc is better than Zucc-Kap without Rossi in all of the categories except goals for %.

Where does one find the on the ice for xyz points that Rossi scored (where Kap was on the ice but didn’t register a point)?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Does the situation with Gauthier and now McGroarty influence your opinion on taking guys out of the NCAA or USNTDP? It's practically a loophole at this point to be able to choose your team and guarantee an NHL spot within four years (even a guy like McBain was able to do this).

Not really, yet.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Does the situation with Gauthier and now McGroarty influence your opinion on taking guys out of the NCAA or USNTDP? It's practically a loophole at this point to be able to choose your team and guarantee an NHL spot within four years (even a guy like McBain was able to do this).

It doesn’t bother me, especially if teams are able to get good deals for the players when then are forced to trade them. Using your recent offer of 13 + 45 as an example, that’s nothing to slouch at for the former 14th overall pick.

 

[57special]

Most talented players are not willing waste one or two NHL years just so they can go to a situation that may or not may not work for them in the long run. Players want to play at the highest level, ASAP. McBain was a different story. A 2nd rounder, who, in the end netted us a 2nd rounder when he decided not to sign. A small setback, but that's about it.

I wonder if the Jets might've gone a bit too old school in negotiations. It's not like McGroarty didn't have a vg year. They could've at least promised him some NHL games - would playing him 10 times x 10 minutes/game have been so hard?

 

[Wabit]

Which is truly bizarre when you look at the underlying numbers on and after Feb 7th.

Kap-Rossi-Zucc had less than 50% for fenwick for %, shots for %, and expected goals for %. But they had a positive goal differential and a 50%+ corsi for %.

Rossi-Zucc without Kaprizov had over 50% for corsi for %, fenwick for %, shots for %, and expected goals for %. Yet had a sub 40 % goals for %.

Rossi-Kap without Zucc is better than Zucc-Kap without Rossi in all of the categories except goals for %.

Where does one find the on the ice for xyz points that Rossi scored (where Kap was on the ice but didn’t register a point)?

I watched the videos of the goals. The game highlights are still on the wild.com schedule calendar.

The HDCF% and SCF% are what I look at. corsi and fenwick are just shots/attempts raw numbers without any quality context. xG stats I don't put much weight into, it's more of a +/- quality stat for me. I look at the SC and HDSC with the more weight. The actual numbers that ended up on the scoreboard get the most weight from me.

 

[Wabit]

Very interesting. So, if a single player is to blame (and the truth is never THAT clean) it's Johansson. In effect, all we can really take from the numbers is that Johansson-Rossi-Zuccarello is a bad line and Kaprizov-Rossi-Zuccarello is an alright line, which are things we already knew. I'm willing to bet every single player's numbers are better with Kaprizov on their line.

How many of the points were without Zuccarello on his (Rossi's) line? That would be the more important metric if we're trying to figure out how much Zuccarello affected his offense.

I'm not going back and watching every point.

5v5 Rossi w/ Zucc 24 GF, Rossi w/o Zucc 20GF. Rossi had a point in 75% of the oiGF, so simple math would be roughly half of his 33p, so ~17p,

I'd feel confidant in saying roughly half of Rossi's total points came with Zucc on the ice.

 

[f7ben]

I would make any moves necessary not involving the following players in order to land Snuggy and Mcgroarty.

Boldy
Rossi
Faber
Yurov

 

[Digitalbooya]

For Rossi’s goals, Zucc was on for 9 of the 21. This number was 5 of 17 and then Zucc was on for each of the last 4 goals he scored.

 

[MNRube]

Boldy-JEE-Kap
Ohgren-Rossi-Hartman
Foligno-Marat-Zucc
Mojo-Freddy-??

Brodin-Faber
Middleton-Spurgeon
Chisholm-Bogosian

I doubt they put Mojo on 4th, but I think he needs to have a short leash after last year. I like Zucc & Rossi on separate lines because their size issues aren’t compounding on one unit that will get manhandled and it spreads out the skill a bit. I think that 3rd pair gets exposed big time and I hope they either split up Brodin, Faber & Spurgeon or add a veteran.

 

[BagHead]

I'm not going back and watching every point.

5v5 Rossi w/ Zucc 24 GF, Rossi w/o Zucc 20GF. Rossi had a point in 75% of the oiGF, so simple math would be roughly half of his 33p, so ~17p,

I'd feel confidant in saying roughly half of Rossi's total points came with Zucc on the ice.

Nor do I expect you to. What Digitalbooya did was a lot of work, I'm certain.

Looking at DobberSports, it's clear that Zuccarello and Rossi were mostly attached at the hip this season, so it's hard to really pull their performances apart from each other. The best we've got is:

Johansson - Rossi - Hartman = 9 points in 86:19 TOI
Johansson - Rossi - Zuccarello = 9 points in 148:14 TOI

That makes it look like Zuccarello is a problem for Rossi's offense, but the sample size of the Hartman line is so small I don't feel like I can really draw a conclusion from it. Rossi's average TOI was 16:44, so his time with that Hartman line equates to roughly 5 games and one half of a period together. 9 points in just over 5 games is a lot, so they may have just gotten lucky a few times.

 

[Wabit]

Boldy-JEE-Kap
Ohgren-Rossi-Hartman
Foligno-Marat-Zucc
Mojo-Freddy-??

Brodin-Faber
Middleton-Spurgeon
Chisholm-Bogosian

I doubt they put Mojo on 4th, but I think he needs to have a short leash after last year. I like Zucc & Rossi on separate lines because their size issues aren’t compounding on one unit that will get manhandled and it spreads out the skill a bit. I think that 3rd pair gets exposed big time and I hope they either split up Brodin, Faber & Spurgeon or add a veteran.

So put Zucc with an even smaller and less skilled center than Rossi in Marat K?

 

[MNRube]

So put Zucc with an even smaller and less skilled center than Rossi in Marat K?

It’s an imperfect situation but I’d hate to see Rossi-Zucc. They aren’t good together unless they have 97 with them. Plus it adds a little scoring pop to the 3rd line having Zucc there. Prioritizing the development of the young C over the ancient W is just smart. Whatever line Zucc is on is going to struggle 5v5 unless he has 97. Giving him two solid defensive player mitigates the damage. I’d put him on the 4th line if I could. He’s awful 5v5 without his buddy

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It Kap likes him so much, just put him back with Kap. f*** it, let him keep carrying him.

Kap - Ek - Zucc
Boldy - Rossi - Hartman
Ohgren - Khusnuts/UFA - Mojo
Foligno - UFA/Khusnuts - Gaudreau

 

[MNRube]

It Kap likes him so much, just put him back with Kap. f*** it, let him keep carrying him.

Kap - Ek - Zucc
Boldy - Rossi - Hartman
Ohgren - Khusnuts/UFA - Mojo
Foligno - UFA/Khusnuts - Gaudreau

I like that lineup, but theit shtick is predictable 5v5 and lately they revert to the lazy pond hockey style. I think Kap the 2nd half of the year was playing shackle-free hockey and that’s why his scoring exploded. But I also am just not a Zucc guy. I think he’s a liability despite his gaudy assist totals

 

[Sweetnut]

I like that lineup, but theit shtick is predictable 5v5 and lately they revert to the lazy pond hockey style. I think Kap the 2nd half of the year was playing shackle-free hockey and that’s why his scoring exploded. But I also am just not a Zucc guy. I think he’s a liability despite his gaudy assist totals

The amount of turnovers from his predictable style is a big reason why the goalie's numbers were worse this year.
Put him on the fourth line and let him play PP.
Problem solved.

 

[AKL]

So put Zucc with an even smaller and less skilled center than Rossi in Marat K?

This is the exact drum I've been beating about how just having Zuccarello on the roster creates problems for lines because he's not a fit with anyone besides Kaprizov and he even drags Kaprizov down. Zuccarello should have been moved or let go, not given a new contract. His game is deteriorating quickly, he wasn't a good even strength player last year, and now we have to try to shoehorn him into a top 6 spot, apparently, for the next two years?

None of this is to say Rossi is a line driver, or that Johansson isn't also terrible, but Rossi is a better player overall, especially at even strength, than Zuccarello is right now, and at least we all understand that Johansson can be moved way down the lineup or healthy scratched if need be.

I would rather spend his 4M on a middle six player who doesn't put up as many PP assists as Zuccarello, but at least contributes something to the team at even strength, even if that something is just no turnovers and physical play.

As I posted the other day, this is my best go at something that would mask Zuccarello's deficiencies without hurting offensive production too much:

Kaprizov-Rossi-Boldy
Zuccarello-Ek-Hartman
Ohgren-Khusnutdinov-Foligno
wh-oca-res

If you want to sign a middle six veteran with the 4M we have left, they can push Zuccarello, Ohgren or Foligno down the lineup, but the top six players on this team as its constructed are Kaprizov, Rossi, Boldy, Ek and Hartman. Zuccarello is a PP specialist and should still get ample PP time as long as he can still handle that.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Russo confirmed Mermis is not coming back, good news for me as I was not a fan. And some Athletic articles dropped today on the draft as well as the league wide Winger rankings. A bit surprising, but the Wild, at the moment, have the top rated Wing group on the backs of Kap and Boldy who are each considered Franchise wings in Dom’s model. It should be noted that Hartman was considered a Wing for their analysis, and unsigned players were excluded which hurt a lot of the actual top teams.

Which NHL teams need upgrades at wing? Ranking all 32 teams by current quality

Here’s how we’d rank each team’s winger depth, from best to worst, just before the offseason kicks off.

www.nytimes.com

 

[BagHead]

Russo confirmed Mermis is not coming back, good news for me as I was not a fan. And some Athletic articles dropped today on the draft as well as the league wide Winger rankings. A bit surprising, but the Wild, at the moment, have the top rated Wing group on the backs of Kap and Boldy who are each considered Franchise wings in Dom’s model. It should be noted that Hartman was considered a Wing for their analysis, and unsigned players were excluded which hurt a lot of the actual top teams.

Which NHL teams need upgrades at wing? Ranking all 32 teams by current quality

Here’s how we’d rank each team’s winger depth, from best to worst, just before the offseason kicks off.

www.nytimes.com

I read the Scott Wheeler one, and I started actually getting excited when Iginla went 9th, as it meant Sennecke, Yakemchuk, and especially Catton were all still on the board and there were only 3 teams picking before the Wild. So what happened? Of course, they were the next 3 taken and he had the Wild taking Helenius. I legitimately went "aaaaahhhh! I don't want Helenius!"

So I guess I learned my real thoughts today.

 

[Sweetnut]

Russo confirmed Mermis is not coming back, good news for me as I was not a fan. And some Athletic articles dropped today on the draft as well as the league wide Winger rankings. A bit surprising, but the Wild, at the moment, have the top rated Wing group on the backs of Kap and Boldy who are each considered Franchise wings in Dom’s model. It should be noted that Hartman was considered a Wing for their analysis, and unsigned players were excluded which hurt a lot of the actual top teams.

Which NHL teams need upgrades at wing? Ranking all 32 teams by current quality

Here’s how we’d rank each team’s winger depth, from best to worst, just before the offseason kicks off.

www.nytimes.com

Is Freddy a winger in that model? If so, of course Wild is ranked #1.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Is Freddy a winger in that model? If so, of course Wild is ranked #1.

Freddy was our 3C in their article on Centers, it was deemed a problem lol.

 

[Webster]

So Dom considers Zuccarello a first-liner, not surprised there. So we'll have a competition between Zucc and Boldy, and you know what? That's great!

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

So Dom considers Zuccarello a first-liner, not surprised there. So we'll have a competition between Zucc and Boldy, and you know what? That's great!

Good thing is that you can have more than 3 first line caliber players on your team. The will likely land on Boldy being able to drive his own line so he doesn’t play with Kaprizov.