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Minnesota Wild General Discussion - 2023-24

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Circulartheory said:
Nope - but that's why my position is generally never to go to any extreme of assumptions ie: he just got "lucky" (meaning BG gets 0% credit) to "he fleeced the LAKs, he knew just how good Faber was (100% praise). There's a happy middle ground, he traded for prospects/picks, the ones the team felt were good pieces, which are a gamble, and the gamble paid off.

His opinion on Fiala is a seperate issue - he can get blame for that, which is why I said there's a legitimate argument for that. I think also interesting argument is how much blame between BG and Evason (also mentioned in my post). But then following it up with "just lucky" on his evaluation on Faber seems a bit ... unfair. He can get blame making a trade inevitable but also get praise for identifying Faber as the piece to trade for.
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I guess it depends on how much benefit of the doubt you want to give him in general then. I don't really have any confidence in his ability to identify what a Cup winner looks like and execute, so I'm more inclined to give most of the credit to the people whose job it is to tell him about Gustavsson or Faber, or even the other GM's who traded those pieces, than I am to him. But he is the GM and he's ultimately making the final call, so he doesn't get 0 credit either.

At the same time, I think what I said stands. We know he doesn't really negotiate or try to pit teams against each other, he just takes the first deal he likes. How much of Gus was Guerin and his people saying "we want Gus", vs how much of it was Ottawa saying "we want Talbot and you can have our third string goalie because we don't want him anymore now that we're getting Talbot". How much of getting Faber was Guerin and his people saying "Faber has to be in this deal" vs how much of it was LA saying "we have Doughty and Clarke and Spence and Grans, and Faber may want to go the college UFA route anyhow". So between not knowing who the first one to bring up Gus or Faber in trade talks was, and my lack of faith in his abilities as a GM overall, I'm more inclined to give him less than 50% of the credit.

But even if he gets credit for getting Faber and Gus, it still wasn't really shrewd negotiating tactics or an elite eye for talent from Guerin himself that caused Faber and Gus to be this good this soon. They're both better than just about anyone predicted, there is a healthy amount of luck in these players becoming this, at least from the standpoint of acquiring them via trade in the manner we did. I think the proof of this is the likely fact that if everyone knew Faber was going to be this good this soon, he likely wouldn't have been traded for Fiala. Which then points us back full circle: whether you consider it more luck or not depends on your view of Guerin as a talent evaluator and as a GM.

EDIT:
Reading through the posts again, I don't think it stands to reason that saying this
Dickie Dunn said:
he got damn lucky Faber got so good so quick.
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means this:
Circulartheory said:
(meaning BG gets 0% credit)
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at all. That's a bit of a jump. You can do a fine job of acquiring a player/package that you think is fair value, and then get lucky and have it end up being better than you expected.
 
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AKL said:
I guess it depends on how much benefit of the doubt you want to give him in general then. I don't really have any confidence in his ability to identify what a Cup winner looks like and execute, so I'm more inclined to give most of the credit to the people whose job it is to tell him about Gustavsson or Faber, or even the other GM's who traded those pieces, than I am to him. But he is the GM and he's ultimately making the final call, so he doesn't get 0 credit either.

At the same time, I think what I said stands. We know he doesn't really negotiate or try to pit teams against each other, he just takes the first deal he likes. How much of Gus was Guerin and his people saying "we want Gus", vs how much of it was Ottawa saying "we want Talbot and you can have our third string goalie because we don't want him anymore now that we're getting Talbot". How much of getting Faber was Guerin and his people saying "Faber has to be in this deal" vs how much of it was LA saying "we have Doughty and Clarke and Spence and Grans, and Faber may want to go the college UFA route anyhow". So between not knowing who the first one to bring up Gus or Faber in trade talks was, and my lack of faith in his abilities as a GM overall, I'm more inclined to give him less than 50% of the credit.

But even if he gets credit for getting Faber and Gus, it still wasn't really shrewd negotiating tactics or an elite eye for talent from Guerin himself that caused Faber and Gus to be this good this soon. They're both better than just about anyone predicted, there is a healthy amount of luck in these players becoming this, at least from the standpoint of acquiring them via trade in the manner we did. I think the proof of this is the likely fact that if everyone knew Faber was going to be this good this soon, he likely wouldn't have been traded for Fiala. Which then points us back full circle: whether you consider it more luck or not depends on your view of Guerin as a talent evaluator and as a GM.

EDIT:
Reading through the posts again, I don't think it stands to reason that saying this


means this:


at all. That's a bit of a jump. You can do a fine job of acquiring a player/package that you think is fair value, and then get lucky and have it end up being better than you expected.
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Hm...honestly wasn't trying to dive too deep into the BG overall contribution to the team and truthfully, its been draining. Not a personal dig on you - I just end up always end up with creating excel tables. alot of times, we end up agreeing on overall points and it just turns into semantics. But I will just quickly sum it to try to close the loop:

I'm not one of the supporters who will say outright BG has a great eye for talent because I generally do not like that term. It puts too much emphasis on a single person ability to discover something others ppl don't. Especially with prospects/draft picks, I go into it with a bit of open-endedness, like a stock investment or a good hand in poker before the river card. You make the best decision you can on that day, you have meeting with your scouts, get coach testimony, and in terms of Faber; his team determined a 1st/Faber was the best value to get vs other offers. Then you hope for the best - and the best did happen with the speed of Faber's development. So simply, just my own personal opinion and not an opinion I hope to force others to agree: BG's team made a good decision when it said yes to a deal that included Faber/1st. Why the trade was made inevitable is a different discussion.

But I will concede I may not have deciphered the luck of acquiring a player like Faber vs the speed of Faber's development. The latter I'm sure I believe no one anticipated. But I will stay out of the greater discussion on if we have faith that BG can make a cup winner for now.
 
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AKL said it well. It depends on whether BG really wanted and believed in Faber vs Faber was the best he could do within what the Kings were willing to trade. I tend to think he got lucky. And that’s ok. I’m not criticizing him for luck, I’m criticizing him for needing luck to bail him out in that situation.
 
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A lot of stuff we don't know.

I think he handled the Fiala thing pretty terribly up until the trade, and then seemed to salvage it with a good trade. Both things can be true.

Still would prefer Snuggerud/Kulich over Ohgren, but whatever. Can't know if taking a different guy at #19 means that Yurov isn't there at #23, and I think we're all pretty happy with Yurov.
 
As much as I am not crazy about Guerin, you can't criticize some of his moves, then when they work out, call them "just lucky". I didn't like the Fiala trade, nor the whole leadup to it. but with Faber playing the way he is it's turning out to be a good deal, especially if Yurov/Ohren turn out to be decent NHL'ers.

Same with the Gus trade. Didn't like it at first, because of the circumstances surrounding it, but it's hard to argue the result(even though Talbot is playing well again in LA).

Next thing we'll find out that Andrew Heydt is evil, and tortures cats.
 
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How long do you think Kaprizov is out? I think this isn't good because it's the same spot where he got injured last year and it took time for that to recover.
 
My point isn’t criticizing the luck. It’s that to judge the job and trust the plan you can’t detach process from result. Having his ass saved from the fire by Faber isn’t the same as executing his master plan successfully.
 
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at the time of the trade i thought we should have asked for a smidge more even though fiala was in the driver seat. looking back faber is a stud and potentially dare i say better than brodin! he could be an anchor on our blueline for the next 10 years!
 
Again, don't mean to start a rant when I said I would stop but just wanted to share my receipts on the day of the trade and how I felt. Obviously, no one expected just how fast Faber would develop but I was happy when the trade because it was within the realm of possibility - so obviously I would have given management credit for making the trade, value wise.

Circulartheory said:
I like it - it never escaped the back of my mind that we were in a pinch. Every team knew we weren't going to re-sign Fiala which gives teams great leverage.

So getting a top 20 pick PLUS a top-four dman prospect on the rise which probably the best I could hope for with all that context.
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I blame myself for saying we have a 75% chance of playoffs coming into the weekend 🤦‍♂️

Dickie Dunn said:
AKL said it well. It depends on whether BG really wanted and believed in Faber vs Faber was the best he could do within what the Kings were willing to trade. I tend to think he got lucky. And that’s ok. I’m not criticizing him for luck, I’m criticizing him for needing luck to bail him out in that situation.
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I don’t think he got lucky. LA was loaded with prospects and especially with RHD. I think they identified him specifically.
 
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Digitalbooya said:
Not only that, Jesper Wallstedt is injured too. That is unreal luck.
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I guess we'll see McIntyre play a game or two.
There are 7 games over the next two weeks including a back to back.

And those two weeks could decide the season, will be harder without Gus and Kap.
 
613Hockey said:
Hartman apparently got caught on a hot mic admitting HS was intention vs. Jets?

Ryan Hartman Fined For High Sticking Incident - Dynes Pressbox
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Would you please say loudly and clearly into my chest that you would like to buy some drugs?

Kind of a worst kept secret that players intentionally do things to get even in the NHL (what does the NHL expect when it doesn't enforce its own rules?), but admitting it into a microphone is something new. Not surprised it was Hartman who did so.
 
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