Confirmed Signing with Link: [MIN] Kirill Kaprizov re-signs with the Wild (5 years, $9M AAV)

[Dr Jan Itor]

Right now I would have offered him 7x3 and if he wasn't happy I trade him. That is more than fair for what he has done.

To me if he isn't 70 pts plus every year, plus great in playoffs this is a terrible deal. Maybe he will be, not saying he won't, but I hate that players get these deals for unproven amount of work.

You're not familiar with our situation and why 3 years (or less) wasn't really an option?

 

[McShogun99]

Does it really matter if he’s slightly over paid. He’s the player that the Wild want to build around. What’s better? Paying KK a little more then he should be getting for his second contract or trading him for some picks/prospects and having to hope you find another player like KK.

 

[MuckOG]

Not to argue the list but that's definitely missing some really good seasons. Shipachov's 22 year old season where he had 60pts in 53?ish games comes to mind among others. Where did you pull that one from?

Shipachyov's 63 point season was in 2015-2016. He was 28 years old. His 22 year old season he scored 38 points

 

[AKL]

He's 34. His first point per game season in the KHL occured 12ish years ago. So he would've been 22-23 at that time.

What year do you think it is right now?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

This is a bad example. Montreal may have accepted picks for Kotkaniemi but they flipped them for player who is as of today better and who they project to stay better.

Kirill Kaprizov

 

[Sota Popinski]

I don't care what the average is. I think any player regardless of team should have to prove themselves for 2-3 years before giving them big money. Going nuts immediately is why the league is filled with insane deals.

If the Wings had given KK this deal I would still hate it, and I think Yzerman is a good GM.

Insane deals like the one Yzerman gave Hronek?

 

[PuckInTheNards]

All contracts are a risk but this is absolutely a risk worth taking, IMO. Yes, KK's sample size was small but he was legitimately the best player on the ice most nights he played. He didn't rack up secondary points or flukey goals or ride another elite player's coattails - he was the guy who drove the play night in and night out. I guess it's possible that he regresses, but no one who watched him night in and night out would predict that.

I'm a Wild fan and I'm absolutely stoked at this signing. Let's f***ing go!

 

[Zine]

Minnesota had to pay a premium to Kirill for not willing to give him a bridge deal, and it paid it. That's what deals are usually about, because there are usually two sides (at least) in them. I'm pretty sure they could sign him for something like 3 years/$7 million or even less, but they chose not.

Yea, sucks for Kaprizov he had to sign for 5 years; but he made the most out of the situation ($$$$$). Not a bad deal on his part.

 

[Al Lagoon]

Yea, sucks for Kaprizov he had to sign for 5 years; but he made the most out of the situation ($$$$$). Not a bad deal on his part.

Yeah, sucks hard to make over $100,000 for every 20 minutes or so of ice time. Poor Kirill.

 

[nbwingsfan]

As a Devils STH, I can say I really enjoyed Gusev’s first season, he’s a fun little guy, but he’s not in remotely in the same league as Kaprizov. And if you think so, I not sure how came to that conclusion.

Goose is 5 years older and while they’re both listed at 5’9”, KK is got a 20-25 lb advantage over him. And Gusev goes beyond a “non-physical” winger to more of a “non-corporeal” one.

Gusev’s first season
Hits/60 5v5 1.74
Hits/60 taken 5v5 0.74 (he’s elusive lol)

Hits/60 5v5 2.19
Hits/60 taken 5v5 4.31

And he’s a very deliberate player. And by that, I mean very slow.

He’s a cerebral, fun, creative playmaker but his 44 points in 66 games was partly due to playing with Coleman, when Blake achieved God Mode, on a line that was our defacto 1st line while Hughes, Nico and Pamieri took turns missing games with minor injuries after the Hall trade. (It wasn’t the most enjoyable season.)

Gusev also feasted a bit on a power play that shockingly roared to life at the end of the season, it had a 28% success rate in the last 21 games (with 18 PP goals scored) and he has 10 PP points (3G 7A) during that stretch.

He certainly was one of the reasons for that late success of PP in his rookie year. The next year our special teams imploded, which wasn’t his fault, but he certainly didn’t click on the PP again either.

Gusev’s shot is weak, he’s not much of a goal scorer. After shooting 12.2% on power play and 7.21% 5v5, Gusev couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. He doesn’t have strong shot and that season unfortunately he wasn’t getting within 10 feet of the net for whatever reason. Also this:

2019-20 66 games 13 goals
6 wrist shots (71 shots 8.5%)
4 snap shots (47 shots 8.5%)
3 slap shots (25 shots 12.0%)
0 back shots (9 shots 0%)
0 tips (4 shots 0%)
0 deflections (1 shot 0%)
0 wraparounds (1 shot 0%)
158 shots 8.2%

2019-20 20 GP 2 goals
1 wrist shots (20 shots 5%)
1 snap shots (20 shots 5%)
0 slap shots (3 shots 0%)
0 back shots (2 shots 0%)
0 tips (4 shots 0%)
0 deflections (0 shot -)
0 wraparounds (0 shot -)
45 shots 4.4%

I’m shocked there were 3 shots that could be described as “slap shots”. It was all weak, bad angle perimeter shots.

Kaprizov
2020-21 55 GP 27 G
16 wrist shots (91 shot 17.6%)
3 snap shots (23 shots 13.0%)
1 slap shots (9 shots 11.1%)
1 back shots (17 shots 5.9%)
2 tips (6 shots 33.3%)
2 deflections (5 shot 40.0%)
2 wraparounds (6 shot 33.3%)
157 shots 17.2%
The dude is a filthy sniper with a wicked wrist shot that is not some grand mystery here.

Kaprizov scored 20 goals in 49 KHL games when he was 19. He scored 30 goals in 57 KHL games when he was 21 and 33 goals in 57 KHL games when he was 22.

Gusev career high in the KHL was 24 goals in 57 games at age 24.

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So I’m seeing a different approach to shooting

I’m going into some detail because “Gusev is Russian, he did things and he was bought out, hmmm?” is such a horse shit lazy ass take. They aren’t similar players and Gusev’s flaws were apparent before he came to the NHL. He was a riskier, older player, which is why he got traded for a 2021 2nd and 2020 3rd in the first place to a desperate team in a dumb trade.

And saying “small sample size” doesn’t make it your point sound more “statistical”. There are ways to analyze his performance, he’s not a mystery box or prospect with upside they’re taking a flyer on.

Wild fans keep repeatedly saying that he squeezed the team, so no expects this to be a value contract. Evolving Wild had his 5 year deal at 7.789m. There really isn’t much else to discuss, because you’re “his current production better not drop” is based on empty doom and gloom. His wrist can shatter! He can get by bus! IT’S A MASSIVE RISK!

That’s a whole lot of words for nothing. No player has got this kind of contract after this little experience. You want me to name how many players started strong and then their player never improved or dropped off? How about how many players dropped off after getting a massive contract? Kaprizov now has both.

I’m not saying it will happen or it’s even likely to happen, but this a pretty ludicrous contract almost any way you try and frame it. Much more likely this doesn’t work out than it does.

Also never compared Gusev and Kap as players. Just compared their production when in the KHL in response to one poster justifying this contract based on his KHL performance. The devils also tried that and failed miserably

 

[rynryn]

It's truly heartwarming to see this outpouring of concern.

 

[McVespa99]

But...he doesn't want to play in Minnesota.

Clearly.

A NTC is not about wanting to stay somewhere. Its about having control

 

[Guttersniped]

That’s a whole lot of words for nothing. No player has got this kind of contract after this little experience. You want me to name how many players started strong and then their player never improved or dropped off? How about how many players dropped off after getting a massive contract? Kaprizov now has both.

I’m not saying it will happen or it’s even likely to happen, but this a pretty ludicrous contract almost any way you try and frame it. Much more likely this doesn’t work out than it does.

Also never compared Gusev and Kap as players. Just compared their production when in the KHL in response to one poster justifying this contract based on his KHL performance. The devils also tried that and failed miserably

Their KHL production isn’t comparable by age either. Pretending you have some sort of statistical analysis doesn’t mean you actually have any.

And again, amorphous references to vague generic “players who dropped off” doesn’t mean anything. It’s empty handwringing, not analysis unless you pony up specific comparisons.

edit: And if people want an example of a sort of disappointing Russian sniper, it’s Semin, if it will make people happy, but he’s not exact comparable. Better than Gusev though (who you clearly thought was a functional comparable).

 

[Al Lagoon]

A NTC is not about wanting to stay somewhere. Its about having control

Good lord the privilege we accord these athletes! I would love to have control over my employers. Crazy!

 

[Chrisinroch]

And what if I really like watching him play for my favorite team and don't want to trade him over a $600-$800k excess cap hit?

$1.16MM extra according to Evolving Hockey, but still your point is correct. KK was worth more to the Wild than he was to any other team in the league. Wild have not had a player like this since Gaborik. You cannot let him walk in two years, and they sure as hell cannot trade him. That’s absurd.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Their KHL production isn’t comparable by age either. Pretending you have some sort of statistical analysis doesn’t mean you actually have any.

And again, amorphous references to vague generic “players who dropped off” doesn’t mean anything. It’s empty handwringing, not analysis unless you pony up specific comparisons.

edit: And if people want an example of a sort of disappointing Russian sniper, it’s Semin, if it will make people happy, but he’s not exact comparable. Better than Gusev though (who you clearly thought was a functional comparable).

Gusev is a functional comparable no matter how you slice it.

No he wasn’t as good in the KHL at the same age, but did explode soon after once he was traded and NJ based their expectations on his KHL performance. He also had a good (not great) first season and then dropped off dramatically. I’m not comparing them skill wise, I’m comparing their situations.

Are you really trying to state there’s no way that a guy with 55 regular season games may not have enough sample for us to know what he really is, and there’s no chance he won’t drop off or remain the same? Interesting theory.

 

[Nsjohnson]

Elite Prospects - KHL Stats 2020-2021

Here are the scoring leaders for this past season in the KHL. LONG list of failed NHLers at the top if that list.

In his seasons in the KHL he finished 3rd, 11th, 22nd, 23rd, 98th and he was not in the top 100 in his first year...each of those seasons he was behind failed NHL guys.....

KHL success means jack sh*t

Your logic is very flawed. He did it all U23.

He did it as a teen, and a young 20 something.

He is in rare fraternity.

Sorry, you're wrong man.

 

[PM88RU]

I'm actually quite surprised that has stretched for more than 20 pages already.

MIN had to consider all of KK previous experience in order to define a tier he belongs to. That is how the price is defined. If the case is quite unusual, then that it will just take more efforts and time to analyze. BG has an analytics team who got paid for that.

It seems that the most of those who post here have never ever tried to analyze more than few metrics and can base opinion on NHL experience only.

If you're not able to consider something beyond your frames, at least let others have their opinion and don't pretend your opinion is the most well-grounded one.

The thread does contain some quality analytics content and comparisons, kudos to those who posted that.

 

[Ducks in a row]

NHL career

51 points in 55 regular season games
3 points in 7 playoff games

5 years at 9 million cap hit per year. That is just crazy.

 

[Guttersniped]

Gusev is a functional comparable no matter how you slice it.

No he wasn’t as good in the KHL at the same age, but did explode soon after once he was traded and NJ based their expectations on his KHL performance. He also had a good (not great) first season and then dropped off dramatically. I’m not comparing them skill wise, I’m comparing their situations.

Are you really trying to state there’s no way that a guy with 55 regular season games may not have enough sample for us to know what he really is, and there’s no chance he won’t drop off or remain the same? Interesting theory.

You suggested that there’s some mysterious threat that he’s going to plunge off the face of the earth. It’s your prognostications that are a problem here. That and you comparing to Gusev, which is terrible comparison.

“Wasn’t as good at an early age in the KHL” is putting it mildly. I didn’t know that 44 points in 66 games is the same as 51 points in 55 games. And there’s no other statistical information or performance-related judgement that allows you differentiate between the two players. Good eye for hockey and real enthusiasm for advanced stats there.

I didn’t say he couldn’t stay roughly a PPG player, I don’t know what his ceiling. I have that much thought into it. But he’s clearly an elite scorer. It’s tough with his current supporting cast, Zuccarello is a drag more than anything and Rask just sort of exists. If Boldy or Rossi can get there sooner than than later that should help a lot.

This will just endlessly be you discounting how good this guy is and me being testy about it. He’s exceptional, even if the contract may be a bit too hefty.

 

[Oddbob]

Insane deals like the one Yzerman gave Hronek?

A 3 year deal for 4.4 is insane for a top 4 defender? Sounds more like what that level defender goes for.

 

[supsens]

Their KHL production isn’t comparable by age either. Pretending you have some sort of statistical analysis doesn’t mean you actually have any.

And again, amorphous references to vague generic “players who dropped off” doesn’t mean anything. It’s empty handwringing, not analysis unless you pony up specific comparisons.

edit: And if people want an example of a sort of disappointing Russian sniper, it’s Semin, if it will make people happy, but he’s not exact comparable. Better than Gusev though (who you clearly thought was a functional comparable).

He might turn out just great, he might get tired of being the target after 90 games and really slow down. I would say far more people have had one big year than many big years

 

[Beesfan]

I don't mind the cap hit so much as the term. At 9m per year, the Wild should have got at least one more year on that contract.

In any event, this is better than just letting go of him.

 

[nbwingsfan]

You suggested that there’s some mysterious threat that he’s going to plunge off the face of the earth. It’s your prognostications that are a problem here. That and you comparing to Gusev, which is terrible comparison.

“Wasn’t as good at an early age in the KHL” is putting it mildly. I didn’t know that 44 points in 66 games is the same as 51 points in 55 games. And there’s no other statistical information or performance-related judgement that allows you differentiate between the two players. Good eye for hockey and real enthusiasm for advanced stats there.

I didn’t say he couldn’t stay roughly a PPG player, I don’t know what his ceiling. I have that much thought into it. But he’s clearly an elite scorer. It’s tough with his current supporting cast, Zuccarello is a drag more than anything and Rask just sort of exists. If Boldy or Rossi can get there sooner than than later that should help a lot.

This will just endlessly be you discounting how good this guy is and me being testy about it. He’s exceptional, even if the contract may be a bit too hefty.

He’s been exceptional (a bit of an exaggeration) for 55 games. Apparently that is worth $45M now.

 

[Sota Popinski]

A 3 year deal for 4.4 is insane for a top 4 defender? Sounds more like what that level defender goes for.

Hronek is only a top 4 defender on one of the worst teams in the league. His metrics are awful. But I guess since he's on your team and Yzerman signed it, it's a market value deal. In his case one good year followed by two awful ones and it's ok to pay him based on the first, because he's played 3 years after all. But Kaprizov has one fantastic year and to pay him based on that is insane. Do you see the disconnect there?