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Player Discussion: Mikhail Sergachev - Part 2

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It's a shame, I thought he was turning it around towards the end of the Rangers series. His puck management woes continue to haunt him.
 
JTBF81 said:
He's not worth overpaying, which would then result in sacrificing other key pieces in order to keep him. The return for him in either NHL ready young guys/roster players and/or futures would be considerable as well. If he's willing to work with the team to stay, great. Keeping him already means Palat and Killorn are likely gone, and overpaying him means losing one of Cirelli or Cernak as well(or having to run even more elc/min level replacement types than they already will). Serg isn't worth that kind of "sacrifice" elsewhere.
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I'm not a fan of trading players the year before a contract year. Let's see what he does when his financial motivation is at its highest. If he plays his way into a bigger contract this year, his trade value will be higher. Ironically, this would align with what we did with the Drouin trade.
 
Didn't like the blind whack up the middle of the ice on the OT goal. I'm sure he was trying to spring a rush the other way but we got to where we are by not taking those unnecessary risks.

Bad decision. It happens. Not going to crucify the kid over it.
 
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The Macho King said:
Didn't like the blind whack up the middle of the ice on the OT goal. I'm sure he was trying to spring a rush the other way but we got to where we are by not taking those unnecessary risks.

Bad decision. It happens. Not going to crucify the kid over it.
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right, lets just forget that hedman turns it over first with a poor clear, and then it lands a foot away from serge who is pressured. also hedman is so far out of position that he isn't even on the camera.

nope cant allow that because it ruins the narrative of the people here that watch the games but dont understand hockey

also stamkos didnt cover the trailer GWG scorer. but yeah, its serge.
 
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Five Alarm Fire said:
I'm not a fan of trading players the year before a contract year. Let's see what he does when his financial motivation is at its highest. If he plays his way into a bigger contract this year, his trade value will be higher. Ironically, this would align with what we did with the Drouin trade.
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Oh I agree with not moving him now. It's possible that Brisebois may attempt to extend the main rfas this Summer(he has taken this route before I believe). I think if Palat re-signs and they trade Killorn this off-season, it will signal that at least one of Serg/Cirelli/Cernak(probably in that order), is getting traded after next year though.
 
JTBF81 said:
He's not worth overpaying, which would then result in sacrificing other key pieces in order to keep him. The return for him in either NHL ready young guys/roster players and/or futures would be considerable as well. If he's willing to work with the team to stay, great. Keeping him already means Palat and Killorn are likely gone, and overpaying him means losing one of Cirelli or Cernak as well(or having to run even more elc/min level replacement types than they already will). Serg isn't worth that kind of "sacrifice" elsewhere.
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Okay now explain the part where we have to find someone to play 20 minutes a night
 
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LTIR Trickery said:
Okay now explain the part where we have to find someone to play 20 minutes a night
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Finding a 3LD isn't a problem. As long as the team feels Hedman and McD are still top 4 capable for another few years, it's fine. If Tampa could acquire a top 4 caliber RD in a Serg trade, even better. There are plenty of roster configurations for after next year that have a pretty weak looking F group after the main 4(plus maybe Hagel and Paul, if he's kept), because the team gave a dman too much money. If Serg takes 8 years at 6.25, great, Tampa can probably make that work. If 50 million isn't enough, then get 3 quality assets for him next year(likely a cheaper roster player, a high end prospect that's ready/has made their NHL debut, and a pick). If he was at the level of a Fox or Makar in terms of young defenseman, than sure, pay him and sacrifice elsewhere. He shows glimpses of that level, but is far too inconsistent to pay high end dmen numbers. He may be able to get 7+ from someone, but it shouldn't be Tampa based on his level of play as of now.
 
These Are The Days said:
Well it's not like we would not have well over $4 million to spare in doing it.
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Find me 20 minute guys that somehow make less than 4 million that'll be available in free agency, i'll wait

hint: they won't exist and/or they won't be making 4 million

JTBF81 said:
Finding a 3LD isn't a problem. As long as the team feels Hedman and McD are still top 4 capable for another few years, it's fine. If Tampa could acquire a top 4 caliber RD in a Serg trade, even better. There are plenty of roster configurations for after next year that have a pretty weak looking F group after the main 4(plus maybe Hagel and Paul, if he's kept), because the team gave a dman too much money. If Serg takes 8 years at 6.25, great, Tampa can probably make that work. If 50 million isn't enough, then get 3 quality assets for him next year(likely a cheaper roster player, a high end prospect that's ready/has made their NHL debut, and a pick). If he was at the level of a Fox or Makar in terms of young defenseman, than sure, pay him and sacrifice elsewhere. He shows glimpses of that level, but is far too inconsistent to pay high end dmen numbers. He may be able to get 7+ from someone, but it shouldn't be Tampa based on his level of play as of now.
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You don't actually believe you'd get 3 blue chip prospects for the rights to Sergachev do you? And they certainly won't dump him at the deadline.
 
LTIR Trickery said:
Find me 20 minute guys that somehow make less than 4 million that'll be available in free agency, i'll wait

hint: they won't exist and/or they won't be making 4 million


You don't actually believe you'd get 3 blue chip prospects for the rights to Sergachev do you? And they certainly won't dump him at the deadline.
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Since they will still be rfa rights he'll have more value than if he was ufa. Maybe they won't get 3 nice assets at that time without adding, but should get at least 2. 3-4 million is plenty to find a solid 3LD for the next few years as well. Go ahead and try to make a decent looking F group for 23-24 after paying Serg a ludicrous contract and also keeping Cirelli and Cernak(not even mentioning Colton and Foote needing raises). Hint, you won't. This is a reason that JBB, if he's negotiating new deals this Summer, should consider moving Serg then if it seems as though he wants a laughable number. Maximize the return now which saves cap room for when things will get tough, adds a quality F or D, and helps replenish the cupboards a bit.
 
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LTIR Trickery said:
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At this point you're pretty much banking on someone from Syracuse to come up by the end of next year. That or McDonagh is moved (hypothetically) and Sergachev is the #2 at that point. To have the backend tied up with Hedman, McDonagh, two cheap depth 6/7s let's say and the potential raises to Cernak (5M?) and Sergachev (6M?) Is hefty. It is still a legit top 4, proven of 2 cups, etc but at the possible expense of not being able to deepen the forward group.

It's too far out to tell because we still have a final and another year. If we lose now and next year is no cup (we have to lose eventually...) then we may see McDonagh moved even though I think he's still worth having here - no questions asked. Issue is the figure both Cirelli and Cernak will demand, any potential offer sheets (unlikely), and how they do next year. For me, cirelli is incredibly important for us defensively but if we lost Cernak, our right side is paper thin.

This next wave of retooling or whatever you can call it, will really be important as I think we still have another 3-5 years left of a window. Easily.
 
For the '23-'24 season, Tampa has under contract 6 F, 3 D and 1 G. With another likely cap increase of 1 whole million, Tampa will need to sign 12 more players with 27.767 million in cap space, provided no moves are made with any of the above mentioned signed players. The 5 main rfas are going to eat a majority of this, as between Serg, Cirelli, Cernak, Colton and Foote, at least 20.5 to 21.5 million will be needed. I'm going with 6.25 for Serg, 6 for Cirelli. 4.5 for Cernak, 3 for Colton and 1.5-2 for Foote. Even if some of these numbers come in a little lower, it's at least 20 million for them. That leaves 6.25-7.75 for 7 additional players. A backup will be 800k-900k, so 5.35-6.95 left for 6 skaters, 5 F and 1 dman.

Rutta is likely gone if Paul is kept, so then likely either Perbix or maybe Thompson is in on an elc deal of 800-900k, so with Paul around 3 aav let's say, 1.45-3.05 left. 4 forwards to go, and here's where Tampa will need at least 2 Syracuse players to have made the jump and contribute, whether it's ABB,Koepke, Fortier, Ryfors, maybe Nash if he's stuck around, but somebody. Maybe one of Perry or PEB is kept as well, but that seems less likely perhaps due to age. Even if that takes up 3 spots using ~2.5 of what's left. that leaves Tampa with maybe just enough for 1 additional F(or 2 if neither PEB or.Perry is kept) making close to league minimum(based on exact numbers of the other contracts), but it is a tight squeeze.

All that being said, there is no room to back a brinks truck up for Sergachev. If he will take in the 6 or just a little more range, fine. Unless Cirelli or Cernak takes even less than what I have them at(probably even less than what they could get), that's as much as they should have for Serg. The same principle holds true for the other rfa's, but Cirelli and Cernak are more needed based on their positions, unless.Tampa wants to move Sergachev to RD going forward. Tampa can make a 21 player roster work fine with the numbers from above, while 22 is iffy and 23 out of the question.
 
Sergy has been a bit of a up and down in terms of play this year, but giving away a mobile 23 y/o Dman that can play both LD and RD when needed, that will still improve a lot in the next years would be counterproductive to say the least.

Dmen tend to take longer to reach their potential, I'm pretty sure if we end up sending him off we'll regret it.
 
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He is young and not fully developed. Long successful career ahead.
We made a lot of errors in that game. We we’re damn lucky to have a chance in OT. I hope we can clean up a lot for game 2.
 
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More 2004 said:
Yikes guys.. we gotta keep this kid IMO
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If he works with the team and takes 6 or just over, I agree. He is not worth more and there's no projected money for the team to cave to him if he asks for 7+. Losing multiple other pieces to overpay him is a bad move. Hopefully all 3.top rfa's work with the team, or.they do another short contract with Serg (and others if needed), to try and keep them for another 2-3 years until.the cap isn't as.big of a problem.
 
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