Value of: Michkov to Chicago

[SaintMorose]

Korchinski
Allan
2024 1st (becomes 2024 1st and 2025 first if '24 pick fails to win lottery)

I think would make an interesting offer

not sure the Flyers bother without receiving close to double what the pick to draft Michkov was worth, and at that point why do from a Chicago perspective

 

[Crazy8oooo]

You’re not hearing. He fell to 7 for a reason, there were players selected before him who are absolutely not considered potential superstars, and his market value today isn’t above those players. The risks are still there, and whatever his value was three months ago is his value today.

I’m hearing what you’re saying and I disagree. Those factors change as time passes.

•The top 4 picks were all players who were potential superstar talents and were not worth passing on with the risks/wait surrounding Michkov. (This won’t be the case moving forward where you may only have 1 or 2 players that are worthy of passing him for). Montreal and AZ both went D and may not have wanted a forward or to wait 3 years for him to play out his contract.

•Any draft picks that would be exchanged at this point will now only be a 2 year or less difference in wait time opposed to 3 years.

•He’s showing that his talent is exactly as advertised by being a ppg in the KHL thus far. This, alone, will continue to up his value if he continues being this good at his age.

Again, you may view him as a #7 valued draft pick but you’re ignoring all of the factors that made him a #7 and why those factors have begun and will continue to diminish as time is passing.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

You’re not hearing. He fell to 7 for a reason, there were players selected before him who are absolutely not considered potential superstars, and his market value today isn’t above those players. The risks are still there, and whatever his value was three months ago is his value today.

It's clear as day why he fell to 7. Why are we acting like this is a mystery? It's childish to ignore the obvious reason.

You're arguing the Flyers' point as to why it makes no sense to trade him to Chicago. There's literally nothing to talk about unless you're willing to trade assets as you would for a potential superstar - because that's what Michkov's ceiling is. His ceiling is 2nd highest in the draft, but he's from Russia with a KHL contract to navigate.

That's it. That's the whole beginning and end.

 

[hawksrule]

Disagree here. MM has more value today than lets say Simashev picked at 6. Simashev is a d with 1 pt in 18 games. Nothing wrong with that but no buzz like at all.

I doubt Simachev comes next year, he might come over same year as MM without his potential impact.

picks 1-4 are not controversial.
But 5-6 are. At that point you take MM or you trade down a few spots with a nice sweetener to « benefit » from the MM buzz and not having to deal with the KHL contract problem.

Free market spoke three months ago. That’s the only data point we have. Nothing substantive has changed.

But we’re nitpicking. If you want to claim his value is slightly higher, whatever, but what I’m disputing is the repeated notion that he carries the trade value of a potential superstar who is free of the risks from a few months ago, as if they’re no longer there. If that was his value now, it would’ve been his value then.

 

[wmupreds]

Free market spoke three months ago. That’s the only data point we have. Nothing substantive has changed.

But we’re nitpicking. If you want to claim his value is slightly higher, whatever, but what I’m disputing is the repeated notion that he carries the trade value of a potential superstar who is free of the risks from a few months ago, as if they’re no longer there. If that was his value now, it would’ve been his value then.

It was stupid that he fell as far as he did, and Philly's opinion of him is that of a future superstar. That's the only opinion that matters here, your pedantry aside.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Free market spoke three months ago. That’s the only data point we have. Nothing substantive has changed.

But we’re nitpicking. If you want to claim his value is slightly higher, whatever, but what I’m disputing is the repeated notion that he carries the trade value of a potential superstar who is free of the risks from a few months ago, as if they’re no longer there. If that was his value now, it would’ve been his value then.

Players are valued differently from team to team. We consistently see this happen. Teams draft players too high vs. consensus & teams pay too much for certain players. Happens all the time.

You are letting 6 teams dictate his value for the rest of the NHL. That's absurd. But ultimately, if the Flyers see him as a future superstar, they reasonably want superstar compensation in return. If CHI sees him as a 2nd liner, they'd expect to give up 2nd line compensation. Both are equally valid and true.

However let's not pretend there's a universal, measurable value for a highly touted, recently drafted prospect. That's just not reality; it's fantasy land.

 

[ole ole]

Nashville wanted a forward.

Rumours were that Nashville offered Askarov, 15 and 22 (was it 22 or 23?) to get to 5 . Michkov is a forward.

 

[ole ole]

Montreal and AZ both went D and may not have wanted a forward or to wait 3 years for him to play out his contract.

Any player picked at #5 is at least 2 yrs if not 3 yrs away so we can stop with that nonsense of using the 3 yrs as an excuse for him dropping.

It's clear as day why he fell to 7. Why are we acting like this is a mystery? It's childish to ignore the obvious reason.

from Russia with a KHL contract to navigate.

That's it. That's the whole beginning and end.

Again,
Any player picked at #5 is at least 2 yrs if not 3 yrs away so we can stop with that nonsense of using the 3 yrs as an excuse for him dropping.

 

[hawksrule]

It was stupid that he fell as far as he did, and Philly's opinion of him is that of a future superstar. That's the only opinion that matters here, your pedantry aside.

Philly’s opinion is the only one that matters? Oh, I didn’t realize Chicago wouldn’t get a say in this theoretical deal. That changes everything.

 

[JRichard]

Players are valued differently from team to team. We consistently see this happen. Teams draft players too high vs. consensus & teams pay too much for certain players. Happens all the time.

You are letting 6 teams dictate his value for the rest of the NHL. That's absurd. But ultimately, if the Flyers see him as a future superstar, they reasonably want superstar compensation in return. If CHI sees him as a 2nd liner, they'd expect to give up 2nd line compensation. Both are equally valid and true.

However let's not pretend there's a universal, measurable value for a highly touted, recently drafted prospect. That's just not reality; it's fantasy land.

Agree.
Next June 31 teams deal their 7th oa pick after the lottery for MM. Probably none would for Simachev at 6 or Reinbacher at 5.

 

[hawksrule]

Players are valued differently from team to team. We consistently see this happen. Teams draft players too high vs. consensus & teams pay too much for certain players. Happens all the time.

You are letting 6 teams dictate his value for the rest of the NHL. That's absurd. But ultimately, if the Flyers see him as a future superstar, they reasonably want superstar compensation in return. If CHI sees him as a 2nd liner, they'd expect to give up 2nd line compensation. Both are equally valid and true.

However let's not pretend there's a universal, measurable value for a highly touted, recently drafted prospect. That's just not reality; it's fantasy land.

Nothing you wrote even attempts to defend the notion that his value today is changed. If it was held today, there’s no reason to think it would go any differently.

 

[wmupreds]

Philly’s opinion is the only one that matters? Oh, I didn’t realize Chicago wouldn’t get a say in this theoretical deal. That changes everything.

Generally yes, if a team is going to target a specific player then the team holding the asset has the leverage in determining the price.

 

[hawksrule]

Generally yes, if a team is going to target a specific player then the team holding the asset has the leverage in determining the price.

The OP posted the question from a neutral perspective, not Chicago placing the call.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Any player picked at #5 is at least 2 yrs if not 3 yrs away so we can stop with that nonsense of using the 3 yrs as an excuse for him dropping.


Again,
Any player picked at #5 is at least 2 yrs if not 3 yrs away so we can stop with that nonsense of using the 3 yrs as an excuse for him dropping.

Yes, because that’s the only reason I gave, right?

 

[JRichard]

He said just for fun too. Fun has left this thread but not the OP’s fault.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Again,Any player picked at #5 is at least 2 yrs if not 3 yrs away so we can stop with that nonsense of using the 3 yrs as an excuse for him dropping.

Then what is the excuse? Is he projected to be worse/less talented than all 6 of the players drafted ahead of him?

Nothing you wrote even attempts to defend the notion that his value today is changed. If it was held today, there’s no reason to think it would go any differently.

We can go back to the simplest form of what I said then...do all teams value a player the same? Or do they value a single player more/less than other teams?

 

[Soundgarden]

Rumours were that Nashville offered Askarov, 15 and 22 (was it 22 or 23?) to get to 5 . Michkov is a forward.

Yes, which means we probably weren't looking at Reinbacher.

 

[ole ole]

Then what is the excuse? Is he projected to be worse/less talented than all 6 of the players drafted ahead of him?



We can go back to the simplest form of what I said then...do all teams value a player the same? Or do they value a single player more/less than other teams?

If he was valued as the 2nd best prospect in that draft than why didn't other teams attempt to get him?
His value dropped and being Russian and having contract that expires in 3 yrs are not the only reason he dropped.
Lots of suggestions about character has come out.

Yes, which means we probably weren't looking at Reinbacher.

Agree just saying you were trying to move down to that 5th pick but the Habs declined. Not saying it was good or bad for either team.

 

[Tripod]

To my point why didn’t a team like let’s say Vancouver offer Petterson or Avalanche offer Rantanen for the 5th pick if people in this thread believe he is as valuable as he is.

But you’re telling me Arizona refused to do Cutter Gauthier and 7th for 6th because they were to scared they’d be left with Michkov at 7th wow.

Again, you are ignoring he is not available for at least 3years. The Avs are trying to won now. Vancouver us trying to make tbe playoffs. Briere, just months into his job, can afford to wait

 

[TGWL]

Next year‘s first, which will probably be top five, would be market value. If Philly fans don’t want to do it that’s fine, but his value didn’t magically triple in the past few months.

Who are the top 5 in the draft that equal to greater than his value?

 

[CanuckistanFlyerfan]

That's the problem, Chicago has a lot of interesting assets for a rebuilding team. I'm afraid Phily doesn't.

Cutter Gauthier/Tyson Foerster/Joel Farabee/Travis Sanheim/Carter Hart/Cam York/Bobby Brink/Travis Konecny/Oliver Bonk/their 1st rounder this year...pretty sure those all would be interesting to teams.

But the reality is, its highly unlikely either team is trading either one of them for anything less than a gross overpayment. Which neither team should be doing.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

This isn't possible because the Hawks are drafting Eiserman and will be quite happy with him on Bedard's wing.

 

[hawksrule]

Who are the top 5 in the draft that equal to greater than his value?

The free market spoke a few months ago. Refer to the draft results.

 

[TGWL]

The free market spoke a few months ago. Refer to the draft results.

We're talking the draft coming up, no? Just say you have no idea.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

If he was valued as the 2nd best prospect in that draft than why didn't other teams attempt to get him?
His value dropped and being Russian and having contract that expires in 3 yrs are not the only reason he dropped.
Lots of suggestions about character has come out.

I gave you the answer. NHL fears that he won't come over the the NHL (not just in 3 years - but ever).

You seem to be saying that is nonsense. Then I again ask you: What's your answer as to why he dropped? Do you believe 6 players are better than him?