Meaningful March

[Mingus Dew]

Playoffs are still a mighty long shot but I think you have to consider this season a success under the circumstances.

We are alive and playing great hockey.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Just need to keep stacking wins and not worry about scoreboard watching. If they play at the pace they have been, they have a shot.

 

[JD1]

I just used the NHL.com website. According to that website, Islanders have 70 points, while Pittsburgh has 69. Pittsburgh does have the better points percentage as you pointed out, so that's definitely worth noting & factoring in to the equation.

No matter, its an interesting situation and race for sure.

The difference is we have games in hand on NYI so technically we control our destiny over them. With Pittsburgh we need help to catch them.

 

[Big Muddy]

The difference is we have games in hand on NYI so technically we control our destiny over them. With Pittsburgh we need help to catch them.

Yep, I agree.

 

[Norris4Norris]

How's it going to feel if we miss by a point or 2 and hadn't done anything at the deadline except ship out a couple of bodies? The GM's job is to improve the team at every possible opportunity. Put some wind in their sails and show them you're trying to get them over the hump.

I think the GM's job is to bring a Stanley Cup to Ottawa.

I know there is a lot to go into that, but winning the cup is the ultimate goal.

Are we going to beat Toronto, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Carolina, New Jersey or New York (with Patrick Kane)?

My answer is No, we would lose to all of these teams.

Why mortgage the future for a team that might barely make the playoffs? I understand experience helps the core players, but my experience is that when Dorion starts making trades assuming we are going in one direction we end up going in a whole other direction.

When you assume, you make an ass out of u and me.

 

[swiftwin]

I think the GM's job is to bring a Stanley Cup to Ottawa.

I know there is a lot to go into that, but winning the cup is the ultimate goal.

Are we going to beat Toronto, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Carolina, New Jersey or New York (with Patrick Kane)?

My answer is No, we would lose to all of these teams.

Why mortgage the future for a team that might barely make the playoffs? I understand experience helps the core players, but my experience is that when Dorion starts making trades assuming we are going in one direction we end up going in a whole other direction.

When you assume, you make an ass out of u and me.

Who said anything about mortgaging the future? We can still be buyers without mortgaging the future:

1. We can buy players that have contracts extending into next season+.

2. We can still buy expiring players, but not at a great cost. I'd gladly pay a 3rd or 4th round pick for a small boost at a shot at the playoffs. The ultimate goal of winning the cup requires baby steps. Making the playoffs for the first time is a HUGE step and provides invaluable experience for this young core. The sooner we can make that step, the sooner this core starts to learn what it takes to win in the playoffs. Which means this core's cup window opens sooner, which means this core's cup window is bigger, which means the probability of this core winning the cup becomes higher. 3rd round picks have what? a 25% chance of playing 100 NHL games? I'd easily trade that for a small bump at giving 20 players invaluable experience, jump starting our cup window.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Checked a couple of those playoff predictor sites and the ones that updated after last nights game have us at closer to 16/17% chance to make the playoffs now. Every game against a team we're chasing is gonna swing those odds pretty viciously in either direction.

The athletic hasn't updated yet today as far as I can tell, as they have Detroit at 14%, I'm sure once they factor in last night the Sens will canibalize a chunk of that percentage.

Athletic on TSN last night showed Detroit 14, Ottawa 8.

I just used the NHL.com website. According to that website, Islanders have 70 points, while Pittsburgh has 69. Pittsburgh does have the better points percentage as you pointed out, so that's definitely worth noting & factoring in to the equation.

No matter, it’s an interesting situation and race for sure.

I just look at win loss differential, it’s the easiest. Know what you have to get to.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Just need to keep stacking wins and not worry about scoreboard watching. If they play at the pace they have been, they have a shot.

Exactly. Tough schedule is an excuse. If they want Playoff hockey they have to beat Playoff teams in the regular season.
These young guys always turn it up at the end; here's hoping they can do that again this season.

 

[swiftwin]

I'm probably in the minority here but meaningful for me associated being in control of our own destiny as oppose to needing other teams to lose. Don't get me wrong, I'm enjoying the heck out of this little surge we've gotten, but there is a significant jump we have to overcome.

Goal for me after giving up futures for Cat, Talbot, etc... is playoffs at the minimum but if we miss out by a point or two, this group might get some hunger for what its like when they were so close. Seasons not done yet though, so its not they "were close", they are close and hopefully go on an even bigger heater

If we win every game for the rest of the season and every other team in the race also wins every game (except for the games against us), we fall exactly 2 pts short of the playoffs (behind Buffalo). If Buffalo loses one game besides the game against us, our destiny is 100% in our hands.

So yes, we are absolutely in control of our destiny.

Obviously we're not going to win every game, and neither is our competition. I'm just pointing out how close it actually is. Games in hand do matter. Games in hand mean you're in control of your destiny.

 

[Nova Stutzlia]

If we win every game for the rest of the season and every other team in the race also wins every game (except for the games against us), we fall exactly 2 pts short of the playoffs (behind Buffalo). If Buffalo loses one game besides the game against us, our destiny is 100% in our hands.

So yes, we are absolutely in control of our destiny.

Obviously we're not going to win every game, and neither is our competition. I'm just pointing out how close it actually is. Games in hand do matter. Games in hand mean you're in control of your destiny.

And more to your point, all the other teams have to play each other, which means points lost.
This seems to get overlooked.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Feels good to have kept the flame alive, one more stretch to go boys!

 

[Union2017]

how many games we project we need to win in order to make the playoffs?

 

[JD1]

how many games we project we need to win in order to make the playoffs?

From here, 15-7 gives us 94. That's looking pretty good at the moment.

 

[Union2017]

From here, 15-7 gives us 94. That's looking pretty good at the moment.

OK so.... I see 6 that we should be able to win for sure: Columbus X 2, Chicago, Vancouver, Calgary and Philadelphia

So we can't afford to lose any of them.

Need 9 more...
We should win vs Seattle, Toronto is always an emotional game so take one of the two (L the other one), Pittsburgh is tough but manageable, Florida X2 since they are also competing for the wild card - that's 5.

We must then win vs Buffalo since they are competing as well...

Now 3 more games to win between Rangers, Oilers, Avalanche, Bruins, Lightning X2 , Devils, Hurricanes X2

Since I am a gambling man, I will say we could win one vs Tampa, Bruins might get a night off since they are by far in the best spot, and Carolina since that's almost the playoffs time and they might be more focused on the first round than on the game on April 10 vs the Sens.

Tough road for sure. But, hey, if it comes down to that very last game of the season vs Buffalo, how crazy would that be

Thu, 3/2	at NY Rangers
Sat, 3/4	Columbus
Mon, 3/6	at Chicago
Thu, 3/9	at Seattle
Sat, 3/11	at Vancouver
Sun, 3/12	at Calgary
Tue, 3/14	at Edmonton
Thu, 3/16	Colorado
Sat, 3/18	Toronto
Mon, 3/20	at Pittsburgh
Tue, 3/21	at Boston
Thu, 3/23	Tampa Bay
Sat, 3/25	at New Jersey
Mon, 3/27	Florida
Thu, 3/30	Philadelphia
Sat, 4/1	Toronto
Sun, 4/2	at Columbus
Tue, 4/4	at Carolina
Thu, 4/6	at Florida
Sat, 4/8	Tampa Bay
Mon, 4/10	Carolina
Thu, 4/13	at Buffalo

 

[Norris4Norris]

Who said anything about mortgaging the future? We can still be buyers without mortgaging the future:

1. We can buy players that have contracts extending into next season+.

2. We can still buy expiring players, but not at a great cost. I'd gladly pay a 3rd or 4th round pick for a small boost at a shot at the playoffs. The ultimate goal of winning the cup requires baby steps. Making the playoffs for the first time is a HUGE step and provides invaluable experience for this young core. The sooner we can make that step, the sooner this core starts to learn what it takes to win in the playoffs. Which means this core's cup window opens sooner, which means this core's cup window is bigger, which means the probability of this core winning the cup becomes higher. 3rd round picks have what? a 25% chance of playing 100 NHL games? I'd easily trade that for a small bump at giving 20 players invaluable experience, jump starting our cup window.

Okay that seems fair.

A 3rd or 4th rounder for depth (hopefully on defence). I would be okay with that.

I just don't want to see us take a huge swing and miss.

 

[swiftwin]

And more to your point, all the other teams have to play each other, which means points lost.
This seems to get overlooked.

I already looked into it. Buffalo and Pittsburgh, which at this point are the two likeliest WC teams, do not play eachother.

 

[Union2017]

I just don't want to see us take a huge swing and miss.

PD: "hold my beer!"

 

[Union2017]

so Sens playoff odds (according to the MoneyPuck) are now at 17.2%. We were around 2.5% last week I believe.

Pens at 89.4%, which seems a bit too high IMO comparing to Islanders 33.3%

 

[Mingus Dew]

so Sens playoff odds (according to the MoneyPuck) are now at 17.2%. We were around 2.5% last week I believe.

Pens at 89.4%, which seems a bit too high IMO comparing to Islanders 33.3%

Think it depends on the model. TSN was showing 5.5% after last night's win.

The odds are long regardless.

 

[CorrectOpinion]

I am not looking forward to Rangers tomorrow. Will be amazing if we can steal that one.

 

[Union2017]

I am not looking forward to Rangers tomorrow. Will be amazing if we can steal that one.

I actually think we might have a chance. We might go on a longer streak now, the way we played over the weekend.

 

[swiftwin]

I am not looking forward to Rangers tomorrow. Will be amazing if we can steal that one.

I think we have a decent chance. The game I'm worried about is Saturday against Columbus. We're 100% going to have an emotional let down after that insane mini-playoff series. I think they'll find a way to ride that high into New York and MSG. But coming back home, against a shit team that we dominated like Columbus. We're going to blow it for sure.

 

[Keli]

so Sens playoff odds (according to the MoneyPuck) are now at 17.2%. We were around 2.5% last week I believe.

Pens at 89.4%, which seems a bit too high IMO comparing to Islanders 33.3%

Islanders played 4 more games than Pens and at around the same point that's why their % is lower.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Playoffs are still a mighty long shot but I think you have to consider this season a success under the circumstances.

We are alive and playing great hockey.

This is where we are at unless we get unbelievably lucky.
Awesome 2 games vs Detroit who were on a pretty good streak themselves. NYR should be interesting.
At least we can still have some hope and some fun with our team later in the season. All that feels good . Can we do that and get a lottery pick?

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

If we win every game for the rest of the season and every other team in the race also wins every game (except for the games against us), we fall exactly 2 pts short of the playoffs (behind Buffalo). If Buffalo loses one game besides the game against us, our destiny is 100% in our hands.

So yes, we are absolutely in control of our destiny.

Obviously we're not going to win every game, and neither is our competition. I'm just pointing out how close it actually is. Games in hand do matter. Games in hand mean you're in control of your destiny.

Being “In control of our destiny“ means that it does not matter what the other teams do.

This is NOT true in regards to the Senators, they need teams between them and a playoff spot to go on losing streaks to allow the Senators to move up into a playoff spot.

Ottawa is not in control of their destiny by any stretch of anyone’s imagination

I am not looking forward to Rangers tomorrow. Will be amazing if we can steal that one.

Ottawa does have a good record, vs the Rangers, at MSG.