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Confirmed with Link: McDonagh + Miller to Tampa Bay for Namestnikov + Howden + Hajek + 2018 1st + conditional 2019 1st

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nyr2k2 said:
Guys, the picks. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

There's one first round pick that is just a plain old first round pick in the upcoming 2018 draft.

There is a 2019 second round pick that becomes a first round pick if the Lightning win either this year or next.

So, if you want ideal picks, you want the Lightning to go out early this year, making the 2018 pick better. Then win the Cup next season, turning the 2019 pick from a pick in the second into the 31st pick of round one.
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nyr2k2, i really respect you, but this is not accurate.
 
nyr2k2 said:
Guys, the picks. It's not hard.

There's one first round pick that is just a plain old first round pick in the upcoming 2018 draft.

There is a 2019 second round pick that becomes a first round pick if the Lightning win either this year or next.

So, if you want ideal picks, you want the Lightning to go out early this year, making the 2018 pick better. Then win the Cup next season, turning the 2019 pick from a pick in the second into the 31st pick of round one.
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Yeah, but it is unlikely they win out for the cup next year, just have them lose in the 1st round next year, since it is highly unlikely that they miss the playoffs next year (in which case we would have wanted them to win this year).

The easiest way for me to know how to root is to just have them win it this year and then root for them to lose next year (it is easy to root against a team all season, I do it with a bunch of teams already). But, I want a high pick this year to maximize our assets sooner and quicken the rebuild.
 
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nyr2k2 said:
Guys, the picks. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

There's one first round pick that is just a plain old first round pick in the upcoming 2018 draft.

There is a 2019 second round pick that becomes a first round pick if the Lightning win either this year or next.

So, if you want ideal picks, you want the Lightning to go out early this year, making the 2018 pick better. Then win the Cup next season, turning the 2019 pick from a pick in the second into the 31st pick of round one.
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No, win this year, we get next year’s #1. Cup hangover, Bolts miss the playoffs and are in the lottery. #1 much better.
 
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Alluckks said:
Well, let's go with realism and say that Lightning do not bottom out next year and will be a playoff team. If we knew that they will not miss the playoff next year, then we would want them to bottom out this year. Lose in the 1st round. That gives us the 20th-23rd overall pick (assuming they win their division) for this year. Now, next year, still under the assumption they will make the playoffs, we either want them to win the cup (31st pick) or go out in the 1st round (47th-54th pick, based on whether or not they won their division). Them losing in the cup finals would give us the 61st pick.

A betting man would say they are making the playoffs next year. A betting man would also take the field over a single team, almost regardless of the team.

So I am vying for 1st round exist this year, and 1st round exit next year - because I see them as likely to not bottom out and miss the playoffs next year, but I also see it as less then 50% likely that they win the cup in either year.

But yes, the hypothetical where they win it all this year and then they all get kicked out of the league for doping next year and get the 1st overall next year is the best case scenario.
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But if you win this year you're not getting their 61st pick next year anyway. I don't get it.
 
SnowblindNYR said:
I'm reading this thread and one thing that's really bothering me is how people can't figure out how to maximize our assets. I've seen these two scenarios:

1) We want the Lightning to win it next year because we don't want to get the 31st pick this year.

Or even crazier:

2) We want the Lightning NOT to win the cup so that we don't get the 31st this year.

What am I missing? My understanding is that if we win this year or next year we get next year's pick. So if they win this year they drop from a low pick anyway since they're a top NHL team to #31. Then next year EVERY pick is in play in theory. Imagine if they go through rash of injuries finish 10th and win the lottery. I don't understand why you guys would rather win next year and guarantee a 31st pick with an already low pick this year. Am I missing something or is everyone over-complicating this? (Not everyone, someone suggested this but seemingly was ignored).
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Lightning win this year and the bruins and devils loses as early as possible.

Not to wish injuries on anyone, but maybe next year the lightning return to their norm, i.e. stamkos usually misses big chunks. Then our guarenteed 1st is better.
 
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kramer987 said:
i did, see my post here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threa...ional-2019-1st.2455695/page-75#post-142324713

i made the same mistake at first and then corrected myself.
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Yes, but as I explained, and as I inferred what nyr2k2 implied in his post - it is incredibly unlikely that Tampa misses the playoffs next year. So just root for them to suck this year, and then go out early next year or win the cup next year (whichever you think is more likely, I think it is most likely that they make the playoffs again, but once there it is more likely that they do not win the cup than do, so therefore I want them to go out early [assuming that they make the playoffs... and they will]).
 
Technically, we get the additional first either way if they win.

However, it would be kind of nice to know that next year’s pick is a guaranteed first as early as possible.

It would also give us a vested interest in rooting against TB next year. Because next year is going to be...bumpy.
 
Alluckks said:
Yes, but as I explained, and as I inferred what nyr2k2 implied in his post - it is incredibly unlikely that Tampa misses the playoffs next year. So just root for them to suck this year, and then go out early next year or win the cup next year (whichever you think is more likely, I think it is most likely that they make the playoffs again, but once there it is more likely that they do not win the cup than do, so therefore I want them to go out early [assuming that they make the playoffs... and they will]).
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but if they dont win this year all you are left with by end of season is a conditional second round pick in 2019.

then you say to root for them to go out early next year -- this locks us into TB's second round pick in 2019.

or you say to root for them to win the cup next year -- this locks us into TB's first round pick in 2019 -- which will be 31st.

but if they win the cup this year and we lock into their first round pick for 2019, then the first we are guaranteed from them next year can be anywhere. unlikely to be top 10 or something, but a first round exit could net a good picking slot.

there is no better scenario than TB winning the cup this year.
 
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nyr2k2 said:
Guys, the picks. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

There's one first round pick that is just a plain old first round pick in the upcoming 2018 draft.

There is a 2019 second round pick that becomes a first round pick if the Lightning win either this year or next.

So, if you want ideal picks, you want the Lightning to go out early this year, making the 2018 pick better. Then win the Cup next season, turning the 2019 pick from a pick in the second into the 31st pick of round one.
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Nope.

The lowest the Lightning will pick this year, even if they finish on a schneid and then get bounced in the 1st round is IMO somewhere around 26 or 27. You get that pick, and they then don't win next year, you wind up with like #26 overall this year and then somewhere between #31-64 next year (if they don't win the cup, likely in the high 50s, low 60s).

If, however, the Lightning win this year, you get pick 31, and ensure that next year's pick will be at WORST #31, with a good chance it'll be better than that and an outside chance (e.g. injuries to both Stamkos and Hedman) you slip into the lottery.

You definitely want them to win this year.
 
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Edge said:
Technically, we get the additional first either way if they win.

However, it would be kind of nice to know that next year’s pick is a guaranteed first as early as possible.

It would also give us a vested interest in rooting against TB next year. Because next year is going to be...bumpy.
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I’m with you, Edge. Let them win it this year and then see what happens next year with injuries and whatnot
 
aufheben said:
Am I the only one who just wants Tampa to lose? :laugh:
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Fair sentiment.

It would be difficult to see so many of our former players lift the Cup - we’re talking something like 1/4 of their NHL roster at this point.

On the other hand, from a business perspective, I want that extra first and I’d like to know as soon as possible.

I also fully expect next season to be pretty frustrating, so it would be nice to have a distraction and someone to root against, even when the Rangers can’t beat them.
 
kramer987 said:
but if they dont win this year all you are left with by end of season is a conditional second round pick in 2019.

then you say to root for them to go out early next year -- this locks us into TB's second round pick in 2019.

or you say to root for them to win the cup next year -- this locks us into TB's first round pick in 2019 -- which will be 31st.

but if they win the cup this year and we lock into their first round pick for 2019, then the first we are guaranteed from them next year can be anywhere. unlikely to be top 10 or something, but a first round exit could net a good picking slot.

there is no better scenario than TB winning the cup this year.
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I'd rather have the 2018 #20 + 2019 #48 than have 2018 #31 + 2019 #20

I want the better pick sooner. I am also just going by most likely scenarios.
 
Brooklyn Rangers Fan said:
Nope.

The lowest the Lightning will pick this year, even if they finish on a schneid and then get bounced in the 1st round is IMO somewhere around 26 or 27. You get that pick, and they then don't win next year, you wind up with like #26 overall this year and then somewhere between #31-64 next year (if they don't win the cup, likely in the high 50s, low 60s).

If, however, the Lightning win this year, you get pick 31, and ensure that next year's pick will be at WORST #31, with a good chance it'll be better than that and an outside chance (e.g. injuries to both Stamkos and Hedman) you slip into the lottery.

You definitely want them to win this year.
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If they get bounced in the 1st round then absolute lowest their pick can be is #23. That is a fact.

"Outside chance" that their pick next year is a lottery pick?? Try like 10% chance, if even that.
 
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