McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

[Akrapovince]

Still waiting for that 4-6 game point from McDavid by the end of the season.

It use to be McDavid was almost always good for a couple of points a night on most nights.

Now it seems like a goal and a couple apples are more likely than not.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Lemeiux also likely averaged 8-9 mins on the PP each game if you do some research.

More research doesn’t do anything to help McDavid’s case against Lemieux, you have to realize this right? I’ll paint you another picture. The season is 2000-01. We are in the peak of the dead puck era, it’s the second lowest scoring season from the 1950s to present day. Lemieux just missed 3 seasons in a row when he retired to focus on his health, and is now a 35 year old recovering from cancer and degerative back issues. Despite all this, his point pace would put him only 10 points back from McDavid currently over the same amount of games. A 35 year old, post cancer, post retirement Lemieux playing in the second hardest year to score a goal in since there was only 6 teams BARELY got outscored by McDavid this season.

 

[Bank Shot]

McDavid is on pace for a crazy 157 points right now. The last time that happened was in 1995-96, a season that actually had less goals per game than this year. Lemieux coming off a season where he was limited to 22 games, put up an incredible 161 points at the age of 30. It also only took him 70 games to do it.

People forget how good Lemieux was, there is no extent McDavid is better than him other than health. Lemieux was on pace for 189 points in a lower scoring environment than today, and that was after injuries had already started taking a toll.

While goals per game in the league might have been close, Lemieux played on a team that scored 40 more goals than the Oilers are on pace to score.

We will never get to see what kind of points McDavid could put up if he played on the same team as the 2nd and 5th all time leading scorers, as well as the 20th leading scoring defenceman of all time. And Nedved and Sandstrom thrown in their just for fun.

Because of the salary cap, the kinds of teams that guys like Orr, Gretzky, and Lemieux played on in their primes won't ever exist again.

 

[cupface52]

I’ve never understood this rhetoric. You do realize that if goals per game overall is roughly equal, it being that much easier to score a powerplay goal means it was that much harder to score a 5v5 goal? Considering his even strength points were almost identical to his powerplay points, for every powerplay point he would lose for it being harder to score there, he would gain almost that exact amount in even strength points for it being easier to score there, no? What your left with is exactly what you currently have, him finishing almost as far ahead of McDavid as McDavid is to his closest competitor.

When seasons are equal in GPG, but there's much more PPG scored, it's the top players benefiting the most, especially for Lemieux. Lemieux has the 4 highest PPP scoring years, 66, 79x2, 80, second highest is Coffey with 64 PPP. Lemieux broke 80 EVP points just twice in his career. So no, if Lemieux is scoring less PPP, it's not going to increase his EVP scoring.

Take a look at the following year(96-97), powerplay scoring dropped by 35%, while overall scoring only dropped 7%, and what sort of hit the top players took to their scoring levels. Lemieux, despite playing an extra 6 games, scored 39 less points. Lemieux in 96-97 scored 122 points in 76 games at the age of 31.

When PPO are high, scoring is favored for the top line forwards. When PPO are low, scoring is more evenly distrubted.

 

[innitfam]

100 percent he should of won the calder, was was more dominate them 30 year old panarin was. And it wasn't even close. The difference was an injury

No forward would win the Calder only playing 60% of the year.

 

[Bank Shot]

When seasons are equal in GPG, but there's much more PPG scored, it's the top players benefiting the most, especially for Lemieux. Lemieux has the 4 highest PPP scoring years, 66, 79x2, 80, second highest is Coffey with 64 PPP. Lemieux broke 80 EVP points just twice in his career. So no, if Lemieux is scoring less PPP, it's not going to increase his EVP scoring.

Take a look at the following year(96-97), powerplay scoring dropped by 35%, while overall scoring only dropped 7%, and what sort of hit the top players took to their scoring levels. Lemieux, despite playing an extra 6 games, scored 39 less points. Lemoeix in 96-97 scored 122 points in 76 games at the age of 31.

When PPO are high, scoring is favored for the top line forwards. When PPO are low, scoring is more evenly distrubted.

Crazy how people don't understand things like this.

 

[Dust]

100 percent he should of won the calder, was was more dominate them 30 year old panarin was. And it wasn't even close. The difference was an injury

Nah, little to no argument for the Calder. If he had stayed healthy, he likely wins it, but he was well behind Panarin who was full marks for that.

 

[Dempsey]

When seasons are equal in GPG, but there's much more PPG scored, it's the top players benefiting the most, especially for Lemieux. Lemieux has the 4 highest PPP scoring years, 66, 79x2, 80, second highest is Coffey with 64 PPP. Lemieux broke 80 EVP points just twice in his career. So no, if Lemieux is scoring less PPP, it's not going to increase his EVP scoring.

Take a look at the following year(96-97), powerplay scoring dropped by 35%, while overall scoring only dropped 7%, and what sort of hit the top players took to their scoring levels. Lemieux, despite playing an extra 6 games, scored 39 less points. Lemieux in 96-97 scored 122 points in 76 games at the age of 31.

When PPO are high, scoring is favored for the top line forwards. When PPO are low, scoring is more evenly distrubted.

This is really interesting. I admit I don't even care to read McDavid vs Lemieux because Mario to me was a notch above, but this really does put it into context.

 

[Dessert Nights]

So are we already at the position when McDavid getting "just" 150 points would feel like a disappointment? He just keeps raising the expectations as the season goes on.

 

[Video Nasty]

With 3 points today, he went from the 46th highest scoring season in league history all the way to 37th. 4 more will see him climb into a tie with Coffey at 27th with 138.

 

[Sentinel]

Because of the salary cap, the kinds of teams that guys like Orr, Gretzky, and Lemieux played on in their primes won't ever exist again.

McDavid and Draisaitl (with Kane, RNH, Hyman, etc) are not that far behind Orr and Esposito's Bruins. In names only, that is. Bruins actually won the Cup twice.

 

[norrisnick]

McDavid and Draisaitl (with Kane, RNH, Hyman, etc) are not that far behind Orr and Esposito's Bruins. In names only, that is. Bruins actually won the Cup twice.

The '71 Bruins had 7 of the league's top 9 scorers. That is a ridiculous level of roster disparity.

 

[BallardEra]

I get the feeling that some people would still find a way to discredit McDavid even if he scored 200 points in a season.

 

[authentic]

When seasons are equal in GPG, but there's much more PPG scored, it's the top players benefiting the most, especially for Lemieux. Lemieux has the 4 highest PPP scoring years, 66, 79x2, 80, second highest is Coffey with 64 PPP. Lemieux broke 80 EVP points just twice in his career. So no, if Lemieux is scoring less PPP, it's not going to increase his EVP scoring.

Take a look at the following year(96-97), powerplay scoring dropped by 35%, while overall scoring only dropped 7%, and what sort of hit the top players took to their scoring levels. Lemieux, despite playing an extra 6 games, scored 39 less points. Lemieux in 96-97 scored 122 points in 76 games at the age of 31.

When PPO are high, scoring is favored for the top line forwards. When PPO are low, scoring is more evenly distrubted.

Your general point is correct but someone broke down his ice time in the history section and compared his ES scoring rates in his best seasons to his powerplay scoring rates and shorthanded scoring rates (he played a ton of the penalty kill too so his ES ice time was almost certainly much lower than a lot of others) and if you adjusted it all and gave him less powerplay time he would also have less shorthanded time and more ES time and score virtually the same. These were for his 1988-89 and 1992-93 seasons though where he dominated at ES, same can't be said for 1995-96 I don't think so your point stands for that one. 1992-93 is the best ES scoring rate of all time adjusting for estimated ES ice time apparently.

 

[Coffey]

I get the feeling that some people would still find a way to discredit McDavid even if he scored 200 points in a season.

“Ya but how many cups? More like McDionne.”

 

[authentic]

More research doesn’t do anything to help McDavid’s case against Lemieux, you have to realize this right? I’ll paint you another picture. The season is 2000-01. We are in the peak of the dead puck era, it’s the second lowest scoring season from the 1950s to present day. Lemieux just missed 3 seasons in a row when he retired to focus on his health, and is now a 35 year old recovering from cancer and degerative back issues. Despite all this, his point pace would put him only 10 points back from McDavid currently over the same amount of games. A 35 year old, post cancer, post retirement Lemieux playing in the second hardest year to score a goal in since there was only 6 teams BARELY got outscored by McDavid this season.

Agree with everything except, it definitely wasn't the 2nd hardest year to score a goal in since 1950.

Jagr and Sakic topped 50 that season.

Bure scored 59 (including a 26 game stretch with 33 goals)

That season probably isn't even top 10 hardest to score goals.

 

[Yepthatsme]

When seasons are equal in GPG, but there's much more PPG scored, it's the top players benefiting the most, especially for Lemieux. Lemieux has the 4 highest PPP scoring years, 66, 79x2, 80, second highest is Coffey with 64 PPP. Lemieux broke 80 EVP points just twice in his career. So no, if Lemieux is scoring less PPP, it's not going to increase his EVP scoring.

Take a look at the following year(96-97), powerplay scoring dropped by 35%, while overall scoring only dropped 7%, and what sort of hit the top players took to their scoring levels. Lemieux, despite playing an extra 6 games, scored 39 less points. Lemieux in 96-97 scored 122 points in 76 games at the age of 31.

When PPO are high, scoring is favored for the top line forwards. When PPO are low, scoring is more evenly distrubted.

This idea is literally defeated by the fact that in the 2000-01 season, there were actually less powerplay goals than in todays game. It was harder to score across the board whether it be 5v5 by a lot or on the powerplay. Despite this, a broken down 35 year old Lemieux was accomplishing barely less than a prime McDavid is in an environment that’s much more favourable for offense.

Agree with everything except, it definitely wasn't the 2nd hardest year to score a goal in since 1950.

Jagr and Sakic topped 50 that season.

Bure scored 59 (including a 26 game stretch with 33 goals)

That season probably isn't even top 10 hardest to score goals.

I was talking quite literally, that season had the second lowest goals per game of any season in a league with more than 6 teams. You listing a few other all time greats accomplishments as examples doesn’t diminish how few goals there were that year.

 

[authentic]

This idea is literally defeated by the fact that in the 2000-01 season, there were actually less powerplay goals than in todays game. It was harder to score across the board whether it be 5v5 by a lot or on the powerplay. Despite this, a broken down 35 year old Lemieux was accomplishing barely less than a prime McDavid is in an environment that’s much more favourable for offense.

I was talking quite literally, that season had the second lowest goals per game of any season in a league with more than 6 teams. You listing a few other all time greats accomplishments as examples doesn’t diminish how few goals there was that year.

It quite literally doesn't though. Seasons in the 2011-16 period were lower, 2003-04 was lower, 1997-98 was lower, 2001-02 was lower, just off the top of my head.

 

[PensandCaps]

100 percent he should of won the calder, was was more dominate them 30 year old panarin was. And it wasn't even close. The difference was an injury

What are you talking about? Panarin deserved it much more. He was electric with Kane, to say McDavid was better that year and it wasn't even close is hilarious.

 

[BallardEra]

McDavid has 29 points in his last 12 games.

I think 160 points might just be in play for him.


3 games left versus Sharks.

2 games left versus Coyotes.

2 games left versus Ducks.

 

[cupface52]

Your general point is correct but someone broke down his ice time in the history section and compared his ES scoring rates in his best seasons to his powerplay scoring rates and shorthanded scoring rates (he played a ton of the penalty kill too so his ES ice time was almost certainly much lower than a lot of others) and if you adjusted it all and gave him less powerplay time he would also have less shorthanded time and more ES time and score virtually the same. These were for his 1988-89 and 1992-93 seasons though where he dominated at ES, same can't be said for 1995-96 I don't think so your point stands for that one. 1992-93 is the best ES scoring rate of all time adjusting for estimated ES ice time apparently.

Gretzky also played a lot SH, more then Lemieux if anything. He dominated ES every year. 88-89, Lemieux had just one more EVP than Yzerman, so I wouldn't exactly call that dominating. Gretzky would score more EVP than players scored total points, that's dominating EVP scoring.

 

[authentic]

This idea is literally defeated by the fact that in the 2000-01 season, there were actually less powerplay goals than in todays game. It was harder to score across the board whether it be 5v5 by a lot or on the powerplay. Despite this, a broken down 35 year old Lemieux was accomplishing barely less than a prime McDavid is in an environment that’s much more favourable for offense.

I was talking quite literally, that season had the second lowest goals per game of any season in a league with more than 6 teams. You listing a few other all time greats accomplishments as examples doesn’t diminish how few goals there were that year.

1997-98 2.64
1998-99 2.63
1999-00 2.75
2000-01 2.76
2001-02 2.62
2002-03 2.65
2003-04 2.57

It was literally the highest scoring season in the dead puck era

Gretzky also played a lot SH, more then Lemieux if anything. He dominated ES every year. 88-89, Lemieux had just one more EVP than Yzerman, so I wouldn't exactly call that dominating. Gretzky would score more EVP than players scored total points, that's dominating EVP scoring.

No, Lemieux played way less ES time in 1988-89. His 1992-93 season is the best adjusted ES season of all time. Gretzky more often has dominant ES seasons throughout his career though yes.

 

[Yepthatsme]

It quite literally doesn't though. Seasons in the 2011-16 period were lower, 2003-04 was lower, 1997-98 was lower, 2001-02 was lower, just off the top of my head.

That’s on me, I read from the wrong column and mixed it up with the 2001-02 season. Sorry the more factual way of saying it would be “despite their being almost half a goal less per game (0.48 less goals per game, and less powerplay goals per game unless I pulled that stat from the wrong column too), a 35 year old post-retirement, cancer, and degenerative back problem Lemieux would put up a point pace that would have him 10 points back of current prime mid-20s McDavid this season back in 2000-01.” I apologize if I came off as disingenuous due to my mistake.

 

[norrisnick]

This idea is literally defeated by the fact that in the 2000-01 season, there were actually less powerplay goals than in todays game. It was harder to score across the board whether it be 5v5 by a lot or on the powerplay. Despite this, a broken down 35 year old Lemieux was accomplishing barely less than a prime McDavid is in an environment that’s much more favourable for offense.

35yo Mario hopped into a roster featuring the 3x defending Art Ross winner and the league's best line on line 2 (Straka, Lang, Kovalev).

Toss the Pavelski, Hintz, Robertson line on the Oilers and it might be comparable.

 

[authentic]

That’s on me, I read from the wrong column and mixed it up with the 2001-02 season. Sorry the more factual way of saying it would be “despite their being almost half a goal less per game (0.48 less goals per game, and less powerplay goals per game unless I pulled that stat from the wrong column too), a 35 year old post-retirement, cancer, and degenerative back problem Lemieux would put up a point pace that would have him 10 points back of current prime mid-20s McDavid this season back in 2000-01.” I apologize if I came off as disingenuous due to my mistake.

Yeah it's all good, I totally agree with your overall point for sure. Lemieux was the best offensive talent of all time IMO. Wouldn't fault anyone saying Gretzky either of course.