McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

[Montreal Shadow]

How about now??

He’s reached a level that I didn’t think we would see so soon. Many of us speculated that a modern day Gretzky or Lemieux would score 150pts in the new era and I didn’t think McDavid was that good. I thought he was a cut above Crosby but this season puts him in the fabled Lemieux/Gretzky tier.

 

[Cats2TheCup]

He’s reached a level that I didn’t think we would see so soon. Many of us speculated that a modern day Gretzky or Lemieux would score 150pts in the new era and I didn’t think McDavid was that good. I thought he was a cut above Crosby but this season puts him in the fabled Lemieux/Gretzky tier.

A modern day Gretzky or Mario would score 300

 

[BallardEra]

I think the last time two teammates both scored 50 goals in a season was when Mario and Jagr did it for the Pens in 1995-96.

Draisaitl needs 6 more goals for him and McDavid to join that club.

 

[mattihp]

A modern day Gretzky or Mario would score 300

Yeah, imagine a young Mario who was forced to actually work out and eat healthier.. He carried two guys on his back whilst scoring when he ate poutine and smoked half a pack of cigarettes..

 

[norrisnick]

Yeah, imagine a young Mario who was forced to actually work out and eat healthier.. He carried two guys on his back whilst scoring when he ate poutine and smoked half a pack of cigarettes..

I mean, Mario gave up and quit because he had to work in the 90s. Why would he magically want to work harder now?

 

[mattihp]

I mean, Mario gave up and quit because he had to work in the 90s. Why would he magically want to work harder now?

When he came back though.. The shape he was in!

 

[authentic]

He’s reached a level that I didn’t think we would see so soon. Many of us speculated that a modern day Gretzky or Lemieux would score 150pts in the new era and I didn’t think McDavid was that good. I thought he was a cut above Crosby but this season puts him in the fabled Lemieux/Gretzky tier.

I think you had it right the first time.

150 points 10 years ago would be Lemieux and Gretzky tier.

He is a cut above Crosby but still clearly below them, although he's not so far behind Lemieux at the same age really in terms of actual dominance.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Not to question the model, but by looking at the graph it seems to underestimate the value of current results. By this I mean your percentages were so low 3 weeks ago even when his current trends at that time for the season were putting him on pace to hit these numbers. Obviously no model is perfect, but if you're seeing massive spikes in data over a short period it means that it could probably use some fine tuning (and yes, I realize that 13 goals in 10 games and all the recent points play a big role in that too).

No worries - the reason I'm presenting the model with so many details is it's good to get feedback, which helps me improve future versions.

I've been wrestling with the same question. Was the model too conservative? The big question mark (as I've talked about in other posts) is the model requires an estimate of a player's "true" production level. That's based, in part, on prior year data, including from the 2019-20 season. I suspect I gave too much weight to that season (McDavid has been playing at a higher level during the past three years, and scoring is also higher leaguewide).

On the other hand, 13 goals in 10 games is huge. I had him at over a 50% probability of reaching 60 goals in mid February, after he had 41 goals in 50 games (at that point he required 19 in 32 - 0.59 gpg is pretty much in line with his recent average, hence the probability is close to 50/50). That cold streak of 1 goal in 7 games really hurt. But he's bounced back in a big way, and that gets him back over 90% (13 goals in 10 games in ridiculous).

Either way - that's part of the excitement of sports. Occasionally someone like McDavid comes along and redefines what we think is possible.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

He’ll hit 160 points with all the help the refs give him

True and also Matthews is still so much better defensively that he’s easily the better player right?

 

[KlefDown]

A modern day Gretzky or Mario would score 300

in the AJHL maybe

even if your 300 goals was an over exaggeration, old heads make it seem like NHL skill level and compete has somehow gone down from the 80/90's. explain???

 

[Video Nasty]

I think you had it right the first time.

150 points 10 years ago would be Lemieux and Gretzky tier.

He is a cut above Crosby but still clearly below them, although he's not so far behind Lemieux at the same age really in terms of actual dominance.

I think a great side result of McDavid notching 150 points is that it should make some more people stop and consider that regardless of scoring levels, peak Gretzky and Lemieux would have notched similar results to what they did in reality even in the present scoring environment.

 

[Cats2TheCup]

in the AJHL maybe

even if your 300 goals was an over exaggeration, old heads make it seem like NHL skill level and compete has somehow gone down from the 80/90's. explain???

The next Great One will be hitting numbers we’ve never seen in the sport, will even hit a 300 pt season. McDavid ain’t on Gretzky/Mario level, just like Austin Matthews ain’t the second best player in the NHL.

 

[authentic]

I think a great side result of McDavid notching 150 points is that it should make some more people stop and consider that regardless of scoring levels, peak Gretzky and Lemieux would have notched similar results to what they did in reality even in the present scoring environment.

If by results you mean dominance then yes, but there are still many more factors to consider outside of scoring levels

 

[BallardEra]

Point #130.

 

[Coffey]

Point #130.

In this day and age!

 

[BraveCanadian]

I think a great side result of McDavid notching 150 points is that it should make some more people stop and consider that regardless of scoring levels, peak Gretzky and Lemieux would have notched similar results to what they did in reality even in the present scoring environment.

Ah remember the good ole days of HFBoards when the “drastic” improvement in players, more technical goaltending, analytics, and the nebulous “defensive systems” meant that it was literally impossible for a player to ever score more than 130-140 again?

Now the red light is on all the time and the excuses are amazing.

Gretzky and Lemieux would be torching this league.

 

[dwonger]

Ah remember the good ole days of HFBoards when the “drastic” improvement in players, more technical goaltending, analytics, and the nebulous “defensive systems” meant that it was literally impossible for a player to ever score more than 130-140 again?

Now the red light is on all the time and the excuses are amazing.

Gretzky and Lemieux would be torching this league.

Neither would hit 100 points.

 

[PostBradMalone]

131 now, 57th goal to put him at a 155-point, 67-goal pace. That would tie Yzerman for the best season ever by a player not named Gretzky or Lemieux.

 

[TheGuiminator]

Without a doubt he's hitting 150, the question is can he make it to 164 points ?

Being the first non Gretzky/Lemieux player to reach a 2 PPG average over a full season would be huge.

This would be as big of a deal as a 200 points season in the 80's imo.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

McDavid just scored his 60th powerplay point of the season. This is only the 12th season in NHL history (going back to the mid 1930's, when this was first tracked) where a player scored 60+ PP points.

If McDavid gets just five more PP points, he'll move into 5th place all-time. Mario Lemieux holds 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place.

(Also - this is the 50th 130 point season in NHL history. Bobby Orr and Phil Esposito had a few in the early/mid 1970's. Every other 130 point season took place between 1977 and 1996).

 

[Some Other Flame]

Draisaitl has 15 goals in his last 15 games and now sits at 44 goals.

It must have been awhile when two teammates both hit 50 goals in the same season.

Looked it up

The last time the NHL saw a team boast multiple 50-goal scorers was the 1995-96 season. The Penguins did it with Lemieux (69G) and Jaromir Jagr (62G), a centre and a winger, respectively.

 

[Kerberos]

Without a doubt he's hitting 150, the question is can he make it to 164 points ?

Being the first non Gretzky/Lemieux player to reach a 2 PPG average over a full season would be huge.

This would be as big of a deal as a 200 points season in the 80's imo.

That's a little bit too much of an ask. He'd have to go like 2.8 ppg the rest of the way.

Between Yamo and Puljujarvi, he's probably lost about 12 points this year from them flubbing empty net tap-ins so that will probably end up being the difference between the 150-155 he'll end up at and 2 ppg.

 

[TheGuiminator]

That's a little bit too much of an ask. He'd have to go like 2.8 ppg the rest of the way.

Between Yamo and Puljujarvi, he's probably lost about 12 points this year from them flubbing empty net tap-ins so that will probably end up being the difference between the 150-155 he'll end up at and 2 ppg.

That's why it would be the equivalent of a 200 pts season in the 80's

 

[Dust]

That's a little bit too much of an ask. He'd have to go like 2.8 ppg the rest of the way.

Between Yamo and Puljujarvi, he's probably lost about 12 points this year from them flubbing empty net tap-ins so that will probably end up being the difference between the 150-155 he'll end up at and 2 ppg.

It could happen, they play SJ x3, Ari x2, Ana x2 yet.

 

[PostBradMalone]

That's a little bit too much of an ask. He'd have to go like 2.7 ppg the rest of the way.

He does get to play ARI and ANH x2, and SJS x3 so I think there’s a chance. Usually the California slog is a brutal one for Edmonton, but it just so happens those three teams will be icing about the worst rosters they possibly can down the stretch for a shot at Bedard.

Let’s say McDavid averages 3 PPG in those seven contests, that means he just needs 11 in the remaining six games to hit 164 on the nose. Given he’s been casually coasting above that level for two months now, the conditions are right for a truly epic finish to the season.