McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

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That’s now a margin of 29.6% ahead of the runner up and 33.7% ahead of the closest non-teammate.

Only Howe and Gretzky have such victories to their name.

And it will be his second wildly dominant win. 25% over Drai and 52.1% over #3 Marchand in 2020-2021.

But yeah, between that, 5 Art Rosses, 3 Harts, 4 Lindsays, 150 points to come, and all his other accolades, he hasn’t separated himself enough from his peers for some people.
cRoSbY wAs BeTtEr
 
He’ll hit 160 points with all the help the refs give him
I don't even know what that means. He gets hacked, slashed and interfered with multiple times a game when he goes through the neutral zone and the refs rarely call squat. If they actually did, EDM would get 10 PP's a game. lol
We won regardless of the horrendous officiating and the Diving from a crappy team
what? At one point it was 5 to 1 for the Leafs in PP's. How are you complaining about the refs? lol. Weird.

But anyways back on track because the Leafs fan decided to hijack the thread. It seems like if he can continue his pace 150 is quite doable. I'd love to see him hit 160 though. That would be even more special (not that 150 wouldn't be also lol).
 
Will be nice to see McDavid finally show Draisaitl and kucherov who's the boss after finally surpassing their best career totals next game. Hopefully all Kucherov and Draisaitl fans man up and apologize for ever suggesting kucherov and draisaitl was on the same level as Mcdavid!
 
Also moved into the top 25 in active point leaders in the NHL. Just passed Paul Stastny, handful of points behind Burns, Benn, and Carter. Don't think he'll leapfrog anyone else this season unless he goes off for like 50 points and Marchand goes ice cold. 26 career points back of Marchand.
 

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That’s now a margin of 29.6% ahead of the runner up and 33.7% ahead of the closest non-teammate.

Only Howe and Gretzky have such victories to their name.

And it will be his second wildly dominant win. 25% over Drai and 52.1% over #3 Marchand in 2020-2021.

But yeah, between that, 5 Art Rosses, 3 Harts, 4 Lindsays, 150 points to come, and all his other accolades, he hasn’t separated himself enough from his peers for some people.
That's definitely terrific scoring at a consistent level. Then again, he gets compared to The Great One, who came to the league by storm, leading the league in points (and assists) every single year for his first eight seasons (= the point in time of their respective careers where McDavid is now). Fair or unfair comparison? It is what it is. Good on McDavid for not caving in under the pressure and endless comparisons.

Will be nice to see McDavid finally show Draisaitl and kucherov who's the boss after finally surpassing their best career totals next game. Hopefully all Kucherov and Draisaitl fans man up and apologize for ever suggesting kucherov and draisaitl was on the same level as Mcdavid!
Exceeding Kucherov's (or any active player's for that matter) personal best is a significant detail in McDavid's legacy for sure, leaves so many fewer buts for the naysayers.
 
He has the highest single season point total of the 21st century with 14 games left and as an Oilers fan I still somehow want more. That's how much this guy is spoiling fans. Screw 150, 160 please.
 
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129 points now with 14 games remaining. He's an automatic point per game player so he should hit 140+ easily. The question is how many will he get on top of that?
 
With McDavid gunning for best non-Gretzky/Lemieux season I was curious how many more people he had to pass to get there. He is currently at the 67th best season by total points right now but removing players who have had more than 124 multiple times there are 27 players left for him to pass to get there, here is who is still ahead of him...

Next up are Robitaille and Thornton's peak seasons of 125 points.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Season[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]S/C[/TD]
[TD]Pos[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]P[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wayne Gretzky[/TD]

[TD]
19851986​
[/TD]

[TD]EDM[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
52​
[/TD]

[TD]
163​
[/TD]

[TD]
215​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mario Lemieux[/TD]

[TD]
19881989​
[/TD]

[TD]PIT[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
76​
[/TD]

[TD]
85​
[/TD]

[TD]
114​
[/TD]

[TD]
199​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Steve Yzerman[/TD]

[TD]
19881989​
[/TD]

[TD]DET[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
65​
[/TD]

[TD]
90​
[/TD]

[TD]
155​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Phil Esposito[/TD]

[TD]
19701971​
[/TD]

[TD]BOS[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
78​
[/TD]

[TD]
76​
[/TD]

[TD]
76​
[/TD]

[TD]
152​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bernie Nicholls[/TD]

[TD]
19881989​
[/TD]

[TD]LAK[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
79​
[/TD]

[TD]
70​
[/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
150​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jaromir Jagr[/TD]

[TD]
19951996​
[/TD]

[TD]PIT[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]

[TD]
82​
[/TD]

[TD]
62​
[/TD]

[TD]
87​
[/TD]

[TD]
149​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pat LaFontaine[/TD]

[TD]
19921993​
[/TD]

[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
84​
[/TD]

[TD]
53​
[/TD]

[TD]
95​
[/TD]

[TD]
148​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mike Bossy[/TD]

[TD]
19811982​
[/TD]

[TD]NYI[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
64​
[/TD]

[TD]
83​
[/TD]

[TD]
147​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Adam Oates[/TD]

[TD]
19921993​
[/TD]

[TD]BOS[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
84​
[/TD]

[TD]
45​
[/TD]

[TD]
97​
[/TD]

[TD]
142​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobby Orr[/TD]

[TD]
19701971​
[/TD]

[TD]BOS[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]

[TD]
78​
[/TD]

[TD]
37​
[/TD]

[TD]
102​
[/TD]

[TD]
139​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Peter Stastny[/TD]

[TD]
19811982​
[/TD]

[TD]QUE[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
46​
[/TD]

[TD]
93​
[/TD]

[TD]
139​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul Coffey[/TD]

[TD]
19851986​
[/TD]

[TD]EDM[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]

[TD]
79​
[/TD]

[TD]
48​
[/TD]

[TD]
90​
[/TD]

[TD]
138​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marcel Dionne[/TD]

[TD]
19791980​
[/TD]

[TD]LAK[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
53​
[/TD]

[TD]
84​
[/TD]

[TD]
137​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dennis Maruk[/TD]

[TD]
19811982​
[/TD]

[TD]WSH[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
60​
[/TD]

[TD]
76​
[/TD]

[TD]
136​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Guy Lafleur[/TD]

[TD]
19761977​
[/TD]

[TD]MTL[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
56​
[/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
136​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jari Kurri[/TD]

[TD]
19841985​
[/TD]

[TD]EDM[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]

[TD]
73​
[/TD]

[TD]
71​
[/TD]

[TD]
64​
[/TD]

[TD]
135​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bryan Trottier[/TD]

[TD]
19781979​
[/TD]

[TD]NYI[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
76​
[/TD]

[TD]
47​
[/TD]

[TD]
87​
[/TD]

[TD]
134​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pierre Turgeon[/TD]

[TD]
19921993​
[/TD]

[TD]NYI[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
83​
[/TD]

[TD]
58​
[/TD]

[TD]
74​
[/TD]

[TD]
132​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Teemu Selanne[/TD]

[TD]
19921993​
[/TD]

[TD]WIN[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]

[TD]
84​
[/TD]

[TD]
76​
[/TD]

[TD]
56​
[/TD]

[TD]
132​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brett Hull[/TD]

[TD]
19901991​
[/TD]

[TD]STL[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]

[TD]
78​
[/TD]

[TD]
86​
[/TD]

[TD]
45​
[/TD]

[TD]
131​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Denis Savard[/TD]

[TD]
19871988​
[/TD]

[TD]CHI[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
44​
[/TD]

[TD]
87​
[/TD]

[TD]
131​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kent Nilsson[/TD]

[TD]
19801981​
[/TD]

[TD]CGY[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
49​
[/TD]

[TD]
82​
[/TD]

[TD]
131​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dale Hawerchuk[/TD]

[TD]
19841985​
[/TD]

[TD]WIN[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
53​
[/TD]

[TD]
77​
[/TD]

[TD]
130​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mark Messier[/TD]

[TD]
19891990​
[/TD]

[TD]EDM[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
79​
[/TD]

[TD]
45​
[/TD]

[TD]
84​
[/TD]

[TD]
129​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nikita Kucherov[/TD]

[TD]
20182019​
[/TD]

[TD]TBL[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]

[TD]
82​
[/TD]

[TD]
41​
[/TD]

[TD]
87​
[/TD]

[TD]
128​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexander Mogilny[/TD]

[TD]
19921993​
[/TD]

[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]

[TD]
77​
[/TD]

[TD]
76​
[/TD]

[TD]
51​
[/TD]

[TD]
127​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Doug Gilmour[/TD]

[TD]
19921993​
[/TD]

[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
83​
[/TD]

[TD]
32​
[/TD]

[TD]
95​
[/TD]

[TD]
127​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Joe Thornton[/TD]

[TD]
20052006​
[/TD]

[TD]BOS,SJS[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]
81​
[/TD]

[TD]
29​
[/TD]

[TD]
96​
[/TD]

[TD]
125​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Luc Robitaille[/TD]

[TD]
19921993​
[/TD]

[TD]LAK[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]

[TD]
84​
[/TD]

[TD]
63​
[/TD]

[TD]
62​
[/TD]

[TD]
125​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


With the last couple games including tonight he has passed Robitaille, Thornton, Gilmour, Mogilny and Kucherov. Tied now with Messier for the fourth best Oiler peak season. He’s now got 21 more to pass for third all time. Should pass quite a few in the next five games as 14 sit between 130 and 139. Also he is tied for the 50th best individual scoring season of all time and will be top 25 if he hits 139 points.
 
Last edited:
Also moved into the top 25 in active point leaders in the NHL. Just passed Paul Stastny, handful of points behind Burns, Benn, and Carter. Don't think he'll leapfrog anyone else this season unless he goes off for like 50 points and Marchand goes ice cold. 26 career points back of Marchand.
its insane that it's not out of the realm of possibility for McDavid to hit 1000 career pts by the end of next season despite time lost to COVID and missing half a season
 
its insane that it's not out of the realm of possibility for McDavid to hit 1000 career pts by the end of next season despite time lost to COVID and missing half a season
150 this season and 150 next season and he hits 1000 points at 27 years old. The only other player who would have done that at that age is Gretzky. Insane if that happens especially being in the modern era, cap league.
 
Oh man, reading pages 1, 2, 3 in this thread - some of you should be absolutely ashamed of your awful takes.

This thread is barely 3 months old, and wow.

Most on this forum have very little imagination for what could be. They couldn’t see the possibility of 100+ points in the shortened COVID season, they couldn’t imagine McDavid winning the Rocket in the season following Matthews scoring 60 goals, and even 140 points, let alone 150, was an unfathomable benchmark to them.

This is all a part of McDavid remolding the Big Four into a new Big Five. He’s doing things most thought impossible in this day and age.

It won’t be long before a majority of the doubters and haters claim how much of an honor it was to have seen him play.
 
My model now gives McDavid a 99% probability of reaching 140 points (assuming he plays all 82 games). His probability skyrocketed with his recent streak of 19 points in six games. This shows his probability, re-calculated after each game this year:

View attachment 667625

The model shows that McDavid is favoured to get 150 points, but it's close to coin flip. Note how he was at 11% less than a month ago:

View attachment 667627

And in terms of reaching 60 goals, it's not quite a done deal, but he has a very good chance. His probability soared from 17% to 90% in just three weeks, thanks to scoring 13 goals in the past 10 games:

View attachment 667631
Not to question the model, but by looking at the graph it seems to underestimate the value of current results. By this I mean your percentages were so low 3 weeks ago even when his current trends at that time for the season were putting him on pace to hit these numbers. Obviously no model is perfect, but if you're seeing massive spikes in data over a short period it means that it could probably use some fine tuning (and yes, I realize that 13 goals in 10 games and all the recent points play a big role in that too).
 

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