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McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

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My current projection for McDavid's point total (assuming he plays all 82 games):

1677682152029.png


The single most likely outcome is exactly 150 points. He has virtually a 100% probability of reaching 130 points, and a 97% probability of reaching 140 points.

Believe it or not, McDavid still has a 7% of reaching 160 points. I'm not saying it's going to happen - in fact, there's a 93% probability it doesn't happen. But as of today, McDavid scoring >160 points is more probable than him finishing at/under 140 (again on the assumption that he plays all 82 games).

1677682031537.png

For goals, McDavid's most likely outcome is 62 goals. He has an 83% probability of reaching 60 goals. He has a 32% probability of at least tying Ovechkin's 65 goals from 2008 (the highest total in more than 25 years).
 
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I do wonder if losing Barrie who was a valuable offensive piece will affect McDavid's scoring pace. Either way I still think he hits 150
 
GreeningOil said:
I believe Gretzky had 5 in a row! They were showing a metric on Sportsnet. I can’t remember however, if it was a league or franchise record.
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Lemieux had 5 as well. Each had a hat trick and 4 two goal games in that streak. Gretzky 84-85 Lemieux 88-89.

Bank Shot said:
He wasn't better. McDavid just had a horrific season for puckluck.
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Yeah I heard it all before but he also had 11 empty net points and Matthews had more primary points and 51 goals in 50 games. Anyway he won the Hart and Lindsay despite missing 9 games so it was a done deal according to voters and NHL players themselves. Strange that this would matter now anyway with the season McDavid is having.
 
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Calderon said:
No such streak for Gretzky, regular season or playoffs. I skimmed thru all seasons up to the early '90s. Wayne Gretzky 1984-85 Game Log | Hockey-Reference.com

Mario likely has the best four game stretch as well, with 2, 3, 2 and 4 goals in march of 1989.
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Oh right it was just 4 for Gretzky. Lemieux has the record with 5 then. Not sure who else would have done it but I'm pretty sure it's Lemieux in the modern era atleast.
 
authentic said:
Oh right it was just 4 for Gretzky. Lemieux has the record with 5 then. Not sure who else would have done it but I'm pretty sure it's Lemieux in the modern era atleast.
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Found a five game stretch for Mogilny! A sequence of 3, 2, 3, 3, 2 around the turn of the year 92-93, amidst of a stretch of 24 goals in 14 games (four hattricks).

Bernie Nicholls had a stretch of 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 2.
 
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It was a different league back then, but Cy Denneny scored 3, 3, 2 and 4 goals in his first four NHL games (in December 1917). That same season, Joe Malone had three straight 2 goals games, followed by a 5 goal game.

Charlie Simmer had four straight two-goal games in December 1980.

The NHL record appears to belong to Punch Broadbent in 1922. He scored at least two goals in six straight games (four games with two goals, and two games with hat tricks).

@MadLuke might have more complete data
 
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blundluntman29 said:
I do wonder if losing Barrie who was a valuable offensive piece will affect McDavid's scoring pace. Either way I still think he hits 150
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I think it would be very easy to overestimate the importance of Barrie on this team, no disrespect to how he played. With Drai, McDavid, Nuge, Kane and then having a player like Hyman who is willing to go to the dirty areas, you really don't need an offensively gifted d-man to still have the top power play in the NHL. This move gives a guy like Bouchard (who is 23 and likely has better upside) a chance to learn the role while on a MUCH cheaper contract. Ek is also going to be great for Nurse, who needs a more stable defender to show him how not to cough up the puck anxiously 20 times a game.

As mentioned in another post, Ek's ability to move the puck out of his own zone will produce more ES points for McDavid, and likely not hurt the PP at all.
 
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Hockey Outsider said:
My current projection for McDavid's point total (assuming he plays all 82 games):

View attachment 660017

The single most likely outcome is exactly 150 points. He has virtually a 100% probability of reaching 130 points, and a 97% probability of reaching 140 points.

Believe it or not, McDavid still has a 7% of reaching 160 points. I'm not saying it's going to happen - in fact, there's a 93% probability it doesn't happen. But as of today, McDavid scoring >160 points is more probable than him finishing at/under 140 (again on the assumption that he plays all 82 games).

View attachment 660014
For goals, McDavid's most likely outcome is 62 goals. He has an 83% probability of reaching 60 goals. He has a 32% probability of at least tying Ovechkin's 65 goals from 2008 (the highest total in more than 25 years).
Click to expand...
Do you mind me asking what kind of variables you use to come up with these models?
 
Calderon said:
Found a five game stretch for Mogilny! A sequence of 3, 2, 3, 3, 2 around the turn of the year 92-93, amidst of a stretch of 24 goals in 14 games (four hattricks).

Bernie Nicholls had a stretch of 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 2.
Click to expand...

Wowzers from Mogilny there. That has got to be the best.
 
fly4apuckguy said:
I think it would be very easy to overestimate the importance of Barrie on this team, no disrespect to how he played. With Drai, McDavid, Nuge, Kane and then having a player like Hyman who is willing to go to the dirty areas, you really don't need an offensively gifted d-man to still have the top power play in the NHL. This move gives a guy like Bouchard (who is 23 and likely has better upside) a chance to learn the role while on a MUCH cheaper contract. Ek is also going to be great for Nurse, who needs a more stable defender to show him how not to cough up the puck anxiously 20 times a game.

As mentioned in another post, Ek's ability to move the puck out of his own zone will produce more ES points for McDavid, and likely not hurt the PP at all.
Click to expand...
No offense to Barrie but you could put Brad Marsh on the Oilers powerplay and it is still going to score. I have no worries having Bouchard on the powerplay. They may as well play him to his strengths. Having him in the lineup and not on the powerplay really eliminates any benefit of having in the lineup. At least now he will have a purpose.
 
Hockey Outsider said:
It was a different league back then, but Cy Denneny scored 3, 3, 2 and 4 goals in his first four NHL games (in December 1917). That same season, Joe Malone had three straight 2 goals games, followed by a 5 goal game.

Charlie Simmer had four straight two-goal games in December 1980.

The NHL record appears to belong to Punch Broadbent in 1922. He scored at least two goals in six straight games (four games with two goals, and two games with hat tricks).

@MadLuke might have more complete data
Click to expand...

Yeah I expected the record to be before forward passing was introduced.
 
FDBluth said:
Do you mind me asking what kind of variables you use to come up with these models?
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Essentially, it's the Poisson probability distribution. Scoring in hockey can be modelled by that distribution with a high degree of accuracy. I can dig up a technical paper later (if requested) that explains why that's the case.

The only unknown variable is what McDavid's "true" scoring rate is. (We never know, with absolute certainty, a player's "true" ability, we can only infer it based on their performance). Essentially it's estimated based on his actual results over the past few years. I won't give away exactly how current vs prior season data is weighted. I'm probably being conservative because I think I've given his 2019-20 performance too much weight.

Generally I don't make any specific adjustments for how strong the opponents are. Over long periods, the impact is trivial. I generally don't make forecasts over very short periods (five or ten games) because then the quality of the opponent could be significant enough to skew the results.
 
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Conor McDavitt said:
No offense to Barrie but you could put Brad Marsh on the Oilers powerplay and it is still going to score. I have no worries having Bouchard on the powerplay. They may as well play him to his strengths. Having him in the lineup and not on the powerplay really eliminates any benefit of having in the lineup. At least now he will have a purpose.
Click to expand...
LOL Brad Marsh. I respect the reference. :laugh:
 
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