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McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

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Richard said:
I'm guessing around 135, unfortunately. Games will get tighter and fatigue is a factor. No one has hit 150+ since like, what, 1996? Safe bet it doesn't occur again.
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Unless he misses 10 games down the stretch, there’s no way he’s finishing with under 140.

I peruse his game logs often and I’m almost positive that the worst 21 game stretch of his career would be when he closed out his rookie campaign with 20 points.
 
Richard said:
I'm guessing around 135, unfortunately. Games will get tighter and fatigue is a factor. No one has hit 150+ since like, what, 1996? Safe bet it doesn't occur again.
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McDavid has traditionally finished very strong and while there is a tough stretch coming up the last 12 games of the season include 3 vs SJ, 2 vs Anaheim, 2 vs Arizona and two vs LA, a team that can give up goals with the best of them. If he does not get hurt 135 would be a bit of a disaster for the Oilers as it would mean McDavid was in one of the worst 21 game slumps of his career. If he plays all 82 games as of now 150 is probably a better than 50-50 bet.
 
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I thought he'd need 4 4-point games in his last 25 to give himself some buffer in order to hit 150. Already has 2 of those under his belt (plus a 3 and 2 point game for good measure).

I don't think there's anyway he doesn't have another few multi point games left in him. All it will really take at this point is one big game and he'll have tons of wiggle room.
 
Kerberos said:
I thought he'd need 4 4-point games in his last 25 to give himself some buffer in order to hit 150. Already has 2 of those under his belt (plus a 3 and 2 point game for good measure).

I don't think there's anyway he doesn't have another few multi point games left in him. All it will really take at this point is one big game and he'll have tons of wiggle room.
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Would really like to see him pop off for 5 or 6 points down the stretch at least once, hopefully twice to really create that buffer for worst case scenario.

His only 6 point game came over 3 years ago. He’s had four 5 point games since then and one came this season (12/30/22).

Perhaps unlikely, but hopefully he nabs one and 2 more 4 point games as you mentioned because that would leave just 22 points to pick up across the other 18 games.

Who am I kidding? I want to see him go supernova and join Gretzky and Lemieux in the 160 point club haha.
 
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Richard said:
I'm guessing around 135, unfortunately. Games will get tighter and fatigue is a factor. No one has hit 150+ since like, what, 1996? Safe bet it doesn't occur again.
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It's not a safe bet at all.

A safe bet is that he easily finishes with at least 10 points more than your total, assuming good health of course.
 
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TLEHMANN said:
yeah nice math pal.

Try 155
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Richard said:
I'm guessing around 135, unfortunately. Games will get tighter and fatigue is a factor. No one has hit 150+ since like, what, 1996? Safe bet it doesn't occur again.
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What an uninformed take. To the bolded: not sure if anyone's been on pace for 135 points after 61 games since 1996, let alone 150+ points. That is to say, no points of reference exist, even though you hint they do. Only a quarter of the season left. Once you hold a certain pace for long enough, not reaching a given lofty threshold becomes unlikely.
 
He’s so damn consistent with his 2-3 points, but would love for him to get some luck and have a monster 5-6 point outing somewhere down the stretch.
 
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jigglysquishy said:
You think he only gets 20 points in his last 21 games?

He has 40 in his last 21.

He had 38 in his last 21 last year.

If he plays 82 he hits 145-155.
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If I’m not mistaken you have to go back to his 2nd season to find a 21 game stretch where he went under a point/game.

And that poster wants us to believe that that’s going to suddenly happen again in the midst of McDavid’s likely peak while he’s chasing 150? Alrighty then.
 
Edm has a tough schedule the next few weeks so we will see how he does. I’m rooting for him to hit 150
 
I don't know if he can keep the 155 pace up the rest of the way, but he has basically clinched the Art Ross right now. If Leon keeps his pace he will hit 120, which is only 5 better than Connor right now. Kucherov a little less than 120.

Someone near the top would have to blow the doors off the thing to catch him and most of the guys at the top are already producing well past their previous bests. Impressive stuff.
 
It would be sure crazy if he challenged some of Gretzky's records in the next few years. He's still young enough and still improving IMO. Pretty crazy what he's doing.
 
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