GDT: Maybe Ol’ AD Keeps The Streak Going

[hblueridgegal]

Well, in many sports, they say defense wins championships. Hope they aren’t too exhausted by that time.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Well, in many sports, they say defense wins championships. Hope they aren’t too exhausted by that time.

I wish they had a ratio to make it adjusted based on quality competition percentage played against. Them 200 minute bottom pairings are unfairly pumped up in this. All those above 400 minutes likely play a good chunk against 1st and/or 2nd lines

 

[surfzone365]

Still pissed about this one, probably more than the other recent blown games as of late. I echo the sentiment that their heads dont seem to be in it as of late. Playing down to competition? All good teams have a tendency to do that on occasion. Not expecting Game 7 type effort in early January but need to not make coughing up gimme points a habit.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Well, in many sports, they say defense wins championships. Hope they aren’t too exhausted by that time.

I was curious what the top 4 toi/gp was vs. prior seasons:

Slavin: 1 min/game less than last season, 30s / game less than 2 season's ago
20-21: 22:59
21-22: 23:32
22-23: 22:32

Burns: 2.5 min / game less than prior two seasons
20-21: 26:09
21-22: 26:09
22-23: 23:32

Pesce: 1 min/game more than last year (driven by PP TOI), about the same as 2 years ago
20-21: 22:48
21-22: 21:41
22-23: 22:39 (uptick from last year due to PP)

Skjei: 23s/game more than last year, 50s more per game than two seasons ago.
20-21: 20:44
21-22: 21:09
22-23: 21:32

 

[Svechhammer]

Well, in many sports, they say defense wins championships. Hope they aren’t too exhausted by that time.

Yeah well even if you agree with defense wins championships mindset, which I do, we aren't the best defensive team on that list. That would be Boston. And shockingly, Toronto isn't that far behind. And both of those teams have the offensive firepower to completely swing a 7 game series against us.

So, at a certain point we have to fix the offense. We aren't a defensive unicorn, other teams are able to match us defensively, so the deciding factors will be elsewhere. That alone should really concern us even more about our poor shooting % and terrible PP numbers if our end goal really is to win the Cup.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Yeah well even if you agree with defense wins championships mindset, which I do, we aren't the best defensive team on that list. That would be Boston. And shockingly, Toronto isn't that far behind. And both of those teams have the offensive firepower to completely swing a 7 game series against us.

Not true based on the metric used in this chart. You can't take individual pairings and make a team conclusion, especially without the factors @Gocanes0506 mentioned. When looking at entire TEAM metrics for 5v5 xGA/60:
#1: Carolina
#2: Minnesota
#3: Boston
#4: LAK
#5: NJD

When looking at xGF/60
#1: Carolina
#2: NJD
#3: Boston
#4: TBL
#5: CGY

So, at a certain point we have to fix the offense. We aren't a defensive unicorn, other teams are able to match us defensively, so the deciding factors will be elsewhere. That alone should really concern us even more about our poor shooting % and terrible PP numbers if our end goal really is to win the Cup.

I agree, we need to convert more chances and more importantly get a decent PP.

 

[hblueridgegal]

I was curious what the top 4 toi/gp was vs. prior seasons:

Slavin: 1 min/game less than last season, 30s / game less than 2 season's ago
20-21: 22:59
21-22: 23:32
22-23: 22:32

Burns: 2.5 min / game less than prior two seasons
20-21: 26:09
21-22: 26:09
22-23: 23:32

Pesce: 1 min/game more than last year (driven by PP TOI), about the same as 2 years ago
20-21: 22:48
21-22: 21:41
22-23: 22:39 (uptick from last year due to PP)

Skjei: 23s/game more than last year, 50s more per game than two seasons ago.
20-21: 20:44
21-22: 21:09
22-23: 21:32

Unfortunately, in the playoffs, “ nothing left in the tank” was one of the excuses or explanations given for the outcome - particularly, the lovely Rangers game 7.

For all their bravado, I still believe confidence and adaptability issues are a greater concern. Stuff happens within the game, with the line up, etc. Suck it up and deal with it better instead of letting it lead to a derailment. However, their style of play leading to exhaustion or low energy in certain circumstances is often mentioned here, too, as a concern.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Unfortunately, in the playoffs, “ nothing left in the tank” was one of the excuses or explanations given for the outcome - particularly, the lovely Rangers game 7.

Agree, I didn't buy it then and don't now.

For all their bravado, I still believe confidence and adaptability issues are a greater concern. Stuff happens within the game, with the line up, etc. Suck it up and deal with it better instead of letting it lead to a derailment.

Problem is that's one of those "hard to assess things" but won't discount it either as I'm not in the dressing room so it's a possibility.

Personally, I feel it's more about they don't have enough high end talent. They can outwork teams in the regular season, but everyone works hard in the playoffs and teams ramp up the physical play against us. In the end, skill is what makes the difference. We've primarily been out-special teamed and out goaltender in the playoffs, which for me is a skill issue.

We were an inferior team talent wise to Boston and TB when we lost to them, but I really felt we were a better team than NYR going into that series (other than in goal, which is huge). We couldn't stop their PP. Would have been nice to face them with a #1 goalie though.

That said, STL won a cup recently without the very high end skill that TB and COL has, so it can be done. I just hope our goaltending holds up as nothing else will matter if we enter the playoffs with a 2nd/3rd string goalie.

 

[hblueridgegal]

I am hoping the post All-Star break play is better this year and more entertaining. Last season, it was like kinda like watching the slow death of a season with anticipatory grieving for the playoffs. Keep us guessing!

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

We are within 8 points of the 1st place team that is on a ridiculous tear this season. And we’re on a 119 point pace. A little perspective.

 

[Svechhammer]

We are within 8 points of the 1st place team that is on a ridiculous tear this season. And we’re on a 119 point pace. A little perspective.

We were on a similar pace last year and got bounced for many of the same reasons we are concerned about now to a team that wasn't as good as us. Eventually, regular season success will begin to ring hollow if it doesn't convert to playoff success.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

We are within 8 points of the 1st place team that is on a ridiculous tear this season. And we’re on a 119 point pace. A little perspective.

Another perspective: We have lost the last 3 playoffs because of the special teams battle and we currently have a 26th ranked PP.

There are normal ups and downs within a season and I realize there are some that are over-reacting, which is common in a GDT or right after a loss, but I do think it's a valid discussion about what still needs to improve if we want success in the playoffs. The team is doing fine for the regular season but there's no denying it still has room to improve, particularly in terms of the PP.

 

[Tryamw]

We are within 8 points of the 1st place team that is on a ridiculous tear this season. And we’re on a 119 point pace. A little perspective.

We suck less than we could?

 

[bleedgreen]

We are within 8 points of the 1st place team that is on a ridiculous tear this season. And we’re on a 119 point pace. A little perspective.

Like others are saying, we’ve become the regular season kings of winning jack shit when it matters.

There’s no underlying numbers to convince we’re any different than last year (are there?) so there’s no reason to dismiss concerns. Especially when comparing the rosters. Burns to TDA may be a mild defensive improvement but otherwise it’s a wash to me, Trocheck has left a large gap in a crucial spot and those were two spots we needed equaled just to be where we were last year…which wasn’t good enough last year especially on special teams. Patches seems like a good idea? He should help.

You’re right, we’re still a good team. Still room for improvement in the areas we’ve needed the most improvement for awhile though, special teams and healthy goaltending.

Hard to say what makes a team like this a champion from one year to the next. The right mix of opponents in the playoffs? A little luck? Sure. A shitty pp IS something you can control more than those other two things. We’ve got a great top four defensive core, and it still feels like we’re short one good pp guy….and one good defensive dman on the third pair. If the right guy was available I could see our big deadline deal being for a dman that brought a bit of both. Someone you’d normally expect to see higher up in a lineup.

 

[Borsig]

Like others are saying, we’ve become the regular season kings of winning jack shit when it matters.

There’s no underlying numbers to convince we’re any different than last year (are there?) so there’s no reason to dismiss concerns. Especially when comparing the rosters. Burns to TDA may be a mild defensive improvement but otherwise it’s a wash to me, Trocheck has left a large gap in a crucial spot and those were two spots we needed equaled just to be where we were last year…which wasn’t good enough last year especially on special teams. Patches seems like a good idea? He should help.

You’re right, we’re still a good team. Still room for improvement in the areas we’ve needed the most improvement for awhile though, special teams and healthy goaltending.

Hard to say what makes a team like this a champion from one year to the next. The right mix of opponents in the playoffs? A little luck? Sure. A shitty pp IS something you can control more than those other two things. We’ve got a great top four defensive core, and it still feels like we’re short one good pp guy….and one good defensive dman on the third pair. If the right guy was available I could see our big deadline deal being for a dman that brought a bit of both. Someone you’d normally expect to see higher up in a lineup.

You mean like TDA?

Just Saying.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

You mean like TDA?

Just Saying.

Our PP was no better the 2nd half of last season and in the playoffs with TDA running it.

That said, he'd be better on the 2nd unit than what we have. Not at $5M though.

 

[Chrispy]

Our PP was no better the 2nd half of last season and in the playoffs with TDA running it.

That said, he'd be better on the 2nd unit than what we have. Not at $5M though.

Which makes last season the most interesting one to review for me:

What changed in the PP from the first half to second half of the season? Were teams clogging passing lanes more and daring TDA and other point men to shoot? If so, are they still doing so this year with Burns's shot at the point, or are those passing lanes more open now?

 

[Borsig]

Which makes last season the most interesting one to review for me:

What changed in the PP from the first half to second half of the season? Were teams clogging passing lanes more and daring TDA and other point men to shoot? If so, are they still doing so this year with Burns's shot at the point, or are those passing lanes more open now?

TDA is still a better passer than any D man we have on this team, and most of our forwards.

5M is too much by far. How about TDA for phily's picks and and 2M retained?

 

[bleedgreen]

You mean like TDA?

Just Saying.

I bemoan the loss of Trocheck more, not because I thought he’s the perfect player or something. I just thought he was the perfect player for us. Physical, dominant RIGHTY faceoff guy (all four lefties now), defensively sound to the point Rod trusted him everywhere, a shoot first mentality with a great shot, team attitude, hungry to win, and he fit in great with the team. Are there better players out there? Of course. Replacing that on THIS team is a headache I don’t know that we can fix. I would’ve paid him over Tony every day of the week and twice on Sunday….and I was a fan of Tony’s. Horvat may be presumed to be a better player yet I don’t assume he would be a better fit than Tro was, but I’d take him.

Tony played great for us I thought tho, he was a lot like Necas has been for us so far this season imo. Both teams would’ve suffered to not have them. I do miss him and yeah I’d love to see him on the third pair.

Still, they’re gone. Blaming and bemoaning the past summers team building is more for the off season imo, we’re in the middle of this now and neither are coming back, and there’s still possible improvements to this team ahead of us we don’t see yet.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Another perspective: We have lost the last 3 playoffs because of the special teams battle and we currently have a 26th ranked PP.

There are normal ups and downs within a season and I realize there are some that are over-reacting, which is common in a GDT or right after a loss, but I do think it's a valid discussion about what still needs to improve if we want success in the playoffs. The team is doing fine for the regular season but there's no denying it still has room to improve, particularly in terms of the PP.

We lost against the Rangers in 5v5, our special teams just made the margins wider. Even if we had kept up with their 30% (or whatever the number was) PP in that series, we still would have lost.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

We were on a similar pace last year and got bounced for many of the same reasons we are concerned about now to a team that wasn't as good as us. Eventually, regular season success will begin to ring hollow if it doesn't convert to playoff success.

Playoffs are a crap shoot. We could be a mediocre WC team and still win the cup. Our concerns and strong points mean little come the playoffs. Its all about matchups, who gets hot, what the refs allow, and luck.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

We lost against the Rangers in 5v5, our special teams just made the margins wider. Even if we had kept up with their 30% (or whatever the number was) PP in that series, we still would have lost.

So what you are saying is that we should be also discussing what we need to do to improve our 5v5 to succeed in the playoffs even though we have achieved regular season success last year?

If so, I'm not sure what your complaint is

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

So what you are saying is that we should be also discussing what we need to do to improve our 5v5 to succeed in the playoffs even though we have achieved regular season success last year?

If so, I'm not sure what your complaint is, other than to complain?

I didn’t make a complaint at all. I pointed out our points pace. You made a point and i made a point. Is either of us complaining, really?

Goal scoring should always be addressed with this club. It ain’t just about the PP. The point was the sky ain’t falling and the playoffs aren’t the same as the regular season

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I didn’t make a complaint at all. I pointed out our points pace. You made a point and i made a point. Is either of us complaining really?

Goal scoring should always be addressed with this club. It ain’t just about the PP.

you edited your first post to say "a little perspective" vs. the sarcastic comment about "serious problems, hmmm." It read as you complaining about people discussing the team's problems. If that wasn't your intent, then fine, but that's how it read.

Anyhow perspective or not, would you agree that discussing this team's shortcomings on the PP and scoring goals is a valid discussion, even with the pace the team is currently on?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

you edited your first post to say "a little perspective" vs. the sarcastic comment about "serious problems, hmmm." It read as you complaining about people discussing the team's problems. If that wasn't your intent, then fine, but that's how it read.

Anyhow perspective or not, would you agree that discussing this team's shortcomings on the PP and scoring goals is a valid discussion, even with the pace the team is currently on?

I did edit it because I didn’t like the way it came off. So I changed the message to match my intent. Although I should edit out the perspective part as it seems folks took exception to that.

It would hypocritical of me to say discussing scoring issues is a problem. Im still a firm believer in adding meier and subtracting turbo because we need to score more. I also believe there is a lot more chicken little going on than a discussion. But I didn’t bring that up on purpose, I just slid in with the points pace and moved on.