GDT: Maybe Ol’ AD Keeps The Streak Going

[Sigurd]

Welp

Well, tonight at least, maybe if the guys in front of him played slightly better, it wouldn't have gone to a shootout, let alone overtime. Just a thought.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Welp

0 shock here. The schedule sets up perfectly over the next 12 days to have Andersen play them all and Raanta to heal. Let Koochie go back to Chicago and get more starts.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Ok what’d I miss ?

 

[Joe McGrath]

Welp

This shouldn’t be surprising. Freddy is going to get 75% of the starts and Koochie needs to play more than 25% of the time to develop.

 

[kdb527]

They keep saying they are a 4 line team. They are not They were out of gas because he is overplaying his top guys especially on a back to back. Look at TOI no wonder they don’t perform in the 3rd period

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

They keep saying they are a 4 line team. They are not They were out of gas because he is overplaying his top guys especially on a back to back. Look at TOI no wonder they don’t perform in the 3rd period

Or because we were double shifting forwards, maybe that is why they were tired. Or your narrative, whichever works for you. How many teams play their 4th line guys close to 1st lines? 0. But lets gloss over that for your narrative

 

[bleedgreen]

Koochie was always going to go back down eventually. Freddie is the starter, Raanta is the backup, Koochie is the injury fill in. I don’t think it mattered how many he won. He probably knew before he even played tonight, they likely gave him one for the road over Raanta. This has been a foregone conclusion since Freddie was close.

Rod stays true to his vision of the team, which has Freddie as the starter and Koochie in the future.

 

[HisIceness]

We'll see Koochie again.

 

[Wolfpuck]

We'll see Koochie again.

Hopefully sooner rather than later.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Coach was right: Team was flat and seemed tired. Bad effort.

Challenge is that we have a bunch of defensive forwards that don’t typically score and/or aren’t scoring and thus we get nights like tonight (and clearly impairs our SC chances).

Fast, Stephan, Stastny, TT, Jarvis, JK, Martinook, Staal are not high goal scorers and Necas and Svetch have slowed down a bunch (hopefully just a slump) as the season matures.

We need to get a much better 2C (who also is a good pk guy) as the key priority. 3rd pair with Chatfield is needed too and if that guy can lead a PP then reel him in.

Now how they do that while cap constrained is the issue.

 

[Negan4Coach]

I think it’s a development/coaching/systems issue. Naturally offensively gifted young players aren’t given as much room and freedom to play their natural style with how this team is coached. It’s also a market issue, Aho is a legitimate star, if he played on any of the big market teams he would be talked about constantly. We’ve started undervaluing him as a player, as I pointed out the other day lots of people here, and the broadcast team keep saying he needs to step it up yet he’s PPG, there ain’t a whole lot of stepping up for him to do.

To me it seems like a some of our young guys play scared of messing up their defensive assignments. And the ones that do play “the right way” don’t put up the offensive numbers to be included in that star player tier.

TB, BOS & COL either drafted and developed their stars or used analytics to identify young assets with unrealized or untapped potential. Towes in COL comes to mind, a highly analytical FO in COL took advantage of a relic in NYI to get a young defenseman that would be a #1 on about 90% of the teams in the league.

NYR gets the benefit of young players who want to play in the spotlight and live that big city lifestyle.

That's a fair enough assessment. But I thought Tulsky was the analytics guru.

Do you think Aho and Svech would be 40+ goal scorers in Tampa? Perhaps. Maybe they need to be allowed to play their natural game.

I thin they need to realize who they are and draft/trade accordingly.

"A man's got to know his limitations"- Dirty Harry

 

[Canes]

We'll see Koochie again.

I too remember my first day after being married.

 

[kdb527]

Or because we were double shifting forwards, maybe that is why they were tired. Or your narrative, whichever works for you. How many teams play their 4th line guys close to 1st lines? 0. But lets gloss over that for your narrative

No one said they should play them the same and the only narrative is they if you realize they are tired and consistently are not performing well in the 3rd why would you double shift them. Especially when your playing man down already

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

No one said they should play them the same and the only narrative is they if you realize they are tired and consistently are not performing well in the 3rd why would you double shift them. Especially when your playing man down already

Because fitness is the only reason to consider? I mean we have sucked in the 3rd period all season not just in the second game of a b2b. A few more reasons available here than dying on the we are overwhelming our top players hill.

 

[LakeLivin]

Koochie was always going to go back down eventually. Freddie is the starter, Raanta is the backup, Koochie is the injury fill in. I don’t think it mattered how many he won. He probably knew before he even played tonight, they likely gave him one for the road over Raanta. This has been a foregone conclusion since Freddie was close.

Rod stays true to his vision of the team, which has Freddie as the starter and Koochie in the future.

He was always going to go back down eventually. Until just maybe he wasn't. But then a couple bad games and yeah, he was.

What I'm saying is that he had a string playing so well I think if he had been able to keep it up they would have had little choice but to keep him up and figure out something creative with Raanta. I mean, Kooch was playing legit Vezina level for a while and even the way Brindy talked about him changed. Now granted, the odds of him continuing at that level were slim, but . . .

 

[kdb527]

Because fitness is the only reason to consider? I mean we have sucked in the 3rd period all season not just in the second game of a b2b. A few more reasons available here than dying on the we are overwhelming our top players hill.

No one is dying on that reason, It is a single observation that has merit especially when you can’t close out winnable games like tonight and he admitted that they were tired and flat

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

No one is dying on that reason, It is a single observation that has merit especially when you can’t close out winnable games like tonight and he admitted that they were tired and flat

Moving the goalposts is your specialty it would seem. 4 games in 6 days would tire anyone out, then add in we played a forward down today but somehow we aren’t playing our 4th liners enough… okay

 

[VAcaniac]

Probably would have lost my mind watching this so im glad I didn’t.

 

[ndp]

That's a fair enough assessment. But I thought Tulsky was the analytics guru.

Do you think Aho and Svech would be 40+ goal scorers in Tampa? Perhaps. Maybe they need to be allowed to play their natural game.

I thin they need to realize who they are and draft/trade accordingly.

"A man's got to know his limitations"- Dirty Harry

I’ve voiced it here before but I believe that there’s a disconnect between the FO when it comes to drafting/player evaluation and Rods style or system. I think they’re using analytics to draft and sign, player evaluation stuff, but then that’s where it stops. This is all stuff I’ve talked about numerous times before and I’m not going to rehash it here and now.

Personally don’t think a defense first dump and chase team will win a cup without a goalie giving them an absolutely dominant MVP performance. Fast skilled teams with coaches good at making adjustments will burn that ass up. Especially if a series turns into a special teams battle.

I may very well be totally wrong about that. And I would be over the moon to watch the Hurricanes bring home a championship dumping and chasing pucks the whole way there and back.

Sometimes it feels like they’ve got players playing in a system that just does not fit their play style and Rod has a hard time dealing with or adjusting to that. And it feels like it’s
gotten worse since he got another likely yes man on the bench with Timmy. It seems like they want every forward on the team to play exactly the same way, and guys like Jordan Martinook and Martin Necas are two very different players.

Players that fit into the system thrive in it and likely produce a little better than they would elsewhere, players that don’t thrive, likely produce a little less than they would on a different team. I do think Aho and Svech would both benefit from playing with each other regularly, at least have 2/3 of a 1st line. I know, I know, they historically put up more points away from each other, but this team is lacking that one line that has the offensive firepower to put the other team on their heels. That line that feels like a threat to score no matter who they’re playing against. To me that’s the difference between the Hurricanes and teams like TB, BOS, EDM, COL. I think they’ve got the pieces, they just don’t put them together, and leave them together for an extended period of time.

@Boom Boom Apathy any data out there that would show how much the top teams juggle their lines around?

For example, baring injury, do MacKinnon, Bergeron, Barkov, Matthews, Stamkos have more steady line mates than Aho?

Do they get the benefit of playing with top wingers from their teams?

What’s the average production from a top line center and winger on NHL playoff teams?

Anywho’s while there’s a shit-ton of things I think could be done differently I’m just glad they’re competitive. At the end of the day I’m just some dumbshit country bumpkin posting trash on a silly message board. And I’m way happier now than I was eight years ago with my favorite sports franchise.

 

[hblueridgegal]

This admission feels like progress.

 

[WreckingCrew]

This admission feels like progress.

What's his next revelation going to be? We suck at shooting? No shit Sherlock, a little late to the party

 

[Borsig]

What's his next revelation going to be? We suck at shooting? No shit Sherlock, a little late to the party

Well - No shit indeed....

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I really don't think the Canes problem is 5v5 for the most part.

The problem is, and has been special teams. The last few playoffs, the team got killed on special teams and until / unless they figure that out or get hot at the right time, they aren't going to go deep.

At 5v5, the Canes are
- 4th best in the NHL in GF% (goal scored/goals allowed).
- #1 at expected goals for / goals allowed.
- #4 at Scoring chances for %
- #2 at High Danger CF%
- Over the past 3 years, they are 9th in Goals scored / 60 min and 5th best in GF% in the NHL.

My point is that even with the lack of truly elite talent on this team, they are still one of the best 5v5 teams in the entire NHL. Their shooting % sucks this year so their goal scoring is down a bit compared to prior years, there is room for improvement in the team 5v5, no question, but they are playing well enough 5v5 to win most games and win playoff games.

The PP is where the team is failing: 26th in the NHL in PP goals / PP %. 11th in PK% which is respectable, but not as good as prior seasons. This team has had 153 PP chances and have a net 23 goals (28 Goals, 5 SH allowed). Good teams have 10-20 more net goals.

Just 10 more net goals on the PP would put them 8th in the NHL in goal scoring. That's what needs to be fixed first and foremost. Clearly this is a captain obvious statement.

 

[Svechhammer]

This admission feels like progress.

The problem is that when Brindy says this he's talking specifically about last night. Overall on the season he's repeatedly said it's just unlucky and every other excuse to ignore reality.

We cannot win the Cup with our current special teams. We can't.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Players that fit into the system thrive in it and likely produce a little better than they would elsewhere, players that don’t thrive, likely produce a little less than they would on a different team.

I've done this analysis before and other than guys that were still developing and got a bigger opportunity (Geekie for instance who only had 36 games in Carolina), I really didn't any forwards that really had their production change much at all elsewhere, except on the PP. (at least not enough to be statistically significant).

At 5v5:

Trocheck last year: 0.67 G/60; 1.87 P/60
Trocheck this year: 0.28 G/60; 1.28 P/60

Nino last year: 1.1 G/60; 2.27 P/60
Nino this year: 1.2G/60; 2.03 P/60

Domi w/Canes: 0.6 G/60; 2.09 P/60
Domi this year: 0.31 G/60; 1.33 P/60

Haula as a Cane: 0.98 G/60; 1.72 P/60
Haula since then: 0.57 G/60; 1.78 P/60

Foegele's Last year in Car: 0.8 G/60; 1.6 P/60
Foegele in Edmonton: 0.55 G/60; 1.31 P/60

Lorentz Last year: 0.69 G/60; 1.13 P/60
Lorentz this year: 0.56 G/60; 0.98 P/60

McGinn's Last year in Car: 0.9 G/60; 1.44 P/60
McGinn's in Pittsburgh: 0.82 G/60; 1.45 P/60

Am I missing anyone? I really don't see anything that screams better or worse since moving on from the Canes.

@Boom Boom Apathy any data out there that would show how much the top teams juggle their lines around?

You can derive it from Natural Stat trick. Moneypuck might work as well so if I get a chance I'll take a look at it.