- Jul 30, 2016
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Maurice Richard Trophy Tournament (1995-Present) Round 3: 2024 Auston Matthews vs 2009 Alexander Ovechkin
- Thread starter blundluntman
- Start date
Leads over the peers would probably be more informative than average goals per game, because the latter assume Matthews|OV peer was an average skater.
For example, #2 in goal-scoring was at 57 in 23/24 and at 46 in 08/09. So, Matthews was 21% ahead of #2 and OV was 22% ahead of his #2 - virtual tie with a slight edge to OV.
Upd. #5 was at 49 in 23/24 and at 40 in 08/09 - 41% lead Matthews, 40% lead OV.
#10 was at 44 in 23/24 and at 39 in 08/09 - 57% lead Matthews, 44% lead OV
#20 was at 37 in 23/24 and at 33 in 08/09 - 86% lead Matthews, 70% lead OV
So kind of depends on who the peer is - they look similar compared to goal-scoring stars of their eras, but Matthews has a larger edge over "just a very good goal-scorer" of an era.
For example, #2 in goal-scoring was at 57 in 23/24 and at 46 in 08/09. So, Matthews was 21% ahead of #2 and OV was 22% ahead of his #2 - virtual tie with a slight edge to OV.
Upd. #5 was at 49 in 23/24 and at 40 in 08/09 - 41% lead Matthews, 40% lead OV.
#10 was at 44 in 23/24 and at 39 in 08/09 - 57% lead Matthews, 44% lead OV
#20 was at 37 in 23/24 and at 33 in 08/09 - 86% lead Matthews, 70% lead OV
So kind of depends on who the peer is - they look similar compared to goal-scoring stars of their eras, but Matthews has a larger edge over "just a very good goal-scorer" of an era.
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The90
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- Feb 27, 2017
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I’ll take the 15 more even strength goals + defensive play, thanks
I don't think the Richard tournament asks about defensive play, we are supposed to look at goal-scoring only.
But if we are allowed to talk about things not relevant to the voting, I'd rather take the season with the Hart/Lindsay.
The90
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Do they ask about more goals even without being a black hole defensively? I’m new to this.
I Hate Blake Coleman
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08-09 Ovechkin didn't need to play defense because he was so much f***ing better than everyone else. He tilted the ice.
This isn't waiting for the one-timer at the top of the circle OV. 08-09 was still prime/peak/best in the world OV.
Did you watch him that season?
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I wonder if anyone can do an analysis of how they did against PO/non-PO teams.
I believe we are not allowed to bring the real PO into the picture, but maybe 10 goals in 14 games vs. 1 goal in 5 games were predictable from RS stats.
I believe we are not allowed to bring the real PO into the picture, but maybe 10 goals in 14 games vs. 1 goal in 5 games were predictable from RS stats.
The comments in this thread are very confusing, we have one person talking about goal scoring and goal scoring alone and another talking about player impact and another talking about overall player dynamics in addition to goal scoring.
It's not the topic of this specific thread but I would rather compare OV's 65 goal season to Matthew's 69 goal season. Unless or until that happens I'm going with AM34
I Hate Blake Coleman
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I was simply correcting the misconception that 09 OV is the OV we know now. Matthews absolutely had a better goal scoring season. OV was absolutely the better player.
filinski77
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I generally don't really care about who you score the goals against, a goal is a goal - and helps the team win games. Look at the leafs this season, they just got blown out twice by 2 terrible teams that won't make the playoffs. Some Matthews goals to help them win those games would have been great for them.
That aside - here's the data. Ovi 2009 scored much better against high-ranked teams (relative to his full season result) than Matthews did.
| Ovechkin | GP | G | G/GP | |
| Whole season | 79 | 56 | 0.71 | |
| Top-10 teams | 21 | 15 | 0.71 | 101% |
| Top-16 teams | 44 | 28 | 0.64 | 90% |
| Top-20 teams | 50 | 32 | 0.64 | 90% |
| 20th or worst teams | 30 | 24 | 0.80 | 113% |
| Matthews | GP | G | G/GP | |
| Whole season | 81 | 69 | 0.85 | |
| Top-10 teams | 26 | 16 | 0.62 | 72% |
| Top-16 teams | 39 | 24 | 0.62 | 72% |
| Top-20 teams | 49 | 33 | 0.67 | 79% |
| 20th or worst teams | 34 | 40 | 1.18 | 138% |
The whole lead over peers thing can get overblown as often it tells us more about other players than the actual player in question.
Took AM here and frankly it wasn't close.
filinski77
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Voted Matthews even though it is definitely very close. This is most likely his best goal scoring season vs. Ovechkin's 3rd of even 4th imo.
Overall: Extremely close actually, goal scoring was way up in 2024 of course, but Matthews pulls ahead with the 10th place dominance.
To anyone seeing the 50 ESG and using that purely as a basis point, worth noting that Even-Strength goal scoring is up significantly from back then (more ESG TOI, lower save % etc.). Both were by far the best even-strength goal scorers in their respective seasons, but Matthews definitely has an edge. But it's no-where near as cut and dry as 36 vs. 51 (nor do I think ESG is really that important vs. overall goals).
Overall: Extremely close actually, goal scoring was way up in 2024 of course, but Matthews pulls ahead with the 10th place dominance.
| Goals | % | Goals | % | ||
| Ovi | 56 | Matthews | 69 | ||
| #2 | 46 | 22% | #2 | 57 | 21% |
| #3 | 45 | 24% | #3 | 54 | 28% |
| #5 | 40 | 40% | #5 | 49 | 41% |
| #10 | 39 | 44% | #10 | 44 | 57% |
To anyone seeing the 50 ESG and using that purely as a basis point, worth noting that Even-Strength goal scoring is up significantly from back then (more ESG TOI, lower save % etc.). Both were by far the best even-strength goal scorers in their respective seasons, but Matthews definitely has an edge. But it's no-where near as cut and dry as 36 vs. 51 (nor do I think ESG is really that important vs. overall goals).
| ESG | % | ESG | % | ||
| Ovi | 36 | Matthews | 51 | ||
| #2 | 31 | 16% | #2 | 41 | 24% |
| #3 | 31 | 16% | #3 | 39 | 31% |
| #5 | 29 | 24% | #5 | 35 | 46% |
| #10 | 26 | 38% | #10 | 31 | 65% |
I think the data is interesting, but I tend to agree with your thoughts, especially in the cap era. The playoffs are harder to make than ever, and the parity between teams is pretty strong. Plus smaller samples lead to more variance. I think it would tell us a bit more if it was in the 70s or 80s and over a multi season sample. I did look at their ‘08 and ‘22 seasons and Matthews was stronger there against top teams than he was in ‘24, though Ovi was still a bit better in ‘08
- Jul 30, 2016
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Yeah this tournament is solely focused on who was the better goal scorer in their respective season. It’s fine if someone wants to argue a player who focused on other facets of the game and scored goals more efficiently/effortlessly was better for that reason; and vice versa if someone wants to argue a player inflated their totals by Cherry picking and shooting at high volumes due to lesser responsibilities. I wouldn’t make the latter argument for 08-09 Ovi obviously but both lines of rhetoric are fair game as long as it’s relevant to their goal scoring
Well, if one guy switches from a 70-goal-per-season self to a 50-goal-per-season persona if facing a playoff team and the other guy maintains his goal-scoring pace even against top10 teams in the league, the writing is on the wall as long as playoffs are concerned.
I'd say if the goal-scoring is reasonably close (and it is), then give me the guy who is much harder to shut down.
Only if we assume that those sample sizes are meaningful. But realistically this is pretty problematic because it ignores that teams are hot and cold throughout a season and go through injuries as well. Scoring against Edmonton in the first month last year is pretty meaningless compared to the end of the season. Scoring against a team’s Vezina goalie is different than scoring against their backup. Score effects can also come into play. You might score the last goal in a 6-2 win against a playoff team and it’s not really more indicative of ability than scoring the only goal in a 1-0 win against a team that just misses. Unless we go through everything with a fine toothed comb I’m not sure if we can really put much stock into this
Pretty much all that applies to any playoff run: small sample, injuries, hot/cold spells, scoring in blowout/close games... And yet people tend to place a ton of weight on PO runs and PO scoring.
In RS splits we at least have 40 games against PO/non-PO teams. PO runs are always 20ish games or less.
Yea I mean realistically the emphasis on playoffs are mostly narrative driven and over enough games 90% of players end up with similar numbers just slightly off the regular season
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