Maurice Richard Trophy Tournament (1995-Present) Round 3: 2024 Auston Matthews vs 2009 Alexander Ovechkin

[blundluntman]

MATCHUP #1 (Round 3): Auston Matthews (2024) vs Alexander Ovechkin (2009)

Auston Matthews (2023-24):

Games Played	Goals	Even Strength Goals	Power Play Goals	League Wide Goals Per Game
81	69	51	18	3.11

Alexander Ovechkin (2008-09):

Games Played	Goals	Even Strength Goals	Power Play Goals	League Wide Goals Per Game
79	56	36	19	2.91

Round 3 Matchups
24 Matthews vs 09 Ovechkin
23 McDavid vs 12 Stamkos
21 Matthews vs 08 Ovi
00 Bure vs 96 Lemieux

Round 2 Results

Click to read more...

 

[Zuluss]

Leads over the peers would probably be more informative than average goals per game, because the latter assume Matthews|OV peer was an average skater.

For example, #2 in goal-scoring was at 57 in 23/24 and at 46 in 08/09. So, Matthews was 21% ahead of #2 and OV was 22% ahead of his #2 - virtual tie with a slight edge to OV.

Upd. #5 was at 49 in 23/24 and at 40 in 08/09 - 41% lead Matthews, 40% lead OV.
#10 was at 44 in 23/24 and at 39 in 08/09 - 57% lead Matthews, 44% lead OV
#20 was at 37 in 23/24 and at 33 in 08/09 - 86% lead Matthews, 70% lead OV

So kind of depends on who the peer is - they look similar compared to goal-scoring stars of their eras, but Matthews has a larger edge over "just a very good goal-scorer" of an era.

 

[The90]

Leads over the peers would probably be more informative than average goals per game, because the latter assume Matthews|OV peer was an average skater.

For example, #2 in goal-scoring was at 57 in 23/24 and at 46 in 08/09. So, Matthews was 21% ahead of #2 and OV was 22% ahead of his #2 - virtual tie with a slight edge to OV.

I’ll take the 15 more even strength goals + defensive play, thanks

 

[Zuluss]

I’ll take the 15 more even strength goals + defensive play, thanks

I don't think the Richard tournament asks about defensive play, we are supposed to look at goal-scoring only.
But if we are allowed to talk about things not relevant to the voting, I'd rather take the season with the Hart/Lindsay.

 

[The90]

I don't think the Richard tournament asks about defensive play, we are supposed to look at goal-scoring only.
But if we are allowed to talk about things not relevant to the voting, I'd rather take the season with the Hart/Lindsay.

Do they ask about more goals even without being a black hole defensively? I’m new to this.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Do they ask about more goals even without being a black hole defensively? I’m new to this.

08-09 Ovechkin didn't need to play defense because he was so much f***ing better than everyone else. He tilted the ice.

This isn't waiting for the one-timer at the top of the circle OV. 08-09 was still prime/peak/best in the world OV.

Did you watch him that season?

 

[Zuluss]

I wonder if anyone can do an analysis of how they did against PO/non-PO teams.
I believe we are not allowed to bring the real PO into the picture, but maybe 10 goals in 14 games vs. 1 goal in 5 games were predictable from RS stats.

 

[Ignatius]

08-09 Ovechkin didn't need to play defense because he was so much f***ing better than everyone else. He tilted the ice.

This isn't waiting for the one-timer at the top of the circle OV. 08-09 was still prime/peak/best in the world OV.

Did you watch him that season?

The comments in this thread are very confusing, we have one person talking about goal scoring and goal scoring alone and another talking about player impact and another talking about overall player dynamics in addition to goal scoring.

It's not the topic of this specific thread but I would rather compare OV's 65 goal season to Matthew's 69 goal season. Unless or until that happens I'm going with AM34

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

The comments in this thread are very confusing, we have one person talking about goal scoring and goal scoring alone and another talking about player impact and another talking about overall player dynamics in addition to goal scoring.

It's not the topic of this specific thread but I would rather compare OV's 65 goal season to Matthew's 69 goal season. Unless or until that happens I'm going with AM34

I was simply correcting the misconception that 09 OV is the OV we know now. Matthews absolutely had a better goal scoring season. OV was absolutely the better player.

 

[filinski77]

I wonder if anyone can do an analysis of how they did against PO/non-PO teams.
I believe we are not allowed to bring the real PO into the picture, but maybe 10 goals in 14 games vs. 1 goal in 5 games were predictable from RS stats.

I generally don't really care about who you score the goals against, a goal is a goal - and helps the team win games. Look at the leafs this season, they just got blown out twice by 2 terrible teams that won't make the playoffs. Some Matthews goals to help them win those games would have been great for them.

That aside - here's the data. Ovi 2009 scored much better against high-ranked teams (relative to his full season result) than Matthews did.

Ovechkin	GP	G	G/GP
Whole season	79​	56​	0.71
Top-10 teams	21​	15​	0.71	101%​
Top-16 teams	44​	28​	0.64	90%​
Top-20 teams	50​	32​	0.64	90%​
20th or worst teams	30​	24​	0.80	113%​

Matthews	GP	G	G/GP
Whole season	81​	69​	0.85
Top-10 teams	26​	16​	0.62	72%​
Top-16 teams	39​	24​	0.62	72%​
Top-20 teams	49​	33​	0.67	79%​
20th or worst teams	34​	40​	1.18	138%​

 

[wetcoast]

Leads over the peers would probably be more informative than average goals per game, because the latter assume Matthews|OV peer was an average skater.

For example, #2 in goal-scoring was at 57 in 23/24 and at 46 in 08/09. So, Matthews was 21% ahead of #2 and OV was 22% ahead of his #2 - virtual tie with a slight edge to OV.

Upd. #5 was at 49 in 23/24 and at 40 in 08/09 - 41% lead Matthews, 40% lead OV.
#10 was at 44 in 23/24 and at 39 in 08/09 - 57% lead Matthews, 44% lead OV
#20 was at 37 in 23/24 and at 33 in 08/09 - 86% lead Matthews, 70% lead OV

So kind of depends on who the peer is - they look similar compared to goal-scoring stars of their eras, but Matthews has a larger edge over "just a very good goal-scorer" of an era.

The whole lead over peers thing can get overblown as often it tells us more about other players than the actual player in question.

Took AM here and frankly it wasn't close.

 

[filinski77]

Voted Matthews even though it is definitely very close. This is most likely his best goal scoring season vs. Ovechkin's 3rd of even 4th imo.

Overall: Extremely close actually, goal scoring was way up in 2024 of course, but Matthews pulls ahead with the 10th place dominance.

	Goals	%		Goals	%
Ovi	56​		Matthews	69​
#2	46​	22%​	#2	57​	21%​
#3	45​	24%​	#3	54​	28%​
#5	40​	40%​	#5	49​	41%​
#10	39​	44%​	#10	44​	57%​

To anyone seeing the 50 ESG and using that purely as a basis point, worth noting that Even-Strength goal scoring is up significantly from back then (more ESG TOI, lower save % etc.). Both were by far the best even-strength goal scorers in their respective seasons, but Matthews definitely has an edge. But it's no-where near as cut and dry as 36 vs. 51 (nor do I think ESG is really that important vs. overall goals).

	ESG	%		ESG	%
Ovi	36​		Matthews	51​
#2	31​	16%​	#2	41​	24%​
#3	31​	16%​	#3	39​	31%​
#5	29​	24%​	#5	35​	46%​
#10	26​	38%​	#10	31​	65%​

 

[Regal]

I generally don't really care about who you score the goals against, a goal is a goal - and helps the team win games. Look at the leafs this season, they just got blown out twice by 2 terrible teams that won't make the playoffs. Some Matthews goals to help them win those games would have been great for them.

That aside - here's the data. Ovi 2009 scored much better against high-ranked teams (relative to his full season result) than Matthews did.

Ovechkin	GP	G	G/GP
Whole season	79​	56​	0.71
Top-10 teams	21​	15​	0.71	101%​
Top-16 teams	44​	28​	0.64	90%​
Top-20 teams	50​	32​	0.64	90%​
20th or worst teams	30​	24​	0.80	113%​

Matthews	GP	G	G/GP
Whole season	81​	69​	0.85
Top-10 teams	26​	16​	0.62	72%​
Top-16 teams	39​	24​	0.62	72%​
Top-20 teams	49​	33​	0.67	79%​
20th or worst teams	34​	40​	1.18	138%​

I think the data is interesting, but I tend to agree with your thoughts, especially in the cap era. The playoffs are harder to make than ever, and the parity between teams is pretty strong. Plus smaller samples lead to more variance. I think it would tell us a bit more if it was in the 70s or 80s and over a multi season sample. I did look at their ‘08 and ‘22 seasons and Matthews was stronger there against top teams than he was in ‘24, though Ovi was still a bit better in ‘08

 

[blundluntman]

I don't think the Richard tournament asks about defensive play, we are supposed to look at goal-scoring only.
But if we are allowed to talk about things not relevant to the voting, I'd rather take the season with the Hart/Lindsay.

Yeah this tournament is solely focused on who was the better goal scorer in their respective season. It’s fine if someone wants to argue a player who focused on other facets of the game and scored goals more efficiently/effortlessly was better for that reason; and vice versa if someone wants to argue a player inflated their totals by Cherry picking and shooting at high volumes due to lesser responsibilities. I wouldn’t make the latter argument for 08-09 Ovi obviously but both lines of rhetoric are fair game as long as it’s relevant to their goal scoring

 

[Cup or Bust]

I will never argue against 69.