Prospect Info: Matthew Tkachuk or PL Dubois (Round 3)

[Zombotron]

I went back 10 pages...what did HW say ?

.

Here you go:

A lot of rumblings that after the combine and interviews Logan Brown has moved into the top five. Primarily because of his size and the fact he is a true centre. One GM is comparing him to Joe Thorton.

He measured in at 6'7" with growth potential of another 1-2 inches. Most scouts agree he needs to put on another 25-30lbs which puts him at a development curve of a minimum of two years before he is NHL ready.

His personality has won over a number of GM's, calling him funny, intelligent, competitive, confident, polite and very social.

 

[oceanchild]

Here you go:

Thanks

 

[thefeebster]

Brown doesn't strike me as some low upside mid-round pick. He's a high variance swing-for-the-fences type. His biggest shortcomings appear to be "effort" and "intensity", which can be easily addressed with the right coach. He's a rather tantalizing prospect, really. I'd raise an eyebrow if we took him over a Dubois or Tkachuk, but I wouldn't feel the need to open my wrist.

From a drafting philosophy aspect (removed from Brown), has anyone really found this to be true? IMO, in recent history, this has not been the case. From what i can see, effort/intensity is something like a player's physical assertiveness/willingness; it's either there or it'll generally plague a player throughout their career.

Take Jensen. He was a highly inconsistent player, whose effort wavered game by game. Had the ability to dominate games, had the ability to be invisible. This was his greatest flaw in the OHL, in his draft season. This carried over to draft+1, then the fanbase as a whole became blinded by his goal production in the SEL at the time, but ignored his frequent benchings by the coach for not playing a complete game or team game, due to his inconsistent effort. This effort/consistency issue has continued to plague him.

Besides Getzlaf, who is becoming more of an exception than rule, I don't know who could qualify?

 

[topheavyhookjaw]

Where did I say all professional scouts are dumb?

In fact, I'm relying a lot on production results and professional scouts to formulate my opinion. So yes, me saying one scout (probably ours and we all know how our scouting track record has been) who prefers Brown over Tkachuk is an idiot is probably accurate and warranted.

Except you've basically established you don't have an opinion. You've said Tkachuk is ranked higher and scored more points, so anyone who would think Brown is a better prospect should be fired as a scout. I'm not asking you to rank Brown higher, I think myself and other posters, would take your absolute statements more seriously if presented any insight is all.

 

[WonderTwinsUnite]

From a drafting philosophy aspect (removed from Brown), has anyone really found this to be true? IMO, in recent history, this has not been the case. From what i can see, effort/intensity is something like a player's physical assertiveness/willingness; it's either there or it'll generally plague a player throughout their career.

Take Jensen. He was a highly inconsistent player, whose effort wavered game by game. Had the ability to dominate games, had the ability to be invisible. This was his greatest flaw in the OHL, in his draft season. This carried over to draft+1, then the fanbase as a whole became blinded by his goal production in the SEL at the time, but ignored his frequent benchings by the coach for not playing a complete game or team game, due to his inconsistent effort. This effort/consistency issue has continued to plague him.

Besides Getzlaf, who is becoming more of an exception than rule, I don't know who could qualify?

Wasn't that also the knock on Brandon Saad?

 

[topheavyhookjaw]

From a drafting philosophy aspect (removed from Brown), has anyone really found this to be true? IMO, in recent history, this has not been the case. From what i can see, effort/intensity is something like a player's physical assertiveness/willingness; it's either there or it'll generally plague a player throughout their career.

Take Jensen. He was a highly inconsistent player, whose effort wavered game by game. Had the ability to dominate games, had the ability to be invisible. This was his greatest flaw in the OHL, in his draft season. This carried over to draft+1, then the fanbase as a whole became blinded by his goal production in the SEL at the time, but ignored his frequent benchings by the coach for not playing a complete game or team game, due to his inconsistent effort. This effort/consistency issue has continued to plague him.

Besides Getzlaf, who is becoming more of an exception than rule, I don't know who could qualify?

Yeah 'motor' concerns are troublesome. I think big guys tend to get labeled with it more because at young ages their fitness is often not there and some certainly look like they've struggled growing into their bodies relative to the guys who are that 5'11"-6'1" range and look balanced and comfortable all the time. But I don't think from the limited viewings I've had of Brown that the motor concerns are unfounded.

I also really wonder if the type of coaching/development staff you have as an organization matters. Philosophically I feel like teams have to target things, do you want to coach skills into higher motor players, emphasize physical development and conditioning to high-IQ small/slight/overweight players, coach effort and hustle into talented projectable kids? I don't think many organizations have the resources to do all of those things.

To the decision facing the Canucks, given the shallowness they have in the prospect ranks, can you afford the risk in your #5 overall selection to be motor/effort? I don't think so. The high floors that Tkachuk and Dubois have to me matter a lot to the Canucks scenario.

The counterpoint is at his size, and given a report quoted in here that he could still grow a bit, is Brown beyond comparables? Is there a 6'7"-6'8" skill forward comp, a centre no less, if that's where he tops out at? Basically a unicorn, so projecting his development is nearly impossible.

 

[Horse McHindu]

I still don't think its completely out of the realm of possibility that Puljiujarvi drops to us. Obviously, PLD or Son of Keith is the far more likely scenario, but I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if Puljiu falls into our lap.

 

[JA]

I still don't think its completely out of the realm of possibility that Puljiujarvi drops to us. Obviously, PLD or Son of Keith is the far more likely scenario, but I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if Puljiu falls into our lap.

Rejoice if he does. I think he and Virtanen would be incredible together.

Jake can play the left side as the shooter while Jesse finds him. They can also give-and-go with their speed and size.

 

[Bad News Benning]

I still don't think its completely out of the realm of possibility that Puljiujarvi drops to us. Obviously, PLD or Son of Keith is the far more likely scenario, but I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if Puljiu falls into our lap.

I'd say there is zero chance he drops to us. If CBJ doesn't want to take him at 3 another team will trade up for that pick.

Can't see any scenario where Columbus keeps the pick and isn't trying to pronounce Jesse Puljujarvi at the podium.

 

[JA]

I'd say there is zero chance he drops to us. If CBJ doesn't want to take him at 3 another team will trade up for that pick.

Can't see any scenario where Columbus keeps the pick and isn't trying to pronounce Jesse Puljujarvi at the podium.

If we can make the right deal for him, I would.

"Pool-yoo-yar-vee." Emphasize the first syllable, make sure the "y" in "yoo" is heard. Curl the "l" in "pool." Jesse is pronounced "yes-uh," not "jess-ee."

"Yes-uh Pool-yoo-yar-vee." Finnish rules of "j" = English "y"; "u" = English "oo"; "e" = the "e" sound in "yes."



The English-speaking world never got Teemu Selanne's name right.



Worst I've heard is "Solnini." First ten seconds of this video:

 

[Verviticus]

From a drafting philosophy aspect (removed from Brown), has anyone really found this to be true? IMO, in recent history, this has not been the case. From what i can see, effort/intensity is something like a player's physical assertiveness/willingness; it's either there or it'll generally plague a player throughout their career.

Take Jensen. He was a highly inconsistent player, whose effort wavered game by game. Had the ability to dominate games, had the ability to be invisible. This was his greatest flaw in the OHL, in his draft season.

i feel like effort/consistency gets criticized when a lot of times the player probably just doesnt have the wherewithal/iq to make the decision to apply effort/intensity effectively

 

[CanaFan]

i feel like effort/consistency gets criticized when a lot of times the player probably just doesnt have the wherewithal/iq to make the decision to apply effort/intensity effectively

I dunno. Anecdotally I'm not sure I can think of too many cases where that seems to fit. Derek Dorsett applies as much effort as I've ever seen, but he plays like an idiot. Radim Vrbata has hockey smarts coming out his ass, but most nights he just looked disinterested. I have trouble accepting that Vrbata just wasn't "smart enough to decide to work harder" and that Dorsett is some kind of high IQ guy who just lacks skills.

I think effort and intelligence are two largely unrelated aspects of a person's characteristics. Could be wrong of course, I just don't see the connection.

 

[ginner classic]

I don't see the upside in PLD like you guys do.

Firstly, I doubt he's a C in the NHL. Most of the time I saw him, he's not much of a puck distributor. He likes to defer the puck handling to his linemates and hang around the boards/side of net.

Very strong, very hard shot, and basically muscled his way to the net often in the Q.

Decent passer but certainly not someone who will stand out with his playmaking abilities.

Simply looks like power winger, who is good along the boards and go to the net with authority.

I think 30-30 power winger is what I see him as.

Personally, I think both Tkachuk/Keller have higher ceiling.

Brown is really hard to get a read on. Sometimes looks like a smoother Joe Thornton, sometimes basically a carbon copy of Colborne/Pyatt.

Also really high on Jost.

Agree on PLD...he is an edgy Trevor Linden and I don't think we ever really established his best position. I expect a similar impact in the NHL as well. That's still a really good player.

Disagree on Brown. He's never looked like Colborne or Pyatt to me. He has way more skill. He plays in the same spots on the ice as Thornton....there is no doubt that their play style is eerily similar. Thornton is a step beyond him so I'm not sure the comparson is fair....just the style.

Tkachuk would be magic beside players like Tavares and Stamkos.

I think both Brown and Tkachuk could complement Boeser...I'm not sure I'd think the same of Dubois.

 

[TheBleedingEdge]

Agree on PLD...he is an edgy Trevor Linden and I don't think we ever really established his best position. I expect a similar impact in the NHL as well. That's still a really good player.

Disagree on Brown. He's never looked like Colborne or Pyatt to me. He has way more skill. He plays in the same spots on the ice as Thornton....there is no doubt that their play style is eerily similar. Thornton is a step beyond him so I'm not sure the comparson is fair....just the style.

Tkachuk would be magic beside players like Tavares and Stamkos.

I think both Brown and Tkachuk could complement Boeser...I'm not sure I'd think the same of Dubois.

I kind of like the intensity/edge that Dubois has. Some PIMs could be interpreted as discipline issues, or perhaps hes engaged and fighting for his ice.

Itll be one hell of a draft day thats for sure boys.

 

[Archangel]

my gutt tells me that Tkchuck will go three and oilers take dubois

 

[Bleach Clean]

The odds are pretty decent that one of Brown/Nylander/Keller/Jost becomes a better player than Dubois, just because of the numbers. They all have fairly high ceilings and it's a decent bet that at least one of them gets close to achieving their ceiling. The thing is, unless you can narrow it down to a specific player that you're sure will be better than Dubois, it's just going to be hindsight telling you that you made the wrong pick 5 years down the road.

Not if you expect one or more of those players to outproduce Dubois from the outset (I do). Primarily because of their relative ability as PP Players. I think every one of those 4 players will outproduce (overall) Dubois at the next level, but will be less effective at ES. I'm OK with it.

The HW insider "scoop" was just her reporting on media stories that we've all read...

Are you sure? Because it really seems to jive with duplo's insider information.

I don't see the upside in PLD like you guys do.

Firstly, I doubt he's a C in the NHL. Most of the time I saw him, he's not much of a puck distributor. He likes to defer the puck handling to his linemates and hang around the boards/side of net.

Very strong, very hard shot, and basically muscled his way to the net often in the Q.

Decent passer but certainly not someone who will stand out with his playmaking abilities.

Simply looks like power winger, who is good along the boards and go to the net with authority.

I think 30-30 power winger is what I see him as.

Personally, I think both Tkachuk/Keller have higher ceiling.

Brown is really hard to get a read on. Sometimes looks like a smoother Joe Thornton, sometimes basically a carbon copy of Colborne/Pyatt.

Also really high on Jost.

If by 'ceiling' you mean points, then I would agree with you. I do not expect Dubois to lead the pack in that regard. However, we cannot discount what he has done in this draft year in terms of primary points. He's not a plus playmaker. He's not a sniper. His Offensive IQ is not on the level of Keller. Still, he put together what he does have to an outstanding level of production. Relative to his peers, production that ranks behind Crosby and McDavid in terms ES Primary Points. That is quite a feat by prospects ranked at the top of drafts, let alone at #5.

I went back 10 pages...what did HW say ?

.

Check out my post history. I don't want to re-post it until I can verify if it was sourced by her.

 

[clunk]

my gutt tells me that Tkchuck will go three and oilers take dubois

Leaving us Puljujarvi? Highly, Highly doubt it.... Oilers would be ALL over him as a winger for Mcdavid.

 

[F A N]

From a drafting philosophy aspect (removed from Brown), has anyone really found this to be true? IMO, in recent history, this has not been the case. From what i can see, effort/intensity is something like a player's physical assertiveness/willingness; it's either there or it'll generally plague a player throughout their career.

[/QUOTE]

I think it's like anything else. More often than not, the player can't overcome weaknesses that exist at the time of the draft. That's why so many prospects fail to develop to their potential. Something holds them back.

There's a reason why it's hard to project 18 year olds. Inconsistency is usually the norm. Players mature and become more consistent. It's even harder to project really tall players because many of them are lanky to start with and the rest of their game is still trying to catch up. Usually, a gentle giant is going to be a gentle giant, although some big guys just need to figure things out.

The fact is people expect big skilled forwards to dominate physically, but more often than not they don't. For example, Joe Colbourne (who almost played his way out of the NHL) and Antropov never really got over their physical intensity/consistency weakness. Guys like Blake Wheeler and Ryan Johansen aren't physically consistent but they are perfect examples of big guys drafted for tools who, for the most part, reached their potential.

In the end, you got to want it and things can change. Wellwood got into shape for a few seasons and morphed into a good 3rd line C who was solid defensively. Who would have thought that? Who would have thought Gilbert Brule would quit hockey?

i feel like effort/consistency gets criticized when a lot of times the player probably just doesnt have the wherewithal/iq to make the decision to apply effort/intensity effectively

I don't think so. Take small skilled players. A common criticism is that they aren't willing to go to the dirty areas. It has nothing to do with IQ. A lot of players in juniors get away with having one outstanding attribute whether it's their size, their speed, or their skill. They either don't exert themselves in winning battles or they have trouble doing so. For example, Baertschi was criticised by some scouts for his compete level. It wasn't always there. We see that that has translated to his pro game. When his effort level wanes he sucks. But when he is physically engaged he's good. Patrick Kane once had the reputation that you can take him out of the game by hitting him early. Shinkaruk was criticized for his inability to win puck battles. Effort or ability?

I think hockey IQ is probably the least contributing factor to effort/intensity. A guy like Jason Allison could look like he's not expending effort or lacking intensity because he's too slow.

 

[Proto]

isn't the bolded statement true? Analytics are only part of what you need to look at and analyze to create a good team.

I do think that analytics when scouting jr players isn't something that can be overly relied upon as there are so many other variables.

Just because they aren't publicly all in with analytics doesn't mean they don't use them and don't see a value in them.

The point isn't that it isn't true -- it's that it's the same thing he says every time. He never offers any insight into what he thinks is effective. In fact, he often follows it up with some stupid comment about how analytics doesn't measure Luca Sbisa punishing someone along the boards (someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that's a paraphrase of something he's said).

Considering they have never made a single comment that suggests any deep understanding or use of analytics, I think it's relatively safe to say they probably aren't doing very much with them.

 

[banme*]

Actually I can, and I have, but it involves going over their actual production and since you posted above you have no interest in actual production....

I guess I can say that Tkachuk and Dubois are better in scrums than Brown. They are more physical and make the boards go boom louder. Happy?

It's not difficult to explain what these players are good at and what they're not good at without using their actual point totals. There are people here who do it often. Coincidentally these people do not feel the need to reply to every poster with a different opinion telling them theirs is idiotic.

 

[Donuts]

Only way canucks draft jesse if they trade up. Columbus will trade #3 to get extra assets if they rather draft someone else. And edmonton will not pass up on jesse if he somehow falls..perfect winger for mcdavid

 

[polarbearcub]

pulujarvi is not a player that will fall.

 

[Tinhorn1]

Are you sure?

I really think so, but I'm not 100 percent sure.

 

[Fat Tony]

Considering they have never made a single comment that suggests any deep understanding or use of analytics, I think it's relatively safe to say they probably aren't doing very much with them.

This quote sticks out to me for a reason:

There’s a place for analytics. We use analytics.

Maybe it's the way he communicates but that comes across as someone who doesn't really buy in. It's like this friend I have who says, "I love sports. I watch sports all the time." It doesn't ring true.

 

[y2kcanucks]

It's not difficult to explain what these players are good at and what they're not good at without using their actual point totals. There are people here who do it often. Coincidentally these people do not feel the need to reply to every poster with a different opinion telling them theirs is idiotic.

Their point totals confirm what they're good at, offensively at least.