Prospect Info: Matthew Tkachuk or PL Dubois (Round 3)

[Canucker]

Preferring Brown to PLD or Tkachuk is idiotic. PLD and Tkachuk are by far superior prospects to Logan Brown. Zero reason for the Canucks to prefer Brown to either.

While I agree with you that I'd much rather have PLD or Tkachuk over Brown, to play Devil's advocate....PLD and Tkachuk may be better prospects today, I'm sure there are scouts who see Brown as having a higher ceiling than either of PLD or Tkachuk, and may value the higher ceiling more than the better odds of achieving a marginally lower ceiling. Sometimes a GM will reach to get the player he wants, I think the Blake Wheeler pick from 2004 illustrates that well...it was pretty much scoffed at at the time, but history has shown it to be a good pick. That said, I don't trust Benning to make a good "reach" pick, so I'm hoping we can come away with PLD.

 

[WonderTwinsUnite]

While I agree with you that I'd much rather have PLD or Tkachuk over Brown, to play Devil's advocate....PLD and Tkachuk may be better prospects today, I'm sure there are scouts who see Brown as having a higher ceiling than either of PLD or Tkachuk, and may value the higher ceiling more than the better odds of achieving a marginally lower ceiling. Sometimes a GM will reach to get the player he wants, I think the Blake Wheeler pick from 2004 illustrates that well...it was pretty much scoffed at at the time, but history has shown it to be a good pick. That said, I don't trust Benning to make a good "reach" pick, so I'm hoping we can come away with PLD.

I see PLD as the best of both worlds, regardless. He has the upside of a guy that could one day finish top 10 in the league in scoring (yeah, I think he could be that good), and still has the defensive game and size to move up and down the lineup should he not fully pan out.

 

[Canucker]

I see PLD as the best of both worlds, regardless. He has the upside of a guy that could one day finish top 10 in the league in scoring (yeah, I think he could be that good), and still has the defensive game and size to move up and down the lineup should he not fully pan out.

I agree...and I'm sure the majority of people do too, but I'd be willing to bet that there are scouts, and perhaps a GM or two, out there who would take Brown over either PLD or Tkachuk.

 

[ahmon]

I don't see the upside in PLD like you guys do.

Firstly, I doubt he's a C in the NHL. Most of the time I saw him, he's not much of a puck distributor. He likes to defer the puck handling to his linemates and hang around the boards/side of net.

Very strong, very hard shot, and basically muscled his way to the net often in the Q.

Decent passer but certainly not someone who will stand out with his playmaking abilities.

Simply looks like power winger, who is good along the boards and go to the net with authority.

I think 30-30 power winger is what I see him as.

Personally, I think both Tkachuk/Keller have higher ceiling.

Brown is really hard to get a read on. Sometimes looks like a smoother Joe Thornton, sometimes basically a carbon copy of Colborne/Pyatt.

Also really high on Jost.

 

[Fat Tony]

That said, I don't trust Benning to make a good "reach" pick, so I'm hoping we can come away with PLD.

That's the crux of the argument for me.

Chip it off the glass, Benning. Off the glass!

 

[y2kcanucks]

While I agree with you that I'd much rather have PLD or Tkachuk over Brown, to play Devil's advocate....PLD and Tkachuk may be better prospects today, I'm sure there are scouts who see Brown as having a higher ceiling than either of PLD or Tkachuk, and may value the higher ceiling more than the better odds of achieving a marginally lower ceiling. Sometimes a GM will reach to get the player he wants, I think the Blake Wheeler pick from 2004 illustrates that well...it was pretty much scoffed at at the time, but history has shown it to be a good pick. That said, I don't trust Benning to make a good "reach" pick, so I'm hoping we can come away with PLD.

I'm sure there are some scouts that might see Brown as having a higher ceiling. And those scouts should be unemployed.

 

[Canucker]

I'm sure there are some scouts that might see Brown as having a higher ceiling. And those scouts should be unemployed.

Should the scouts who pushed to pick Wheeler 5th overall instead of the late 1st/2nd round have been fired? Sometimes gambles pay off.

 

[Canucker]

I don't see the upside in PLD like you guys do.

Firstly, I doubt he's a C in the NHL. Most of the time I saw him, he's not much of a puck distributor. He likes to defer the puck handling to his linemates and hang around the boards/side of net.

Very strong, very hard shot, and basically muscled his way to the net often in the Q.

Decent passer but certainly not someone who will stand out with his playmaking abilities.

Simply looks like power winger, who is good along the boards and go to the net with authority.

I think 30-30 power winger is what I see him as.

Personally, I think both Tkachuk/Keller have higher ceiling.

Brown is really hard to get a read on. Sometimes looks like a smoother Joe Thornton, sometimes basically a carbon copy of Colborne/Pyatt.

Also really high on Jost.

I'm pretty high on Jost myself...he's the only player I'd be ok with moving down for.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Should the scouts who pushed to pick Wheeler 5th overall instead of the late 1st/2nd round have been fired? Sometimes gambles pay off.

Nobody put up the kind of numbers that Tkachuk or Dubois did.

EDIT: Even then, it took Wheeler 7 years post-draft to have a first line level season. I think PLD/Tkachuk will be top 6 forwards before the end of their ELC, and will be first liners by their 5th year.

 

[ahmon]

I'm pretty high on Jost myself...he's the only player I'd be ok with moving down for.

Best comparison I've seen of him is Logan Couture.

I think Jost has even a better 2 way game, and oozes determination and leadership.

 

[racerjoe]

Best comparison I've seen of him is Logan Couture.

I think Jost has even a better 2 way game, and oozes determination and leadership.

I really like the little I saw of jost too. I also like you liked Keller, but saw even less of him, do find him tantalizing.

Having said that, I A)don't reach with this pick, and B)ONLY listen to trades on the pick. It would have to be a really good deal for me to make it.

 

[banme*]

I'm sure there are some scouts that might see Brown as having a higher ceiling. And those scouts should be unemployed.

Very dismissive.

Elaborate on why you believe this without using point totals.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Very dismissive.

Elaborate on why you believe this without using point totals.

Right, because point totals are meaningless.

 

[topheavyhookjaw]

I'm sure there are some scouts that might see Brown as having a higher ceiling. And those scouts should be unemployed.

Right, a single dissenting opinion means you shouldn't work in that field. The hyperbole is tiresome.

 

[banme*]

Right, because point totals are meaningless.

Bro are you trying to strong man argument me.

 

[banme*]

Seriously though why don't you provide a break down of each player's strengths and weaknesses as well as what you project for them at the next level and why, based off of the several dozen games you've watched. I would be honoured by such incredible insight. You make numerous strongly opinionated posts about these players every day, so I would have to assume that you are likely the most knowledgeable on them here.

 

[GreetingsFromCanada]

Seriously though why don't you provide a break down of each player's strengths and weaknesses as well as what you project for them at the next level and why, based off of the several dozen games you've watched. I would be honoured by such incredible insight. You make numerous strongly opinionated posts about these players every day, so I would have to assume that you are likely the most knowledgeable on them here.

That's what CSS, TSN, etc are for

 

[banme*]

That's what CSS, TSN, etc are for

>professional scouts are dumb
>ok why?
>leave that to the professional scouts

 

[y2kcanucks]

>professional scouts are dumb
>ok why?
>leave that to the professional scouts

Where did I say all professional scouts are dumb?

In fact, I'm relying a lot on production results and professional scouts to formulate my opinion. So yes, me saying one scout (probably ours and we all know how our scouting track record has been) who prefers Brown over Tkachuk is an idiot is probably accurate and warranted.

 

[banme*]

So I'm assuming you can't provide any sort of analysis. That's fine, just quit replying to every poster who is positive about Brown with absolutes.

 

[y2kcanucks]

So I'm assuming you can't provide any sort of analysis. That's fine, just quit replying to every poster who is positive about Brown with absolutes.

Actually I can, and I have, but it involves going over their actual production and since you posted above you have no interest in actual production....

I guess I can say that Tkachuk and Dubois are better in scrums than Brown. They are more physical and make the boards go boom louder. Happy?

 

[TruGr1t]

I don't see the upside in PLD like you guys do.

Firstly, I doubt he's a C in the NHL. Most of the time I saw him, he's not much of a puck distributor. He likes to defer the puck handling to his linemates and hang around the boards/side of net.

Very strong, very hard shot, and basically muscled his way to the net often in the Q.

Decent passer but certainly not someone who will stand out with his playmaking abilities.

Simply looks like power winger, who is good along the boards and go to the net with authority.

I think 30-30 power winger is what I see him as.

Personally, I think both Tkachuk/Keller have higher ceiling.

Brown is really hard to get a read on. Sometimes looks like a smoother Joe Thornton, sometimes basically a carbon copy of Colborne/Pyatt.

Also really high on Jost.

Thanks for this...too often this thread is posters rehashing scouting reports and stats. Nice to hear from someone who has seen these prospects.

 

[clunk]

Actually I can, and I have, but it involves going over their actual production and since you posted above you have no interest in actual production....

I guess I can say that Tkachuk and Dubois are better in scrums than Brown. They are more physical and make the boards go boom louder. Happy?

We also have to look at the key 'Rip the Puck/60' stat, which Tkachuk and Dubois are clearly superior in.

It's an easy decision.

 

[y2kcanucks]

We also have to look at the key 'Rip the Puck/60' stat, which Tkachuk and Dubois are clearly superior in.

It's an easy decision.

Except I thought we weren't supposed to look at stats and come up with a different analysis?

 

[oceanchild]

CAn't a mod remove all the whining about the Virtanen pick to another thread.

Tiresome. And he is a different package then the smaller skill guys. Live with it.

I believe you are missing reports by HW and duplo, and Button's rumour/insight, in your assertion. It's not just one report.

But back to Dubois and Tkachuk:

EDM taking Tkachuk makes the decision a lot easier. However, then the hope is that Brown/Nylander/Keller/Jost do not end up becoming better players than Dubois. Should be fun to track these three prospects going to the division.

Also, as an aside, even if VAN drafts Dubois, I hope the focus is still in acquiring another top6 centre down the line. Then, the team can shift Dubois to wing, or overload the 1-3 centre spots, creating a comparative advantage. Meaning, I hope they don't stop trying to get top end centres just because Dubois and Horvat are in the mix here. 1 more top end C would do nicely. Johansen anyone? (I joke)

I went back 10 pages...what did HW say ?

.