Value of: Matt Murray (with retention or for cap dump)

[edguy]

At this point why would Ottawa buy him out or trade him? He has shown to be Ottawa's best goalie, his cap hit is kind of irrelevant right now as we won't be near the cap for the next 2 years likely. I don't think his contract will be a roadblock for signing any of our young players.

 

[elitepete]

Karlsson being overpaid by 5 million is highly debateable. Before his injury, he was paying at a 65 point pace where someone playing at a 52 point pace in Morgan Rielly just got 7.5 mil by 8 year contract. Karlsson is overpaid but he's overpaid by 3 mil at the absolute most.

I don't know about 3m. I'd say it's at least 4m.

But the older he gets, the more he will be overpaid by. Like in 3-4 years, he'll likely be overpaid by way more than 5m.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't know about 3m. I'd say it's at least 4m.

But the older he gets, the more he will be overpaid by. Like in 3-4 years, he'll likely be overpaid by way more than 5m.

The market suggests otherwise. There’s no comparable player making 7.5 mil and I don’t think it’s all that likely at all that it gets worse considering the age, position, and talent. Injuries are more likely to do him in rather than decline.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Karlsson being overpaid by 5 million is highly debateable. Before his injury, he was paying at a 65 point pace where someone playing at a 52 point pace in Morgan Rielly just got 7.5 mil by 8 year contract. Karlsson is overpaid but he's overpaid by 3 mil at the absolute most.

Karlsson is overpaid by 3m at the most (maybe considerably less, actually) if he's healthy.

How many truly healthy games has he played in the last 3 seasons, though?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Karlsson is overpaid by 3m at the most (maybe considerably less, actually) if he's healthy.

How many truly healthy games has he played in the last 3 seasons, though?

He was healthy coming into this season for the first time as a Shark so I'd be confident saying the bulk of the 33 games he played this season before his injury was healthy. Health is certainly a concern but the way the team has been built since signing that contract has been questionable to say the least. You can certainly attribute some of that to signing Karlsson to the current contract but I don't think the team was in a position to really transition to Karlsson as the guy moving forward and did very little to invest into that from a hockey ops perspective to get the most out of it. But even with that, the market is pretty obvious in terms of what a guy is worth. You can take it or leave it for each individual but the reality is that if Karlsson hits the open market now, he's getting at least 8.5 million. Three million is still a lot to be overpaid for sure but if the guy is still a contributing player to a reasonable enough degree, it's something you can work with. What one can't work with is when someone like Vlasic gets paid 7 mil but doesn't actually contribute anything of worth. Burns and Karlsson are imperfect players clearly. Both are overpaid at this point but both still contribute heavily in some form or another. It may just be point production but that's still something you can work with.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

He was healthy coming into this season for the first time as a Shark so I'd be confident saying the bulk of the 33 games he played this season before his injury was healthy. Health is certainly a concern but the way the team has been built since signing that contract has been questionable to say the least. You can certainly attribute some of that to signing Karlsson to the current contract but I don't think the team was in a position to really transition to Karlsson as the guy moving forward and did very little to invest into that from a hockey ops perspective to get the most out of it. But even with that, the market is pretty obvious in terms of what a guy is worth. You can take it or leave it for each individual but the reality is that if Karlsson hits the open market now, he's getting at least 8.5 million. Three million is still a lot to be overpaid for sure but if the guy is still a contributing player to a reasonable enough degree, it's something you can work with. What one can't work with is when someone like Vlasic gets paid 7 mil but doesn't actually contribute anything of worth. Burns and Karlsson are imperfect players clearly. Both are overpaid at this point but both still contribute heavily in some form or another. It may just be point production but that's still something you can work with.

I love Karlsson, but I don't think he's getting 8.5m longterm when he's played maybe 50 healthy games out of the last 150+ games scheduled

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I love Karlsson, but I don't think he's getting 8.5m longterm when he's played maybe 50 healthy games out of the last 150+ games scheduled

And I simply don't agree that that would be true. Every team jumps at a chance at this sort of talent even when there are concerns.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

And I simply don't agree that that would be true. Every team jumps at a chance at this sort of talent even when there are concerns.

I dunno. I compare it to Dougie Hamtilon who is 3 yrs younger, has a 2yrs longer deal, has been just about as good as Karlsson has at any point since coming to SJ, and has missed like 20 games since Jr. I think teams would pay more than 8.5m short-term. Longterm just carries a ton of risk.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I dunno. I compare it to Dougie Hamtilon who is 3 yrs younger, has a 2yrs longer deal, has been just about as good as Karlsson has at any point since coming to SJ, and has missed like 20 games since Jr. I think teams would pay more than 8.5m short-term. Longterm just carries a ton of risk.

Of course it does but to win the services of a player this caliber, you have to take on a certain amount of risk and teams have consistently shown a willingness to do that.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

At this point why would Ottawa buy him out or trade him? He has shown to be Ottawa's best goalie, his cap hit is kind of irrelevant right now as we won't be near the cap for the next 2 years likely. I don't think his contract will be a roadblock for signing any of our young players.

Strictly because of his cost in terms of actual salary and the worry that if he hits another rough patch that his value will be in the tank again? That said, if the price was right I would look to acquire him and hope that he continues his resurgence.

 

[elitepete]

The market suggests otherwise. There’s no comparable player making 7.5 mil and I don’t think it’s all that likely at all that it gets worse considering the age, position, and talent. Injuries are more likely to do him in rather than decline.

Injuries are a huge part of why players decline... And Karlsson is pretty injury prone.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Injuries are a huge part of why players decline... And Karlsson is pretty injury prone.

That tends to occur either when it's repeatedly to a particular area or a debilitating one. Karlsson's injury history hasn't really reflected that either will apply to him.

 

[elitepete]

That tends to occur either when it's repeatedly to a particular area or a debilitating one. Karlsson's injury history hasn't really reflected that either will apply to him.

You're out to lunch if you think Karlsson won't significantly decline from where he is 4-5 years from now.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You're out to lunch if you think Karlsson won't significantly decline from where he is 4-5 years from now.

If it happens four to five years from now, I don't give a shit. His contract will be expiring then.