Value of: Matt Duchene to the habs

[Pual Statsny]

The comparison with ROR is closer than Johansen in my opinion. It's not so much a question of production, both players CAN and most probably WILL produce. But the fact that Johansen is taller and bigger surely is an advantage for GM on paper, and the fact that Johansen can be secured for, at the time of the trade, 9 years and a half over 3 year only for Duchene is a HUGE factor in my evaluation.

Now comparing him to ROR makes a lot more sense to me. And just to be clear, I'm not arguing that the initial proposal was nearly enough for Duchene. But if you take a look at what the Avs got in the O'Reilly deal...

• M.Grigorenko: A former 1st round pick, coming with kind of a question mark, considering he had failed to meet the expectations Buffalo had for him at the time of the trade. My guess is Grigorenko had more value for your head coach than he had for ANY other team at this point in his career.

• N.Zadorov: Considered a blue chip prospect by many, but again, somewhat of a question mark, considering he still hasn't establish himself as a regular in the NHL.

• J.T. Compher: An interesting project playing in the Big-10 who, at the time, had recorded 23 goals and 55 points in 69 games over two seasons.

• A very early 2nd rounder.

Now the closest comparables for that in the Habs organization, in my opinion, would probably be...

• N.Scherbak: A 1st rounder in 2014 who, so far, failed to make the impact expected by the organization due to injury.

• N.Juulsen: A 1st rounder in 2015 with size, who kind had a setback last year offensively, but apparently improved defensively.

• Jake Evans: Probably the closest to Compher the Habs have right now, but to be honest, I don't even think it's a good comparable.

• 2nd round pick: Could be anywhere at this point.

Now I would give this package less value at this point than what the Avs got in the ROR deal...but I also don't see a player like McGinn (and no Mitchell ain't McGinn) in the OP deal. McGinn was coming off an injury, but flirted with the 20-goal mark the year before. Getting a 26-years old 'luxury' third liner who can score 20 goals adds value to the deal, even on a 1-year contract.

Now I'm not saying the package above would be interesting enough for the Avs to actually trade Duchene, I'm not familiar enough with the organization to really judge that. But I'll say this...that package would probably be more than what the Habs would be willing to pay for 3-years of Duchene, considering we already have way too many centers, and a hole on the left wing in our top-6.

The only way the Habs consider bringing Duchene in is if Plekanec is included in the deal...and I don't see why the Avs would be doing that. So my final verdict: Avs and Habs aren't good trading partner here, at least, not for Duchene.

The closest comparable to Zadorov is not Scherbak, it's Sergachev. Ever prospect has a question mark, that's why they're prospects.

The difference between Michell and McGinn is more than made up by Duchene's contract and lack of demands.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

You think I'm offering one of those for Duchene 1-for-1? In a package deal, you're damn right they have value for Duchene.

Absolutely incorrect. They might as well be conditional 7ths

 

[ohmyjlord]

The closest comparable to Zadorov is not Scherbak, it's Sergachev. Ever prospect has a question mark, that's why they're prospects.

The difference between Michell and McGinn is more than made up by Duchene's contract and lack of demands.

I compared Zadorov to Juulsen, not Scherbak.

And Zadorov doesn't compare to Sergachev. He wasn't then, and isn't now. Zadorov is seen as a potential shutdown defenseman, whose ceilling is probably top-4. Sergachev is seen as a potential QB, with two-way appeal.

If the Habs were to offer Sergachev for Zadorov, the Avs would take it, and run away, lets be real.

 

[strictlyrandy]

I compared Zadorov to Juulsen, not Scherbak.

And Zadorov doesn't compare to Sergachev. He wasn't then, and isn't now. Zadorov is seen as a potential shutdown defenseman, whose ceilling is probably top-4. Sergachev is seen as a potential QB, with two-way appeal.

If the Habs were to offer Sergachev for Zadorov, the Avs would take it, and run away, lets be real.

Lol no they wouldn't. Zadorov has a higher ceiling than top 4. His ceiling is top pairing. And you already do him a disservice saying his potential is as a shut down guy only. He's a 2 way blue chip prospect. Was then. Is now. Sergachev is a nice piece but he wouldn't be the only piece coming back. Maybe the main piece but there'd be a lot more value attached. Especially for Duchene.

 

[ohmyjlord]

Lol no they wouldn't. Zadorov has a higher ceiling than top 4. His ceiling is top pairing. And you already do him a disservice saying his potential is as a shut down guy only. He's a 2 way blue chip prospect. Was then. Is now. Sergachev is a nice piece but he wouldn't be the only piece coming back. Maybe the main piece but there'd be a lot more value attached. Especially for Duchene.

Well, lets agree to disagree on Zadorov...granted, I've seen more of him in Buffalo than I did in Colorado, but I don't see a top-2 potential in him. Maybe I underestimate him, maybe he has improved greatly since his Buffalo days, I'll let you be the judge of that.

...but the fact remains there's absolutely no-way the Habs trade Scherbak + Sergachev + who ever you want to put in Evans place + a 2nd rounder for Duchene. Which brings me back to the point I was trying to make: Habs and Avs aren't good trading partner when it comes to Duchene.

 

[cgf]

I don't understand your question, which makes me think that you don't understand my comment.

I mean, there would need to more incentive than just Beaulieu to make it work for Colorado because Duchesne is a much younger player than Plekanec. That doesn't mean it cannot be done, it just needs work... it's "workable".

How?

 

[cgf]

You think I'm offering one of those for Duchene 1-for-1? In a package deal, you're damn right they have value for Duchene.

Not as the centerpiece, nor does Pleks. With Subban gone the only Habs that could make sense as the centerpieces in a package for Duchene are Serg or Galy...if you're talking about adding one of those prospects alongside one of those centerpieces, then sure; they do hold value in a trade for duchene...but not without one of those two centerpieces.

Well, lets agree to disagree on Zadorov...granted, I've seen more of him in Buffalo than I did in Colorado, but I don't see a top-2 potential in him. Maybe I underestimate him, maybe he has improved greatly since his Buffalo days, I'll let you be the judge of that.

...but the fact remains there's absolutely no-way the Habs trade Scherbak + Sergachev + who ever you want to put in Evans place + a 2nd rounder for Duchene. Which brings me back to the point I was trying to make: Habs and Avs aren't good trading partner when it comes to Duchene.

Even in his Buffalo time he showed off his incredible potential early in the year. Then the tanking culture got to him when he hit some growing pains and his season went to ****; but he looked spectacular to start that season...which he should never have even been in the NHL for...

PS - Zadorov has never been seen as a shutdown dman. He may be ginormous big & skate like the wind, but it's the things he does with the puck that have always most stood out in his game. That's what makes him special and make people hope he continues growing into Colorado's Burns/Buff.

 

[tucker3434]

I compared Zadorov to Juulsen, not Scherbak.

And Zadorov doesn't compare to Sergachev. He wasn't then, and isn't now. Zadorov is seen as a potential shutdown defenseman, whose ceilling is probably top-4. Sergachev is seen as a potential QB, with two-way appeal.

If the Habs were to offer Sergachev for Zadorov, the Avs would take it, and run away, lets be real.

You're off on Zadorov. He has all the tools you want in a top pairing two-way defenseman. It's just a matter of putting them together.

And I like Sergachev. I wanted the Avs to pick him. But there were no defenders in this draft that were on a different level from Zadorov. There were no Ekblad's, OEL's, Hedman's, or Doughty's. They're all in the 2nd tier together.

 

[ohmyjlord]

Alright, I might be off regarding Zadorov.

I saw that potential in Ristolainen, I saw it this year in Parayko. I hope for the Avs sake that Zadorov can show the same progression...I just haven't seen it yet.

 

[Peanut]

I love Duchene and do think he is going to be moved this year. But the Habs aren't optimal trading partners for the Avalanche.

I see him going somewhere in the east like philly

 

[Adam Michaels]

Not as the centerpiece, nor does Pleks. With Subban gone the only Habs that could make sense as the centerpieces in a package for Duchene are Serg or Galy...if you're talking about adding one of those prospects alongside one of those centerpieces, then sure; they do hold value in a trade for duchene...but not without one of those two centerpieces.

I agree they would not be the centrepiece. More like sweeteners to ensure the deal goes through. My reply earlier was to someone who laughed when I was willing to part with some prospects who aren't Sergachev. I wasn't stating that they would be the keys to the trade.

As I stated earlier in the thread, the pieces Avs would ask in order to trade Duchene to Habs are not pieces the Habs would give up.

I do think that one guy they'd ask for (not as the centrepiece) is Andrighetto. He is a potential top-6 winger who can play on both sides. And the main reason I'm thinking this way is because he played in the QMJHL where Roy coached against him and has seen him often in juniors. He'd probably ask for him.

 

[cgf]

Alright, I might be off regarding Zadorov.

I saw that potential in Ristolainen, I saw it this year in Parayko. I hope for the Avs sake that Zadorov can show the same progression...I just haven't seen it yet.

Risto is from that higher class of young defender like your Ekblad's and OEL's.

Parayko on the otherhand is pretty comparable to Zads; with the biggest difference being being where in their development they are. As Parayko was allowed to develop quietly for many years before hitting the NHL, while Zads was rushed onto the ice in Buffalo long before he was ready and so needed his development to be reset a bit upon arriving in colorado.

That said; he looked good in a top 4 role alongside Beauchemin when given a run in that role last year, and he still has so much further to go before we see his full potential that I don't even feel comfortable caping him as "just" a top 2 guy. With his creativity & skill on the puck; his skating, reach, power, and love of hitting; the sky is truly the limited if he keeps learning and progressing as he has been.

If he & Meloche both develop smoothly from here on out; they could form an exceptional top pairing in the 2020s together. As Meloche looks like a pretty perfect foil for Zads' game at this point.

 

[AMDZen]

I don't understand your question, which makes me think that you don't understand my comment.

I mean, there would need to more incentive than just Beaulieu to make it work for Colorado because Duchesne is a much younger player than Plekanec. That doesn't mean it cannot be done, it just needs work... it's "workable".

Actually he just turned 51. Pretty sure 51 is older than 33-34 but I could be wrong.

 

[ohmyjlord]

Risto is from that higher class of young defender like your Ekblad's and OEL's.

Parayko on the otherhand is pretty comparable to Zads; with the biggest difference being being where in their development they are. As Parayko was allowed to develop quietly for many years before hitting the NHL, while Zads was rushed onto the ice in Buffalo long before he was ready and so needed his development to be reset a bit upon arriving in colorado.

That said; he looked good in a top 4 role alongside Beauchemin when given a run in that role last year, and he still has so much further to go before we see his full potential that I don't even feel comfortable caping him as "just" a top 2 guy. With his creativity & skill on the puck; his skating, reach, power, and love of hitting; the sky is truly the limited if he keeps learning and progressing as he has been.

If he & Meloche both develop smoothly from here on out; they could form an exceptional top pairing in the 2020s together. As Meloche looks like a pretty perfect foil for Zads' game at this point.

Alright, I stand corrected. If you're telling me Zadorov is a slighty less developped Parayko, then the Avs have quite a good young d-man (I'm VERY high on Parayko right now) and Juulsen doesn't touch him at all.

I know Zadorov put up points in junior and even last year in the AHL...I just always pictured Zadorov as someone who would probably develop more as a classic hard-hitting, big body, shutdown-d than an all-around, top-pairing d-man at the NHL level.

 

[chet1926]

If neither Galchenyuk or Sergachev are in the deal then there would be absolutely no interest coming from the Avs. No need to move our best player for a quantity package like we traded for ROR. If Duchene moves it's probably in a 1 for 1 deal involving a dman.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

Because this is HF where Avs players aren't good until they go to another team. I call it "ROR Syndrome".

Nice troll attempt there. Avs and Avs fans loved ROR and knew he was a great player. ROR and management couldn't ever get on the same page and it was very obvious to everyone inside and outside of the organization.

 

[playasRus]

Now the closest comparables for that in the Habs organization, in my opinion, would probably be...

• N.Scherbak: A 1st rounder in 2014 who, so far, failed to make the impact expected by the organization due to injury.

• N.Juulsen: A 1st rounder in 2015 with size, who kind had a setback last year offensively, but apparently improved defensively.

• Jake Evans: Probably the closest to Compher the Habs have right now, but to be honest, I don't even think it's a good comparable.

• 2nd round pick: Could be anywhere at this point.

Now I would give this package less value at this point than what the Avs got in the ROR deal...but I also don't see a player like McGinn (and no Mitchell ain't McGinn) in the OP deal. McGinn was coming off an injury, but flirted with the 20-goal mark the year before. Getting a 26-years old 'luxury' third liner who can score 20 goals adds value to the deal, even on a 1-year contract.

Duchene wouldn't get Seth Jones or Johansen straight up but he'd be close in value. Regardless, I think this offer is probably pretty close in value, maybe the 2nd rounder is pushed to a 1st and COL adds a 4th round pick to tilt the scale a bit, but it's nto far off. Zadorov had a little bit more value than Juulsen/Scherbak but the 1st rounder over (probably in the 10-20 OA range) a 2nder would even it up.

 

[strictlyrandy]

Nice troll attempt there. Avs and Avs fans loved ROR and knew he was a great player. ROR and management couldn't ever get on the same page and it was very obvious to everyone inside and outside of the organization.

You're preaching to the choir. That's my point. Avalanche fans knew what ROR was, other fans constantly underrated him.

And fyi it wasn't a troll attempt, it was a jab at the HF hivemind that continually underrates Avs players.

 

[Avs44]

Duchene wouldn't get Seth Jones or Johansen straight up but he'd be close in value. Regardless, I think this offer is probably pretty close in value, maybe the 2nd rounder is pushed to a 1st and COL adds a 4th round pick to tilt the scale a bit, but it's nto far off. Zadorov had a little bit more value than Juulsen/Scherbak but the 1st rounder over (probably in the 10-20 OA range) a 2nder would even it up.

And it fills zero pressing needs for the Avs, so it is a very, very easy no. The Avs need a top defensman, a collection of prospects for one of the best players on the team who is locked up is not a starting point.

 

[AMDZen]

Nice troll attempt there. Avs and Avs fans loved ROR and knew he was a great player. ROR and management couldn't ever get on the same page and it was very obvious to everyone inside and outside of the organization.

Who's trolling? His point was that Avs and Avs fans always knew how good RoR was, but every one else didn't. So you are just repeating the point he already made.

Several Avs fans practically nailed the Sabres trade for RoR. Saying we would want Zadorov, Grigorenko, a prospect and a first I believe. Sabres fans laughed it off and argued that they would never trade Zadorov and RoR wasn't worth the package. Literally right after the trade, before he had played a single game as a Sabre, fans couldn't trip over themselves fast enough to argue how they had stolen RoR and Avs were robbed.

For the entire period of time we knew he had to be traded we had to see insufferable trade proposals like Bozak + Gardiner, while other Leafs fans said that would be overpayment.

Now that RoR is in the east, many more people around the league know what Avs fans knew all along, RoR is a great player. Once again, RoR syndrome. Clearly you misunderstood or you are the actual troll.

 

[canuckking1]

Max Pac-Duchene-Radulov would do dirty things in the east

 

[CanadienShark]

Carey Price is the only acceptable return from the Habs.

Why even bother mentioning Price? You know it'll lead nowhere good. Just say "no deal to be had."

 

[strictlyrandy]

Why even bother mentioning Price? You know it'll lead nowhere good. Just say "no deal to be had."

Was a silly post anyway as the Avs don't need goaltending haha. Forget value, it doesn't even fill a need or a want.

 

[AMDZen]

Why even bother mentioning Price? You know it'll lead nowhere good. Just say "no deal to be had."

"No deal to be had" is far more accurate than Price anyway, because the Avs wouldn't be interested in Price without another deal or a third team in the trade.

However there are probably a few Avs fans who would probably take Radulov straight up for Duchene. Some were so hard up for him it was bordering insanity.

Or, if you are like so many Canadian fans (not just of the Canadiens) and don't actually know who Duchene is, we could call up Duchesne and get you an autograph or something. He was a Nordique once.

 

[EscapedGoat]

Nice troll attempt there. Avs and Avs fans loved ROR and knew he was a great player. ROR and management couldn't ever get on the same page and it was very obvious to everyone inside and outside of the organization.

Wow, you couldn't have missed the point more.

The OP was saying ROR syndrome is when the rest of the league tells Avs fans how overrated their players are until they are traded and then they're seen as amazing.

Avs fans said the deal with Buffalo starts with zadarov and Grigorenko. The rest of the fanbases on here laughed that Avs fans were asking so much for an overrated glorified third liner. Avs fans responded saying ROR will likely garner a larger return and once he plays for the new team the rest of of the league will say Buffalo robbed the Avs.

Guess what has happened? ROR was traded for more than zadarov and grigorenko. RoR is now a bonafide first line centre and zadarov is overrated and close to busting. Hmmm. What's changed in the last year?

I'm not saying it's a conspiracy against the Avs. It's just most of the ignorant, verrrry vocal eastern fans don't ever watch the Avs play. So when a leaf fan would propose bozak and a 2nd for ROR, Avs fans would say that's not close for a Selke caliber first line centre. Then came the mob of ignorant, vocal people who never watched ROR. Instead of taking Avs fans opinions, they called him an overrated third liner. "Ryan O'gretzky". How freaking clever. Haven't heard that since he's been traded to the east and everyone over there saw how good he really is.

I know it may shock people on here, but maybe the people who watch the player 82 times a year know a little more about the player than the guy who has watched him twice and checked hockeydb.