The comparison with ROR is closer than Johansen in my opinion. It's not so much a question of production, both players CAN and most probably WILL produce. But the fact that Johansen is taller and bigger surely is an advantage for GM on paper, and the fact that Johansen can be secured for, at the time of the trade, 9 years and a half over 3 year only for Duchene is a HUGE factor in my evaluation.
Now comparing him to ROR makes a lot more sense to me. And just to be clear, I'm not arguing that the initial proposal was nearly enough for Duchene. But if you take a look at what the Avs got in the O'Reilly deal...
- M.Grigorenko: A former 1st round pick, coming with kind of a question mark, considering he had failed to meet the expectations Buffalo had for him at the time of the trade. My guess is Grigorenko had more value for your head coach than he had for ANY other team at this point in his career.
- N.Zadorov: Considered a blue chip prospect by many, but again, somewhat of a question mark, considering he still hasn't establish himself as a regular in the NHL.
- J.T. Compher: An interesting project playing in the Big-10 who, at the time, had recorded 23 goals and 55 points in 69 games over two seasons.
- A very early 2nd rounder.
Now the closest comparables for that in the Habs organization, in my opinion, would probably be...
- N.Scherbak: A 1st rounder in 2014 who, so far, failed to make the impact expected by the organization due to injury.
- N.Juulsen: A 1st rounder in 2015 with size, who kind had a setback last year offensively, but apparently improved defensively.
- Jake Evans: Probably the closest to Compher the Habs have right now, but to be honest, I don't even think it's a good comparable.
- 2nd round pick: Could be anywhere at this point.
Now I would give this package less value at this point than what the Avs got in the ROR deal...but I also don't see a player like McGinn (and no Mitchell ain't McGinn) in the OP deal. McGinn was coming off an injury, but flirted with the 20-goal mark the year before. Getting a 26-years old 'luxury' third liner who can score 20 goals adds value to the deal, even on a 1-year contract.
Now I'm not saying the package above would be interesting enough for the Avs to actually trade Duchene, I'm not familiar enough with the organization to really judge that. But I'll say this...that package would probably be more than what the Habs would be willing to pay for 3-years of Duchene, considering we already have way too many centers, and a hole on the left wing in our top-6.
The only way the Habs consider bringing Duchene in is if Plekanec is included in the deal...and I don't see why the Avs would be doing that. So my final verdict: Avs and Habs aren't good trading partner here, at least, not for Duchene.
