Player Discussion Marner

[rumman]

It`s this.

Unless Tre wants to `tinker around the edges` for the next 8 years.

You have to risk getting worse to build something better.




Hopefully Stolarz and Woll are due big raises.

Tre picked Nylander over Marner.

Tre also overpaid Nylander, one thing consistent with the Leafs is overpaying players………..

 

[Antropovsky]

WOW.

18.

and scores a nothing burger goal extending a 3 goal lead.

18 games is a short drought for Marner, he once went 100 games without a pp goal while playing the Leafs #1 unit...yep pretty much 2 entire years between PP goals, as an 11 million dollar winger.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1483966474834305028

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Tre also overpaid Nylander, one thing consistent with the Leafs is overpaying players………..

It's an overpay. How Much ? Not sure.

At the end of the day, WN88 can carry his weight in the playoffs more than any of the "Group of 5". He is an elite skater (fastest of the 5) and a great shooter. I am glad the Leafs extended him. I have been pro-Willy for 3 years before that I was not sold.

he once went 100 games without a pp goal

lol.

I could keep Marner (maybe) as I am moving on from JT. But I probably will keep the Marner cap space for McDavid.

EDM tanks this year and McJesus comes home. (94% kidding)

 

[rumman]

It's an overpay. How Much ? Not sure.

At the end of the day, WN88 can carry his weight in the playoffs more than any of the "Group of 5". He is an elite skater (fastest of the 5) and a great shooter. I am glad the Leafs extended him. I have been pro-Willy for 3 years before that I was not sold.

Not doubt, but it sure would be nice for one of these guys to leave a little something on the table if only as a gesture. Of course more blame goes to Tre for agreeing to that deal mid season………

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Not doubt, but it sure would be nice for one of these guys to leave a little something on the table if only as a gesture.

Sign of the times. Even Marchand can't keep his own team's AAVs in check.

Of course more blame goes to Tre for agreeing to that deal mid season………

I doubt Willy would have been much cheaper at the end of the year really.

I'm not sure how I'd feel as a player making money for Rogers.

The 1978 Saturday night hockey I loved is gone now.

 

[ACC1224]

Looks like Berube is continuing to lean on Marner in all situations.
He's been really good to start the season.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Looks like Berube is continuing to lean on Marner in all situations.
He's been really good to start the season.

He plays on the first line to setup our Goals guy and he PKs.
It's not leaning on him. You make it sound like he's also playing D and backup goaltending.

That's his role as a setup man that can't shoot.

He's a part of an very ineffective Power play.

JT and MM16 to Power play 2.

 

[leafs in five]

WOW.

18.

and scores a nothing burger goal extending a 3 goal lead.

you have to assume he registered a pretty high xG on it though

 

[thewave]

He plays on the first line to setup our Goals guy and he PKs.
It's not leaning on him. You make it sound like he's also playing D and backup goaltending.

That's his role as a setup man that can't shoot.

He's a part of an very ineffective Power play.

JT and MM16 to Power play 2.

Right.

WN and AM are snipers.

MM is paid to be so amazing at what he does making plays that either can snipe a goal on the PP. It's not happening. The PP sucks.

Nobody wants to have this conversation in the media or here from the MM zombie nation crowd. They punted the other setup guy, Rielly and put OEL there and things looked better not great. Maybe they need to pull MM off the PP1.

100 game without a goal on the PP is actually insane.

 

[notbias]

This one’s for you, @thusk and @francis246:

Marner’s first playoff goal after an 18-game drought. yes, 18 straight playoff games without a goal. That’s quite the stretch for an $11 million forward, isn’t it?

Now watch this goal, Marners linemates do everything but put the puck in the empty net for him:

1) Leafs are up 3-0, so Tampa’s probably loosened up their defense to push for a goal.
2) Tampa 3rd or 4th line on ice.
3) Matthews, Kerfoot, and Reilly enter the Tampa zone with speed, while four Tampa players collapse around the goalie.
4) Kerfoot heads straight to Vasi’s crease.
5) Reilly drives to the net and dishes it to Marner, who’s wide open. Vasi drops down, expecting Reilly to shoot.
6) Vasi can’t see anything because Kerfoot is practically sitting on his head. Vasi guesses wrong and Marner has an empty cage to shoot into.

Yay! Wow, Marner! That’s all it took to break your 18-game goal drought, your linemates to give you a wide-open net, the oppositions 4th line and no one defending you!

You're turning into Mess...

 

[Antropovsky]

You're turning into Mess...................

Were you intentionally trying to be ironic when you picked your online name?

 

[notbias]

He plays on the first line to setup our Goals guy and he PKs.
It's not leaning on him. You make it sound like he's also playing D and backup goaltending.

That's his role as a setup man that can't shoot.

He's a part of an very ineffective Power play.

JT and MM16 to Power play 2.

You're probably right, that is why he is leading all forwards in ice time and is 2nd overall on our team.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

You're probably right, that is why he is leading all forwards in ice time and is 2nd overall on our team.

Well if players are paid based on ice time, am I allowed to put him on the third line with JT ?

PK time is not paid well.

Players who PK get paid less.

 

[Antropovsky]

you have to assume he registered a pretty high xG on it though

I mean he has 11 goals in 57 playoff games... thats your first clue his xg is probably pathetic.

 

[sunstersun]

6:24. I had to actually investigate this one. Another goal in a total blowout.

: 2:47 a 360 slap shot. Wow great job marner. Also 3:40. Another slap shot.


Ok what is my point? I think I captured every goal Marner has scored in the last 5 seasons / 6 series. These goals are ugly and in blowouts lol. He's averaged 1 goal a series the last 5 seasons.

AWFUL.



I don't know when this was, I assume before the Tampa series. I think?


NO GOALS IN THE HABS or Jackets series.

edit: That's every Marner goal since Boston 2018 series lmao. This is the results of that insane extension.

 

[ITM]

Right.

WN and AM are snipers.

MM is paid to be so amazing at what he does making plays that either can snipe a goal on the PP. It's not happening. The PP sucks.

Nobody wants to have this conversation in the media or here from the MM zombie nation crowd. They punted the other setup guy, Rielly and put OEL there and things looked better not great. Maybe they need to pull MM off the PP1.

100 game without a goal on the PP is actually insane.

I think the finer point is deferring to the best execution possible. If that means Marner, Reilly and Tavares move permanently to PP2, so be it.

I think we have a few players like Domi and Knies who should be given longer looks on PP1, to say nothing of OEL (I agree and am a big fan).

But I think Scotty Bowman's approach was best. You create an alert, hypervigilant squad by creating constancy through expected change. From that I think you get a group that's no longer dialed into the smaller cliques but into the system and the outcome.

 

[rumman]

Sign of the times. Even Marchand can't keep his own team's AAVs in check.

I doubt Willy would have been much cheaper at the end of the year really.

I'm not sure how I'd feel as a player making money for Rogers.

The 1978 Saturday night hockey I loved is gone now.

All good points, especially the last one…….

It`s this.

Unless Tre wants to `tinker around the edges` for the next 8 years.

You have to risk getting worse to build something better.




Hopefully Stolarz and Woll are due big raises.

Tre picked Nylander over Marner.

Like

 

[leafs in five]

tis news to me that you can embed reddit pages on HF

 

[thusk]

It's an overpay. How Much ? Not sure.

At the end of the day, WN88 can carry his weight in the playoffs more than any of the "Group of 5". He is an elite skater (fastest of the 5) and a great shooter. I am glad the Leafs extended him. I have been pro-Willy for 3 years before that I was not sold.


View attachment 919366

lol.

I could keep Marner (maybe) as I am moving on from JT. But I probably will keep the Marner cap space for McDavid.

EDM tanks this year and McJesus comes home. (94% kidding)

It`s this.

Unless Tre wants to `tinker around the edges` for the next 8 years.

You have to risk getting worse to build something better.




Hopefully Stolarz and Woll are due big raises.

Tre picked Nylander over Marner.

With a man advantage maybe, at 5v5 against top 2 line, he had been outplayed most of the time last 3 season...

A low angle shot who surprised the goalie and a goal down by 4 with 8 min left, its the 2 only goal scored by Nylander last 3 year against any top 2 opposite line at 5v5. If you add assist, that raise at maybe 3 or 4

Nobody played at their weigh in playoff and thats why leafs losing everytime

You can move the player you want, if the rest of group doesn't raise their game much more, the result will not change whatever wich move Tre doing.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Mitch Marner Playoff Stats unclutch.

Nobody played at their weigh in playoff and thats why leafs losing everytime

so, running it back (aka Signing Marner) is not a good idea ?

 

[Legion34]

Once again, nobody said anything about PP production being ignored. Only put in context. Even when factoring in ice time, Draisaitl is the 3rd best producer of PP points in the league over the past 3 years. And according to your metrics that you randomly decided are the only things ever considered, he should have gotten the highest cap hit percentage in history. But he didn't. Because context! Robertson was tied for 4th on the team in 5v5 goals per 60 over his ELC, not 2nd, and while everybody knows he has a great shot, you're ignoring the rest of the picture on purpose. Of course he didn't get paid like Nylander, because that's all he had, even that was only done in a tiny sample of sheltered minutes against bottom tier opposition, and he's a depth player being squeezed into a 1 year prove it contract instead of a star signing long-term. Your metrics don't explain his contract, and if anything, it really just shows the importance of the kind of context that I'm trying to use, and you want to ignore.

You haven't supported any of your claims, even though you are the one arguing against what actually happened, and proclaiming it to be wrong. You have only dismissed all countering evidence when it's not the very specific example of an unprecedented situation that you demand. Yes, we do know that PP ice time has a massive impact on raw PP production. That's why they have insanely high correlation. That's why, for example, 70% of the top-20 raw PP point seasons in the cap era are from just the first two seasons of the cap era, when PP time was spiking at its highest. You ignore that, and that contracts align better when PP time information is factored in. You see players that were compensated in a similar way as Marner, based on your own metrics, but you dismiss them to focus on one specific comparable that didn't even exist when Marner was signing. Among those two, you see a gap in player quality that's very aligned with the gap in contracts, and you can't fathom that they are related. You see contracts constantly impacted by context, but you can't fathom that context is considered here. You see contracts constantly accounting for opportunity-based discrepancies outside of a player's control specifically, and you can't fathom that it's a factor when a giant, obvious one exists.

If you want to ignore everything that isn't one cherry picked comparable and a couple cherry picked stats that you've arbitrarily decided on, that's your choice, but you're going to keep being confused by contracts and coming to wrong conclusions.

You write these giant paragraphs that don’t mean anything in reality. You still have no comparable that marners level of production as less than 30 goal 1 time 90 pt player was worth 13.4% of the over 6 years.

There is no precedent for this. You compared him to top of the league goal scorers from like 3 cbas Ago.

Heck Kane had a 30 goal and 88 pt season and got 10.6% the cap for 5 years. Very close to rantanens number of 11.3% over 6 years.

He had 76 goals 230 pts and a 25 goal 77 pt pace. Very comparable to Marner.

Who had 67 goals 224 pts and a 23 goal 76 pt pace.

The two closest comparisons to Marner (13.4% x6) were at 10.6% x5 and 11.3% x 6.

That would have been about right. He was a step above Willy and a step below Matthews.

You have zero comparables to Marner in contract history.

You have not provided one. You just write paragraphs about your opinions. Provide a player with his profile who got similar contract.

You can’t

Edit: the drai point is even worse.
Drai/matthews/mackinnon all got virtually identical cap percentages. Despite different term/performance and trophy cases (nominations vs wins). They had different “context” in terms of pp opportunities, usage and production with Matthews having the most goals and least points.

They are no where near as close comparably as Marner/rant/kane were but still got 15%aav

A 2.3-2.8% aav difference is massive. It’s a completely different class of player.

There is zero precedent for a 23goal 76 pt Rw to get 2.5% aav more than a 29 goal 74 pt winger and a 25g 77 pt winger.

None. And you know that. Because you aren’t showing it

 

[rumman]

View attachment 919384

Mitch Marner Playoff Stats unclutch.


so, running it back (aka Signing Marner) is not a good idea ?

We all know the answer to this question is a resounding NO……….

 

[notDatsyuk]

Tre also overpaid Nylander, one thing consistent with the Leafs is overpaying players………..

True, but not as much as he would likely have to pay Marner.

Best to stop the overpayments, and the sooner the better.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Last time I went to McDonald's the lady was bitchy so I asked her where my free smile was.

She said it was in the bag with the salt. I looked inside and there was neither smile or salt. When I told her there was nothing in the bag she gave me a huge smile and threw the salt at me.

I was a-salted.

Not as bad as Treliving got it from Moldaver, Gross, and soon Ferris. Marner is gonna get whatever he wants. It hurt too much taking it up the butt with Matthews and Nylander so now Treliving's all like "I'm not gonna fight this time just be gentle".

Unbuckles the belt and bends over the barrel once again.

I can only watch someone walk into a wall so many times before I reach the conclusion he hasn't got much going on upstairs. Knowing Treliving is gonna make Marner the highest paid winger in the league again I can only reach one conclusion. Treliving either doesn't know how to do his job properly, doesn't care to do his job properly, or a dangerous combination of both.

Just like the old lady at McDonald's.

 

[francis246]

This one’s for you, @thusk and @francis246:

Marner’s first playoff goal after an 18-game drought. yes, 18 straight playoff games without a goal. That’s quite the stretch for an $11 million forward, isn’t it?

Now watch this goal, Marners linemates do everything but put the puck in the empty net for him:

1) Leafs are up 3-0, so Tampa’s probably loosened up their defense to push for a goal.
2) Tampa 3rd or 4th line on ice.
3) Matthews, Kerfoot, and Reilly enter the Tampa zone with speed, while four Tampa players collapse around the goalie.
4) Kerfoot heads straight to Vasi’s crease.
5) Reilly drives to the net and dishes it to Marner, who’s wide open. Vasi drops down, expecting Reilly to shoot.
6) Vasi can’t see anything because Kerfoot is practically sitting on his head. Vasi guesses wrong and Marner has an empty cage to shoot into.

Yay! Wow, Marner! That’s all it took to break your 18-game goal drought, your linemates to give you a wide-open net, the oppositions 4th line and no one defending you!

Who the f*** cares? That’s my answer. A goal is a goal. Why are we qualitatively quantifying goals? This is why I think you’re the penultimate Marner hater. It’s never about finding common ground for you like it is for other posters. You clearly have something against Marner for whatever reason and it isn’t logical. It’s just hate to hate, you’re complaining about a goal he scored cause he didn’t score it the way you want. That’s honestly insane.

I don’t know what Marner has done to you or your family but you do come across more than anyone on this board as displaying irrational hate. And it’s a non stop, daily thing. It’s not healthy lol. For the time being he’s a leaf and I want the leafs to have success so I’m going to cheer for every last player on the roster (including Marner).

At least other people are bringing good arguments with reason. For example we have too much cap space invested in forwards so letting Marner walk makes sense in their heads and they can acknowledge he’s a good player.